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The weakness of Coach McD


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I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

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McD has shown he knows what he knows (an above average D for all 3 years) and that he knows what he doesnt know (a below average O)  which I think he has out-sourced to Daboll; point being he wont take over the O-side play calls as he has done on the D side at least once (chargers game second half) ..a big O-side miss was drafting Zay Jones that high and missing and not drafting an NFL MVP in Mahomes at the critical qb position which is a whole debate of it own.   As much as I would like to rag on his O-line there are three second rounders in the starting 5 (Dawkins, Ford, Morse) and the guards are the more fungible-replaceable  which is a proper cap strategy..flame on comprades

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If Atlanta was more conservative they would be NFL champs.  It is easy in retrospect to say yes/no but both approaches can work.  Even if a low probability it will sometimes hit.

 

it would be interesting to see a large sample size on the strategies to see the historical results.  The problem with football is the amount of variables.  What works against one defense may not work against another in same down/distance/field position.

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My buddy who is a Bears fan came over to watch the playoff game with me. Most fans would be excited about being up 13-0 at the half of an away playoff game. I wasn’t. I told him the Bills would come out completely different and play conservative on offense and put the game in the hands of the defense.  That’s exactly what happened. I saw it all year and there was no reason to expect otherwise. 
 

I truly think McD gets off on his defense. Haha. I think he wants his offense to do just enough and wants to see his defense close out games. It’s in his DNA. If he wants to be one of the best HCs in the game (and I believe he can be), then he needs to play to win on both sides. This is a lesson I think he learned from that game. We will see...

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54 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

 

 

 

Losing when you win the turnover battle isn't the indicator of a too conservative offense. It can mean a bunch of different things ... poor defense, poor offense, bad luck, too may penalties and on and on. But if it does come down to the offense it's not so much about a too conservative offense as it is an unsuccessful offense.

 

And plenty of teams beat elite teams by running when they have the lead and the ball late in the game. You just have to do it successfully and probably have the rest of your team stand up as well.

 

He's a bit conservative for me too, but was that about belief in the defense, no faith in the pass game, was it a career-long hallmark or was it due to his belief about what he had to do with that particular team in those particular circumstances? We don't know yet.

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This is brought up a lot, McD's "conservatism". The Bills called pass to run plays of 48 to 30 in the Houston game, not sure how that is conservative. McD also has one of the highest go for it on 4th down, not sure how that is conservative either. Also the Bills averaged more yards on run plays than pass plays and that includes Allen's numbers boosted by that screen pass to Singletary. Sure there were some runs that boosted the overall YPC, but it seems like if there was a game to point to as McD being too "conservative" this is not the game to do that, If McD is that conservative in the first place.

 

Seems like people just assume because the Bills get leads and sometime loses that must mean their DC now HC must be conservative.

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I get the strategy with running 3 times after the turnover.  Hopefully you at least get into FG range, take time off the clock, and make it a 3 score game.  At worst punt and pin them deep.  They didn't keep running every play after that.

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1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

My buddy who is a Bears fan came over to watch the playoff game with me. Most fans would be excited about being up 13-0 at the half of an away playoff game. I wasn’t. I told him the Bills would come out completely different and play conservative on offense and put the game in the hands of the defense.  That’s exactly what happened. I saw it all year and there was no reason to expect otherwise. 
 

I truly think McD gets off on his defense. Haha. I think he wants his offense to do just enough and wants to see his defense close out games. It’s in his DNA. If he wants to be one of the best HCs in the game (and I believe he can be), then he needs to play to win on both sides. This is a lesson I think he learned from that game. We will see...


I mean the only TD was on a drive with some unstastainable/gimmick plays. Our QB caught a TD pass and ran 42 yards on a sweep. You can’t count on those all game long for chunk plays. We passed twice for 11 yards (excluding Brown to Allen). I was obviously excited to score but at the time was worried about how we got our chunk yards and score on the drive. We had the lead but weren’t terribly methodical on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think it was so much of a change in game plan, as much as it was the Bills catching a few breaks. 

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Sean’s flaw seems to me is in over trusting his D and not trusting the O enough, that and not giving Brian an occasional kick in the azs during games, it is situational conservatism that is his bane. That and player discipline/execution. It is my hope he has learned a hard lesson during the regular season and especially in that playoff game, and he actually changes his strategies to accommodate needed changes. But we all need to keep in mind these very same things can be said of coaches throughout the history of the game. It is hardly ever black and white, it is mostly shades of grey. 

 

 Go Bills!!!

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7 minutes ago, Mango said:


I mean the only TD was on a drive with some unstastainable/gimmick plays. Our QB caught a TD pass and ran 42 yards on a sweep. You can’t count on those all game long for chunk plays. We passed twice for 11 yards (excluding Brown to Allen). I was obviously excited to score but at the time was worried about how we got our chunk yards and score on the drive. We had the lead but weren’t terribly methodical on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think it was so much of a change in game plan, as much as it was the Bills catching a few breaks. 

We scored on the first drive and you were instantly worried?   We’re a different breed

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I agree with the OP.  Being too conservative is a big problem, and until McD fixes this, he will not see pass the Divisional round...if even that.

 

You have to keep attacking offensively, even with a lead.  Look at Pederson, Payton, Belichick; they all keep attacking and don't change what works until it doesn't.  If Daboll starts to change his play calls to go away from what got them the lead, it is up to McD to bring him back.  On defense, McD and Frazier need to understand that prevent defenses only prevent you from winning; the Houston game should be exhibit 'A' even though the linebackers were way too far back in that 3rd and 18 play.  This formation never should have been called.  Throughout NFL history, teams that play prevent only end up losing since it gives the offense 10 yard chunks, first downs, and before you know it a chance to win or at least tie the game.  I don't understand this line of thinking, like McD thinks his defense will not succumb to the perils of the prevent D.

 

I keep hearing on this board that McD is all about improvement, learning from mistakes, etc, etc.  He hasn't really shown this on the coaching philosophy side of things, and that is why the Bills under McD will only go so far.  Maybe the light will come on, but until it does, all the accolades he receives now will eventually start to fade and McD will be seen as limited.  McD has potential...but will he realize it?

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12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We scored on the first drive and you were instantly worried?   We’re a different breed

 Dude, happy we scored, said it right in the post. 
 

And yes, in the back of my mind (especially after the second drive) I worried for an offense that has had difficulty sustaining drives and finding the end zone, scored on a drive with a 40+ yard QB run and a flea flicker. The very next drive was 9 yards and a punt. 
 

Turns out, we never found the end zone again, even after getting the ball at the HOU 35 off of a turn over. The offense did not have much of a rhythm. And it ended up being the type of offensive game I was worried about. Can’t find the end zone, can’t put up points outside of a few gimmick plays. 

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7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 Dude, happy we scored, said it right in the post. 
 

And yes, in the back of my mind (especially after the second drive) I worried for an offense that has had difficulty sustaining drives and finding the end zone, scored on a drive with a 40+ yard QB run and a flea flicker. The very next drive was 9 yards and a punt. 
 

Turns out, we never found the end zone again, even after getting the ball at the HOU 35 off of a turn over. The offense did not have much of a rhythm. And it ended up being the type of offensive game I was worried about. Can’t find the end zone, can’t put up points outside of a few gimmick plays. 

Yeah, you did say happy that you scored and at the same time you were worried.  The second drive hadn’t happened at that point.  Maybe if you weren’t so worried, we would’ve scored!  I’m blaming you!

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I agree. I pointed this out last season in an early game how Mcd was not aggressive enough with 47 seconds left and multiple timeouts at the end of the half.

 

This game

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=401128106

 

The other classic instance was, of course, the playoff game described in OP. However, I attribute the playoff loss to three other factors ahead of coaching conservatism:

 

1. Inability to convert solid drives into TDs and settling for FGs

2. Defense (including Tre) not playing up to its abilities in the second half

3. Phantom penalties against the Bills.

 

That being said, I think McD himself is aware of the play calling shortcoming. He himself said that he made mistakes in the playoff game and said looking to what went wrong starts with looking at his own decisions.

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3 hours ago, Doc said:

Is it McD or Daboll?  And shouldn't they be giving Josh the ability to audible out of a run if they're stacking the box?


 

wouldn’t all of those be McD, ultimately? 
 

sure on a micro level any single call isn’t but overall strategy and how long of a leash the qb gets are both a reflection on the HC 

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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Losing when you win the turnover battle isn't the indicator of a too conservative offense. It can mean a bunch of different things ... poor defense, poor offense, bad luck, too may penalties and on and on. But if it does come down to the offense it's not so much about a too conservative offense as it is an unsuccessful offense.

 

And plenty of teams beat elite teams by running when they have the lead and the ball late in the game. You just have to do it successfully and probably have the rest of your team stand up as well.

 

He's a bit conservative for me too, but was that about belief in the defense, no faith in the pass game, was it a career-long hallmark or was it due to his belief about what he had to do with that particular team in those particular circumstances? We don't know yet.

I agree with this. McDermott studies everything, I clouding the strategies that will maximize winning in different circumstances. That study is what informs his decision making.  When he has a lead in the third quarter and gets conservative it's because his study indicates being conservative is the right move. His team hasn't executed.  

 

I also agree that it's too conservative for my taste, but McD knows a lot more about it than I do.  

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13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this. McDermott studies everything, I clouding the strategies that will maximize winning in different circumstances. That study is what informs his decision making.  When he has a lead in the third quarter and gets conservative it's because his study indicates being conservative is the right move. His team hasn't executed.  

 

I also agree that it's too conservative for my taste, but McD knows a lot more about it than I do.  

This approach may work better this year. Singletary and Moss>>> Singletary and Gore

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5 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

I don’t disagree in general with what you’re saying , but the Houston or any other game when you are up by 16 points the plan is use the clock don’t turn the ball over and let your defense close the game for you ,, 

 

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Plays to be made on both sides of the ball.  JB's messed up footwork at the sideline, Duke not securing the difficult catch in the end zone, missed block on JA's OT QB sweep (he might have scored) bogus PF on Cody, LB's dropped too deep on a 3rd and 17 in OT, two missed tackles on Watson's OT game deciding play.  These were all big failures not on the coaching imo and I probably missed some others.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

 

I tend to agree with your assessment. I would add to your comment that right before halftime, it seemed as though He was playing for the field goal instead of a backbreaking touchdown. I do think that he learns from his mistakes though. Let's hope.

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I’m sorry but the jury is still out on McD as a HC.  Bills had a joke of a schedule last year. They lost games to non-playoff teams in Cleveland and Philadelphia. They were losing the home opener before the Jets lost their MLB. And has been pointed out they choked in the playoffs.  He has yet to beat Belichick in six attempts despite doing a good job against Brady. But his team plays hard though his defense collapses at times. He has seemingly found the right balance between motivator, teacher, and just enough accountability. I believe he puts too much emphasis on ST Role players and not enough on pass rushers.

He has no excuses. This is the team he wanted. Only an AFC East title and deep playoff run will be acceptable. 

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3 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

People always remember the games lost by conservatism but always forget the games won by it.

... and it was a struggle to win on many of those occasions because of that conservative strategy.  It always gives your opponent a chance to win when you in effect stop trying to score more points, and play prevent “D”. 
 

Hey Sean, ya you McDermott,  stop pretending your defense is going to score points,  last season, zero of them... its why you have an offense... and yes, kick Brian in the azs during games now and then... ??
 

Go Bills!!!

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45 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I’m sorry but the jury is still out on McD as a HC.  Bills had a joke of a schedule last year. They lost games to non-playoff teams in Cleveland and Philadelphia. They were losing the home opener before the Jets lost their MLB. And has been pointed out they choked in the playoffs.  He has yet to beat Belichick in six attempts despite doing a good job against Brady. But his team plays hard though his defense collapses at times. He has seemingly found the right balance between motivator, teacher, and just enough accountability. I believe he puts too much emphasis on ST Role players and not enough on pass rushers.

He has no excuses. This is the team he wanted. Only an AFC East title and deep playoff run will be acceptable. 

Believe me I hear what you’re saying.   
 

At the same time though I’m just not sure any Bills fan can really be too hard on Sean.   I mean it was a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in 17 years and he was able to

accomplish that twice in his first three seasons.  All the while seemingly changing the culture around the team where I felt prior regimes just tweaked things here or there.

 

There’s ways he can improve no doubt but you’d have to say he’s been solid overall so far no?   Btw, Eagles were a playoff team last year 

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I said a lot of the same things before last season about McDermott needing to be more aggressive with game management.  I got flamed by a couple of long-time posters and let it go, wanted to watch the 2019 season play out.  Well, despite the overall positive results, there were more than enough games that we lost where lack of aggressiveness played a large role.

 

I do agree that he's working hard to get better and not being stubborn about just doing things "his way", (unlike so many of our past failed coaches).  Hopefully a more talented offense moves the needle in the right direction.

 

But on the flip side, let's not pat him on the back too much.  The success of the past 3 season has been as much about not tripping over our own d*cks, as it has been about playing well enough to win.  Last season, we had an all time easy schedule and largely took advantage of it.  But the next step is about outplaying AND outcoaching the best teams in the league.  McDermott and the team definitely haven't shown enough in that department

 

This year will end up saying a lot about this topic

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7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Agree with your premise but the Houston game was the complete opposite approach.... just over the top aggressive playcalling. In OT I don't think they ran the ball once. 

 

Agree somewhat with the Patriots game. The Steelers game was the most frustrating offensive game plan I've seen. Just ridiculously conservative. 

 

I said it all year. The Bills never went for another score when they had the ball with the lead before halftime in a 2 minute type of situation. 

 

 

Yep.

 

Playing not to lose is not a good strategy.  And the Houston game was just mind-boggling stupidity.

 

I'll also add that McDermott is HORRIBLE at challenges.  One of the worst.

 

 

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8 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

Last year’s playoff game was the complete opposite of conservative we should’ve been running the ball instead the ball was taking kill shots of passage to the end zone that wide receivers were not catching Devon was actually having a good game and we should’ve been running the ball especially with a lead

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I will agree that there were some moments that I wish they had gone for the jugular last year. But, you also have to take into account the offense itself and McD's confidence in them connecting on certain plays or down and distance. For instance, in 2017, we would have never made the playoffs if he let that offense wing it. Relying on his defense and playing conservatively on offense is actually what got that team to the post season. And even last year, we were much better, but the offense still struggled mightily in some games. It is kind of like having a kicker that you know is money from inside 45, but struggles over that. Well, if it's fourth down and a FG try would be from 51, you probably go for it on fourth rather than try the FG because you are not confident in your kicker.

 

Hopefully this year the offense will take off and McD will have the confidence in them to sling it around, go for it, and not play too conservatively. But outside of maybe one or two games, I think he has managed games pretty well in that regard thus far.

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9 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game.

 

This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat.

Good points Wide Left.  I don't think the playcalling of going too conservative is the issue as much as the game day roster.  Gore Dimarco Foster and Lee Smith gave us no production.  Yeldon Sweeney and Duke Williams should have been playing the entire second half of the season.  We were severely lacking in offensive firepower  last year.  

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