IF the 49ers would take a 4th or later for Trey Lance, would you do it?

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Legit question…How is worst case scenario him being a solid backup?  
 

That’s the best case scenario.  The team that invested 3 first round picks in him didn’t think he was a solid backup and chose journeyman Sam Darnold over him as the backup.

 

He has not shown anything yet to suggest he can even be a solid backup.  So worst case is that we waste a 4th round pick on him and he is worse than what we have and he is cut.  Best case is he is a solid backup behind Allen, something he’s get to prove and just failed to achieve with the team that drafted him and invested a ton of draft capital in him.  
 

 

Fair question: I should have rephrased to “improved backup situation.” I do not believe that he could be worse than Allen/Barkley. I just don’t. I think they’re scrubs. If he is “not very good” it’s an improvement. His talent / style give him a floor as a decent backup IMO.

 

Remember we wasted a 5th on Fromm and he had NO CHANCE to even be a decent backup. 

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

a wonderlic exam doesn't determine if you can play QB in the NFL

No kidding.

buffaloboyinATL seemed to question Lance’s ability to run Shanahan’s offense because “it may require a more cerebral QB, like Purdy and Darnold, to run it effectively.” You responded with the following:
“Then Lynch and Shanahan should have know this before giving up so much to draft him. “

All I did was mention they did their homework with regard to Lance being as cerebral or not as Purdy or Darnold. Part of that evaluation is Wonderlic, along with other testing and from what I’ve read, Lance is on par with Purdy when it comes to the cerebral part of his game. Never said/implied it would lead to success in the NFL for Lance or anyone with a good wonderlic test score. Maybe you missed my point because my post was poorly worded. Everyone knows wonderlic is not the determining factor in whether a person can play QB and be successful. Right?

[Buffalo716]

From an athletic standpoint... Still super intriguing

 

But the fact he's getting buried by the team that mortgage its future for him? Looks bleak 

 

He'll probably be out of the league in 3 years

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, Special K said:

If a team is willing to get rid of a guy that they traded three first round picks for, what does that tell you about his abilities?

 

or their ability to judge talent.

[Beast]

Why would we want some scrub?

 

It seems the only QB in the world that can’t experience success with the 49ers offense is Lance.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Beast

[RobbRiddick]

But then how would we pay Jonathan Taylor ?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

It is possible that part of why he "is not good" is because of the offense that Shanahan runs.  It may require a more cerebral QB, like Purdy and Darnold, to run it effectively.  This does not mean that Lance couldn't be successful in a different system.  If the price was low enough, and we could work out the contract to have him as a backup for a couple of years, it might be worth a look.  

LOL @ calling Sam Darnold a cerebral QB

[Mike in Horseheads]

I'd give them a 6th or 7th, not sure what the contract status is though re the cap

[Mr. WEO]

How about Chad Kelly?

[JK Fan]

6 hours ago, Special K said:

If a team is willing to get rid of a guy that they traded three first round picks for, what does that tell you about his abilities?

Somebody with sense.  All of the Mafia that want him, really the guy is being replaced by a 7th round pick and SD who has bounced around since being picked.  He obviously does not have what it takes to be a starter, or a backup in this league.

[MJS]

We are trading draft capital for busted QB's? Why would we do that?

[Nester]

how many games has even played in the last 4 years? 

2 in the NFL 

 

In college two in 2018, 16 in 2019 and one in 2020.

 

3 games in 3 years?  HARD PASS

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

How about Chad Kelly?

 

Wait to they are signing players to practice squad.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair question: I should have rephrased to “improved backup situation.” I do not believe that he could be worse than Allen/Barkley. I just don’t. I think they’re scrubs. If he is “not very good” it’s an improvement. His talent / style give him a floor as a decent backup IMO.

 

Remember we wasted a 5th on Fromm and he had NO CHANCE to even be a decent backup. 

No disagreement that our backups aren’t much better likely, but I still would not want to spend a 4th to get someone who couldnt beat out Sam Darnold as the backup for the team that spent 3 first round picks on him.  
 

All for it if he’s cut though where we aren’t risking a good draft pick on him.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

He has skills, but he’s still extremely raw and I would consider him a “project”.  The Bills certainly don’t need a project quarterback as #17’s understudy. 

[QCity]

Miami is an intriguing destination for him. McDaniel was his OC in SF 2021 and with Tua's injury history you would have to think he gets playing time.

[Albany,n.y.]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I believe that the roster bonus for this year has been paid already, but the one next season kills any thought of the deal. No way would I take on that guarantee. Even if SF ate that too, I'm still not interested. Because if Kyle Shanahan can't make anything out of him, then I have zero faith that Dorsey can. Also Sam Darnold just beat him out for QB2. SMH. So even though Barkley is hot garbage and Kyle Allen is just a tad better than hot garbage, I'll pass.

You're right.  There's an article in The Athletic that says the roster bonus was due at the beginning of camp. The problem for a team trading for his contract still owes him $5.3 million next year-A lot of $ to gamble on turning around a guy who hasn't done anything of note yet & would be a free agent at the end of next season (unless he is thrust into the starting job, lights it up & the team picks up his 5th year option)  https://theathletic.com/4800908/2023/08/24/trey-lance-49ers-options-trade-release/

 

While the 49ers would incur a dead-money hit of $8.4 million in 2023, they’d clear $940,000 in salary-cap room by offloading Lance’s contract, which is fully guaranteed because he was a first-round pick. They’ve already paid Lance a $2.82 million roster bonus, which was due at the start of training camp, so a new team would owe him only that $940,000 base salary for this season.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Albany,n.y.

[maddenboy]

51 minutes ago, QCity said:

Miami is an intriguing destination for him. McDaniel was his OC in SF 2021 and with Tua's injury history you would have to think he gets playing time.

which bears watching

 

if you dont hear a peep about Miami being interested, that speaks volumes.

 

[BillsNutHawaii]

A few thoughts:

 

- SF has an excellent player development program, ala the "best version of yourself" program the Bills have.  If SF couldn't squeeze more out of him, I would be very suspicious. This is not the AZ Cardinals program - see Andy Isabella - who I have high hopes for and seems to have been in less than an ideal situation with the team that drafted him.

 

- I definitely see the temptation for trying to identify how Buffalo can acquire Trey Lance - with ideal compensation (Trade package + contract, re-worked with extension?).  There might be a way and it should be explored.  

 

- The talent is still there, (Lance isn't underperforming due to injuries he hasn't been able to recover from).  So is it lack of work ethic?  Or lack of intellect, (Does he not have the "brains" to command an offense in the NFL)?  This is where our GM needs his sources from "Deep within" to find out what the real deal is here.  

 

- Personally, I'm a big believer in "cultural fit" similar to what our GM did to identify Josh Allen as a great fit for Buffalo.  I just knew Sam Darnold wouldn't work with the NY Jets, and he seems to be much better off in SF.  Perhaps the same thing could be said about Trey Lance.  From a quick wikipedia read, it says Trey is from a small town in Minnesota and of course college in North Dakota - from the outside looking in, he seems like a small town type of guy, from a region maybe even colder than Western NY - would he be a better fit in Buffalo - vice SF? Thoughts?

[1ManRaid]

I find it cute you added "would give higher than a 4th" as an option.  I find it disgusting someone actually picked it...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

No. He’s got like a $9 million cap hit.

[BillsFanForever19]

He's going to end up released. No one's going to take on that contract. Especially at this point. Give him a call when that happens and see if he'll take the gig. Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley are an albatross. At least Lance has a cannon and great mobility like Josh and you don't have to alter the playbook as much.

 

But I have to assume he ends up somewhere like Atlanta or Washington that has a questionable starter. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Orlando Tim]

Trey Lance would be fine if we gave up a 7th rounder and were able to pay league minimum. If Shanahan can't get anything out of him I doubt anyone is making him great.

[Watkins101]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I would if I could but it would be contingent on a 2 year extension (acceptable base with lots of upside). Worst case scenario you have a solid backup for a few years. If he plays and succeeds, you have an elite trade chip. I think that it raises the floor on this team (he is better than Kyle Allen and Barkley). It potentially raises the ceiling if he shows out and they trade him.

There is no way that adding Tre Lance improves the ceiling of this team. The ceiling of this team requires a healthy Josh Allen, in which case Tre wouldn’t play.

[Artful Dodger]

If Allen goes down, the season is lost anyway.  What's the point? 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

There is no way that adding Tre Lance improves the ceiling of this team. The ceiling of this team requires a healthy Josh Allen, in which case Tre wouldn’t play.

Well of course!! Lol, who said that it raises the ceiling? Your ceiling is the Super Bowl. It raises the floor!!
 

If Josh were to miss a month, “could you go 2-2?” That is what you are trying to get to. I believe that it is more likely with Lance than Allen/Barkley. You also get the bonus, if he looks good in those games, of one of the best trade chips in football. 

5 hours ago, Artful Dodger said:

If Allen goes down, the season is lost anyway.  What's the point? 

It isn’t about a season!!!! Every team is done if their QB misses the year. It is about if your QB misses a week or month. 

[GunnerBill]

I'm not sure I would for Buffalo but there are teams for whom I absolutely would. I just think the thing with Lance is he hasn't played enough football. He hasn't seen enough football from right there in the crossfire. He started 17 games in college and 4 in the pros. The talent level is still there but he doesn't have any of the nous or nuance you need because he has had no chance to learn it. If I was a team who expect to suck this year - Washington or Atlanta maybe - I'd trade for Lance. And I'd commit myself to no matter what starting him for 17 games (as long as he is healthy). 

 

I don't think signing him to backup and sit and not play football again is the answer for him or give you a good shot of him playing at the level required if he gets out there. 

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

There is no way that adding Tre Lance improves the ceiling of this team. The ceiling of this team requires a healthy Josh Allen, in which case Tre wouldn’t play.

 

Acquiring a backup OLer better than any of the backups currently on the roster would raise the ceiling of this team significantly more than acquiring a QB without NFL experience as a backup QB.

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Well of course!! Lol, who said that it raises the ceiling? Your ceiling is the Super Bowl. It raises the floor!!
 

If Josh were to miss a month, “could you go 2-2?” That is what you are trying to get to. I believe that it is more likely with Lance than Allen/Barkley. You also get the bonus, if he looks good in those games, of one of the best trade chips in football. 

It isn’t about a season!!!! Every team is done if their QB misses the year. It is about if your QB misses a week or month. 

 

Other than being the #3 draft pick a couple of years ago, what about Lance makes you think that he can be more effective coming in for Josh Allen than Barkley or even Kyle Allen?  Lance hasn't played enough in the NFL for anybody outside of the 49ers organization to have real insight into his potential as an NFL QB -- and SF's actions suggest they don't think he has much.

[ddaryl]

16 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

well, we need a real QB2 from somewhere because we have a couple QB3's on the roster right now 

 

Bringing in Lance would just make a thruple of #3s on the roster

[BillsShredder83]

I just dont understand how last year he was good enough to start. He got hurt 2nd Q of game 2, game 1  was an absolute monsoon if im remembering right. so he hasnt really played, no matter how u slice it major, major scouting problems. No way he should be behind darnold. u cant give up what they gave up for him and not find a way to get him in the game. develop him in practice, hell, create an interesting run option package to get him on the field

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Acquiring a backup OLer better than any of the backups currently on the roster would raise the ceiling of this team significantly more than acquiring a QB without NFL experience as a backup QB.

 

 

Other than being the #3 draft pick a couple of years ago, what about Lance makes you think that he can be more effective coming in for Josh Allen than Barkley or even Kyle Allen?  Lance hasn't played enough in the NFL for anybody outside of the 49ers organization to have real insight into his potential as an NFL QB -- and SF's actions suggest they don't think he has much.

I’ve seen enough of Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley to not believe that they are more than scrubs. Lance has elite tools and basically no experience. I KNOW that they can’t play.
 

If we had Keenum or Trubisky still, I wouldn’t care for Lance. I’d buy the lottery ticket because I believe that if Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley and Trey Lance each started that Lance would have the best results. The bar is VERY low IMO with the current guys. It’s as bad of a backup situation as there is in the league. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

No. He’s got like a $9 million cap hit.

 

A lot of that is signing bonus though.  I highlighted the things an acquiring team *might* be on the hook for.  For 2023 you def pay the base salary as thats game checks (number on the left).  The 2.8M is a roster bonus for camp so i assume thats paid out already by SF.  So you would be getting him my GUESS is for 2yr at like 6.2M.  

 

[LeGOATski]

No, I feel like the potential of one of those picks being a great player is higher than Lance's potential to be a great player. Shanahan's system is one of the easiest to play QB in. He makes guys like Nick Mullens look like all pros. Considering this, it's pretty amazing Lance has fallen so far.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I just dont understand how last year he was good enough to start. He got hurt 2nd Q of game 2, game 1  was an absolute monsoon if im remembering right. so he hasnt really played, no matter how u slice it major, major scouting problems. No way he should be behind darnold. u cant give up what they gave up for him and not find a way to get him in the game. develop him in practice, hell, create an interesting run option package to get him on the field

 

The first game was an absolute mess.  Looking at the numbers too... 3 drops on 28 pass attempts.  2 by deebo, who also lost a fumble in the red zone.  Not as if his guys did him a ton of favors in that one.  Lance had 13 carries on the game, and only 4 are recorded as scrambles so its pretty clear they were trying to just run the ball.  

[Punching Bag]

15 hours ago, BillsNutHawaii said:

- Personally, I'm a big believer in "cultural fit" similar to what our GM did to identify Josh Allen as a great fit for Buffalo.  I just knew Sam Darnold wouldn't work with the NY Jets, and he seems to be much better off in SF.  Perhaps the same thing could be said about Trey Lance.  From a quick wikipedia read, it says Trey is from a small town in Minnesota and of course college in North Dakota - from the outside looking in, he seems like a small town type of guy, from a region maybe even colder than Western NY - would he be a better fit in Buffalo - vice SF? Thoughts?

 

Better fit un Green Bay although I hope my 2nd team does not pick him up except as PS player.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'd rather go after Case Keenam, think he could be had as is #3 on the Texans.  Maybe could have the distinction of twice being traded for a 7th round pick.

 

He'd hit the ground running at least in knowledge of the playbook.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve seen enough of Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley to not believe that they are more than scrubs. Lance has elite tools and basically no experience. I KNOW that they can’t play.
 

If we had Keenum or Trubisky still, I wouldn’t care for Lance. I’d buy the lottery ticket because I believe that if Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley and Trey Lance each started that Lance would have the best results. The bar is VERY low IMO with the current guys. It’s as bad of a backup situation as there is in the league. 

Trey Lance wishes he had Matt Barkley’s 2018 Jets game under his belt.

[billsfan89]

I wouldn’t do it, Lance’s cap hit is fairly high for a backup Qb, I don’t know how his cap hit would change if traded (but the Bills can’t afford a project backup QB with a large cap hit) so unless the Niners are willing to eat most of his cap the trade just doesn’t make sense for the Bills.

23 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'd rather go after Case Keenam, think he could be had as is #3 on the Texans.  Maybe could have the distinction of twice being traded for a 7th round pick.

 

He'd hit the ground running at least in knowledge of the playbook.

At that point I would rather go with Kyle Allen, It’s not like Keenam did all that much while here anyway 

[Virgil]

Absolutely not with that contract.  I'm still pulling for Baker or Darnold to be Josh's long term backup after this season 😁

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

27 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I wouldn’t do it, Lance’s cap hit is fairly high for a backup Qb, I don’t know how his cap hit would change if traded (but the Bills can’t afford a project backup QB with a large cap hit) so unless the Niners are willing to eat most of his cap the trade just doesn’t make sense for the Bills.

At that point I would rather go with Kyle Allen, It’s not like Keenam did all that much while here anyway 

 

Agree, but seems like the area K Allen is struggling the most with is understanding the playbook from what has been published.  Think Kennan may be ahead there??