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About Rochesterfan

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    Chilling out - awaiting @YoloinOhio updates on Josh

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  1. Got it - you are correct - Sorry - misread it.
  2. Can you tell me the way Shanahan and Pete from last night are like Jauron because they made similar choices that McDermott has made. Such as a last drive to kick a FG at the end of regulation by Shanahan that was identical to McDermotts. Or ho about Pete punting in OT with about a minute left. Maybe instead of making up garbage and contradicting yourself all over the place - actually watch other teams and see that maybe McDermott isn’t the biggest issue, same goes for Daboll.
  3. Virgil - take it a step further and go back to the end of Regulation. The 49ers drive and the Bills drive were nearly identical - with the Bills actually being more efficient. Both drives traveled 40 yards in a little over a minute. Both lead to FG attempts that were nearly identical - the difference is SF made theirs to go to OT and we missed ours. The frustrating part is McDermott get blasted as playing for the tie and being ultra conservative and a defensive minded coach - Jauron Jr and garbage like that. People praise Shanahan and there is a thread about how he doesn’t play for a tie like McDermont- when he did the exact same thing. I get that people are frustrated, but it is not like Daboll is calling plays that no one else is running. His play calls are actually very much in line with a modern NFL plan. Just like McDermott is called conservative- when he goes for 4th downs more than average teams, plays a passing attack rather than a strict run based offense, and Doesn’t punt on every fourth down near mid field. He has gone for multiple 1st downs in plus territory and very rarely punts in that situation. People really need to watch and look at more games to understand the Bills are slowly becoming a more modern team and there are going to be a lot of growing pains associated with that, but in the long run they will be better as they continue to grow.
  4. What I do not get is the fact that the 49ers went 40 yards at the end of regulation in 1:44 and kicked a FG to tie the game and go to overtime - with an aggressive Offensive Head Coach and no one here is calling him Jauron, but the Bills went the exact same distance 40 yards (with the starting point with 1 yard of each other) in 1:27 and tried to kick the same FG to send it to OT as the 49ers, but McDermott gets blasted. The last drive for both the Bills and the 49ers in Regulation was nearly identical- with the Bills doing it better than the 49ers, but the outcomes were different. McDermott is being called a conservative Defensive HC, while we have threads on how SF did not play for a tie - when they did the exact same thing.
  5. it would not be the probability of getting 4 yards on any 1 play that is the question. It is the probability of getting a first down from any yardage on a 4th down play. The Bills have shown themselves to be adept at getting yardage (over 4 yards) at many points throughout the game, but the issue is that in critical 4th down situations - the Bills are one of the worse teams at converting on that down at any distance - be it 1 yard or 4 yards or 10 yards. The Bills are converting at a 27% rate for 2019 and it was little better last year. McDermott has not shown a fear to not go for it in these situations as he has gambled as much as anyone on the opponent’s side of the 50. The rewards just have not been there. It gets worse when you start to pull out 4 and 1 attempts because JA has gotten many of those via a QB sneak. The probability of getting 4 yards on 1st or 2nd down is much higher as the entire playbook is open because if you do not get the 4 yards you have additional tries. The probability drops as you get to 3rd down because you are more limited in play choices - typically a pass and a quick short pass. The probability would drop even lower for 4th down because now you have to get the 4 yards - so it is almost always a pass and late in the game a pass to the sidelines. Therefore you are increasing the defenses ability to know what your play is and what to attack. If you are Drew Brees and the Saints - they probability is higher you can get a first down. If you are the Bills or the Packers or the Rams, or the Cowboys that percentage is lower and you have to factor that into the decision tree. If you have (like the Packers) a zero percent chance on 4th down (they have not converted a 4th down in 2019) and you have a kicker you trust - that boosts the Fg% probabilities and decreases the go for it probabilities. In the end that doesn’t matter because people on both sides will come out claiming you screwed it up if you lose. That is the joy of being a coach.
  6. Which is really part of the problem with these. That was percentages based on the the big ten - a huge difference from pros. These percentage based decisions also are based upon league averages. If the Bills are a below league average team on 4th down and >1 yard then the numbers would have to be revised to fit their current situation. For example if the league average conversion rate is 50%, but the Bills only convert 4th and >1 yard 10% of the time - using the 50% gives a huge boost to the probability that is inaccurate for the team in question. I get that you have to use league averages to have enough numbers to make the math work, but teams also have to look at their own make-up to know if they are better worse or at the average. Just a quick search shows that this year the Bills convert less than 27% of 4th down attempts and of the 3 made - all were 1 yard or less. That tells me that for this team you would need to revise the initial % chance to convert way to less than 27% - closer to 0-10%. What does your win probability look like if you switch 46% probability of converting to a more accurate Bills rate of 10%? Using the Bills percentage means the FG attempt would have a higher win probability than the attempt at 4th down.
  7. No they don’t. They are always passes if it tosses it like that. The runs are the quick handoffs. This play is a forward pass and that is the exact reason they do it.
  8. Agreed - the bigger surprise to me was 3 different 1-7 teams getting wins. The Bills/Browns games was seen as a toss-up with the Browns favored and they won. So despite the records - the favored team won the game- it is not like the falcons beating the saints. I will take it a step further- everyone here complaining about the Bills and how hot the Steelers and Browns are - will guess what - they have 2 of their next 3 meetings against each other - so if they split as they typically do - they both get an additional loss - plus they both get Baltimore- so if they are as good as people think - both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have a good shot at 2 more losses minimally. There is still a lot of football left and somehow the Bills get destroyed for losing a close game that they were up in and had their FG kicker miss 2 kicks and a Tre White drop a game winning Int that either he or Poyer should of had, but Pittsburgh is praised for scoring 1 more point and the talk is how the Bills have no chance. I really do not get some people’s perspective on football.
  9. This is straight BS. There was on field issues/off field issues - that RI has acknowledged that lead to some decisions. The Bills worked on a pay cut and RI agreed to it. The rest of the stuff happened because of RI own doings. We do not know (nor should we know) what the Bills discussed with RI about his mental health struggles and/or if his decisions in that regard led to the pay cut. Just listen to the players and you know this sentiment is absolutely BS. The players talk repeatedly about the environment and culture and how much everyone seems to care. To even suggest they would just throw him out without trying to get him help is absurd. The fact that it took RI over a year to realize the help he needed suggests exactly where the problem lies.
  10. Come on guys this was easy I was over 100 and I only took it 3 times. I am sure with a could more I could bust 200 or 300. oh you don’t get to add the scores each time - man I should go to Harvard so I can QB in this league and I won’t wear gloves as a TE - plus my uncle is kind of famous. LOL
  11. Next week it will be - Why NE - I am ready to ball - let me back in - waaaaaaah
  12. Maybe if Taylor (or Kevin) threw for a 300 yard game in HS our resident crusader might campaign for them to start at QB especially if enough liquid is involved. Remember it does not matter if you win or lose - just throw for the magical 300 yards. LOL
  13. This makes no sense - the issues in Jacksonville and Buffalo are totally different. The Stadium in Jacksonville is already downtown and on the waterfront. Jacksonville has a totally different issue getting fans. The Buffalo fan base is getting older and the Pegulas are building up downtown. It makes sense to explore a dome and downtown venue in Buffalo.
  14. Nope - does not bother me in the least. The media is what it is. Where does the hype and good things get you? Look to the Browns and the Jets - heaped with praise this off-season. Up and coming teams with Super Bowl aspirations- now they are the laughing stocks of the leagues. The media is fickle and very poorly informed. I will take exactly what we are getting - a solid growing team. Just win baby - dominance matters next to nothing- you don’t make the playoffs by having 5 dominate wins - if you lose the other 11. Beat the teams you play and let’s see where we end up. The rest is meaningless.
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