The Singletary Conundrum.

[ChicagoRic]

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

[Best Williams Available]

I think Brieda’s performance shows Devin is just another guy. Motor was touted as a guy who could get a lot of yards after first contact (in college he excelled at this) and at the NFL level he hasn’t shown it. If he could blow through holes with speed or jook a guy out of his jock then this could be forgiven. But he can’t so we shouldn’t.

[nedboy7]

Based on your assessment he sucks. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Motor doesn't get the ball anywhere near enough for a back of his ability.  I will not subscribe to this assessment of him.  YPA for a running back does not lie.  5.0 YPA is ELITE.  If Motor gets his touches, he will produce.  No RB is going to look good with < 10 carries a game.

[Boatdrinks]

Pretty much JAG

[JoshAllin]

7 minutes ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

Motor doesn't get the ball anywhere near enough for a back of his ability.  I will not subscribe to this assessment of him.  YPA for a running back does not lie.  5.0 YPA is ELITE.  If Motor gets his touches, he will produce.  No RB is going to look good with < 10 carries a game.

Yup, if this was a running team and he got the average amount of carries I'd say in at least 4 of the games he have 110+ yrds. But glad this is the Josh show

[MJS]

He is a good player. He gets very few touches and usually makes the most of them. The fumbling is not ideal, though.

 

If he was on another team and got 20+ touches a game, I bet he would produce.

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, Best Williams Available said:

I think Brieda’s performance shows Devin is just another guy. Motor was touted as a guy who could get a lot of yards after first contact (in college he excelled at this) and at the NFL level he hasn’t shown it. If he could blow through holes with speed or jook a guy out of his jock then this could be forgiven. But he can’t so we shouldn’t.

This just simply isn’t true. He constantly makes guys miss with his jukes. But he needs a head start to implement his feats. If/when he’s stopped dead in his tracks behind the O-line, he’s toast.

[Scott7975]

Singletary is the best back on this football team.  I don't like the fumbles but at least most of them went oob.  The guy doesn't get enough snaps to get in a rhythm because this is a passing football team and for whatever reason the Bills have a fetish of giving Moss more than half the carries.  Probably because he is the least prone to fumble I guess but he isn't as good of a back IMO.

 

Mostly the problem in the run game is the offensive line and the tells.  They did a better job this past week.  Running out of shotgun is also not optimal for RBs because they don't get that head of steam nor do they have really good vision of the line by the time they get the ball, but the Bills did less of that this week too.  Thats why the run game looked better.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Scott7975

[LeGOATski]

JAG

 

They're all JAGs. The Bills should draft RBs in the later rounds with high RAS. The 49ers did that with Mitchell and Sermon. Both late round guys, but both above 9 (out of 10) for RAS. So far Mitchell looks really good.

 

By comparison, Singletary and Moss are around 1 and 2 for RAS. Super low.

 

Since RBs are a dime a dozen in this system, don't overthink it. Just put some freak athletes back there.

[billybrew1]

24 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

JAG

 

They're all JAGs. The Bills should draft RBs in the later rounds with high RAS. The 49ers did that with Mitchell and Sermon. Both late round guys, but both above 9 (out of 10) for RAS. So far Mitchell looks really good.

 

By comparison, Singletary and Moss are around 1 and 2 for RAS. Super low.

 

Since RBs are a dime a dozen in this system, don't overthink it. Just put some freak athletes back there.

We've got to do somethin'   

 

We need to upgrade the OL AND get better backs, imho...

 

And you're right. We need bigger and faster backs.

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

Motor doesn't get the ball anywhere near enough for a back of his ability.  I will not subscribe to this assessment of him.  YPA for a running back does not lie.  5.0 YPA is ELITE.  If Motor gets his touches, he will produce.  No RB is going to look good with < 10 carries a game.

This!

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

 

 

Good player, but far from great

 

But a lot of his lack of TDs is that he isn't in the game when they're down at the goal line. Moss is in there, or nobody and if they run it, it's Allen.

 

You can't just hold the raw numbers against him there. He's had 6 career TDs, but out of how many runs from inside the 5 yard line? He's not our hammer, nor will he ever be. But that doesn't mean he's not good.

[GunnerBill]

He can NOT keep putting the ball on the floor. 

[Utah John]

Singletary's yards per carry (5.0) is great but deceiving.  The other teams are shocked, shocked when the Bills run the ball.  Their defenses are geared toward rushing the QB and stopping the deep passes, not preventing a RB from getting 5 yards.  

[HOUSE]

One of Buffalo's best running games of the season and the very next day we want to chloroform poor Devin Singletary

Go Figure

 

7 Carries-6.1 yard average, 43 yards and 1 TD

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by HOUSE

[Mikie2times]

55 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Singletary's yards per carry (5.0) is great but deceiving.  The other teams are shocked, shocked when the Bills run the ball.  Their defenses are geared toward rushing the QB and stopping the deep passes, not preventing a RB from getting 5 yards.  

This explains him at 5.1 his rookie year in 2019, when we weren't a modern version of the USFL?

[JGMcD2]

8 hours ago, Best Williams Available said:

If he could blow through holes with speed or jook a guy out of his jock then this could be forgiven. But he can’t so we shouldn

When things were going really bad with our run game, part of the reason we even gained yards at all was because Devin would make a guy miss in the backfield… he jukes a guy out on like every run. 
 

What games are you watching? 
 

I don’t think he’s an elite back by any means, but he’s not as horrible as everyone makes him sound. 

[Best Williams Available]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

When things were going really bad with our run game, part of the reason we even gained yards at all was because Devin would make a guy miss in the backfield… he jukes a guy out on like every run. 
 

What games are you watching? 
 

I don’t think he’s an elite back by any means, but he’s not as horrible as everyone makes him sound. 

I’d like to see him get 10-20 touches a game. Maybe he needs consistency to get going. Yes he makes guys miss here and there every game but I don’t see elite escapability. I like his combo of toughness and wiggle in the hole but nothing screams very above avg from what we’ve seen so far. Give him some touches and let’s find out then.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

As Josh gets older and runs less we will need a rb that can both run between the tackles and threaten the edge of the defense. I expect we will draft later round guys until someone can do that but for now we will stand pat. I'll be surprised if we sign him to a long term deal.

Edited November 16, 2021 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[JGMcD2]

47 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:

I’d like to see him get 10-20 touches a game. Maybe he needs consistency to get going. Yes he makes guys miss here and there every game but I don’t see elite escapability. I like his combo of toughness and wiggle in the hole but nothing screams very above avg from what we’ve seen so far. Give him some touches and let’s find out then.

There’s no reason to give him 10-20 touches a game. The 8-15 he’s getting right is just fine. He doesn’t make guys miss here and there… he makes a guy miss on like every touch. He’s averaging 5 yards a carry… that’s tied for 7th among RB. He needs to clean up his ball security… otherwise he’s just fine. 
 

There’s no reason to force feed him the ball when we have Josh Allen. 20ish touches/game between Breida, Moss and Singletary is appropriate. 
 

We just need the threat the run to have success on offense. 
 

EDIT: Singletary and Moss forced missed tackles on 21% and 20% of their touches last year. It puts them both in the top 20 in the NFL. 
 

For reference Derrick Henry and Zeke Elliot had 20% and 19%. 

Edited November 16, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Best Williams Available]

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

There’s no reason to give him 10-20 touches a game. The 8-15 he’s getting right is just fine. He doesn’t make guys miss here and there… he makes a guy miss on like every touch. He’s averaging 5 yards a carry… that’s tied for 7th among RB. He needs to clean up his ball security… otherwise he’s just fine. 
 

There’s no reason to force feed him the ball when we have Josh Allen. 20ish touches/game between Breida, Moss and Singletary is appropriate. 
 

We just need the threat the run to have success on offense. 

If you say so. Running back by committee is not something that works for every offense. Apart from last Sunday I’d say we were bad at it for the most part. Hard to gauge if this is because of new wrinkles or bad Jets D performance. If like to see the backs get a whole series rather than this plug n play style but I get that Daboll’s O likes to scheme.

[ChasBB]

I'd like to see our featured running back have a little more size and a little more speed than Singletary.  While Singletary has had some very nice long runs in his short career, he generally gets easily chased-down when he reaches open field - he doesn't have a "second gear".  Also would like to see more size to handle blitzes and maybe break a few more tackles.  That said, I don't dislike him - he's serviceable, but just think Bills can do better at RB.

[Not at the table Karlos]

The hate Singletary gets and the love Moss gets makes absolutely no sense. It's like people just listen to the talking idiots on tv and ignore what's happening on the field(seems to happen with everything these days)

 

Singletary has consistently been the better back. As a rookie before he ever took the field everyone was hyping up Moss like he was the second coming of Derrick Henry with nothing to back it up. 

 

I would like someone with more speed tho. Breida made the line look competent when he was in

Edited November 16, 2021 by Not at the table Karlos

[DapperCam]

He’s alright, but could be improved. He doesn’t have speed to get around the edge, so that might limit our play calling when he out there. 

 

I’m leaning towards JAG, but definitely a starter/roster player in the NFL.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I think if he had an OL that was good at blocking the runs they call and determined to stick to the run, we'd discover that he is a more capable back than most here believe.

[Albany,n.y.]

Please stop with the late round RB stuff.  The sweet spot is late 1st or early-mid 2nd round.  There's no reason to expect to find the guy below that.  We have 2 3rd round RBs who aren't cutting it. Go further down & the odds decrease of finding a franchise back.  A franchise back is the final piece to an unstoppable offense.  OG & RB 1st 2 rounds in either order.  It's time for us to stop cheaping out on those 2 positions.  It's too bad Ford is a bust but it happens. If the Bills have to trade up into the 40s in the 2nd round to get their RB, do it!  

 

By the 3rd round the best RBs are all but gone.  Sure you can find a late round gem every now & then, but they're the exception, not the rule.  Here is the draft status of the NFL top 5 rushers so far in 2021:

D. Henry: 2nd pick 45

J. Taylor 2nd 41

N. Chubb 2nd 35

E. Elliott 1st 4

D. Cook 2nd 41

 

[DCOrange]

12 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

Ultimately, he's a RB and therefore expendable. But, regarding the bolded, he's currently 5th in the league in tackles avoided per attempt and tied for 17th in total tackles avoided per PFF. Also slightly above average in terms of yards after contact per attempt.

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Please stop with the late round RB stuff.  The sweet spot is late 1st or early-mid 2nd round.  There's no reason to expect to find the guy below that.  We have 2 3rd round RBs who aren't cutting it. Go further down & the odds decrease of finding a franchise back.  A franchise back is the final piece to an unstoppable offense.  OG & RB 1st 2 rounds in either order.  It's time for us to stop cheaping out on those 2 positions.  It's too bad Ford is a bust but it happens. If the Bills have to trade up into the 40s in the 2nd round to get their RB, do it!  

 

By the 3rd round the best RBs are all but gone.  Sure you can find a late round gem every now & then, but they're the exception, not the rule.  Here is the draft status of the NFL top 5 rushers so far in 2021:

D. Henry: 2nd pick 45

J. Taylor 2nd 41

N. Chubb 2nd 35

E. Elliott 1st 4

D. Cook 2nd 41

 

 

Those are some of the top RBs for sure.  I do not mind a second round RB.  But...

Some third round RBs....

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

David Johnson

David Montgomery

DeMarco Murray

Frank Gore

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Please stop with the late round RB stuff.  The sweet spot is late 1st or early-mid 2nd round.  There's no reason to expect to find the guy below that.  We have 2 3rd round RBs who aren't cutting it. Go further down & the odds decrease of finding a franchise back.  A franchise back is the final piece to an unstoppable offense.  OG & RB 1st 2 rounds in either order.  It's time for us to stop cheaping out on those 2 positions.  It's too bad Ford is a bust but it happens. If the Bills have to trade up into the 40s in the 2nd round to get their RB, do it!  

 

By the 3rd round the best RBs are all but gone.  Sure you can find a late round gem every now & then, but they're the exception, not the rule.  Here is the draft status of the NFL top 5 rushers so far in 2021:

D. Henry: 2nd pick 45

J. Taylor 2nd 41

N. Chubb 2nd 35

E. Elliott 1st 4

D. Cook 2nd 41

 

Correlation is not necessarily causation.  Teams that draft a RB high may feel the need to run them more.  Looking at rush attempts you see something similar, but Kamara is in top 5.  YPA seems a better metric, and when we remove QBs we get 

1. N Chubb 2nd round (6.0)

2. J Taylor 2nd round (5.8)

3. C Edmonds 4th round (5.7)

4 J Robinson UDFA (5.4)

5 T Pollard 4th round (5.4)

 

It continues this way that for every 2nd or 1st round pick there is a later pick.  I guess where we might disagree is need for a franchise RB.  You want 1 guy to carry the rock 20+ times?  I dont want that and it seems we can get plenty of efficiency drafting players later.

[Ramza86]

Id like to see him behind a good line. I think Singletary and or Moss would look great behind say...the niners scheme/line

[benderbender]

30 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

Id like to see him behind a good line. I think Singletary and or Moss would look great behind say...the niners scheme/line

I'd like to see us have a good line.

[blacklabel]

He’s got some skills. I kinda thought they’d use him on screens a bit more given his abilities in space. He has pretty good vision and an ability to squeak thru a pile and pick up yards. Contact balance is pretty good too. 
 

I wonder if their “hot hand” approach is detrimental at times. If you’re rotating every other series or whatever, it can be hard to get into a groove and get a read on how the defense is playing you. Maybe sometimes they just need to stick with him or Moss for several series in a row just to see what happens. 
 

Breida has been mentioned and yeah he’s fast but he’s not hard to tackle, he’s usually down at first contact. I think they looked at Moss to be that bruiser style back and at times he rips off some nice runs. It’s just inconsistency throughout the backs and the OL. But also, if you’re dedicated to running the ball you’re gonna have to live with every few carries going for one or two or three or losing a couple. Just how it is.

 

I do like how Daboll mixed it up last Sunday. Gave a lot of run looks but would throw on those downs and then would give a passing look and run it and it saw some success. They also got the play action working big time. Something like 300 of the 366 yards Allen threw for came from play action. 
 

If the run game struggles continue, I think maybe it’s time they tried to find an all purpose, 3-down kind of back.

[DasNootz]

Eye test:

Gets chunks, but never breaks one  

Puts it on the carpet far too often

 

Honestly the primary reason to keep him is for continuity... you know you're getting a JAG - but at least he knows the playbook.

[Utah John]

8 hours ago, KzooMike said:

This explains him at 5.1 his rookie year in 2019, when we weren't a modern version of the USFL?

He was better then.  Most RBs don't stay good for long.

[John from Riverside]

Its simple for me.....Motor aint it

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

 

Things I think about Devin:

 

Pros:

1. Shifty - He is a guy who can make people miss and find extra yards in tight spaces.  
2. Runs hard - He is actually difficult to tackle with his powerful legs and low center of gravity, frequently keeps the pile moving forward once contact is made for such a small guy.
3. Good vision - He sees the field well and finds seams even when none seem to be there.

Cons:

1. Quick but not fast - He is shifty and quick, especially when cutting, but he doesn't have that next gear explosion.
2. Unreliable hands - While he can be effective in the passing game, his hands are nothing to write home about.  

 

Fit here:  I wish Daboll used him better, same with Moss.  We need to play to the strengths more of our RB's and give them chances to get the ball and hit the hole.  We seem to run too many run plays that are slow to develop.  For example, RPO's or delayed handoffs from shotgun formations.  This can be maddening to watch because when they don't work, instead of it being something like a short gain to a short loss, we end up losing 4 to 6 yards which is worse than a false start penalty.  At least with a false start penalty, you get to replay the down when you lose 5 yards.  

 

I wish Daboll would give our guys more opportunities to get the ball and hit holes.  Until then, its not clear just how good Devin or Moss could be. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

17 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

3 years in, and I still don't have this guy figured out.

 

On one hand, his yards per carry has been consistently good.  5.0 yards per carry this season.  He's our leading rusher.  He's a willing an able blocker.

 

On the other hand, when the time comes for him to make a crucial first down (12 this year, on 80 carries, and just 3 broken tackles) or punch it in the end zone (6 career TDs over 3 years), he always seems to come up short.

He coughs up the ball at crucial moments (5 fumbles this year).

When he has an open field ahead of him, he drops the easy pass  (10.7% drop percentage).

 

I like the way he runs..until the Bills really NEED a play to happen.  Then, he's the last offensive player I want to touch the ball.

 

So, what is he?  Good player?  Bad player? Just a guy?

The Bills use him correctly, 8 touches a game. 

 

As long as Zack Moss continues to see the ball less and less I am all for it. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I think he’d be better if they gave him the ball more. The constant changing of RBs is silliness. Let a guy get into the rhythm of the game. Wether it’s Singletary or Moss. Pick a guy, play him and use the other guy here and there to give him a blow. Rotating them every other drive is asinine. Neither of them will ever be good and I think it’s because they don’t play enough. No feel for the game, no rhythm. Pick a guy and play him.

[Orlando Tim]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Things I think about Devin:

 

Pros:

1. Shifty - He is a guy who can make people miss and find extra yards in tight spaces.  
2. Runs hard - He is actually difficult to tackle with his powerful legs and low center of gravity, frequently keeps the pile moving forward once contact is made for such a small guy.
3. Good vision - He sees the field well and finds seams even when none seem to be there.

Cons:

1. Quick but not fast - He is shifty and quick, especially when cutting, but he doesn't have that next gear explosion.
2. Unreliable hands - While he can be effective in the passing game, his hands are nothing to write home about.  

 

Fit here:  I wish Daboll used him better, same with Moss.  We need to play to the strengths more of our RB's and give them chances to get the ball and hit the hole.  We seem to run too many run plays that are slow to develop.  For example, RPO's or delayed handoffs from shotgun formations.  This can be maddening to watch because when they don't work, instead of it being something like a short gain to a short loss, we end up losing 4 to 6 yards which is worse than a false start penalty.  At least with a false start penalty, you get to replay the down when you lose 5 yards.  

 

I wish Daboll would give our guys more opportunities to get the ball and hit holes.  Until then, its not clear just how good Devin or Moss could be. 

I was about to write this out but you did it for me. His biggest problem with getting going is the defense in the backfield, but anyone not named Barry Sanders would have issues. Overall he is good, not great.