Draft night expectations; Trade up * Stand pat * Trade back

[Inigo Montoya]

This year I will likely watch the Draft from my living room and wait and wait for the Bills to select.  (This drafting at #30 is a new phenomenon) After pick #10 I think anything can happen.  I don't see Beane selling the farm to move up into the top ten, but I could see him go after a "difference maker" in the teens and early twenties if he can swing a deal.   The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Knowing Beane if an impact player is within reach, he'll make the call to move up. 

[BillsfaninSB]

Stay put.  Unless a current player is thrown into the deal it does not seem the Bills have the assets.  I don’t see Beane giving up a 2022 first either.

 

The Bills have the luxury of not desperately needing help at any position. 

[glazeduck]

15 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This year I will likely watch the Draft from my living room and wait and wait for the Bills to select.  (This drafting at #30 is a new phenomenon) After pick #10 I think anything can happen.  I don't see Beane selling the farm to move up into the top ten, but I could see him go after a "difference maker" in the teens and early twenties if he can swing a deal.   The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

Serious suggestion, if you don't like all of the rigmarole of the draft, why watch it live? Why not record it, find out where we end up drafting, fast forward to all the stuff you don't like and just watch that part? Watching every moment of the draft isn't for everyone, and as someone who HAS for probably the last 25 years, I don't judge anyone who's not willing or able to carve out that much time in their weekend to do so. You do you!

 

To answer your question, I think there's a pretty high likelihood we trade up and can see really any of the 20s being our potential landing zone, with any of Paye, Phillips if he drops, Marshall, or Rondale Moore, Farley and Newsome being sensible targets.

 

 

[H2o]

This organization is so tight-lipped now that it's hard to know who or what position they covet in all honesty. I think standing pat is the most likely of the three, but I see a trade up more likely than a trade back knowing how Beane maneuvers if they covet a player on the board. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I think a trade back is very likely depending who falls. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Trade back with Philly for Eartz. Just not seeing this happen.

 

Beane likes to trade up so i can see that happening.

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

52 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This year I will likely watch the Draft from my living room and wait and wait for the Bills to select.  (This drafting at #30 is a new phenomenon) After pick #10 I think anything can happen.  I don't see Beane selling the farm to move up into the top ten, but I could see him go after a "difference maker" in the teens and early twenties if he can swing a deal.   The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

 

Lol that's how I felt when KC traded up for Mahomes. Trade backs aren't really exciting or splashy, but sometimes it's the smart thing to do. We know Beane will also trade up to if needed. With a pretty stacked roster I wouldn't count that out.

[billsfan89]

I think the Bills hold at pick 30 and take the best player on the board, they are in a position where they can just let the draft come to them and it is a good spot to be in. I think McBeane would prefer to trade down  into the mid to late 30’s unless tremendous value presented its self at 30. I think given the crunch this team is going to be under when Josh’s contract comes due it makes sense for McBeane to trade down and get more picks and still get a player that can help 5 to 10 spots later.

 

But I don’t see a trade down being available and I think it would make sense for the Bills to just take the best player on the board at pick 30.

[ndirish1978]

Depends what moving up would costs to get the players they've identified as impact players. If they get to 30 and there are no players they have a 1st rd grade on I'd expect a trade back and then moving up and around in later rounds. 

[mannc]

If someone like Farley or Paye is available at 25 or 26, I could see a move up to get him, but I don't think Beane will be willing to give up what it will take to move up more than that.     

[ganesh]

we will trade up get that 

* pass rusher   OR 

* Corner back  OR

* Running back 

1 hour ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Stay put.  Unless a current player is thrown into the deal it does not seem the Bills have the assets.  I don’t see Beane giving up a 2022 first either.

 

The Bills have the luxury of not desperately needing help at any position. 

i don't think you will give you your 2022 1st rounder if you are moving to the 23 to 25 range.  t will be more of next years 2nd or 3rd....which would be ok

 

[JimmyNoodles]

I think most agree that Edge and CB are the two biggest needs.  I personally don't like any edge player in round one.  I just don't see the production or impact.  CB is deep in this draft so there's no need to trade up.  By process of elimination, I'm standing pat or trading back.  I could see Beane trying to get back the missing 4th rounder by moving back somewhere.  This is a good draft for the BPA crowd.  I do think someone will fall and that someone might not be a CB.  Let's see how that plays out.      

[maddenboy]

This should be a poll.

 

But wait until Draft-eve, since things like rumors and the occasional depth signings might impact my vote.

 

Currently, I'd vote Move Up.

[Victory Formation]

Micah Parsons or Jaylen Waddle would be well worth going up for. Picture Waddle in this offense, we would be deadly.

[All I Need is Hope]

I agree that if there's a run on edge rushers or CB's and there's one that Beane likes, he'll trade up.  Someone like Paye, Ojulari, Horn or Surtain get to 20 or so, I could see a trade up.

 

We don't need a lot of developmental players or depth, we need high end contributors this year.

[17islongenough]

Could be trade up twice.   6th and 7th rounders will have a tough time making this team.   So they trade up in the 1st using a a 5th.  Then using their 6th and 7th trade back up into the 5th

[In Summary]

• Rounds 1-3, Stay Put.  I don't see the point unless you're talking about a QB or possibly elite edge rusher.  Recent trade-ups include Cody Ford, Edmunds, Allen, Zay Jones, and Dawkins.  If you've got equal grades on players left from 30 to (say) 38, then consider trading down within that talent band.
• Round 4: N/A  (This is the round where we previously picked Gabe Davis, Taron Johnson, Terrence McGee, Keith Newman, Ken Irvin, Leon Seals as well as some significant underperformers.)
• Rounds 5 - 7:  No real opinion other than don't dismiss these picks.  These are interesting picks to me.  Do you get the high productivity 3-4 year college starter with limited athleticism or the athletic freak that is raw and lacking football skills?
• Do not give up 2022 draft picks - especially if 2022 will be a stronger draft class.  Keep your powder dry for 2022.

 

When you trade up, you are saying you can better assess players without seeing them in your camp and your system (and in a year when tape and games were limited) than once you get them into camp.  Without a 4th, bringing in 7 players is not excessive.

Edited April 20, 2021 by In Summary
Forgot about the 2nd 5th rounder.

[LEBills]

I hope move back. I think we pick at 30.

[1st&ten]

#2----Stand Pat----get a good player.

 

I think Beane might move up in the 2nd round.

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This year I will likely watch the Draft from my living room and wait and wait for the Bills to select.  (This drafting at #30 is a new phenomenon) After pick #10 I think anything can happen.  I don't see Beane selling the farm to move up into the top ten, but I could see him go after a "difference maker" in the teens and early twenties if he can swing a deal.   The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

 

One can only hope that those awkward man hugs will be eliminated in the C-19 enviornment....my guess if the guy Beane wants is hanging there in the early 20's I agree with you Inigo I think he pulls the trigger....

[MJS]

I could see them trade up a few spots. Or trade down. The least likely thing for Beane to do is stay put. He is always wheelin' and dealin'.

Edited April 20, 2021 by MJS

[colin]

he's 100% gonna move up and or down, i'd bet up.  question is, when and where?  i think we have a solid shot at staying at 30, and only a move up a few spots as has been mentioned for not so early of pics would be on the table.

 

i expect a move up in the 2nd or 3rd round.  i could see us getting a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rd round players, because this roster is gonna be hard for rookies to make.

[ticketssince61]

10 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.  

 

 Very Funny!

[just1hugheser]

I was gonna start a thread because my idea is so crazy I'll tuck it in here.

 

Trade with the LV Raiders, we give up 30, 3rd in 2022, 161, and maybe another late rounder or two like a 6th and 7th, but I'm going on the idea that the Raiders want back into the late 1st so they are willing to lose 50 or so points on the trade value chart.

 

We get 48,79,80, 121 so we get another 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th

 

so now we have

2nd) 48-  Tyson Campbell

2nd) 61-   Creed Humphrey

3rd) 79-   Alim McNeil

3rd) 80-  Roche/Perkins

3rd) 93-  Brevin Jordan

4th) 121-  BPA WR

5th) 174-   CB/S

 

etc.

[Augie]

11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

 

I’m pretty sure it will be one of the three.   

 

It will all depend upon how the board falls. Beane will be Beane, and he’s not afraid to move around. 

 

.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Augie

[Thurman#1]

In the first? More likely back than forward. And if he goes forward it certainly won't be into the teens. That would essentially mean giving up a 2nd or a 3rd or a high pick from next year. He's not going to do that. I mean, if you go from #30 to #18, that's 280 points, which is equivalent to a later 2nd rounder. He's not going to give up that kind of bounty.

 

He has zero history of doing that kind of thing excepting the year when they'd spent the year before accumulating extra picks to go up and get a QB in the 1st.

 

Going up to 23, particularly 25, 27 .. yeah, I can imagine it. Much more likely down, though, IMO.

 

Later in the draft he's shown he's more willing to go up a bit. That's the best guess, I think.

[CaptnCoke11]

16 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

Could be trade up twice.   6th and 7th rounders will have a tough time making this team.   So they trade up in the 1st using a a 5th.  Then using their 6th and 7th trade back up into the 5th

I highly doubt you can trade up in the 1st using only a 5th.  Maybe 1 spot 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, just1hugheser said:

I was gonna start a thread because my idea is so crazy I'll tuck it in here.

 

Trade with the LV Raiders, we give up 30, 3rd in 2022, 161, and maybe another late rounder or two like a 6th and 7th, but I'm going on the idea that the Raiders want back into the late 1st so they are willing to lose 50 or so points on the trade value chart.

 

We get 48,79,80, 121 so we get another 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th

 

so now we have

2nd) 48-  Tyson Campbell

2nd) 61-   Creed Humphrey

3rd) 79-   Alim McNeil

3rd) 80-  Roche/Perkins

3rd) 93-  Brevin Jordan

4th) 121-  BPA WR

5th) 174-   CB/S

 

etc.

 

 

That's not 50 points the Raiders would be giving up. More like 857 to 695, so on the order of 162 points. Next year's 3rd is valued as a 4th this year, and a mid-4th-rounder would be around 50 points.

 

Don't see the Bills giving up a next year's 3rd either. Not unless they then are confident they can turn one of those 3rds this year into a 3rd next year mid-draft.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

Too early to tell.  You have to see who is getting picked earlier in round 1.

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, All I Need is Hope said:

I agree that if there's a run on edge rushers or CB's and there's one that Beane likes, he'll trade up.  Someone like Paye, Ojulari, Horn or Surtain get to 20 or so, I could see a trade up.

 

We don't need a lot of developmental players or depth, we need high end contributors this year.

 

 

We absolutely need a lot of developmental players and depth. Beane said they're doing this for contributions this year, more for the long-term than the short. Next year or two there'll be plenty of guys who they have to let go for cap reasons or age. If the replacements are on the roster, on rookie contracts and have a year in the system, that will be huge.

[freddyjj]

Beane has never moved down in draft as Bills GM but may this year if his impact guys are gone.  Could then see him use acquired picks and our 2 5th rounders to move up and target players on Day 2 as he has done that before.  

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I think we stand pat and Beane trades into the 4th round 

[TBBills]

We dont have the roster spots to really move back, moving up a few times is probably going to happen.

[JaCrispy]

I am 100% against sacrificing capital to trade up...9 times out of 10 the player never lives up to the cost...and the FO has not proven they can be trusted, when picking defensive talent, on a consistent enough basis to take that chance...this team will need its picks for the future...

Edited April 21, 2021 by JaCrispy

[MarkyMannn]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

DVR the draft.

 

I get all the logic on trading back.  Just the same I despise trading back.  Rather trade up

[maryland-bills-fan]

We have the starting player roster points filled. This draft is funny.  There are a number  15-20 of sure first round players.  Then there are a lot of high second tier players at positions of interest to the Bills.  (Corner, edge and  O-line) that are about equal value..   The Bills should trade down from their first pick and trade up from their second pick  OR trade down from their first and trade up from their 3rd round pick.  They would like to get two picks in the top 50 and another in the top 75.

 

We are guessing what they intend on upgrading the running back position.  The Bills run the ball 38% of the time(21st most in the nlf) and getting a home run hitter there who can also catch passes, would be the biggest single player improvement in the team.  If that is the case in their heads, then stand pat at #30, if two RB are taken ahead of our pick.

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I highly doubt you can trade up in the 1st using only a 5th.  Maybe 1 spot 

 

The Saints at #28 may be interested in Bills 1st 5th rounder and 6th.  It's one of the few UP moves I can see Beane doing if one of his guys are there.

Saints are rebuilding and don't have a 5th rounder.

[just1hugheser]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's not 50 points the Raiders would be giving up. More like 857 to 695, so on the order of 162 points. Next year's 3rd is valued as a 4th this year, and a mid-4th-rounder would be around 50 points.

 

Don't see the Bills giving up a next year's 3rd either. Not unless they then are confident they can turn one of those 3rds this year into a 3rd next year mid-draft.

 

yea i know I was just messing about, I like the idea of fleecing a team that wants to get back into the first and i wanted their 3rd rounders

[4thandGoal]

I think I seen this post before but with a different title... a few times but what the heck-- we will probably see it again 2 or 3 more times before draft.