Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.

[Big Turk]

Just now, Dablitzkrieg said:

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020?  That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there.  Why are you so willing to ignore that??

You’re talking about a handful of games….  A handful of games doesn’t “prove” jack

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not wins-losses I am talking about...stats are significantly better on the road. 5% higher completion percentage in his career, passer rating 9 points higher, more TDs, fewer INTs, etc.

Well, there hasn't been a "home field advantage" in the NFL for several years now, and not just because of COVID.

 

That whole thing about crowd noise on the road is proving to be a bit of a myth, at least lately.

 

 

 

 

[RiotAct]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

last year specifically had some pretty terrible weather games.  

 

Pittsburgh game wasn't great.

Houston was a downpour to start.  

NE was a joke with that wind.  

Jets game was windy.

Atlanta and Carolina were pretty lousy weather wise.  

 

Like 6/9 games had pretty minus weather.  

It rained steadily through much of that Houston game, IIRC. And, there wasn’t any reason to pass at all in the 4th quarter.

[Neo]

I’d be interested in seeing Allen vs the opposing QB, home and away.  Controlling for stadium and weather.  Gut (Im no genius) says he’s similarly better vs opposition.

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Why?  It is a completely valid observation backed by clear statistical evidence.

Respectfully, I don’t think it is the right experimental design.   Absurd example …. Highmark has alligators and quicksand, played in monsoons.  Road games are domes with perfect turf.   The key question:  is he similarly better, regardless of venue?

Edited May 17, 2022 by Neo

[billybrew1]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

To some degree sure...but the season with no fans where the splits were almost the same suggest there is more at play, especially considering the season before and after were tilted in favor of road splits.

You’d have to check the weather in every game. Maybe the weather was mild for the most when he played without a crowd? The sample size is very small which permits error….

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Oh man.  
 

Do you really think Josh allen is worse playing at home because he’s too hyped? 
 

do you REALLY believe this to be true?

 

 

[without a drought]

Now the Bills need another QB for home games, maybe he can also hold for field goals. 

[Putin]

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

Crowd noise.

Yes we need more crowd noise at home especially when he’s on 3rd and long !!! 

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I didn't say I was worried...more curious as to the why behind it, and No, I don't believe it can be 100% explained by the weather as some seem so eager to do.

 

Why?  
 

You have been shown multiple time that the weather in 2020 for home games was significantly better than 2019 or 2021 - especially in relation to wind and rain.  We are talking about small, limited numbers  from 1 year to the next - less than 8 games worth of data.

 

The weather in 1 game - say NE alone had 5% of his throws with a 50% completion percentage.  If you replace that 1 game where weather was a huge factor and replace it with a nice weather game like NO the week before - his total season completion percentage goes up by 2% and his home completion percentage goes up by over 3%.

 

Just 1 bad weather game accounts for 3% of the difference and there were 4 games that could be looked at.

 

Weather 100% accounts for the difference - anything else is you just trying to insert your point of view into it.

 

Josh has repeatedly said that warm weather and sunny dry conditions have helped him feel the ball and many of his best days are in those conditions.

 

Cold, windy, wet days account for some of his worse days.  
 

Weather is the biggest factor.

 

 

[CA OC Bills Fan]

So, the OP said "splits don't lie". I have no idea what splits is but I get his point. An old saying goes, "figures don't lie but liers can figure." Or, put another way, just looking at the numbers can allow you to draw the wrong conclusion. As many have pointed out, last year was an especially bad weather year for home games. Yes, much worse than 2020 (or so it seemed but since I was all of last year's home games and sitting on a couch in 2020...). In addition, the skill of the opposing defense makes a difference, the score at the time. I've seen some stories that compared various team's aggressiveness by only looking at when the score was within ten points and excluding the last two minutes of each half since blowouts and two minute drills affect play calling. 

 

One way to at least partially (not completely true as teams have injuries, get better over the course of the season, etc.) is how has he done against the same opponent in home vs. away games. Each year, there are three teams he plays both at home and away. Not looking anything up or doing any analysis (just what I said you can't do to draw any conclusions), I kind of remember him playing much better at home against Miami than away, pretty awesome both times against the Jets, and fantastic in the two non-hurricane games against the Pattsies. So, on whole, mostly a push.

 

Before making any conclusion that "Allen is better on the road than at home", you would need to do a full analysis. Specifically, either include in your model or minimize all non-controlled variables (which is almost everything in a football game). We can easily assume that both weather and the defense are two factors that can affect QA performance. The other issue is when you say that he's "significantly better", that's implying a statistical difference, not just eyeballing two sets of averages and saying, "yup, he sucks at home." Not difficult to do, and extremely easy using software, but I'm way too lazy to type in all of the information you gave. All data has a confidence interval, meaning, "with 95% confidence JA has a QA rating between x and y when playing at home and between W and Z when playing on the road." If those two intervals don't overlap, there is a statistically significant difference between how he plays at home vs. away.

 

You're welcome for today's statistics lecture.

[frogger]

Weather has a part, but also he has an attitude about him, where he want to go into there home and take a 💩 and leave.  He likes being the bad guy.

[Mike in Horseheads]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

You’re talking about a handful of games….  A handful of games doesn’t “prove” jack

And we know that Jack sucks... Opps wrong sport

Edited May 17, 2022 by Mike in Horseheads

[Cray51]

I'd say more than anything its weather.

 

Yards are down when he plays at home.  That's likely due to the wind causing more run heavy offenses.  Singletary had 160 more attempts last year at home compared to on the road.

 

Look at Josh's running splits - averages the same yards per rush.  Completion % is down due to playbook and needing to throw less.  318 attempts in 8 games on the road vs. 254 at home (in same # of games).  Yards per attempt down .6 as well. 

 

Go figure, its challenging to throw in Buffalo - but we have a QB who can still be good when doing so, and can run whenever he needs.

[Augie]

28 minutes ago, Putin said:

Yes we need more crowd noise at home especially when he’s on 3rd and long !!! 

 

You kid (I hope), but at the Titans game IN NASHVILLE I was surprised how loud it was when we were on offense since it felt like it was more Bills fans than Titans fans. I realize the entire row behind me is in Bills gear making as much noise as possible when we were on offense, especially 3rd downs. We had to have a little talk. They thought just making noise was the point. Ugh…..

 

That was the same crowd of people with one guy who started patting me on the head whenever anything good happened. He was more drunk than myself, and I’m pretty easy going. Late in the game he said “Hey! Your hair is all wet!”. I said “I know, you keep spilling beer on me!”.  😂

 

As for Josh home and away, it’s not that simple. You have to account for weather first and most obviously. We have had some INSANE weather games recently, but there are so many other factors. The quality of the opponent, the game situation (up or down early?), who has more injuries on either side of the ball (did we have a couple WR hurt at home, or are they missing some DB’s on the road?), game plan (they are the worst run defense in the league), etc. Every game is unique and I think it’s far too soon to draw any conclusions. Hopefully Sugar High Josh (it’s a real thing to some degree IMO) learns to control that energy and use it in a productive way.  

 

 

.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Augie

[NobesBLO13]

Well it’s settled, only play well enough for a wild card. Nothing but road playoff games. Someone get word to McDermott.

[CoudyBills]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

Yep, let's ***** cut him.  He sucks

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

Crowd noise.

 

He is correct.  Bills fans sometimes are loud at wrong time specifically when Bills are on offense.

[WhoTom]

Even if you ran a controlled study, where the only difference was home vs away, a five-percent variance would not be statistically significant, nor is a thirty-game sample size.  In this study, with its small sample size and lack of control over other factors (like the weather, the opponent, team injuries, etc.), a five-percent variation can easily be explained by one or more of those extraneous variables.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by WhoTom

[Fred Slacks]

I honestly don't care about that statistic as much as Allen vs all other visiting QB's during that span.  The reality is whether plays a huge factor.  If Josh's stats are better than the visiting QB's over that span then that is what matters to me.  IF you watched the wind game last year vs the Pats he put balls in receiver's chests that were dropped.  In the rain and snow he completed throws as well.  I am not sure his statistics will always beat out the opponents in the weather (see Philly at Bills with Wentz) but I think it averages out better.  Especially in 2020 and 2021.  If weather is a neutralizer then I want our QB to be able to perform better in those games which I believe he does.  I wouldn't discount running in those games either because those are free yards (or as I call them a guaranteed completion).

 

I also don't believe in the sugar high Josh Allen comments.  My biggest argument against that nickname is look at Josh's stats in primetime and playoff games.  He has some ridiculous numbers.  

 

We have the right guy.  I wouldn't change anything about his game right now.  Even the running.  I don't think he needs to throttle back on scrambles.  I wouldn't mind him running out of bounds instead of lowering a shoulder.  But he seems to have reigned that in a bit with each season.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Fred Slacks

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Link? I don't remember him saying that about home games. Just games in general.

He said that 3 years ago. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The weather

 

 

Yeah it's the weather, IMO.

 

Most of the poor weather conditions that the Bills face are at home.

 

2020 was milder than most seasons and 2021 was the worst weather season the Bills have had to deal with since at least 1997.

 

But this has been going on forever..........not uncommon to see bad passing offense at Highmark and then for the Bills to go on the road to Miami or somewhere else without wind and look like a totally different team.

 

It's also of note though, IMO,  that the field at Highmark is crowned noticeably more than other fields I've been to.

 

When you sit at field level it's very noticeable and I've always felt it's made accuracy on sideline throws a bit more difficult because the QB is basically throwing downhill outside the numbers rather than on a flat plane.    

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

When is a home game not a home game?

[Putin]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

You kid (I hope), but at the Titans game IN NASHVILLE I was surprised how loud it was when we were on offense since it felt like it was more Bills fans than Titans fans. I realize the entire row behind me is in Bills gear making as much noise as possible when we were on offense, especially 3rd downs. We had to have a little talk. They thought just making noise was the point. Ugh…..

 

That was the same crowd of people with one guy who started patting me on the head whenever anything good happened. He was more drunk than myself, and I’m pretty easy going. Late in the game he said “Hey! Your hair is all wet!”. I said “I know, you keep spilling beer on me!”.  😂

 

As for Josh home and away, it’s not that simple. You have to account for weather first and most obviously. We have had some INSANE weather games recently, but there are so many other factors. The quality of the opponent, the game situation (up or down early?), who has more injuries on either side of the ball (did we have a couple WR hurt at home, or are they missing some DB’s on the road?), game plan (they are the worst run defense in the league), etc. Every game is unique and I think it’s far too soon to draw any conclusions. Hopefully Sugar High Josh (it’s a real thing to some degree IMO) learns to control that energy and use it in a productive way.  

 

 

.

Agree 100%  !!! 

[Turk71]

Just a wild guess but my first thought is its because on average he has to do more on the road to win. I' m thinking the Bills probably trail more and are in closer games on the road, where Allen is forced to throw more down the field and be more aggressive.

  That all i got.

p.s. as mentioned, the weather later in the season probably explains a lot of it as well.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Turk71

[Pokebball]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The weather

and not having a strong running game for those bad weather games

[NoSaint]

59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah it's the weather, IMO.

 

Most of the poor weather conditions that the Bills face are at home.

 

2020 was milder than most seasons and 2021 was the worst weather season the Bills have had to deal with since at least 1997.

 

But this has been going on forever..........not uncommon to see bad passing offense at Highmark and then for the Bills to go on the road to Miami or somewhere else without wind and look like a totally different team.

 

It's also of note though, IMO,  that the field at Highmark is crowned noticeably more than other fields I've been to.

 

When you sit at field level it's very noticeable and I've always felt it's made accuracy on sideline throws a bit more difficult because the QB is basically throwing downhill outside the numbers rather than on a flat plane.    

 

 

I think the OP should be obligated to bring us stats normalized by temperature, precipitation and crowning. 
 

that said, I’d guess that in these small samples it’s less about location and more about other variables. 

[billsfan_34]

Allen has nerves of steel and most away games are better weather.

[StHustle]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

So if you are serious in asking about the split - look to the weather.  Don’t try to pawn off the difference as some type of hype related crap - because the higher the pressure - the better he has played both at home and on the road.

Facts! He definitely underperformed in the low pressure game against the Jags. I remember thinking he would have played much better against a much better team. I really feel he has learned from that and it won’t be an issue moving forward.

 

Random: Not only did we FINALLY find a true franchise QB after our unprecedented wait…we really have a guy at the helm whose ceiling is realistically 🐐! 
 

I get how the OP could feel this way. His theory wasn’t some unfounded tin foil hat situation. But end of the day we know Josh can perform great in ANY arena when necessary and he is still a work in progress which is both exciting and scary at the same time!

[MJS]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

He said that 3 years ago. 

Link? I don't remember him saying specifically home games.

[StHustle]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

Link? I don't remember him saying specifically home games.

Cause he didn’t 

[Rochesterfan]

55 minutes ago, StHustle said:

Facts! He definitely underperformed in the low pressure game against the Jags. I remember thinking he would have played much better against a much better team. I really feel he has learned from that and it won’t be an issue moving forward.

 

Random: Not only did we FINALLY find a true franchise QB after our unprecedented wait…we really have a guy at the helm whose ceiling is realistically 🐐! 
 

I get how the OP could feel this way. His theory wasn’t some unfounded tin foil hat situation. But end of the day we know Josh can perform great in ANY arena when necessary and he is still a work in progress which is both exciting and scary at the same time!

 

I understand that, but to repeatedly argue that Josh gets overhyped for home games is no longer accurate at all.  
 

He had issues with being overexcited as a rookie and going into year 2, but it was both at home and on the road.  He admitted as much and has learned to deal with it.  
 

The issue becomes the OP ignoring the difference in weather from season to season and saying that is not the issue - it is the home crowd.  
 

The home crowd may have a small impact on Josh, but it may also have as big or bigger impact on the OC and what plays get called.  The weather also has a huge impact on the entire offense as it is harder to pass and as a poorer rushing team - we might get put into different situations that impact the play calls and therefore the results.

 

The point is there are many factors that could cause a difference in the home and road split season to season, but the OP came into the post with his reason tee’d up and when people have placed legitimate proof that the weather changed dramatically season to season and the impact 1 bad weather game can have - he dismissed it as - it can’t be the weather the 2 seasons were played in the same stadium.

 

His theory was not a tinfoil situation 2 years ago, but he has shown that high pressure home games no longer bother him based upon the end of the season, but he has stated that weather does make throws more difficult.

 

 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Link? I don't remember him saying specifically home games.

 

53 minutes ago, StHustle said:

Cause he didn’t 

I'll look for it but I do recall him saying that he was more pumped up because of the home crowd.  Might have been his rookie year.  Gonna take a while.

[zow2]

I think most of it is weather related.  And while Josh smiles and says the right things, he has been mic'd up enough to know he hates the cold/wet weather and can't stand playing in it.... but admits it can be an advantage for Buffalo if done correctly.  

[Richard Noggin]

I'd simply argue that if there was an issue with him being overhyped at home, he sure seemed to figure it out when it mattered most. So hopefully that's just yet another flaw he has corrected in his relentless pursuit of becoming the best player in football. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

I think the OP should be obligated to bring us stats normalized by temperature, precipitation and crowning. 
 

that said, I’d guess that in these small samples it’s less about location and more about other variables. 

 

 

The 11 games played in the 12 months going back to that Baltimore playoff game where the Ravens couldn't even get shotgun and long snaps off without the wind altering the trajectory have been the worst stretch of wind, rain and cold I can remember.    It's often lost on TV,  but the weather was just miserable.

 

Opening day against Pittsburgh was somehow already November quality swirling wind conditions on the field and that was a harbinger of what was to come.    Allen's passing performance in that Monday night game against the Patriots was one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen.   The opposing QB was having a really good year and wasn't even allowed to throw. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Scott7975]

Or it could be we had a lot of crappy weather games last year.

[L Ron Burgundy]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Sugar-rush Josh at home. Killer Josh on the road. Need Killer Josh 100% of the time. I think/hope the KC game was an eye-opener for him. He can be GREAT when he plays angry and focused.

Yup he gets overhyped sometimes.   If I recall he'd often miss an easy pass or two early at home by putting a little too much on the ball.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

At minimum the Buffalo weather contributes to at least 50% of the difference in Home vs. Away splits for Allen. I think the home Patriots MNF game vs. the home Patriots Wild Card game were a perfect example of that. Yes, Allen was sub par in the MNF game but compared to his counter part who was only allowed to throw the ball two times, Allen looked amazing in 30+ mph winds. And when he played the same team in freezing temps but with no wind, he threw a perfect game. 

[JohnNord]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

I think the whole “Josh doesn’t play well at home” argument was debunked after last years playoff game versus New England