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Zerovoltz

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About Zerovoltz

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  1. Buffalo had 183 Drives/offensive possesions in 2019. They only scored 1.66 points per drive. This tells you a couple things. 1. That many drives is a pretty high number. That's top 10 in the NFL. It means either the other team scored quickly and you had a high number of possesions, or your D was stout, got turnovers and got your O the ball alot. It would seem the latter to be the case here. This would be where the little things that a Comp% number being lower than average, would show up. ....and what I mean is, if you miss a couple of completions in a game that might have put your in field goal range, or converted a third down to keep a drive alive that might have ended up getting points....then you accumulate these over a season....it's a huge difference. Most NFL games are pretty close. You can usually point to a few big plays here or there that make a difference, but often, there are 2 or 3 little things that happen...drop, bad pass, bad route....whatever the case may be....where it doesn't seem big at the time, but what if you converted that 3rd down? What if you got into FG range instead of punting there? You have to make these little plays alot more often than not. And it's easier said than done......but this is where Allen and the offense have got to be better....squeezing more points out of each possesion, and you do that over a season by making a few more 3rd downs...kicking a few more FG's because you got in range...and finishing off 1 or 2 more drives a game with a 7 because you converted and kept a drive going instead of punting or taking the FG. I've heard a TON of arguments about Alex Smith being a good QB for KC, surrounded by weapons and good coaching. ...and for the most part that was true. But Alex Smith was NOT efficient at this stuff very often. He'd throw short on 3rd down or run short of the sticks....he'd not make the conversion in the red zone and we'd settle for 3 instead of finishing off with 7. It shows up in these drive numbers. KC has had FEWER drives each year since 2017, but have longer drives, each year, with more points per drive since going with Mahomes. Hill, Kelce, ...Hunt in 2017, but committee in 2018 and 2019. the Bills were 3rd in the NFL in 2018 with 193 drives. Good D giving the O the ball. The O was horribly inefficient. 1.39 points per drive...3rd worst. There was improvement in 2019. 183 drives, still very high, but 1.66 points per drive and 2:34 of possesion per drive. Those are still bottom 1/3 numbers for offenses. For the Bills to be an actual threat on offense....it's going to take a pretty big leap in EFFICIENCY. A big part of that is the passing game....not big plays so much as making the little ones way more frequently. Buffalo had plenty of big plays. It can happen. Need to keep trending upward...need Allen to make another good leap forward. Add another good weapon or 2.
  2. This whole thing isn't all that complicated. Allen and the Bills weren't efficient on offense in 2018. In 2019 there was improvement. They still aren't efficient enough. They need to continue to improve to be considered legitamate contenders. They have a lot of cap space. The draft is coming. The QB will be in his third year. Tom Brady is pretty much done. That is alot to be optimistic about. There are certainly legit reasons to be concerned, but 2020 is going to be an Allen led team with more seasoning and more parts added. If that doesn't translate to substantial improvements in offensive efficiency again in 2020, THEN you can start discussing how to move forward. You drafted a raw QB who was supposed to take YEARS to develop. He's developing....and its taking years. The roster needed alot of fixing and turnover. That also takes time. Many good moves to that end so far. You all are ON TRACK...you are on schedule.
  3. I am sure that 18 year old "child" is scarred for life. These monsters robbed him of his innocence! What a burden it must be on this "child" to have to recall this traumatic episode whenever he's conversing with other children in his peer group. I am sure this will haunt his dreams for as long as he lives. (Lucky bastard)
  4. ......The Titans had 272 total yards and their O scored 14 points on NE. They won the game because Brady is heading over that cliff and he had no real help at WR to help him overcome that. 14 points and 272 total yards = crushing loss VS KC. ....the Titans against balitmore.....Baltimore had the ball at the 36, 18, 31, and 16 of the Titans and those 4 possessions ended in ZERO points due to turnovers or failed 4th and inches. They also had failed 4th and inches at their own 45 and an INT at their own 31. The Ravens were moving the ball just fine. They kept either shooting themselves in the foot, or miraculously, couldn't convert 4th and very short. The Titans took advantage of those mistakes.....and Lamar, going into the game, only had a 60 QB rating when trailing by two scores. He is mortal when you make him pass to come back when down. The Titans are going to be crushed like little bugs this Sunday.
  5. I just read this entire thread......entertaining to say the least. Couple things here... 1. KC's D didn't play that bad. the first TD, blown coverage was AWFUL.....but Houston's other points were on a blocked punt, and a 6 yard short field after a muffed punt....their offense was mostly garbage time yards. KC also benefitted from short fields after the Houston punt fake and kick off fumble..but KC also had some LONG drives...one was 90 yards in the 3rd quarter. ....Also...Alex Smith had Andy Ried and Kelce and Hill...AND KAREEM HUNT leading the NFL in rushing and he couldn't touch Mahomes production....Yes, we have good weapons in KC....but Mahomes is amazing. .....and I have also seen nation media and fans alike with the continued stupid take of "keep Mahomes in the pocket" .....Do people not understand his QB rating is HIGHER when he stands in the pocket as opposed to running around? I think folks just see some of his throws on the run and assume you don't want him getting rolling out of the pocket.....not true. 2. I also love the lazy narrative about the Titans. New England held them to 14 points. It's not like they just stomped the Pats into the ground. Brady just has fallen off enough that they couldn't socre. The Ravens had drives end inside the 15, the 18, the 20 the 32, and the 35 and had 12 points to show for all that mess. The Titans weren't stopping any of that...The ravens had turnovers and TWO failures on 4th and 1 that ended drives. ....Prior to that Baltimore game..and it held true....when Lamar Jackson trails by 2 scores, his QB rating is 60. You make him have to pass to get back into a game, he becomes what people always thought he was....a really good athletic QB, that isn't a great passer. Ryan Tannehill has combined for 160 passing yards in two playoff games. KC is a 7.5 favorite to open. KC is going to CRUSH them like little bugs. 3. You might recall, KC lost to the Titans in tennesee this year. .....in that game, KC had a fumble returned for a TD, had a FG blocked late, then after TENN had scored with 30 seconds left, KC still got into FG position to tie the game, but the snap was botched. KC had 530 total yard to TEN's 371. Tannehill had 181 passing. They were 2-8 on thrid down conversions. KC won TOP 37 to 23. If you played that game 20 times, KC wins it 19 times. the Titans played their 1 game that they win because KC had some bad turnovers, bad special teams play....and damn near still had it anyhow. When you have Pat Mahomes. you are NOT out of a game, ever.
  6. THIS is it right here. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Brady, Lamar...doesn't matter the name at a given moment...the NFL made the TV revenue the moment they got the check from the networks.....the networks write that check because they believe they can sell advertising and make a profit. THAT is what determines the prime time schedules....or the flex games and all that. What matchup and game do the networks think will be the one that is compelling enough to draw eyeballs to the TV. They don't sell advertising in 5 year blocks like they do TV contracts. I suspect based on this that the Bills are going to get more "big" game exposure in 2020 because people want to see them. I'd expect at least 1 Monday night game, at least one Sunday night game, at least 1 Thursday night game and probalby a couple "National" CBS late games (probably on the road though) Would be really sweet if that KC / Buffalo game was a monday night game.
  7. Would have been cool to see a Chiefs - Bills matchup this week. I watched her the game. I thought it was a pretty even matchup with the Bills having the better team and coaches but the Texans with the better QB overall. This was Allen’s first go round in the Playoffs. I think he will remember it and learn from it. His 38% completion percentage in the 4th is something to think about. Need better weapons? Yeah. Maybe some better play calls? Maybe? Its something to build on for sure. Lots of good young talent and more to come this offseason. I’d be stoked about 2020.
  8. Instant Replay....brought to you by the United States Postal Service.....just like this replay....we are slow, AND we're bound to get it wrong too!
  9. What? Also....I pointed out where Smith came up short....and it wasn't in the stat line you get from the box score, and it wasn't QB Rating etc. ....Andy Ried didn't think Smith could win the big one....why would they move on from him and trade 2 firsts and 3rd for a guy alot of people were shaky about? Smith, with his 2 TD 0 INT performance also converted one 3rd down in he second half, and only 4 for the game total. This wasn't new. Smith ALWAYS valued ball security WAY more than risking a turnover to get conversions when you need them.
  10. From a box score perspective, you might say he did well...and that wouldn't be wrong. He did. He was absolutely dreadful in the red zone....ranked like 31st in 2017 in Red zone comp%, TD% it was awful. Also not good on 3rd and long. notorius for throwing short of sticks. His stats don't show his deficiencies.
  11. Good advice....I'm going to take a seat on the bench on this one. out.
  12. What would have to happen to change your mind Yav? You've hated Mahomes from the beginning. you predicted he'd suck....and since he doesn't suck, you insist he only does anything because of the roster around him. Alex Smith didn't do much with the same roster. You do know KC CRUSHED the Ravens this year without their starting LT, without Hill, and without a RB..... Is there a rating system you like that suggests Mahomes sucks?
  13. ....If you only read Josh Allen posts, you might think that's all I do here...and somehow, when I have postive things to say about Allen...no one remembers because those get lost among all the many other similar posts.....I've posted in several other topics here about football in general, or about stadiums, draft stuff...ETC. Someone mentioned in a post that i didn't need to have gone to the trouble of posting all that crap I posted, and just say what I really think of Allen. I've said it before....here it is again. 1. I thought Allen wouldn't work out in the NFL based on his college career and numbers. 2. I noted at the time, as many others have, that Allen would be the ultimate test case of analytics VS. old school scouting. 3. I stated more than once here, that I wanted Allen to prove the analytics people wrong because that pendulum has swung too far toward the data, and forgets we are dealing with humans, and you can't put a metric on certain human qualities. 4. Even as I have thought he wouldn't succeed...I have rooted for him. I like him. He is fun to watch play. I like the Bills. I spent time with Poncho Villa at the 2018 draft, posted pictures of that, bought my kid a Bills jersey. 5. While still enjoying Allen play, and marvelling at his athleticism, charisma and arm....I still remain concerned and skeptical of the passing overall. 6. I completely agree 100% Allen is your franchise QB. He's well established and entrenched as the man, as he should be. The debate now isn't if Allen is going to be a successful NFL starter. He is that right now today. The debate is will he continue to improve and become that guy that carries a team to a championship... I remain skeptical that unless he becomes a more efficient passer (note, I didn't use Comp%) then I am not sure that Allen, can carry a team to a championship. I don't think my skepticism is unfounded...many others here are as well....I do think it's highly unappreciated because I am an "outsider". I do understand that it's like when someone beats up your brother, you want to go kick their ass. But....you can beat up on your brother because he's family. .......noted...... Fortunatly for everyone...we get to watch and see what happens.
  14. .....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast? Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment? I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again. .....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop. I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time. I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting. Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen? I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here... No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history. If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything. You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not. ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it. I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.
  15. I did copy and paste it...we were discussing this about Drew Lock on a Denver forum I post on. It's part of a post I made there. Easier than retyping it. If you'd like to the numbers I charted from the several I did, I could post them......and what is so hard to understand about saying that MOST, but not ALL QB's adhere to this....and that I further suggest that Allen may yet have more progress to make.....I was suggesting that it is likely that he's about done developing just based on the idea most guys are after 16 games...but I was purposeful to suggest he could be like the guys who improved even more after 16 games. .....did you read what I wrote? I think just about everyone stopped once they got to the part where I suggest most guys are done with major improvements after 16 games and you all just assumed that I must have said Allen is done developing and didn't read any further.
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