The Tua Dilemma...

[Man with No Name]

Tua is a lot more dangerous than Jones. I would still worry about how fragile he is. If they can get him for 3 years, great. If they have to do 5, that is a kind of scary with all the guaranteed money guys have been getting lately. 

 

I still don't understand why there is a 40 million plus markets for guys like Jones and Carr. Those guys are not difference makers. I kind of think that is the area where Tua should slot in. 

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

They have to pay him.  They don't really have options.

If I’m them, I’d make sure to get my hands on one of the top 8 QBs in this draft.  Let Tua play out the 5th year.  Use the franchise tag 1-2 times if he stays healthy and plays well.  By that time. They’ll know what they have and if he’s worth it.  They’ll also know if their 2024 draft pick is worthy of a shot
 

 

[Orlando Tim]

I actually think it is a bit insulting to compare Tua to Jones. Jones had one above average year and Tua has had several along with his offense being explosive quite often. This is a top 12 QB in this league  but will never win games without a lot of talent around him

[Beast]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Obviously they don't have to re-sign him. The beauty of that offensive system is that it's not reliant on a great QB. Draft another QB and sign more great skill players.

You just gave out the super secret recipe for success on offense. If it was only so easy.

Edited January 3 by Beast

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

The Cowboys have Trey Lance on his rookie deal. I wouldn't be shocked if they move on from Dak tbh. 

After the year he just had, I think there’s a 0.0% chance Dak is gone.

[C.Biscuit97]

I’m superstitious so I really don’t want this thread to come back and bite us. And he doesn’t have the physical skills to scare you or ever be one of those dominant qbs that take over games by himself. But they are 32-18 with him and he has a 97.6 career qb rating. He is a good qb. 
 

obviously with him, health is a major issue. I bet he doesn’t sign the next cap setting qb contract and they find some middle ground. I’m sure he loves being in that system. 

35 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

I actually think it is a bit insulting to compare Tua to Jones. Jones had one above average year and Tua has had several along with his offense being explosive quite often. This is a top 12 QB in this league  but will never win games without a lot of talent around him

I heard a comedian say Jones plays like how racists think black qbs play. And it’s true. Can’t believe the Giants paid him when Tyrod is an upgrade over him, 

[stlbills13]

Tua is not an elite guy but the Dolphins didn't look very good last year when he was out. They have to pay him and get creative with the contract. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Dolphins are in a good spot having Tua on the 5th year option for next year. Let him play the rest of the this year out and see how he does next season. Tua is still an injury risk IMO. But if a couple things happen from this year to the end of the next season then I could see signing him to a $50 million contract. 

 

This year he needs to either beat the Bills next week or win a playoff game. And he needs to have at least one really good game out of his next two. Not just win because the other team beats themselves and the defense carries the Dolphins. 

 

Next season, he needs to miss at most one game due to injury and preferably not have another concussion. Stat wise have a similar year and lead the Dolphins to the playoffs. If he can do all of the above than I think he will be worth whatever he asks for. But do not pay him now! That would be foolish.

 

I'm not a believer in signing QB's to those Daniel Jones or even Kirk Cousins type deals. And Kirk Cousins is a really good QB in this league but when it comes down to it, does anyone see him as good enough to win a Super Bowl? You pay elite QB's. 

 

 

 

[Albany,n.y.]

The Dolphins are in the same situation that Baltimore was in with Lamar Jackson. They have to re-sign him.  The difference is that Tua most likely has an agent & will want things done sooner than Jackson.  Either way, Tua will get a long term deal within the next 2 years & remain the Dolphins QB.  This is nothing like the Daniel Jones situation where the guy didn't play well enough for his 5th year option to be picked up & the team made a mistake re-signing him.  

[dollars 2 donuts]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua".   It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below).

 

Tua is currently playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract at $9 million this year.  They exercised his 5th year option and next year he will be on the books for $23 million fully guaranteed (link below).  The question is what to do afterwards?

 

I don't think there's a good answer for the Dolphins, either overpay a QB who probably isn't good enough to get you to a Super Bowl, or head back to wandering in the QB desert hoping to get lucky.   

 

With the escalation in QB contracts the Dolphins will be looking at $50 million a year to keep Tua.  Look at the last several QB contracts yearly average (link below).  Where do you slot Tua in when it's his turn?

 

Burrow;  $55 million

Herbert; $52.5  million

Lamar;  $52 million

Hurts;  $51 million

Wilson;  $49 million

Murray;  $46.1 million

 

There's a quote in the thread which pretty closely mirrors my opinion on the situation with Tua; 

 

"We're in the Daniel Jones no-man's land where we're gonna have to sign him since there's no one else and we're not going to be able to do it on the cheap so we're gonna be investing a lot of money in one guy who we're not even really sure is the guy since he has yet to actually ball out in a big game"

 

 

https://finheaven.com/threads/do-not-resign-tua.381887/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, Virgil said:

Tua will get paid and it will be 50 mil per at least.  
 

Do I think he deserves it?  No.  But I also didn’t think Hurts did either. 

 

 

 I believe he may settle in under 50 million.  Maybe around where Josh is at 45, with some incentives.

 

 

 

 

[nedboy7]

This is where Peterman comes back into the picture. 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

Yup, a damn shame…

[mannc]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua".   It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below).

 

 

 

 

Resign or re-sign?  That little dash makes a big difference…

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

Nobody is hating him. And being a "pretty good QB" is exactly the problem. He is like Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott. Good enough to have a good regular season and get to the playoffs sometimes, but not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Not good enough to be able to put the team on his back and will them to victory.

 

Teams with a QB like that usually have to pay them, but then never end up going anywhere in the long run until they move on.

How do you know he isn't good enough to win a SuperBowl?

[78thealltimegreat]

Man Tua then Dak then Trevor…pushing Josh to the 13th highest paid QB for the next couple years. The fins don’t really have a choice but to sign Tua what are they going to do go through the draft process or maybe sign a Kurt Cousins? 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

They can move him on that 5th year option if they need to.  Only way that works is if you secure another QB though. Maybe you can sell the fanbase on baker or cousins, but a rookie is a lost season.  Maybe you could swing a trade for Murray - then move tua to get some picks back.  But that would only work if Arizona was picking at the top of the draft.  

 

The main issue is I'm not sure he can in good conscience even play on a 5th year option.  With the injury history you almost have to hold out for an extension.  

Edited January 3 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

I like Tua. He's a high character young man, on and off the field. He's not a bad QB, but he's not a great QB. It is similar to the Daniel Jones situation in a way, but I think Tua is the better passer of the two.

 

Two things stand out though. One, he is fragile. One more concussion could end his career. That scene against the Bengals last year was scary. And his lengthy injury history goes all the way back to college. Two, he seems to disappear in the moments you'd expect a $50M QB to show up. Tua has two actual game winning drives in his NFL career. Both came in 2021 and both were against the Jets. There is nothing about Tua that strikes fear into another team. Have you ever heard anyone, announcers, analysts, bobbleheads, opposing team's players, coaches, I mean anyone say, "We don't want to leave Tua too much time,"? I haven't. I've heard them say it about Mahomes, JA, Lamar, Hurts, Burrow, and even Stafford, but never Tua. 

 

He's a solid QB in the perfect offensive system for his skillset, but nothing about him is elite. The Dolphins will be forced to pay him unless they are fortunate enough to find a QB who outperforms his draft position. Can't say it will hurt my feelings when the Dolphins cut that check. 

 

He is a totally different tier to Daniel Jones. And he did bring them back to win with 2 minutes to go against Dallas recently, so that's something. His elite trait is his accuracy. He does throw a very accurate football, but he doesn't have a great arm and if you confuse him and take his primary read away he is prone to panic. He needs the system he is in to shine. But you have to pay him if you are the Dolphins, even accepting the injury risk. And then you have to make some difficult decisions elsewhere. You can't pay two corners and pay Phillips when he comes due as well as Chubb and pay Waddle when he comes due as well as Hill. They already have a tough decision looming on Wilkins this offseason. Franchise tag could be an option there. 

[Cray51]

Tua is a Kirk Cousins type of QB - in Tier not in play style.  He will be a starter in the league (barring injury) for another 5-6 years.  I could see him going to a team like Washington, or maybe Denver in a swap of QBs.  However, he doesn't have that gamebreaker ability that the top QBs have.

 

I expect Miami will sign him to a 5-7 year deal with outs at year 3.  The problem for them is the same problem every team faces - they have other talent that will need contracts.  Waddle, Jalen Phillips, etc.  Will be interesting to see what happens to the team over the next few years.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

After the year he just had, I think there’s a 0.0% chance Dak is gone.

Dak is similar to Kirk Cousins, great stats but he doesn't take his team further. To me that's not a guy you want to keep long term. Move on. 

[Greybeard]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

Nobody is hating him. And being a "pretty good QB" is exactly the problem. He is like Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott. Good enough to have a good regular season and get to the playoffs sometimes, but not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Not good enough to be able to put the team on his back and will them to victory.

 

Teams with a QB like that usually have to pay them, but then never end up going anywhere in the long run until they move on.

 

      Sounds like you are describing Jim Kelly.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Dak is similar to Kirk Cousins, great stats but he doesn't take his team further. To me that's not a guy you want to keep long term. Move on. 

You can say the same thing about every qb until they win one. Dak had a 101 rating last postseason. 

 

I do think the Cowboys are frauds and fold under pressure but they have been a consistent playoff team with him. Why should a fanbase just throw away going to the playoffs every year? 

[stuvian]

Tua keeps winning games and is a high character leader. I think the closest comparison is Baker Mayfield.

[Max Fischer]

Miami will sign Tua as they have no other choice. I don't think Tua is a "great" QB but he's "pretty good" and there aren't many of those. 

[The Jokeman]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You can say the same thing about every qb until they win one. Dak had a 101 rating last postseason. 

 

I do think the Cowboys are frauds and fold under pressure but they have been a consistent playoff team with him. Why should a fanbase just throw away going to the playoffs every year? 

You either have to bottom out or getting a better QB in most cases to advance, see the Chiefs pre Mahomes. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua".   It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below).

 

Tua is currently playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract at $9 million this year.  They exercised his 5th year option and next year he will be on the books for $23 million fully guaranteed (link below).  The question is what to do afterwards?

 

I don't think there's a good answer for the Dolphins, either overpay a QB who probably isn't good enough to get you to a Super Bowl, or head back to wandering in the QB desert hoping to get lucky.   

 

With the escalation in QB contracts the Dolphins will be looking at $50 million a year to keep Tua.  Look at the last several QB contracts yearly average (link below).  Where do you slot Tua in when it's his turn?

 

Burrow;  $55 million

Herbert; $52.5  million

Lamar;  $52 million

Hurts;  $51 million

Wilson;  $49 million

Murray;  $46.1 million

 

There's a quote in the thread which pretty closely mirrors my opinion on the situation with Tua; 

 

"We're in the Daniel Jones no-man's land where we're gonna have to sign him since there's no one else and we're not going to be able to do it on the cheap so we're gonna be investing a lot of money in one guy who we're not even really sure is the guy since he has yet to actually ball out in a big game"

 

 

https://finheaven.com/threads/do-not-resign-tua.381887/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

 

 

 

 

Tua is leading the league in passing yards while being 8th in attempts.  On a per-game basis he was 12th last year.

 

Yes, they're going to re-sign him and he's going to get paid.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

The thing is though, Miami is $50m OVER the Cap now and MANY Dolphins contracts are expiring after the season. Compound this with a near completely bare cupboard for Draft picks due to their ‘All In To Beat Buffalo’ mantra and the end of this desperate and hopeful choice will reap zero rewards if we win Sunday. We’re known to bash Beane for filling our roster with ‘good not great’ players and being patient with their development, but our scheme is effective in today’s NFL. The Dolphins will field a much less talented roster next year and beyond. Re-Signing ‘Turnaballova’ will just make them our beotch even longer. They chose to go All In and they’re gonna pay the Piper for it. Jets giving away the farm for their egomaniac, flighty and washed up QB has them in the same boat with no oars. If we can win Sunday night, we COULD see a Division dominance that rivals Brady’s NE* days.

 

I didnt say it was good for them.  I just said they don't have options.  Extending Tua will probably actually help them with their cap next season.  They are still going to lose players and not be as good though.  

[C.Biscuit97]

24 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

You either have to bottom out or getting a better QB in most cases to advance, see the Chiefs pre Mahomes. 

Dak is millions better than any of the Chiefs qbs before Mahomes. He’s a top 10 qb. He has his flaws but just throwing that away is stupid. Could you imagine us thinking like that pre Allen? 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua".   It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below).

 

Tua is currently playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract at $9 million this year.  They exercised his 5th year option and next year he will be on the books for $23 million fully guaranteed (link below).  The question is what to do afterwards?

 

I don't think there's a good answer for the Dolphins, either overpay a QB who probably isn't good enough to get you to a Super Bowl, or head back to wandering in the QB desert hoping to get lucky.   

 

With the escalation in QB contracts the Dolphins will be looking at $50 million a year to keep Tua.  Look at the last several QB contracts yearly average (link below).  Where do you slot Tua in when it's his turn?

 

Burrow;  $55 million

Herbert; $52.5  million

Lamar;  $52 million

Hurts;  $51 million

Wilson;  $49 million

Murray;  $46.1 million

 

There's a quote in the thread which pretty closely mirrors my opinion on the situation with Tua; 

 

"We're in the Daniel Jones no-man's land where we're gonna have to sign him since there's no one else and we're not going to be able to do it on the cheap so we're gonna be investing a lot of money in one guy who we're not even really sure is the guy since he has yet to actually ball out in a big game"

 

 

https://finheaven.com/threads/do-not-resign-tua.381887/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

 

 

 

They’d be idiotic not to sign Tua. He’s the best QB they’ve had since Chad Pennington. If Derek Carr can get 100 mill then Tua definitely should. 

[Captain Hindsight]

9 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Lots of needless Tua hate. He's a pretty good QB. And seems like a nice kid too. Hope he gets his.

No hate, Tua is good. They can win with him. It just seems like something is missing from his game. If he gets off script, he really struggles

 

Games against the Titans, Bills and Ravens show what happens if the D can disrupt him

[TheFunPolice]

PAY THE MAN!

 

The only dilemma should be whether Miami can fit all $250 million into one Brinks truck or if they'll need two.

 

It's not whether he deserves it. WE deserve it! Miami is a Pro Bowl roster because the QB plays for peanuts. Let's see them have to work with rookies and spare parts on offense like the other teams who have paid QBs. 

[Einstein]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

They have to pay him.  They don't really have options.

 

I get what you’re saying (you will marry the ugly bride because you see no beautiful women on your horizon), but football teams always have the option to not do something stupid.

 

The Giants had the option to not sign Daniel Jones. Browns had the option to not trade for Deshaun Watson. etc.

 

I would rather enter the unknown than be chained to an mediocre guy.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

I hope they pay him.

 

But I wouldn't.

 

He's nothing without elite playmakers.

 

If I were with Miami I'd let him play out the 5th year option.   Draft his replacement in this draft.

 

He's meek,  he won't make any waves thru the process.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why should a fanbase just throw away going to the playoffs every year? 

 

Because the point of the league is not to make the playoffs. 

 

I know there are some who believe “just make the playoffs every year and hope you get hot”. And I get the reasoning. But Nate Peterman (just to make up an example), is never winning you a Super Bowl, no matter how many playoff chances you give him. Nor is Tyrod Taylor. etc etc etc.

 

 

So that logic doesn’t fly for me. 

[Success]

This wouldn't be a dilemma if I was a Phins fan - I remember the drought, and how hard it is to find a good QB.

 

And Tua is a good QB.  They'll overpay a bit, but you sometimes have to at that position.  

 

[machine gun kelly]

I hope they sign Tua. The best thing for the Bills.  Josh will beat his ars all day long for the next decade.

[Augie]

I was pretty confident he would be broken by now. Maybe he is, we’ll see more Sunday night. I’m surprised he made it this far, to be honest. 

[LabattBlue]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

He's nothing without elite playmakers.

Isn’t that true for all QB’s?

[Beast]

I actually hate that Tua is the QB of the Dolphins. I hope they let him go. There may not be, IMO, a more likable opposing player. 

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He's nothing without elite playmakers.

 

So, I guess you’ll be fine if the Bills don’t bring in WR’s this coming off-season, right?

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 1/3/2024 at 11:14 AM, machine gun kelly said:

I hope they sign Tua. The best thing for the Bills.  Josh will beat his ars all day long for the next decade.

 

 

Tua is a very good QB and I have stated this before.  However, he is not a great QB and his problem is HE ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY NEEDS THE SUPPORTING CAST.  

 

This is NOT a QB who can do it on his own.  

 

 

Edited January 5 by dollars 2 donuts

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, Beast said:

So, I guess you’ll be fine if the Bills don’t bring in WR’s this coming off-season, right?

 

 

Ok so you are saying Tua is as good as Patrick Mahomes?    Your ignorance is duly noted.