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Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?


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19 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

We need help at DL/Edge, LB, 2nd CB, OG, TE,  and probably RT and RB.  
 

I think they address DE and several positions in free agency.  This will dictate how they draft.  If we can retain a few of our guys, and also sign some free agent help, then it will depend on what positions still neeed to be addressed at draft time as to how he handle it.  
 

 

Every year I remind myself we'll never get all the pieces we need.  I think with the 1-tech DT figured out, the Bills get a more effective Oliver and Edmunds so with one position fixed, you upgrade two others.  Maybe Star is still the guy, but a big DT is a need to me.  In much the same way, if the Bills can't get a new RB and TE, a solid OL player could boost the running game with the players we have.  Odd for a such a talented team to have so many perceived needs.   

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Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the fir

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up?    I

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few player

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Edited by Albany,n.y.
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45 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Every year I remind myself we'll never get all the pieces we need.  I think with the 1-tech DT figured out, the Bills get a more effective Oliver and Edmunds so with one position fixed, you upgrade two others.  Maybe Star is still the guy, but a big DT is a need to me.  In much the same way, if the Bills can't get a new RB and TE, a solid OL player could boost the running game with the players we have.  Odd for a such a talented team to have so many perceived needs.   

Totally agree. If we are gonna spend big on one guy I would target Tomlinson from the Giants. 

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53 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Sammy Watkins says hello...

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1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

Hey, I see what you did there...well played, good sir, well played...😉

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If I had to guess the player this regime will fall in love with is Owusu-Koramoah. He fills Milano's spot and also does the role they were hoping to fill with Kyle Dugger last year. I could see us trading up for him if he falls to 20.

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7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

Edmunds was likely considered the BPA at the time. Many mocks had him Top 10. I picked him occasionally in Fanspeak mocks with our 12 when he dropped, and even traded up a couple times--knowing all the while we were drafting a QB. Oliver was expected by some to go top 3. Epenesa was easily BPA as he was more often than not well within the 1st round in mocks. Ford was expected to go in the first by many. Just b/c the pick fills a need does not mean he's not BPA. You could argue just about anything fills a need. OK, if we drafted QB or WR, it would be hard to argue that it was a need pick. but we have two great safeties and solid back-ups, but people could still in retrospect call safety a need pick if we moved on from Hyde after his contract ended.

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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If I had to guess the player this regime will fall in love with is Owusu-Koramoah. He fills Milano's spot and also does the role they were hoping to fill with Kyle Dugger last year. I could see us trading up for him if he falls to 20.

Well this may be accurate I think that good LBs have been found in later rds, like from the 3rd-5th rds. Now a LB like Devin White is a absolute monster and I would love for the Bills to find a LB like him regardless of what rd. 

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Yes.

5 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Always trade up, never trade down.  If you trade up it's for a player you want.  If you trade down you have no idea what you're getting.

 

Our last 2 1st round QBs:  Josh Allen traded up for.  EJ Manuel traded down for.  I rest my case. 🤩 

 

JP Losman...

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Trade back. Unless you are targeting a QB it is a bad play to move up.  It's like taking insurance in blackjack.....sometimes it works out and you win l, but its never the right move. 

 

I really hope they do trade back from #30 to the mid/late 40s and pick up an additional mid 3rd round pick.......or even a 4th and a future 2nd, like the Colts have often done under Chris Ballard.

 

I think with all the disruptions to scouting and the entire college evaluation process this year there are going to be more finds in the mid rounds.

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To echo a few others, if there has been less opportunity to really know prospects due to COVID it seems like the more chances we have, AKA trading down, the better since everyone will be at a disadvantage (compared to other years) of nailing their first couple of picks.

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17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

 

 

Yup.

 

If it were me we'd trade back every time and amass picks. But it's not me.

 

Small ones are what he does outside of the year they accumulated draft capital in advance for the move up for a QB.

 

And a large move up would make even less sense this year when we can't bring in many FAs due to cap problems. We've got to make each of those early picks count this year.

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12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.

 

If it were me we'd trade back every time and amass picks. But it's not me.

 

Small ones are what he does outside of the year they accumulated draft capital in advance for the move up for a QB.

 

And a large move up would make even less sense this year when we can't bring in many FAs due to cap problems. We've got to make each of those early picks count this year.

It's a good strategy if you are sound at drafting in what is a gigantic crap shoot after round 1(even round 1 is a crap shoot)..... and Beane hasn't exactly demonstrated his greatness on draft day.

 

After round 1, the majority of these draft picks turn into JAG starters, back ups or not even in the league. 

 

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28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It's a good strategy if you are sound at drafting in what is a gigantic crap shoot after round 1(even round 1 is a crap shoot)..... and Beane hasn't exactly demonstrated his greatness on draft day.

 

After round 1, the majority of these draft picks turn into JAG starters, back ups or not even in the league. 

 

 

 

You can kid yourself ... yet again ... if you like, but nearly all of that is nonsense. It's not a crap shoot after round one. If it were, teams would trade 2nd rounders for 7th rounders straight up, they'd all be the same. Just pure dumbosity. 2nd rounders are more valuable than 3rds simply because you're more likely to get a better player, and 3rds are more valuable than 4ths ... this isn't rocket science, but the whole idea of a crapshoot is stupid and always has been.

 

The rest is nonsense too, for many reasons. First, teams need starters even if they're not stars, and they need backups,, and they will need them a lot more this year with limited cap to bring in FAs. Second, it's not that unusual to find truly excellent players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

Third, Beane has proven an absolutely excellent GM. Brilliant. This team has been built to a top four team, and damn fast.

 

And fourth, Beane has been very good on draft day. Fair enough that he hasn't been excellent at least so far, but he also hasn't had time to run up a final tally on most of his draft picks. The one class that's getting close to their potential enough to get a good view of them: Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson in the 4th and Wyatt Teller in the 5th, looks like he got solid value everywhere and some terrific bargains as well, starting right from Allen at #7.

 

Giving up early picks in a big tradeup for any reason other than a try at a franchise QB has been proven again and again to be an awful strategy. The Massey and Thaler study of overconfidence vs. market efficiency and the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective study are only two of a multitude that all say the same thing. Don't give away big assets in a tradeup unless a need for a franchise QB forces it. It's a move for saps and soon to be ex-GMs.

 

 

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Would trading out for a proven veteran be the best strategy due to the uncertainty of  the lack of scouting, no combine etc etc due to COVID? Not saying the Bills should, just asking if they should.

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Unless Pitts or someone like that slides your not trading up. I do however think they could stay at 30 and trade it away at the last second according on what's there.

 

Good chance you could get an additional pick and still get Najee Harris, Wyatt Teller or someone of that assortment. 

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Normally I'd prefer that Beane trade the high picks for a proven game changer since Allen is the only solid value he's gotten in the top 2 rounds, but this year our cap situation demands that we get solid day 1 starters in those rounds. Depending on other moves in FA or trade, I would expect us to stay put and take a CB or Edge Rusher or OT. I'll be disappointed if we go for a LB or RB or TE in the 1st round unless there is a generational talent available there, but we'd have to trade way up for that.

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My question is who is trading up this year? I wonder if Covid doesn’t severely limit the movement in the draft, and most teams just kind of stand pat. Unless a QB like Trey Lance or Mac Jones are there and someone wants to really go after it, I don’t know how much movement there will be at all.

 

of course I could be totally wrong and we could see tons of trades. 

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