JESSEFEFFER

These videos do reveal some of "the process," sugary baked goods included. We only get to see the parts that they want us to see or that they can let us see (we probably can't see comments about players taken by other teams, for instance) but even the UDFA signings process have a process. Beane cares about every player he puts on the roster. I think it really bothers him when he loses out on his coveted players. It explains the trade ups he's made over the years more than anything else, imo. Small investments to make to ensure the player you wanted didn't go to another team and you have lingering feelings of regret.

It drops at 7 PM tonight. I love these highly edited, extended PR videos and look forward to them after every draft. Very well done and we get to see some of the decision making process and the draft room interactions. So, we do learn something from them. Sad Kim still can't be there to offer her home baked cookies to the room and have McD make a face when he was offered.

Let's hope that Keon Coleman is the 2018 Josh Allen of the 2024 WR prospects. I think I phrased that correctly. The conversation feels like deja vu all over again-ish as it's the rematch of the analytics crowd vs. the scouting community. This leads the discussion to whether he is self aware, can take coaching and is willing to do whatever it takes to shape his skillset to be successful against the best of the best and allow his freakishly rare athletic abilities dominate opponents.

In my part of the world the story is told that Shane Conlan got the last scholarship offered in that particular class after PSU recruiters watched him play a HS basketball game. Seeing this, Keon shows elite body control as he drives the lane, does the 360 dunks, etc. That seems like a good skill that translates for a bigger WR to separate and make himself available for the ball. I can't see how he would be limited. Teams might have a problem matching up the right kind of defender with him.

Hey Augie, I do not know your profile but my sense is that as a 60ish, white, American man there are certain cultural references that I (we) should make known to our younger brethren and we need to slip these in to threads wherever they fit. So well played.

Isabella and Hamler are similar in that they were smallish, fast, early day 2 draft prospects that failed on their original teams which have proven to have been rather poor situations. There's a good chance that the Bills liked them in their draft years and are thus willing to give them a chance within their organizational walls and see what they might unlock. There is such a thing as bad luck with injuries and poor environments where one's career begins. Josh repeats his dad's "bloom where you are planted" mantra but there are some franchises that are asphalt parking lots surrounded by overfilled dumpsters. Little chance to make roots and bloom there. They are also decent candidates for one or two of the six veteran slots on the practice squad. Remember the Bills 2022 season when they were running thin in their WR group heading into the playoffs and brought Beasley and Brown back late in the season? I think Beane might be inclined to do more to prevent that from happening again.

This is a knee-jerk reaction to the "traits" of a draft prospect reminding them of a past player that was a "failure." Big bodied, "slow" poor separator from FSU = Kelvin Benjamin. Toolsy but inaccurate QB that is not pro ready and needs patience and growth = EJ Manuel. See how that works? Ben Solak of the Ringer about to come on WGR and tell them why Coleman is a good fit and how the reading of his analytical profile lacks context.

Tee's RAS:

The idea of trading for an established WR who is due a second contract is appealing to some. Tee Higgins has been a name that has circulated. Coleman shares a very similar body type and athletic profile with Tee. I haven't seen any comps to him but I'll say it seeing some would be happy if we made a trade for him. In many athletic respects, Keon has him beat.

Plus, there's the added entertainment value of seeing heads explode with another trade down. Say there are 5 teams in the bidding and they're chewing on it for another 8 hours, someone should offer something sweet. I said Carolina because of the Dan Morgan thing and #33 was theirs to begin with, but I like your ideas just fine as well.

I think there is a great chance that they trade out of #33. The Bills have almost 9 more hours to field calls from teams that see a prospect there that they covet and there will be enough interest to create a sellers market. That's enough interest and time for someone to make the Bills an offer that they can't refuse and the Bills get the 4th "Top 100" pick that we've been discussing. Maybe with Carolina again, give them #33 and #204 for #39 and and #101. A trade that's both "close enough" to the Top 100 goal and ironic.

That is one top 100 pick acquired and one to go, There's plenty of 4th and 5th round capital to get the next one and have a total of 4 in the top 100. Or maybe some team will overpay for #33 after examining their board overnight. Just sayin'.

He had D K Metcalf at the top of round 1 his draft year also. That's him being true to his evaluation, imo. Pick a combo block, hit a seam, break an arm tackle and go. May be a great KO return guy in the new format.

The mock drafts I have liked the most involved a trade back and a WR double dip. Four picks in the top 100 seems compatible with those ideas. Greg Tompsett of Cover1 used the analogy of needing to hit a bullseye and it being better to have more premium darts rather than taking a step or two closer to the board but only having one. The Bills had many darts in the 1985 draft and the 4th round, 2nd WR they drafted made the H-o-F. I also can't see the Bills staying put at 28. Every other team knows the Bills have that glaring need and those having the same need have every incentive to jump in front of the Bills and get any valued talent that might have fallen there.

If you have predraft media coverage fatigue and 3 months is enough time for your post playoff loss soul to recover, J T has dropped his review of Josh's playoff loss performance. These are always informative and well done, imo. The QB School--JA17 and the playoff loss to the Chiefs

I think WR production is more at the mercy of HC/OC/QB/OL circumstances than any position other than QB. So, if you are the Bills and you can identify a WR who you had a high grade on in their draft year but you are convinced came into the NFL into a poor situation or has had bad injury luck, you should be able to get him for less investment and on a cheaper deal and have a reason to believe that they have a shot to thrive with the Bills. It's the nature vs. nurture argument. Foster, Brown, Beasley, Diggs all had better years with the Bills and Josh than they had previously. Burks may or may not be such a candidate but there must be others.

Maybe they draft Patrick Mahomes. Terry and Doug liked him we were told but there is no way that a lame duck GM gets to make the franchise altering, QB choice. That choice was clearly going to be made in 2018. I think if they hadn't lost that game to the Dolphins in OT where there were only 10 on the field after a timeout, Rex might not have been fired.

If they go into the draft with the present WR need so clearly evident, they almost can't stay put. If any decent value 1st round talent is falling toward them, every other WR needy team has every reason to trade in front of the Bills and take him. Beane has had it happen to him before and I think that is why he trades up so often. Probably one of the worst feelings of regret that he ever gets is when he can see a targeted talent falling to him only to lose him while only a few picks away. He usually does everything he can to go into the draft without such an obvious need. But, this year looks different.

Driving a proper vehicle will not be of benefit to anyone if it runs into a multicar pileup during a whiteout.

I'd say once they are in as a 2 seed, the answer is close to 20 percent. ( .7 x .6 x .45)

I think the purpose of this site is to look for meaningful and predictive tools at determining point spreads and looks for value vs. the "Vegas" number. This says that Josh is the most valuable point spread QB (MVPS.) I like many of the other things at the website. It has the Bills at #2 That is a classic. It should be mentioned by Josh's presenter at his Hall-of-Fame ceremony.

Ok. I haven't thought I could add much to this discussion other than there is no other QB I'd rather have for the Bills than Josh. This is true in most every way conceivable. He has exceeded all reasonable expectations in almost every way possible. But, I was doing some self educating and found the NFelo website and took this snip. I tell my kids that math is beautiful because it is the basis of science and science is the best hope of humanity. So, I rest my case.

For the last few years of Ryan Fitzpatrick's playing career, I kept making the point that he would be a great candidate for a network broadcast job if he wanted one. His 9 city playing career, smarts and personality made him a uniquely qualified candidate to add to an NFL broadcast. But, I was not thinking of a Harvard version of the Terry Bradshaw studio commentator role. I thought he could be a better version of Tony Romo. Smarter, more fun, more league wide connections, more self aware, more energy. I think the only thing Herbstreit brings to the role is that he has many more years of having done it, albeit in his unremarkable, lowkey style.

Expectation - Reality = Disappointment. Bills have been in the mix for the Lombardi for 4 years now. Not much has been expected of the Jags. When a team hangs out in the disappointment zone, fingers are going to be pointed at the QB and head coach.