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Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?


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11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

True, as long as the DL, OL and TE are BPA.

 

Who the Bills really need, and it’s quite simple, is BPA.

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Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the fir

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up?    I

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few player

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

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1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

Ya, you’ve always been like this in the GM meetings you’ve attended.

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I would love to see a small trade back. trading back from 30 to 37ish and picking up a 3rd for a 5th swap along with a 6th seems like a good accrual of draft picks. Getting that extra pick allows you more flexibility in moving around in the mid rounds or just allows you to draft an extra player while swapping a 3rd for a 5th gets you better position to get more impact players for a team that will likely have depth and holes to fill come the draft. Moving up big time to get a prime pass rusher isn't a terrible idea but that is putting all or most of your draft capital and possibly future capital on the line for one player (that isn't a QB) which is a risky move. 

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1 hour ago, Tipster19 said:

Another great aspect in a COVID affected draft. Use a mulligan type philosophy this year to stack next year’s draft. That would only come from a confident and secured GM which we have in Beane. A lot to like and think about here.

Playing around, here's one version (I only do 4 rounds):

Traded back with Cin to get 38 and their 2022 R2

38. K Toney WR Florida

61. Aaron Robinson CB UCF

93. Q. Meinerz C WI-Whitewater

 

Two R2 picks in 2022 could move them up to the 10-12 range. I've done some where I've gotten 2 R2 picks or an R2 and R3, and still drafted some decent players that would fill some needs.  Now, in the real world ...

 

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The only thing better than 1 gigantic angry man in the early/mid rounds of the draft?

 

TWO gigantic angry men in round 2-4 of the draft!

 

Trade back, pick up an extra 2nd from a team that has 2 and get the largest, most talented, most angry men you can find in round 2. then BPA for the rest of the draft. 

 

With an extra 350+ pound DT in the late rounds as a flyer.  

 

 

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My ROT is to ALWAYS trade back (unless you need to jump to 7 to pick Josh Allen).  You trade up to get a generational talent, like Sammy Wat...er, John McCar...er, JP Los...er, TJumptomakeacatch Gra...er, Cody For....er, Khalil Mack!! (yeah, that was the ticket, freakin' Whaley)

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Trade out of the 1st, get a second/third. Would love to see the FO even trade back further by giving up next year 1 for another 2/3 this year and stockpile draft picks for the furture holes. Hit on cap will be lowered (rookie contracts), and we could possibly load the OL/DL for the next 2-3 yrs. Yeah I know pipe dream, but there are takers out there.

 

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1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Usually I'm guy that if you're picking in the top 15.  If there's someone you really want, go get him. 

 

But picking at 30...how much of a difference is that guy from a mid 2nd rounder as far as grades?  I would be open to us trading back and getting more trades unless there's someone you absolutely love sitting at 30.

Exactly right.  If there is no one worth drafting when your pick is up then find someone who wants to move up the board to select no one good and move back in the draft.  But if there is someone you love on the board then you should always move up to get them and its generally impolite for teams to deny your trade request.  The only thing we cannot afford to do is stand pat and select a guy with the 30th pick unless that guy is someone we really like. 

 

In conclusion always trade back unless you should trade up and never stay in your slot unless its a good idea.

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well, we need one quality starter (judged by the end of the season/playoffs) at OG or DE/DT or LB in this draft.  we also need quality production at 2 or 3 of those positions (assuming we get a starter), as well as CB, RB, and TE.  im thinking we can get a solid and nasty guard early, TE and RB between rounds 2 and 5, and fill in the rest as we go.  so based on that, i say you trade up if you think you have a shot at another rueben brown or something at OG, or a human missile at OLB (or MLB and we move edmunds, whatever).  a real cover corner or pass rusher IMO will just not likely be there at the end of the first, unless he's a bit of a project, so OG i think is the target.

 

now, if there are like 3 who will be there for our 2nd pick that we like, then totally trade down, maybe get a 2nd and a 3rd, and use that plus our 2nd to go OG, OLB, and one of TE,RB,CB, or DL.

 

 

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If the right player slides to #24 or #25 I could see a small move up, if the board falls another way at #30 and there is interest in the pick I could see a small move back. Both are on the table IMO.

 

This is where I’m at. 

 

Not a monumental jump up, but if there’s “that guy” you really want 4-5 picks away - do it. 

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We need help at DL/Edge, LB, 2nd CB, OG, TE,  and probably RT and RB.  
 

I think they address DE and several positions in free agency.  This will dictate how they draft.  If we can retain a few of our guys, and also sign some free agent help, then it will depend on what positions still neeed to be addressed at draft time as to how he handle it.  
 

 

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46 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Exactly right.  If there is no one worth drafting when your pick is up then find someone who wants to move up the board to select no one good and move back in the draft.  But if there is someone you love on the board then you should always move up to get them and its generally impolite for teams to deny your trade request.  The only thing we cannot afford to do is stand pat and select a guy with the 30th pick unless that guy is someone we really like. 

 

In conclusion always trade back unless you should trade up and never stay in your slot unless its a good idea.

 

Finally someone has cracked the code.

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Hold or trade back.  Only trade up for a QB IMO.  Beane reaches and ends up with Cody Ford and Edmunds.  Also, you have to decide whether you're going to cut down the number of rookies you bring in BEFORE they ever step on your practice field with your coaches and get evaluated in your system OR you bring in a full compliment of rookies to evaluate (again) on your field with your coaches in your system with your players etc. and do a proper Bills evaluation for a month or so before making cuts.  To many holes to get cute trading up.  Get these guys into camp and look at them then.

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No way to tell until the draft is happening, and we get a better idea of where prospects are going.

 

Good GMs utilize all of the tools in their belt, and don't push themselves into a corner with a "single philosophy" on roster construction.  Sometimes trading up is the best move.  Sometimes trading down is better.  Sometimes you stay put.

 

I recall when Marv Levy was hired as GM, and he spoke about good teams only building through the draft.  He was very reluctant to participate in Free Agency or retain guys with expiring contracts (but ironically still managed to overpay tremendously for average players).  Buddy Nix pretty much refused to consider a trade up in the draft, and we always seemed to be 1-2 picks away from getting that true difference maker.

 

 

 

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