Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?

[Tipster19]

I don’t expect for the Bills to just stand pat at the 30th pick overall unless for reason there is a serious slide of talent of need. If not then which train of thought would be more beneficial, trading up or trading back? I would think that either way could be influenced by the salary cap reduction. By trading up I would think that it would take some serious draft capital (multiple picks) to get in position of acquiring a serious talent, especially of one of need. Now who or what position that would be I cannot say but by doing this this would create one big contract and spending less money on multiple draft picks all the while of having a 1st rd player who provide the Bills with a 5th year option. 
 

In trading back the Bills could accumulate multiple players, providing a better chance of filling needs with smaller contracts. Drafting for LBs and OL, very good players could be found in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rds. Expecting to be losing some players due to the salary cap reduction (*see Milano) it would be the prudent way of balancing the ledger but the influx of young inexperience players might not be in the best interest of the window of opportunity that the Bills are currently in. This might though allow the Bills to add some mid range veterans through free agency to help offset the mass addition of young draftees. 
 

So which would be a better fit for the Bills, drafting for a higher quality of player of need in the 1st rd and have less picks or to draft for a quantity of lower draft picks?

[TC in St. Louis]

Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the first and is willing to be generous, let's do it.  You do lose the 5th year of control once you leave the first round, though.  That may be a factor.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

[Augie]

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up? 

 

I like the idea of trading back for more cheap talent, but I’ll trust the guys who are paid to do this for a living. They seem pretty good so far. 

[LABILLBACKER]

As much as I'd kill to trade up and go after Pitts, it would be foolish and way too costly. Because of the pandemic this whole season was upside down. Most college players have less tape to go off of. Draft picks this season will be much riskier. And the lower cap puts us in a weaker position to sign the players we desperately need like "in the trenches". The correct strategy for Beane I feel is to trade back and get that extra 2nd round pick and maybe a 4th? Obviously there's so many players you'd like to snag. Najee Harris, Boogie Basham, a killer 1tech or a run blocking guard. Maybe a LB to replace Milano? We'll need to walk away from all the players Ethan mentioned and maybe a few more. It's all about beating KC from here on out. And a pass rusher should be #1 priority. 

[BruceVilanch]

I think we'll have a better idea after FA shakes out and we see where we are, but I believe Beane has moved up every draft so my money would be on a trade up.

[BillsShredder83]

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few players ready to help push the needle at this point. I could be wrong, but that's been my thought process going into this draft

[Doc Brown]

I like the idea of always having that 5th year option every year so staying put at 30 and taking the best player available at an area of need/depth is fine with me.

[MJS]

Either... or neither. Whichever.

[Punching Bag]

I think it is too early until they determine who is staying, who is going and who is available in free agency. 

If draft was before it would be different but it isn't.

[billsbackto81]

Depending on the cost I'd trade up for a difference maker. Pass Rusher, CB or RB, in that order.

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I think we'll have a better idea after FA shakes out and we see where we are, but I believe Beane has moved up every draft so my money would be on a trade up.

Well if the past predicts the future, he very well may trade up, but not necessarily do it in the first.  It could be going from a low 2nd to a high 2nd.

 

I don’t have it, but someone posts every year the trade value Jimmy Johnson or others assess to value of a pick.  I don’t care to see it now, but after free agency calms down, on can make an intelligent argument for going from one spot to another.

[JaCrispy]

Can’t afford to trade up this year...have to be more frugal...we are not 1 piece away...

[GunnerBill]

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

[cage]

That's probably too hard to predict from #30.  Given that they are transitioning to a point where our good players need to be re-signed, there will be a need to balance that out with cheaper talent.  I'd like to see us trade back if they can pick up an extra #3 or something like that.  However, Beane tends to get excited about players that he's targeting and has typically been more aggressive to trade up.  I imagine that the cost will prevent him from doing so and he'll stay disciplined and pick someone at #30.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

The membership of TBD, and the rest of the Buffalo fanbase concur with Dr. Rumack:

 

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

I could definitely see them trading back. With Allen's contract looming, the need for talented young players on their rookie contracts will increase. 

[JMF2006]

I am a stay where they are guy.

 

I say use all the draft picks to procure players.

 

With the lower cap they need to get at least 4 serviceable players.

 

I have a lot of confidence that Beane and crew can do that based on past performance.

[The Jokeman]

If a team is looking to move up to get a QB so have the extra year to play with (see Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, Minnesota and Tedy Bridgewater) I'm all for trading down to acquire a few more picks. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

I'm inclined to think that trading down for an extra pick in a COVID affected draft might pay off, but who the hell knows.

[Frat-Train]

Trade our 1st for Mack and a pick.  
 

 

DO IT.

 

 

You know you wanna....

[The Jokeman]

15 minutes ago, Frat-Train said:

Trade our 1st for Mack and a pick.  
 

 

DO IT.

 

 

You know you wanna....

I don't want to as that kill our salary cap. 

[DCofNC]

Play the cards dealt, if there’s somebody you really love in the mid 20’s go get him.  If not, go back and try to land a couple starters.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Play the cards dealt, if there’s somebody you really love in the mid 20’s go get him.  If not, go back and try to land a couple starters.

Yup.  Making a call as to what the Bills should do at 30 is tough the morning of the draft, but FA hasn’t even started yet.  You do your work on the prospects, set the table for some possible trades up and down and see how it all unfolds. 

[BigBuff423]

Unfortunately, this is hard to answer until Free Agency has had some time to percolate. Beane has embraced the philosophy of addressing a team's needs in FA and using the Draft as BPA (for the most part). I love this strategy and think it's the best way to utilize the two ends of the talent acquisition spectrum. However, given the uncertainty of the Cap and the unknown with a shortened and stunted college season, this question - IMO- is even harder to answer until FA settles a bit. 

 

My thought, without knowing the information I just said was necessary, would be for Beane to either trade way up for an impact player (unlikely due to future assets being required) or to trade back, given their 30th Draft position and desire to bring depth at multiple positions. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

While it depends on how it falls.....I'm a use late picks to move up a little in the 2nd and 3rd rounds type a guy. If you play your cards right you can get 3 good/solid plug and play guys that way. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

22 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

Unfortunately, this is hard to answer until Free Agency has had some time to percolate. Beane has embraced the philosophy of addressing a team's needs in FA and using the Draft as BPA (for the most part). I love this strategy and think it's the best way to utilize the two ends of the talent acquisition spectrum. However, given the uncertainty of the Cap and the unknown with a shortened and stunted college season, this question - IMO- is even harder to answer until FA settles a bit. 

 

My thought, without knowing the information I just said was necessary, would be for Beane to either trade way up for an impact player (unlikely due to future assets being required) or to trade back, given their 30th Draft position and desire to bring depth at multiple positions. 

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

Edited February 23, 2021 by Ethan in Portland

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

Ed was BPA. 

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

[auburnbillsbacker]

If it's close to your pick and there are several guys you love then stand pat or trade back a little.  If the guys you love are going fast and furious then consider trading up.  I think it all depends on the picks that are made prior to 30.  It's way to early to tell.  

[Tipster19]

53 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

33 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

Great discussion going on here, I love it and this was exactly what I was hoping for!

Personally I’m of the thinking that this is the kind of draft where the Bills do move up. Having the whole culture and process being COVID affected I think it might be wise just to try and secure a safer prospect vs scatter shot a few different players. I also like what Frat-Train was alluding to because of this very reason, trade out for a proven player, kind of like the Diggs trade philosophy. 
 

If the Bills are to stay in the 1st rd then let’s make it really count and get someone who is a difference maker, regardless of position, the Bills do have a few positions that need addressing. Personally that DT from Alabama is intriguing, adding someone like Christian Barmore to our DL would be a compliment imo.

[Royale with Cheese]

18 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

 

Great discussion going on here, I love it and this was exactly what I was hoping for!

Personally I’m of the thinking that this is the kind of draft where the Bills do move up. Having the whole culture and process being COVID affected I think it might be wise just to try and secure a safer prospect vs scatter shot a few different players. I also like what Frat-Train was alluding to because of this very reason, trade out for a proven player, kind of like the Diggs trade philosophy. 
 

If the Bills are to stay in the 1st rd then let’s make it really count and get someone who is a difference maker, regardless of position, the Bills do have a few positions that need addressing. Personally that DT from Alabama is intriguing, adding someone like Christian Barmore to our DL would be a compliment imo.

 

I think we are going defensive line in the 1st.  Someone that can free up Oliver, even on the on the passing downs.  That's why someone like Lorax was great...he used to rush from the inside.  We didn't have that this year.  Maybe that's AJE.

 

But yes, we need to get to the QB better.  You can't ever have enough guys that can get to the QB.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. 

 

Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? 
 

Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others... 

[ndirish1978]

We don't have enough ammo to trade up in the first, I could see us moving up a modest amount in the 2nd, but missing a 4th stinks this year. 

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Depending on the cost I'd trade up for a difference maker. Pass Rusher, CB or RB, in that order.

 

I agree, but it'd have to be a day 1 difference maker at Edge for me, which I'm not sure there are any. (could be wrong).  I'd trade up for the LB from ND or the one from PSU, or, if TE Pitts drops past 10, I'm trading up for him.  

 

otherwise, when I've done mocks online, (I don't trade), I'm often left thinking, eh, I could trade down here and still grab RB Williams, a great OT, DT, Guard, etc.  

Edited February 23, 2021 by RyanC883

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. 

 

Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? 
 

Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others... 

 

[NewEra]

First preference is to trade back.

 

If Pitts, parsons, or waddle slip to 20ish, I’d consider trading up.  If Kadarious Toney, Zaven Collins, Kwity Paye are there when we’re 1-4 picks away, I’d consider trading up.

[TPS]

11 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the first and is willing to be generous, let's do it.  You do lose the 5th year of control once you leave the first round, though.  That may be a factor.

Yes, the obvious answer to the question.  If someone slides that you have highly rated, draft him; if you have similar grades for players from 30-40, trade back. If the latter is the road taken, I've been thinking about, and playing around with in the simulator, a strategy for accumulating 2022 picks.  While I don't know what that draft looks like, I've been doing some trades where the Bills end up with 2 R2 and a an R3 pick in 2022.  These could be used to then trade up in that draft to get a talented edge rusher.  Just a thought...

[Tipster19]

15 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, the obvious answer to the question.  If someone slides that you have highly rated, draft him; if you have similar grades for players from 30-40, trade back. If the latter is the road taken, I've been thinking about, and playing around with in the simulator, a strategy for accumulating 2022 picks.  While I don't know what that draft looks like, I've been doing some trades where the Bills end up with 2 R2 and a an R3 pick in 2022.  These could be used to then trade up in that draft to get a talented edge rusher.  Just a thought...

Another great aspect in a COVID affected draft. Use a mulligan type philosophy this year to stack next year’s draft. That would only come from a confident and secured GM which we have in Beane. A lot to like and think about here.

[Jauronimo]

I love the philosophical trade up or trade down discussion we have every year as if you can possibly answer this question without the context of who is on the board.