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Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?


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Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the fir

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up?    I

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few player

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Play the cards dealt, if there’s somebody you really love in the mid 20’s go get him.  If not, go back and try to land a couple starters.

Yup.  Making a call as to what the Bills should do at 30 is tough the morning of the draft, but FA hasn’t even started yet.  You do your work on the prospects, set the table for some possible trades up and down and see how it all unfolds. 

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Unfortunately, this is hard to answer until Free Agency has had some time to percolate. Beane has embraced the philosophy of addressing a team's needs in FA and using the Draft as BPA (for the most part). I love this strategy and think it's the best way to utilize the two ends of the talent acquisition spectrum. However, given the uncertainty of the Cap and the unknown with a shortened and stunted college season, this question - IMO- is even harder to answer until FA settles a bit. 

 

My thought, without knowing the information I just said was necessary, would be for Beane to either trade way up for an impact player (unlikely due to future assets being required) or to trade back, given their 30th Draft position and desire to bring depth at multiple positions. 

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22 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

Unfortunately, this is hard to answer until Free Agency has had some time to percolate. Beane has embraced the philosophy of addressing a team's needs in FA and using the Draft as BPA (for the most part). I love this strategy and think it's the best way to utilize the two ends of the talent acquisition spectrum. However, given the uncertainty of the Cap and the unknown with a shortened and stunted college season, this question - IMO- is even harder to answer until FA settles a bit. 

 

My thought, without knowing the information I just said was necessary, would be for Beane to either trade way up for an impact player (unlikely due to future assets being required) or to trade back, given their 30th Draft position and desire to bring depth at multiple positions. 

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

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5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

Ed was BPA. 

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10 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

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53 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

33 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

Great discussion going on here, I love it and this was exactly what I was hoping for!


Personally I’m of the thinking that this is the kind of draft where the Bills do move up. Having the whole culture and process being COVID affected I think it might be wise just to try and secure a safer prospect vs scatter shot a few different players. I also like what Frat-Train was alluding to because of this very reason, trade out for a proven player, kind of like the Diggs trade philosophy. 
 

If the Bills are to stay in the 1st rd then let’s make it really count and get someone who is a difference maker, regardless of position, the Bills do have a few positions that need addressing. Personally that DT from Alabama is intriguing, adding someone like Christian Barmore to our DL would be a compliment imo.

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18 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

 

Great discussion going on here, I love it and this was exactly what I was hoping for!


Personally I’m of the thinking that this is the kind of draft where the Bills do move up. Having the whole culture and process being COVID affected I think it might be wise just to try and secure a safer prospect vs scatter shot a few different players. I also like what Frat-Train was alluding to because of this very reason, trade out for a proven player, kind of like the Diggs trade philosophy. 
 

If the Bills are to stay in the 1st rd then let’s make it really count and get someone who is a difference maker, regardless of position, the Bills do have a few positions that need addressing. Personally that DT from Alabama is intriguing, adding someone like Christian Barmore to our DL would be a compliment imo.

 

I think we are going defensive line in the 1st.  Someone that can free up Oliver, even on the on the passing downs.  That's why someone like Lorax was great...he used to rush from the inside.  We didn't have that this year.  Maybe that's AJE.

 

But yes, we need to get to the QB better.  You can't ever have enough guys that can get to the QB.

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1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. 

 

Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? 
 

Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others... 

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8 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Depending on the cost I'd trade up for a difference maker. Pass Rusher, CB or RB, in that order.

 

I agree, but it'd have to be a day 1 difference maker at Edge for me, which I'm not sure there are any. (could be wrong).  I'd trade up for the LB from ND or the one from PSU, or, if TE Pitts drops past 10, I'm trading up for him.  

 

otherwise, when I've done mocks online, (I don't trade), I'm often left thinking, eh, I could trade down here and still grab RB Williams, a great OT, DT, Guard, etc.  

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10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. 

 

Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? 
 

Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others... 

 

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First preference is to trade back.

 

If Pitts, parsons, or waddle slip to 20ish, I’d consider trading up.  If Kadarious Toney, Zaven Collins, Kwity Paye are there when we’re 1-4 picks away, I’d consider trading up.

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11 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the first and is willing to be generous, let's do it.  You do lose the 5th year of control once you leave the first round, though.  That may be a factor.

Yes, the obvious answer to the question.  If someone slides that you have highly rated, draft him; if you have similar grades for players from 30-40, trade back. If the latter is the road taken, I've been thinking about, and playing around with in the simulator, a strategy for accumulating 2022 picks.  While I don't know what that draft looks like, I've been doing some trades where the Bills end up with 2 R2 and a an R3 pick in 2022.  These could be used to then trade up in that draft to get a talented edge rusher.  Just a thought...

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15 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, the obvious answer to the question.  If someone slides that you have highly rated, draft him; if you have similar grades for players from 30-40, trade back. If the latter is the road taken, I've been thinking about, and playing around with in the simulator, a strategy for accumulating 2022 picks.  While I don't know what that draft looks like, I've been doing some trades where the Bills end up with 2 R2 and a an R3 pick in 2022.  These could be used to then trade up in that draft to get a talented edge rusher.  Just a thought...

Another great aspect in a COVID affected draft. Use a mulligan type philosophy this year to stack next year’s draft. That would only come from a confident and secured GM which we have in Beane. A lot to like and think about here.

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