folz

All we heard from you "realists" all off season was that it was going to be a problem with McD calling the defense and that we were gonna be screwed on defense because we didn't have a middle linebacker, our O-line sucked, Spencer Brown is a problem, Davis sucks, etc., etc. Well, McD almost pitched a shutout against a 2-0 team in their house, Bernard has a monster game, the defense had 9 sacks and 5 turnovers, the offensive line didn't allow a sack against one of the best fronts in the league, Davis scored a touchdown (almost two), we won by 34 points, and for the second week in a row 9 different receivers had receptions, our backs ran for more than 167 yards, and we scored more than 37 points with a very balanced offense. So, what makes you think you are correct about your current, negative assessment? I think we "homers" are much more realistic than you complainers at this point. Plus its week three for goodness sake. We have two new RBs, a new TE, two new offensive linemen, and a few new receivers. This offense is still finding themselves, their identity, the roles that everyone will play, etc. To expect perfection from the offense in week 3 against a good defense is so short-sighted. Are there things they can improve on, of course, but to be calling for Dorsey's head at this point is silly, imo. And to complain about the number of receptions the #2 receiver is getting when Josh is spreading the ball around so well and the team is playing a lot of ball-/clock-control offense in games where we are leading and the defense is dominating, really makes me think you guys are complaining just to complain. The only play I had a problem with was the 4th down...should have just been a QB sneak. But I don't mind that they are trying other things (screens, hand off to Davis, etc.), even if they are unsuccessful because as I said, it is so early in the year that they are still trying to find their 2023 identity. They'll eventually start to home in on what is working and what isn't and adjust accordingly. You guys seem to expect perfection (which no team has)...and I'm also guessing that maybe Miami's 70 points has you scared. Not me. We aren't the Broncos. I feel bad that some of you guys can't enjoy the wins (a blowout no less). Football is supposed to be fun. Go Bills!

C'mon Bills fans...let's wash the taste of the Jets game and the end of last year out of our mouths. It's the HOME OPENER! All positive, winning vibes towards the team! LET'S GO BUFFALO!!!!!!!

LET'S GO BUFFALO!!! Another season, another mountain to climb... Enjoy the journey my friends! And let's kicks some butt tonight!

I always watched Sunday Ticket on my computer/web because I have non-sports fans in the house. And I have to say, Youtube Sunday Ticket on the computer/web stinks. No multi-view, no easy way to toggle between games, no banner listing games/scores/times so you know what is happening in other games (like Direct TV had), etc. Very disappointed in the change so far.

Went over to NFL.com to check in on the KC/DET game, and one of the home page headlines read: "Week 1 Picks: Jets a lock vs. Bills?!" All 5 NFL "experts" on that site picked the Jets to win. "Dan: Perhaps I'm a prisoner of the moment, trusting the Jets hype train to stay on the tracks when in reality I'm asleep at the wheel. But I do know the Bills couldn't score more than 20 points in either of their meetings with the Jets last season. I don't know if New York's defense will be as good as it was last season, but the offense is better -- and I can't say the same thing about Buffalo with nearly as much confidence." I'm not saying the Jets can't win the game, but it is amazing to me how so much of the media has completely written Buffalo off as a declining team. I can understand not being the darling pick to go to the Super Bowl (like last year), but there are many that don't even have us making the playoffs. I mean, I love that the Bills have been able to have an off-the-radar off-season (I think that was really good for them), but how can the media actually think they have fallen so far off the cliff? Can't wait for the lads to prove everyone wrong!

The key is the bolded above in Success' post. This is by far the deepest team that we have had in the McBeane era. Our depth was tested last year and we were lacking. That should not be the case this year. It's been a slow build over 5 years, but we are now a very deep team at almost every spot. And as far as overall talent, who have we really lost over the last 4 years that played any significant role: Beasley, Singletary, John Brown, McKenzie, Feliciano, Star, Levi, a waning Jerry Hughes, Edmunds, Addison, Moss, Daryl Williams, Vernon Butler Out of that group, the only above-average production we got in those 3 years was Beasley in 2020. Some of our additions since the end of 2021: Von Miller, Floyd, Poona, Shaq, Jordan Phillips, DaQuan, Settle, Rapp, Benford, Elam, Harty, Sherfield, Damien Harris, Murray, Cook, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Kincaid, Martin, Bernard, Shakir, Williams Not saying ALL of those guys are studs by any means and many are still a wait and see, but it's pretty obvious that overall it is superior talent in volume and quality to what we have lost. And in comparison to last year, if they just stay healthier and have less distractions, that is a huge plus for this season even before you equate in this year's additions. Heck, just Tre, Hyde, Josh, Gabe, Jordan P, Poyer, and Von being healthier/available is a big difference from last season (provided they can all stay that way, for the most part). And I feel that they addressed the two biggest offensive issues from last season: slot WR and interior O-Line. And the last addition, of course, is experience: players like Knox, Davis, Josh, Brown, Rousseau are all more experienced than they were 2, 3, 4 years ago. And our more recent guys: Benford, Elam, Shakir, Cook all now have at least a year under their belts. imo...this is definitely the best team in both overall talent and top to bottom depth since pre-drought.

I couldn't find anything recent about GM's or team's overall draft success rate/ranking (except one SI article that I couldn't access without a subscription). But in searching, I did find these tidbits (not sure how much they help to answer the original query, but I think they do show that drafting really well is a lot more difficult than most fans think). According to this article, only 30% of draft picks even ever make a final NFL 53-man roster. https://en.as.com/nfl/what-percentage-of-drafted-players-make-an-nfl-roster-n/#:~:text=These young men have won,it onto an NFL roster. Per the article linked below: "...based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks.... 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team. 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had. 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years. 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters. 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years. 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers. So, only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team. That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players." https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high Just food for thought.

In regards to Bernard, I was going to go into a whole thing about the change in defensive philosophy, thinking of our LBs as Left LB and Right LB rather than the traditional OLB/MLB, the need for LBs who aren't a liability in coverage (lateral speed, even if giving up a bit of size) to be able to stop the slants and screens to players like Hill, Waddle, Chase, Higgins, etc., 3 safety personnel groupings, etc., etc., etc. But we are so close to the start of the season now that we can all just wait and see if McD's plan/defensive tweaks work. So, all I will say is, I am very excited to see what our defense looks like this year because I actually think that they are going to be scary good (provided they stay healthy). We'll see. 🤷‍♂️ P.S. I wasn't as worried as some about the MLB position, but the Kirksey signing took away any last doubts I had. And kudos to Benford for winning the CB2 spot.

What demise are you talking about? The Bills went 13-3, with their three losses being by only a combined 8 points. Made the playoffs. Won a playoff game. Then had one bad playoff loss to the Bengals in the divisional round. All of that on top of all of the major injuries and possibly more adversity than any team has ever faced in one season. And don't forget, we had lost in the divisional round the year before (to KC), so the 2022 Bills ended in the same place as the 2021 Bills (despite the difference in how the last game of each season played out). Where is the demise? Demise would indicate some sort of major drop off, collapse, etc. Please explain to us how you predicted something that didn't happen. And if their demise is because they didn't reach the Super Bowl, well, each year I could predict 32 teams not making the Super Bowl, and you know what? I'd have a 93.75% hit rate at the end of the year. As to your predictions this year, I realize that you are just trolling and trying to get a rise out of us (ok, I'll bite), but you could at least try and make it more believable. Do you honestly think the following, honestly? 1. Only 10 teams will finish with a worse record than the Bills? 2. That 18 teams will have a better record than the Bills? 3. The Dolphins will win 15 games? 🤣 Most Bills fans weren't predicting 15 wins for the Bills last year and we were an almost consensus pick to make the Super Bowl. 4. The Pats will be the 2nd best team in the AFC East? 5. That KC would have gone undefeated (if Kelce didn't get hurt and Jones was playing)? I guarantee that you wouldn't put any actual money (in real life) on any of those 5 things happening. Because you'd lose a lot of money. I mean the most reasonable of those predictions is New England finishing second in the division, and even that is a long shot.

I agree that we may not reach the #2 rank again (so much goes into that, strength of opponents, etc.), but I do think we will be a better overall defense than we were last year...provided we stay relatively healthy. I think Tremaine was a better player than some of his detractors give him credit for, but he was by no means a special player. His height made it more difficult for QBs to throw deep middle/seam routes, but otherwise, he did not stand out in any other area (including that MLB type of aggression and attitude---no players feared him). He was not great in the run game or in coverage, and he didn't make many key/important or splash plays. Over his 5 years with the Bills, Tremaine averaged per year: 113 tackles, 1.3 sacks, 1 interception, 0.4 forced fumbles. So, fewer than 1.5 sacks and 1.5 turnovers per season...that's it. The tackle totals don't look bad, I guess, until you realize that 51 players had more tackles than Tremaine last year (of course that includes safeties too, not just LBs). Even if we had to start Dodson all year, I just don't think it is going to be that big of a drop off (compared to what we've gained or got back in other areas). Do you not think Dodson could get 102 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT if he started all year? That's all he'd need to match Tremaine's 2022 stats. But I think the real plan is to have the smaller, faster backers, who are all good in coverage and can all tackle well (Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector) play more (and you can probably include Siran/Rapp 😁 in that equation too) ...and then your Dodsons and Kleins (if he's signed back) are there for more obvious run-heavy teams or game situations. We need to finally be able to stop those quick slants and screens of KC, Miami, Cinci. Height over the middle doesn't help if they can just complete the passes in front of you and you can't corral those guys. I think we need to stop thinking about the position as some traditional middle linebacker spot (we aren't a traditional 4-3 or 3-4 defense). We need to see it more like LB left and LB right. I think they were hoping that Bernard would grab the spot, maybe with Williams to add in more as the season wore on. But Williams is best served behind Milano right now, and Bernard's injury pushed Dodson forward for the time being (obviously Spector wasn't ready for a promotion).

What on Earth makes you think that? Last year, the Bills defense was 1st in yards against, 2nd in points against, and 5th in takeaways, despite all of the injuries. The only loss of any significance this year is Tremaine Edmunds (and now Boogie if you can even count him). Additions: Leonard Flyod, Poona Ford, Dorian Williams, Taylor Rapp. Plus you could include Micah Hyde as an addition from last year (since he only played 2 games last season), Von Miller and Jordan Philips both missed 8 games last year, Tredavious didn't play until weeks 11/12 and still wasn't fully back from his knee injury yet, Poyer was playing through multiple severe injuries all year. And our 3 young corners have another year under their belts now (for 11 games last year we were starting Dane and one of the rookies...now we only need 1 of these three guys to be starting at any time). And McDermott looks to call a more aggressive defense than Frasier did. Do you really think losing Tremaine Edmunds brings us from being a top 2 defense to trash? Especially with everything else mentioned above? I think you'd have a hard time convincing me that we won't actually be a better defense this year than we were last season. Besides, I don't think they wanted a Tremaine replacement anyhow. They are obviously going in a different direction with that position (they didn't just forget it).

You guys are just getting ridiculous now. The Jets had three 1st round picks that year. #4 Overall, #10 Overall, and #26 Overall. The Bills had one first round pick. #23 Overall. A lot easier (better odds) to pick All-Pros when you have more picks (and 2 in the top 10), rather than picking 23rd. Are you seriously trying to intimate that if the roles were reversed, the Jets would have picked a stud/All-Pro at 23 and Beane would have nabbed three busts at 4, 10, and 26? If you guys actually took your "realist" blinders off and looked around the league, you'd see that other teams make mistakes too and that overall Beane has done a great job. We have a very talented team...it isn't just Josh Allen on his own (the new battle cry). I have no problem with people criticizing particular moves or players (like drafting Boogie or whatever), but the exaggeration of the so called "realists" has now placed you guys further into fantasy land than any Bills Homer.

I'm a little late to the party, but I was curious to take a look at this for myself (trying to be as unbiased as a Bills Homer can be). Quaterbacks: They are deeper at QB, but even with that, Josh is still a far superior QB to Tua, even when Tua is healthy and at his best. BIG EDGE BILLS Allen Tua Allen/Bark White/Thompson Running backs: A lot of backs with a lot of carries on both teams. I'm hoping Cook will prove to be the best of all the backs and I think Harris stacks up with any of their guys too. But with an outside eye (not sure how good Cook will be/maybe Achane shows out), I'll give RBs a PUSH for now. Cook Mostert Harris Wilson, Jr. Murray Gaskin Johnson Ahmed Evans Achane Wide Receivers: I think an unbiased view has to give this one to the Dolphins, though I do like our depth better. But, the 1-2 punch of Hill and Waddle does it. DECENT EDGE to the DOLPHINS Diggs Hill Davis Waddle Harty Wilson, Jr. Sherfield Cracraft Shakir Berrios Isabella Chosen Shorter Sanders Tight End: No words needed. MASSIVE EDGE BILLS Knox Smythe Kincaid Kroft Morris Saubert Gilliam (TE/FB) Conner Offensive Line: I am not going to even pretend that I know enough about offensive line play to make a judgement here. But really, the lines are pretty similar, each has a Pro-Bowler at LT, two young day 1/2 draft picks, one young unheralded guy, and veteran centers. I have heard a few times that the Phins line isn't great, whereas ours should at least be solid. But neither line is elite, so for the sake of argument I will give the O-lines a PUSH. Overall Offense: The big edge that the Bills have with QB and TE far outweighs the smaller WR edge the Phins may have. Otherwise, talent-wise, pretty even. I think in good times, when Tua is healthy, their offense can be as potent as ours...but I don't think they can match our consistency of potency (mainly due to QB play). Defense: Tough to quantify on a position by position basis because of the different styles of defense, so I'll break it up into front seven and back four. Both defenses have a lot of elite talent, Phins are stronger up front right now, we're more solid on the backend (as of now). Front Seven (kind of in order of talent level): I do think our front seven could be as game-changing as theirs if we stay healthy and some players progress, but they have to prove it first...and we need to see if McD's defense and his use of LBs, etc. works. SOLID EDGE to the PHINS for now. Bills: Miller, Milano, Rosseau, Floyd, Oliver, Jones, Phillips, Basham, Epenesa, Lawson, Bernard, Williams, Settle Phins: Wilkins, Chubb, Ogbah, Phillips, Sieler, Baker, Reed, Van Ginkle, Davis, Riley, Tindall Back Four: Our first 4 guys are studs, with Ramsey out, Howard is their only stud...and our depth is waaaay more solid. SOLID EDGE to the BILLS. Bills: Poyer, Hyde, Tre, Johnson, Dane, Benford, Elam, Rapp, Hamlin, Neal Phins: Ramsey (out til Dec), Howard, Holland, Jones, Kohou, Needham, Smith, Elliot Special Teams: Bass > Sanders; Martin = Bailey; in 2022 Bills ST ranked 5th, Miami 27th. Return-wise, is Braxton Berrios better than Harty or Isabella? No, about the same. EDGE BILLS. Let's face it, if you take QB out of the discussion, talent-wise, these teams seem to be about as even as you can get, just with the talent maybe sprinkled in a few different areas from each other. I'd say each team has about 8-9 elite-level players (so, that is about even too). So, I have no issue with someone arguing that the Dolphins may be more talented on paper (sans QB)...but to say overall or "in a landslide" or by a large amount definitely seems like either hyperbole or wishful thinking. I still give the overall team talent edge slightly to the Bills (before weighing in QB), and then obviously, Josh tips the scales significantly. But all this means is that this season is going to be a lot of fun, and one hell of a ride. We aren't going to win 'em all on a march to the Super Bowl...it's going to be a dog fight all the way...and I love it. That's how football is supposed to be...tough divisional battles preparing you for hard-nosed playoff games.

You could kind of put lists together like this for every team (save maybe the Super Bowl winners, since they can always answer that list with a Lombardi): For example, in relation to the bolded statement above: Isn't Shanahan a supposed offensive expert? In 5 of his last 6 playoff games they have averaged 15.8 points per game. The only time SF scored more than 23 points in their last 6 playoff games, it was against a Geno Smith-led Seattle team that was thought to be tanking at the start of the season. Or, SF blew a 10-point lead with 6 minutes to go in the Super Bowl...this great SF defense allowed the Chiefs to score 21 points in the last six minutes of the game. [Shanahan walked the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game] ETC. I think we all have a bit of Bills myopia, whether one is considered a "Homer" or a "Realist". We are so hyper-focused on our team that we don't often have a similar perspective on other teams. It is almost like "Realists" tend to see our flaws as worse than similar flaws on other teams, and "Homers" tend to see our strengths as better than similar strengths on other teams. Or in reverse, "Realists" see our strengths as lower than others, while "Homers" see others flaws as worse than ours. But as the OP showed (at least in regards to the drafting of SF and Buf) the truth is usually somewhere in the middle...or more even than (not as extreme as) we may think it is.

A few thoughts on MLB: 1. At this point, I think they would like Dorian to man that position, but it is a lot for a rookie from a small school to learn the defense well enough to call it right away. And if they had come out and said he's going to be the MLB and then he struggled early, it would be a much harder road (fans down on him, maybe he loses confidence in himself, etc.). Hopefully as the season goes on he gets plugged in more and eventually takes over. He's smallish, but he's a tackling machine...and fast enough to cover. 2. Obviously McD had a plan to change the defense up a bit (faster, cover LBs; putting three safeties on the field, etc.). I don't think they purposefully ignored the position, instead they wanted to change direction with the position/defense. They didn't want an Edmunds-type replacement. We'll have to wait until the season begins to see how McD is calling the defense and what the personnel groupings really are, but I'm sure he doesn't want to tip his hand too much before then. Will the change work...we just have to wait and see at this point. But it is silly to believe that they just forgot to get a MLB. I mean, with teams like KC, Cinn, and Miami, etc. speed is more important than bulk at LB. How many times have we been killed by quick hitting slants over the middle. A guy like Tremaine Edmunds (and probably even Dodson) don't have much of a chance covering or tackling slants by Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jamaar Chase, Tee Higgins, or fast and athletic TEs and slot guys. I don't think they wanted a Bobby Wagner or similar type of LB...they want faster LBs who are sure tacklers, so they can cover the speedy receivers we have to face without being a liability in the run game. I think it is a change in philosophy, not an ignoring of the position. 3. The Bernard injury hurts. I have a feeling he was the preferred option (with how they want to run things) until Dorian got good enough to take over. The idea also may have been to platoon the position for a while, much like they did with CB2 last year (though it's a much tougher position to do so with since they call the plays). But if we are playing a heavier run team, we'd see more Dodson and Klein; a better passing team, we'd see more Bernard/Rapp/Spector/Williams. And I don't think we even really have a traditional Will and Mike anyways. The LBs will be more interchangeable. With only two backers on the field, you don't really have inside and outside LBs, it is more your side and my side. 4. Beane is the type of GM who looks under every rock (see the kid they brought in from the USFL---not that his signing prevents them from bringing in someone better, say after team cuts or whatever). To think he is ignoring the position is silly. And yes, last year there was a problem with depth across the team because we had so many injuries. But to the guy complaining about the WRs last year, I think you may have forgotten that Crowder went down in what game four. Had he stayed healthy, I don't think the WR position would have been as rough as it was last year. Lack of production from the slot and interior offensive line were the issues with the offense last year and they tried very hard to address that this off-season. Again, we have to wait and see how it all plays out...maybe the posters who are very concerned about the position will turn out to be right, or maybe we just don't really know what their actual defensive plan is yet, and we are thinking too much about how we were previously rather than the new direction they want to go to combat the types of offenses that exist now, so everything will be fine. Not too much longer until we find out. 🤞