eball Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: Texans are a classic trap game with KC up next. I see a win but closer than it should be. Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson. There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blainorama5 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, eball said: Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson. There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game. Yeah, but folks around here really need something to wring their hands about. It's just the TBD way. 🤪 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uninja Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blainorama5 said: Yeah, but folks around here really need something to wring their hands about. It's just the TBD way. 🤪 There's 2 decades of PTSD we're still working through. We're all thoroughly convinced this stretch of competence is a mirage and the rug is going to get pulled out from under us the second we let our guard down. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: If Mike Glennon and Merton Hanks had a son ... this would be him. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 (edited) I have no worries about this team overlooking the next game, whenever or whoever it is. This is a very disciplined, humble, hungry team. I do fully expect Daboll to install the QB sweep play again, though. I bet he is still livid that we didn't hit it when he called it in OT in the playoff game. It was the perfect play call at the perfect time, foiled only by the fact that 3 big guys couldn't block 1 DB. He *has* to want to try it again against this team. Edited September 27, 2021 by Rubes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: Texans are a classic trap game with KC up next. I see a win but closer than it should be. KC should worry about getting "trapped" by the Eagles in Philly Sunday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, eball said: Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson. There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game. It needs pinned at the beginning of every season 35 minutes ago, Blainorama5 said: Yeah, but folks around here really need something to wring their hands about. It's just the TBD way. 🤪 They can wring their hands over the game that takes place the night of 10/10 for 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiltonWaddams Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, chris heff said: So should I be as worried about Davis Mills as some on this site told me to worry about Taylor Heineke? Yes. Just as worried. Because you shouldn’t have been worried about the latter and you won’t be worried about the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
x-BillzeBubba Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, x-BillzeBubba said: Huh so that's what was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I could see this game being a little closer (i.e. not covering the 17 point spread) but it's still important for Allen and the defense to continue to 'fine tune' before we face the Chiefs who aren't going away despite their surprising slow start. Titans have also rebounded strong after their disappointing opening day loss. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 4 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: Texans are a classic trap game with KC up next. I see a win but closer than it should be. Trap games don't exist, except in the minds of uninformed sports fans. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: I still hold a grudge against the Texans, even though most of that 2019 team is gone I think I am finally in a place now where I can resist launching into a now well rehearsed tirade about section 2.7 of the dead ball code when some ####### tries to tell me that "common sense" prevailed at the beginning of the second half. 53 minutes ago, Rubes said: I have no worries about this team overlooking the next game, whenever or whoever it is. This is a very disciplined, humble, hungry team. I do fully expect Daboll to install the QB sweep play again, though. I bet he is still livid that we didn't hit it when he called it in OT in the playoff game. It was the perfect play call at the perfect time, foiled only by the fact that 3 big guys couldn't block 1 DB. He *has* to want to try it again against this team. With Knox waiting in the wings for a lateral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: I believe you but what "huge study" and how did this "huge study decided what was a trap game and what wasn't. Without a source or the actualk study imo your comments dont provide any evidence at all. As did the Texans including their best defender in Reid. I posted about this quite a bit over the years as well as to the relevant study in Football Outsiders, should be able to find it in the search I actually found the relevant link from 2017 Edited September 27, 2021 by Big Turk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 37 minutes ago, x-BillzeBubba said: So by that math he should have 8 this weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 34 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: I think I am finally in a place now where I can resist launching into a now well rehearsed tirade about section 2.7 of the dead ball code when some ####### tries to tell me that "common sense" prevailed at the beginning of the second half. With Knox waiting in the wings for a lateral. Hail Mary to Reggie Gilliam for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: The Rams beat the Buccaneers convincingly yesterday, but the Buccaneers are still ranked ahead of them? Broncos are number 10 and the Raiders are number 18? I guess when you beat the likes of the Jaguars, Giants & Jets, then you are definitely a top 10 team. No respect for the Chargers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, The Wiz said: So by that math he should have 8 this weekend. Yep. And 65,536 TD passes in the season finale against the Jets. Hey, the Jets just might be capable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceman_16 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, eball said: Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson. There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game. We were certainly NEVER (in recent memory) a "trap" game for the Pats**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Mcdermott is too good of a coach for the team not to show up. The defense feasts. The Bills start gelling more on offense. I expect another beat down. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Still have to take the game seriously. Get 26 going early and keep playing good defense. Find a way to get another W. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfaninSB Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, corta765 said: Anyone who says next week will be a blowout needs to watch the Texans against the Panthers and there other two games. They are vet heavy lineup that may not have talent but Culley has them playing hard. Teams like that are always tough because they have wayyy too much pride to rollover and Cooks is having a great year at WR. I don't think the Bills cover the game and I could see a 24-14 type game which is closer then people think but never necessarily in doubt either. Add in the KC game the week after and it feels like a game where fans me get more frustrated with how it plays out to get a win. Hopefully the upside of the Steeler game is that this team will have the upmost urgency regardless who they play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: Looks like Ashton Youboty and Merton Hanks had a baby.......kinda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: Texans are a classic trap game with KC up next. I see a win but closer than it should be. The cliched 'trap game' moniker was proven to be a false narrative years ago. The analytics and numbers don't support that drivel. It's just statistically not true and something emotionally fragile fans use to placate themselves in the unlikely event of an upset. Don't perpetuate the myth, educate yourself: "Using Pro-Football-Reference’s wonderful game finder, I observed every game where a team above .500 played a below .500 team over the past 10 seasons (2002-2011). Over 1359 games, the above .500 team won 79.5% of the time. We must compare the above .500 team’s win percentage in trap games to this base rate of 79.5% in order to see if good teams lose at a statistically significantly higher rate. Limiting the sample to our trap game definition (n=515), the above .500 team won 80.5% of the time, a full percentage point higher than in the full sample. Far from a losing more frequently, as we would expect by the trap game logic, good teams tend to do even better against worse teams the week before they play a good team. However, this difference is not statistically significant: a difference of means t-test yields a t-value of just 0.60. So we fail to reject the null hypothesis that good teams have a different win percentage in trap games than they do in any game against a sub-.500 team." https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uninja Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 hours ago, eball said: Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson. There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game. I was listening to Greg Rosenthal's podcast on my way home today. He was spouting some advanced analytics that suggested that a good super bowl indicator is teams that smash the opponents they should smash. My interpretation. The Bills smashing the WFT was a good portend, the Ravens kicking a 66 yarder to sneak by the Lions was a bad portend of the team's chances of playing in February. Not sure I agree or disagree, but I did find it interesting enough to drop it in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 59 minutes ago, The Wiz said: So by that math he should have 8 this weekend. 39 minutes ago, K-9 said: Yep. And 65,536 TD passes in the season finale against the Jets. Hey, the Jets just might be capable. Unfortunately, it's an S curve. He'll plateau around 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: I posted about this quite a bit over the years as well as to the relevant study in Football Outsiders, should be able to find it in the search I actually found the relevant link from 2017 hmmm....what about the "post beat-down letdown"? 2 hours ago, Blainorama5 said: A Tale of Two Necks. you decide. 😉 At least Grogan has a chin.... And he could play....one tough dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanNH Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: Trap games don't exist, except in the minds of uninformed sports fans. So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunTheBall Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, chris heff said: So should I be as worried about Davis Mills as some on this site told me to worry about Taylor Heineke? Mills once though of paying a pre season visit to The Ralph, which should give him a psychological edge according to some posters. What’s everyone going to moan about this week? The crowd? Nope. The wind? Nope. OMG A TRAP GAME! Nope, debunked. How about a 24% chance of rain? Josh doesn’t like his balls wet. that could be a big factor. McD’s teams don’t take any opponent lightly. We should absolutely destroy the Texans. Doesn’t mean we will, any given Sunday, but please for the love of God this week can we stop looking for any little possible factor that could turn the balance against us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, chris heff said: So should I be as worried about Davis Mills as some on this site told me to worry about Taylor Heineke? Never underestimate this fanbase's ability to hype up our next opponent as world-beaters. Mills is bad even using backup standards. Same as Washington, no excuse to lose this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I'll be at this game. My one trip to Buffalo this year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said: So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. So you're saying that the actual stats are wrong and a few TV personalities are right? Coaches and players certainly don't put any stock into the trap game myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Blainorama5 said: Yeah, but folks around here really need something to wring their hands about. It's just the TBD way. 🤪 Note the name on the account: @PatsFanNH. He's a Pats* fan, just gently trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
technobot Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I think Houston will play hard but this has Josh Allen Unleashed written all over it, preceded by this exchange: "But, sir, the collateral damage..." "Is a consequence we'll have to live with. God bless America. Air strike confirmed." It's coming, folks, perhaps this week. The game that Nostradmus predicted at the end of his life. Hit everything for 500+ yards, 7 total touchdowns GOAT performance that will have the talking heads exploding. Bills defense keeps generating turnovers giving Allen even more chances to pad his stats. Followed by "but it's only Houston..." When Allen "only" throws for 300+ 3TD the week after, there will be talk about "regression". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, technobot said: I think Houston will play hard but this has Josh Allen Unleashed written all over it, preceded by this exchange: "But, sir, the collateral damage..." "Is a consequence we'll have to live with. God bless America. Air strike confirmed." It's coming, folks, perhaps this week. The game that Nostradmus predicted at the end of his life. Hit everything for 500+ yards, 7 total touchdowns GOAT performance that will have the talking heads exploding. Bills defense keeps generating turnovers giving Allen even more chances to pad his stats. Followed by "but it's only Houston..." When Allen "only" throws for 300+ 3TD the week after, there will be talk about "regression". I mean it is definitely true that Josh probably has all the reason in the world to want to obliterate the Texans after the last two times he's played them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blainorama5 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: Note the name on the account: @PatsFanNH. He's a Pats* fan, just gently trolling. I did NOT notice that. Make much more sense. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 37 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said: So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. Yeah that's the problem...they perpetuate the myth. It doesn't exist. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted September 27, 2021 Author Share Posted September 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukestreetking Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: The guy wears a sign on his back that says, "D'arce choke available. No cost" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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