folz

First off, I loved Mack too, he was a big part of last season, and I also wish he were still on the team. But, I think we will all miss Hollins' personality and on-field attitude more than his production. And it's tough to quantify how important a guy is in the locker room, as a teammate, etc. And I'm not discounting his blocking or special teams play either. But, I don't think he would be leading in snaps again this year. As BillsFanForever pointed out, I don't think that was the plan for Mack last year even. But with the injuries (to Samuel, Coleman, and Cooper), he was pressed into heavier service. And now with the additions of Palmer and Moore, Keon going into year two (he'll get more playing time than last year), and Samuel (hopefully healthy)---plus the amount that we throw to our RBs and TEs, there just wouldn't be much playing time or balls for Mack this upcoming season---at least on offense (42% of our passing plays last year went to RBs and TEs, not to mention that our run/pass split is already 49 run/51 pass). So, we are already a team that doesn't use their WRs as much as other teams. And you figure we'll mostly be starting Palmer, Coleman, and Shakir. Plus, we run a lot of two TEs and Jumbo packages. Then Samuel would come in as #4. So, Mack would be fighting with Moore, Shenault, Shavers, Prather, Virgil, and Hamler for WR5 snaps. How much do you want to pay for that role (even if special teams is included). Better to go with younger and cheaper. We are paying $2.5 million for Moore (we paid $2.6 million for Mack last year), and Moore brings something Mack doesn't in that role (whatever you think of his overall play). Mack got $8.4 million from NE ($3.5 million of which is guaranteed). So, even if he doesn't hit any incentives, he's still $1 million more than Moore. If he does hit incentives, he could cost 4 times as much as Moore. I won't compare him to Palmer, because Palmer is obviously the more athletically gifted...definitely an upgrade from Mack, imo. Palmer 2,287 yards and 11 TDs in 4 years; Mack 2,069 yards and 15 TDs in 8 years. And as far as Moore: 2,162 yards and 10 TDs in 4 years. Last year, fyi: Hollins had 378 yards and 5 TDs; Palmer had 584 yards and 1 TD; Moore had 538 yards and 1 TD. At his age, this could be Mack's last contract. Yes, winning a Super Bowl would be nice for any player. But, I think many older players (who haven't had huge contracts in their careers) would trade standing on the sidelines for a Super Bowl for a bigger contract that will bring his family financial security after retirement. I've seen $8.4 million everywhere, but the D&C (not sure if they are correct) said it could go up to $10.4 million max, if he hits all incentives. Mack's career earnings are $11.7 million in 8 years. He could almost double his career earnings if he plays well. Hard to turn that down, especially if the Bills were looking at WR5 money (maybe just giving him a slight boost). I mean the Bills might have been willing to go to $3.5 million for Mack, but they probably wouldn't have given him as many incentives as New England and/or he wouldn't have had as much opportunity in Buffalo to reach those incentives. So, imo, it made sense for both the player and the team to move on. But, no doubt we will all miss Mack and it's going to suck seeing him on the other side in the Pats games.

Ah yes, thanks for the correction.

Yeah, I was at that Dallas game too. The win was euphoric after what we had been through. I was sitting in the upper deck with a buddy and his dad. We had almost the entire section to ourselves. There were maybe two other guys down 7-8 rows and over 20 seats, and a couple more people maybe like 20 rows in front of us. I mean the upper deck was sparse of people. And more than a few fans at the game wore brown bags over their heads (in embarrassment of the team). No question the 17-year drought was tough and obviously longer. But, I don't think you guys appreciate how truly bad those earlier years were. 1976: We go 2-12 and coach Saban is replaced by Jim Ringo 1977: We go 3-11, and O.J. gets traded away to San Francisco 1978: We go 5-11...but there is some hope with new coach Chuck Knox. 1979: We improve to 7-9. 1980: We finally have a team, under Knox's direction, and go 11-5, making the playoffs (but losing our first playoff game in the divisional round). 1981: Success under Knox continues with a 10-6 season, a playoff berth, and our first playoff win since 1966 in the Wild Card game (lost in div round). 1982: Strike shortened year. We go 4-5. And Chuck Knox leaves Buffalo. If you youngins never lived through a strike year, let me tell you. it's not fun. Lost games, scab players, etc. A strike year alone feels like 2-3 years of the drought at least. 1983: Welcome aboard coach Kay Stevenson 🤦‍♂️. We draft Jim Kelly #14 overall and he refuses to play in Buffalo (because we're so bad). He leaves for the USFL and the Bills go 8-8. 1984: 2-14 1985: 2-14 Stevenson is dumped and we bring on coach Hank Bullough 🤦‍♂️. 1986: There is hope with the return of Jim Kelly, but we go 4-12 and change coaches mid-season, hiring some unknown coach who was a special teams coordinator for the Chiefs (Marv Levy). 1987: Marv's first (almost) full year we go 7-8, in another strike shortened year. Yes, two strikes, two shortened seasons in 6 years. [1988 would be the start of the 90s Bills team as we knew it.] So, it wasn't a playoff drought (thanks to Chuck Knox in 1980 and 1981), but it was 12 pretty rough years overall (not just two bad years). I grew up in Rochester, the stadium never sold out, so there was a TV blackout for most of the games. Which meant if you didn't go to the game, you had to listen to it on the radio. I probably heard more games than I saw during some of those years. Our winning percentage during the drought was .412%. Our winning percentage during these 12 years was .361% (despite making the playoffs 2 years). It was bad times. Six seasons with 4 or fewer wins. Seven seasons with 5 or fewer wins. Two strikes. Six different coaches in 12 years. During the drought, we only had two seasons with 4 or fewer wins. Three seasons with 5 or fewer wins (in 17 years rather than 12). Six coaches in 17 years. Both periods were rough (as was '67-'72, as OldMan pointed out, though I was not around/too young to remember those years).

Yeah, it would be too difficult to figure out the number and importance of injuries for all teams across the board and compare. So I get saying every team gets injured and should have depth anyhow, so I'm not going to weigh injuries in too much in assessing the playoff losses (or use it as an excuse for years where the injuries weren't that many or significant). But, I would say 7/8 starters out or playing through a significant injury is probably above normal for winning playoff teams (but maybe I'm wrong)---unless the other team is as beat up as you are. And I might put a fake bet down, but I would shorten the time frame to 2021-2023. I think those three seasons we might have been above the norm in significant injuries. But, as you said, ultimately who knows. (and I don't think you're being a jerk 👍.)

Injuries are not the reason we lost all of our playoff games, but no doubt they were an important factor in certain years (a couple of the losses). It shouldn't preclude us from looking at other reasons or factors in our playoff losses though (for instance, 2021/2022: coaching/talent/defense; 2024/2025: refs, etc.). Going back to Detroit last year, they had a lot of injuries...but for some reason, even the backup players got listed in articles and posts about their injuries/losses last year. That usually doesn't happen. But, as far as their playoff game, they were missing 4 players (Hutchinson, Peko, Barnes, and McNeil) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Anzalone was recently back from injury (so probably not at his peak). But, for instance, in '23/'24 vs. Chiefs in the playoffs, the Bills were missing 5 players (Tre White, Milano, Bernard, Benford, Gabe Davis) who were starters at the beginning of the year. And Rasul Douglas was playing with a knee injury and Taron Johnson was playing through a concussion he sustained the week before. And then if you want to talk volume (in comparison to Detroit's backup players missing, etc.), the Bills were also missing both backup safeties (Rapp and Hamlin), Jordan Phillips, Baylon Spector (normally not a big deal, but with both starting LBs out...), Damien Harris, and our punter Martin was playing injured (groin if I remember correctly). And we only lost by 3 points. Not sure how some posters still don't think injuries were not a factor that year. And, again, why does Detroit get a pass for last year, but the Bills don't get a pass for '23/'24?

The first bolded statement is a decent point. We have tended to go small on defense at certain positions (LB/Secondary) and that could be a factor in those players getting injured. And yes, we have had some injury-prone players (particularly Milano). So, no I wouldn't be surprised to see Milano or a couple of other guys injured. I do hope this is something the Bills brass has at least looked into, from all angles. But, I do think we are a much deeper team now (at most spots) that can withstand injuries a bit better than the teams from say 2020-2023. The weird thing is that the first 3-4 years of the McBeane era, we were one of the least injured teams. Then from the end of 2020 to 2023 it felt like we were one of the more heavily injured teams. Was it a change in training/conditioning staff/methods, was it the type of players we were bringing in, was it just bad luck? And of course, other teams have injuries too. But, there were particular games, Bills/Chiefs 2022 for instance, where we were missing a number of key players on defense (like 5 or 6 guys) and they were only missing like one starter or whatever. It does have an affect on the game. But yes, say in the Cincy game, they were banged up too. I guess we'd have to look back at each game to see how significant the difference was on the injury report, etc. and then how much we think those losses affected the outcomes. So, I get not wanting to lay too much of the blame on injuries, but no doubt they were a factor in at least some of the playoff games. To the second bolded statement. Yes, no question the Lions were depleted by injuries last year and it played a big role in the end of their playoff run. But that's the thing, the national media talked over and over about Detroit's injuries, and posters here too have brought it up a lot. But then when some of us say, well injuries played an issue for the Bills in some years, people say, aw you're just making excuses. Why do injuries factor in for Detroit, but not for Buffalo?

Fair points. There is that possibility too.

That will depend on if there are legitimate excuses or not. You call them excuses, I call them factors and circumstances. I mean, yeah, if we get to the playoffs and are missing 5 defensive starters, while the other team is healthy or say only missing one guy. Yeah, that is a factor. If Josh were to miss a playoff game and we lose, yeah, that is a factor. If the referees make a horrible call on a game changing play, or multiple bad calls that all go against Buffalo, yeah, that is a factor. Rookies are not excuses (outside of at QB). This team brings them along slowly and won't have them out there if they aren't performing well. But, yeah, I really hope there is nothing to point at this year in that vein too.

Yes, since 2020, I think we can honestly say that the Bills have probably been the best overall NFL team in the regular season. Beyond the EPAs you noted above, the Bills have also scored the most points (#1), while surrendering the fewest points (#1). We are #3 in offensive yards (just 27 yards behind #2 SF and 305 yards behind #1 KC, over 5 years). We are #2 in yards allowed by defense (only 9 yards behind #1 SF, over 5 years). We are #1 in defensive turnovers (by a good margin) and #2 in turnover differential (only 4 behind #1 Pittsburgh). Of course, we are #2 in wins. We have played 1 less game than K.C. and they have 5 more wins than us over those 5 years (but, at least as far as the regular season is concerned, we have the head-to-head with K.C. at 4-1---which makes the playoff losses seem even stranger). Bills are #2 in win percentage at .735 (KC is #1 at .786; the next closest team is Green Bay at #3 with .634, a significant drop). What does that all mean? Well, I think all Bills fans should be in agreement that the playoffs is obviously where the problem is. But what that problem is we can't seem to agree on. I agree with Gunner to an extent about elite players. If we had even one or two more game changers that could make a play in crunch time, that would go a long way. So do we blame drafting/free agent acquisitions for that? A lot of people will put it on coaching (bad decisions, getting outcoached, bad defensive schemes). Some will put it on overall talent, or lack of talent at certain positions (WR, for example). Many agree it is the defense that has let us down, but is that talent, coaching, scheme? I know some don't, but I personally give the team a mulligan for the 2022 playoffs. Not sure how some people act like the whole Damar situation didn't or shouldn't have affected that team. So, that is the Miami game you mentioned and the Cincy game. And beyond having KC in front of us and the Damar incident in 2022, there is also the injury issue. The Bills have not been their healthiest (at their best), particularly on defense, for at least 3-4 of those 5 seasons. 2020: Beasley playing on a broken ankle, Diggs playing through a pretty bad knee injury. 2022/2023 our defenses were decimated with injuries. Again, some will say those are excuses, but that is also a factor in the under-performance by the defense in the playoffs, defenses will tend to underperform when they are missing a number of starters. I guess you could knock Beane for depth, but how many teams are going to be as good with a certain number of back-ups in. That's why they are back-ups. And then there is the Chiefs again. One of the best offenses in the last 20 years (for most of their run)---we have faced them 4 times in the playoffs. I would venture to guess if other playoff teams had to face the Chiefs in 4 of their playoff games, their defensive stats would look a lot worse than playing say some 9-8 team in the Wild Card round (i.e., a significant drop from their regular season stats). And lastly, you can't totally discount luck and the NFL/referees either (whether it be injuries, bad bounces of the ball, bad calls, etc.). So, as you and others have noted, it is so many things plied into one that it is hard to put our fingers on just one or two things. But I agree whole-heartedly with your statement that I highlighted in purple. I mean, we are all just fans trying to figure out and fix the problem (from our armchair GM positions). Of course there will be people on the extremes of any discussion. But, where I think the ultimate disconnection is is between those who think since we haven't gotten it done in the playoffs, this regime never will and we should start looking for a change; while others look at the regular season success, and the good playoff games, and the circumstances of each season, and the fact that we've been soooo close in the games with the Chiefs, so they want to stay the course with McBeane. Hopefully, with the defensive additions, and the fact that we are moving into our new stadium next year and Josh just won the MVP, we won't need to have this conversation again next offseason. 🤞 Go Bills! [Randon Note: We are 7-5 in the playoffs since 2020. Interesting to note, playoff points for = 337; playoff points against = 267. So, we have outscored our opponents by 70 points or 6 points per game on average, despite losing 5 of those games.]

I know Einstein's Dog already replied to this, and you responded to him, but I couldn't help myself. First off, Elway was never going to pick Josh. That's why he says now it was a mistake. If he didn't take Chubb, he was going to trade us the pick for us to get Allen (they actually had a deal in place). Obviously we couldn't control Cleveland (being the number 1 pick). It all depended on them and they obviously were not giving up that pick no matter how much Beane offered (same goes for the NYG and the Jets). And everyone knew pre-draft that the Jets were all in on Darnold and Cleveland was either picking Josh or Baker. It was a very poorly kept secret. So, it looked like it was Josh or Baker for the Bills depending on Cleveland. Josh was absolutely the top of the Bills board. Everything that has come out since that draft points to the fact that the Bills were all in on Allen and were totally out on Rosen. No idea how they felt about Baker and Jackson. But I think they had Baker #2 or #3 (with Darnold) and I agree that Jackson may not have been what they were looking for in a QB. You can say it took 3 teams to make a mistake, but then didn't 9 teams make a mistake not picking Mahomes? Does that make the Mahomes pick by KC not really count or something? It's a silly argument. I mean K.C. gets credit for trading up to 10 to get Mahomes, but the Bills don't get credit for trading up to 7 (because someone still could have picked in front of them)? Can't you say the same thing about every QB who didn't go #1 overall? So, do GMs only get credited for a QB if they picked them #1? And do you really think that if McBeane didn't get Josh, they would have just thrown their hands up in the air and said, well I guess were just going to roll with Nathan Peterman for the next five years? Let's say Cleveland took Josh #1 overall. Do the Bills move up then for Baker? Or maybe Baker falls to them at 12 and we keep some of our assets (two second rounders) and pick a couple of excellent players in the second round to go with Baker. Might Baker have done better in Buffalo than he did in Cleveland in a better organization that is very good at player development? Life would have been much different, not better, but I don't think it would have been a death knell for McBeane. Now let's say Cleveland takes Josh, the Jets take Darnold, and then Denver takes Baker. Again, I don't think the Bills wanted Rosen at all. In that scenario, we would still have all of our picks. In 2018, prior to the draft day trades, the Bills had six picks in the first three rounds: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, and 96. At that point, we could have traded back (for even more picks) and still got Lamar. Or picked another player at 12 and still been able to get Lamar at 22, then still have 4 more picks in rounds 2 and 3. Picking Josh and Tremaine, we ended up with only 3 picks in the first 3 rounds (7, 16, and 96). In this other scenario, we could have had Lamar and 5 other picks in the top 3 rounds (12, 53, 56, 65, and 96). Don't think that scenario would have got McBeane fired either. Worst case scenario, we do not come away with a QB in the 2018 draft (Josh, Baker, and Darnold gone---Bills don't want Rosen or Jackson). So, Beane keeps piling picks to draft one in future drafts. With two first rounders, basically three second rounders, and two third rounders in 2018, Beane could have moved back a number of times, still got a lot of good players to fill the roster, and increased his draft capital significantly in future drafts. Now in 2019, there wasn't much in the way of QB help in the draft. Kyler Murray went #1 overall to ARZ. But, no one else. So, we may have had to wait for 2020. But think of the draft capital that Beane could have built up by then to make a run for Burrow, Herbert, or Hurts (Tua and Love also went in this draft) that year. We may have been a year or two behind where we are (or were at the time), but I don't think it would have cost them their jobs. We still wouldn't have Josh (the unicorn MVP that makes everything better)---but we probably wouldn't suck either with say Burrow, Herbert, or Hurts. Of course, it means (outside of a trade) that we would have had to run with guys like Case Keenum, Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, or Teddy Bridgewater in 2018 and 2019 (or stick with Tyrod), which really wouldn't have affected 2018 much (6-10 record---other than not getting to see Josh develop and leap over Anthony Barr), but obviously 2019 wouldn't have been as exciting a season as it was (we would have still been in QB limbo). Not to say that a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, or Nick Foles couldn't have got us to the playoffs (first round loss that year w/Josh). It probably just wouldn't have been as much fun. And, we obviously would have lost a year or two of QB development. I mean, you can suppose anything. And yes, the NFL would look much different if the Bills didn't draft Josh. But I think McBenae would have a very good chance of still being around in any of the above scenarios. All of the above scenarios, we wouldn't have Josh. But, the talent of the team around the QB we did have (Baker, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts) would have been higher (with using our picks and accumulating more). The overall success probably wouldn't be as high without Josh, but we would not be a bad team. And you could say the same of any GM/Head Coach---if they never got a good QB, they'd probably eventually be fired. Uh, yeah. That's why they all try so hard to get one and why Beane wouldn't have given up trying to get one even if we missed on Josh. And finally, not sure what you think is "revisionist history." I personally think Beane is a pretty straight shooter.

Good post Mikie. And I know it sounds like an excuse to some, but the one caveat I would add is Kansas City. Let's just say that over the last 6 years we swapped K.C. and San Fran. Put San Francisco in the AFC and move Kansas City to the NFC. Do you think that maybe Buffalo's and Philly's number of Super Bowl appearances and/or SB wins might be different than it is? I mean, how many more SB appearances or rings would Peyton Manning have if not for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I would have gone back only to 2018 (not 2017) and just said "Beane's drafting..." But I was responding to another poster who asked to go back to 2017 (to show the entire tenure of the current regime). Since McDermott was in control of the 2017 draft (with Whaley's scouting), I made the title McBeane (to note that I was aware that Beane was not involved in the 2017 draft). Otherwise the first handful of posts probably would have been people reminding me that Beane wasn't part of the 2017 draft. 🙂

Favorable schedule. I like that we have a couple fewer prime time games than the last couple of years. Toughest games at home and spread out across the schedule. No more than two games away at a time. Second fewest travel miles of all teams. Outside of opening day in primetime vs. Baltimore (wow, should be a great---loud---game), our early schedule seems pretty soft which should allow our defense time to gel and to get off on the right side record-wise. They kind of gave us a break with Philly too. Looked to be one of our tougher games, but 2nd last game of the year, both teams could be resting players at that point or at least their playoff berths should be set (may still be fighting for seeding). Don't love the early BYE, but then, we have gotten younger and it will give them a chance to assess and retool the defense if needed. No Miami in the heat. Last year in Rich/Ralph Wilson/The Ralph/New Era/Highmark Stadium, with a favorable schedule...would be nice to open our new stadium as champs next year. 🤞👍

This is actually an extension of a conversation from the "Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen" topic. But, I thought that I would start a new thread, so more people would weigh in (and because this will be a long post). So, in the other topic, I mentioned that some posters will point out that Philly has drafted more impact players than the Bills. And I pointed out that that isn't surprising, considering most of those impact players came in the last four years when Philly picked significantly higher than the Bills in the draft. For reference again, here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles and the Bills have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years. They had 4 picks higher than our best pick, so not surprising that Roseman has picked more impact players over that span, imo. Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53 Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63 I then linked an old post where I compared Beane's last 4-5 drafts with K.C.'s and Tampa Bay's drafts. Why K.C. and Tampa? Because those are the only two other teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons (along with Buffalo). So, K.C. and Tampa are the only teams who have picked relatively close to where the Bills have picked over that same span (to have a fair comparison for Beane's drafts). Roscoe responded as follows: Well, I went through all of the drafts going back to 2017 (posted below). I can answer the average draft position question, but I'd love for people to weigh in on Roscoe's second question. Have all three teams found more impact players than the Bills in that span (and by how much)? Sometimes I think we as fans look at the Bills in a vaacum. We'll point out all of Beane's bad picks and knock him for it, but not actually compare it to the full body of work of other GMs. We just point out other GMs good picks and put them on a pedestal. We don't seem to knock other GMs (as much) for their bad picks or bad draft years. But, I'll leave it up to you guys. As Roscoe asked, here are the last 8 drafts for four of the more successful teams in the league over that span (the draft pick/number is in parentheses---and forgive me for any misspellings of player's names): San Francisco: 2017: (3) Solomon Thomas DE, (31) Reuben Foster LB, (66) Ahkello Witherspoon CB, (104) C.J. Beathard DB, (121) Joe Williams RB, (146) George Kittle TE, (177) Trent Taylor WR, (198) D.J. Jones DT, (202) Pita Taumoepuna CB, (229) Adrien Culbert DB. 2018: (9) Mike McGlinchey T, (44) Dante Pettis WR, (70) Fred Warner LB, (95) Tarvarius Moore S, (128) Kentavius Street DT, (142) D.J. Reed CB, (184) Marcell Harris S, (240), Richie James WR, (223) Julian Taylor DT. 2019: (2) Nick Bosa DE, (36) Deebo Samuel WR, (67) Jalen Hurd WR, (110) Mitch Wishnowsky P, (148 Dre Greenlaw LB, (176) Kaden Smith TE, (183) Justin Skule T, (198) Tim Harris CB. 2020: (14) Javon Kinlaw DT, (25) Brandon Aiyuk WR, (153) Colton McKivitz T, (190) Charlie Woerner TE, (217) Juan Jennings WR. 2021: (3) Trey Lance QB, (48) Aaron Banks OL, (88) Trey Sermon RB, (102) Ambry Thomas DB, (155) Jaylon Moore T, (172) Deommodore Lenoir CB, (180) Talanoa Hufanga S, (194) Elijah Mitchell RB. 2022: (61) Drake Jackson LB, (93) Tyrion Davis-Prince RB, (105) Danny Gray WR, (134) Spencer Burford OL, (172) Samuel Womack CB, (189) Nick Zaken OL, (220) Kalia Davis DT, (221) Tariq Castro-Fields CB, (262) Brock Purdy QB. 2023: (87) Ji'Ayir Brown S, (99) Jake Moody K, (101) Cameron Latu TE, (155) Darrell Luter CB, Robert Beal LB, Dee Winters LB, (247) Brayden Willis TE, (253) Ronnie Bell WR, (255) Jalen Graham S. 2024: (31) Ricky Pearsall WR, (64) Renardo Green DB, (86) Dominick Puni OL, (124) Malik Mustapha DB, (129) Isaac Guerendo RB, (135) Jacob Cowing WR, (215) Jarrett Kingston OL, (251) Tatum Bethune LB. Philadelphia: 2017: (14) Derek Barnett DE, (43) Sydney Jones CB, (99) Rasul Douglas CB, (118) Mack Hollins WR, (132) Donnel Pumphrey RB, (166) Shelton Gibson WR, (184) Nathan Gerry S, (214) Elijah Quails DT. 2018: (49) Dallas Goedert TE, (125) Avonte Maddox CB, (130) Josh Sweat DE, (206) Matt Pryor T, (233) Jordan Mailata T. 2019: (22) Andre Dillard T, (53) Miles Sanders RB, (57) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR, (138) Shareef Miller DE, (167) Clayton Thorson QB. 2020: (21) Jalen Reagor WR, (53) Jalen Hurts QB, (103) Davion Taylor LB, (127) K'Von Wallace S, (145) Jack Driscoll G, (168) John Hightower WR, (196) Shaun Bradley LB, (200) Quez Watkins WR, (210) Prince Tega Wanojho T, (233) Casey Tolhill DE. 2021: (10) Devonta Smith WR, (37) Landon Dickerson OL, (73) Milton Williams DL, (123) Zech McPherson DB, (150) Kenneth Gainwell RB, (187) Marlon Tuipulota DL, (191) Tarron Jackson DE, (224) Jacoby Stevens S, (234) Patrick Johnson DE. 2022: (13) Jordan Davis DT, (51) Cam Jurgens OL, (83) Nakobe Dean LB, (181) Kyron Johnson DE, (198) Grant Calcaterra TE. 2023: (9) Jalen Carter, (30) Nolan Smith LB, (65) Tyler Steen OL, Sydney Brown DB, (105) Kelee Ringo DB, (168) Tanner McKee QB, (249) Moro Ojomo DE. 2024: (22) Quinyon Mitchell CB, (40) Cooper Dejean DB, (94) Jalyx Hunt DE, (127) Will Shipley RB, (152) Ainias Smith WR, (155) Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. CB, (185) Johnny Wilson WR, (190) Dylan McMahon OL. Kansas City: 2017: (10) Patrick Mahomes QB, (59) Tanoh Kpassagnon DE, (86) Kareem Hunt RB, (139) Jehu Clesson WR, (183) Ukeme Eligwe LB, (218) Leon McQuay RB. 2018: (46)Breeland Speaks DE, (75) Derrick Nnadi DT, (100) Dorian O'Daniel LB, (124) Armani Watts S, (196) Tremon Smith WR, (198) Khailil McKenzie DT. 2019: (56) Mecole Hardman, (63) Juan Thornhill S, (84) Halen Saunders DT, (201) Rashad Fenton CB, (214) Darwin Thompson RB, (216) Nick Allegretti OL. 2020: (32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, (63) Willie Gay, Jr. LB, (96) Lucas Niang T, (138) L'Jarius Snead S, (177) Michael Danna DE, (237) Thakarius Keyes CB. 2021: (58) Nick Bolton LB, (6) Creed Humphrey OL, (144) Joshua Keindoh DE, (102) Noah Gray TE, (181) Cornell Powell WR, (226) Trey Smith OL. 2022: (21) Trent McDuffie CB, (30) George Karlaftis III DE, (54) Skyy Moore WR, (62) Bryan Cook S, (103) Leo Chenal LB, (135) Joshua Williams CB, (145) Darian Kinnard T, (243) Jaylen Watson DB, (251) Isiah Pacheco RB, (259) Nazah Johnson S. 2023: (31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE, (55) Rashee Rice WR, (92) Wanya Morris OL, (119) Chamarri Conner DB, (166) BJ Thompson DE, (194) Keondre Coburn DT, (250) Nic Jones CB. 2024: (28) Xavier Worthy WR, (63) Kingsley Suamataia OL, (131) Jared Wiley TE, (133) Jaden Hicks DB, (211) Kamal Hadden DB, (248) C.J. Hanson OL. Buffalo: 2017: (27) Tre White CB, (37) Zay Jones WR, (63) Dion Dawkins OL, (163) Matt Milano LB, (171) Nathan Peterman QB, (195) Tanner Vallejo LB. 2018: (7) Josh Allen QB, (16) Tremaine Edmunds LB, (96) Harrison Phillips DT, (121) Taron Johnson CB, (154) Siran Neal DB, (166) Wyatt Teller OL, (187) Ray Ray McCloud WR, (258) Austin Proehl WR. 2019: (9) Ed Oliver DT, (38) Cody Ford OL, (74) Devin Singletary RB, (96) Dwson Knox TE, (147) Vosean Joseph LB, (181) Jaquan Johnson CB, (225) Darryl Johnson DE, (228) Tommy Sweeney TE. 2020: (54) A.J. Epenesa DE, (86) Zack Moss RB, (128) Gabe Davis WR, (167) Jake Fromm QB, (188) Tyler Bass K, (207) Isaiah Hodgins WR, (239) Dane Jackson CB. 2021: (30) Greg Rousseau, (61) Boogie Basham DE, (93) Spencer Brown OL, (161) Tommy Doyle OL, (203) Marquez-Stevenson WR, (212) Damar Hamlin S, (213) Rachad Wildgoose CB, (236) Jack Anderson OL. 2022: (23) Kaiir Elam CB, (63) James Cook RB, (89) Terrell Bernard LB, (48) Khalil Shakir WR, (180) Matt Araiza P, (185) Christian Benford CB, (209) Luke Tenuta OL, (231) Baylon Spector LB. 2023: (25) Dalton Kincaid, (59) O'Cyrus Torrence OL, (91) Dorian Williams LB, (150) Justin Shorter WR, (230) Nick Broeker OL, (252) Alex Austin DB. 2024: (33) Keon Coleman WR, (60) Cole Bishop S, (95) DeWayne Carter DT, (128) Ray Davis RB, (141) Sedrick Van Pran-Granger OL, (160) Edefuan Ulofoshio LB, (168) Javon Solomon De, (204) Tylan Grable OL, (219) DaeQuan Hardy CB, (221) Travis Clayton OL. 2016-2024 Team Record Number of Picks Avg. Draft Number Playoff Appearances Conf Champ Appearances SB Appearances SB Wins San Francisco 72-76 66 133.6 4 4 2 0 Philadelphia 90-57 57 121.9 7 3 3 2 Kansas City 112-36 54 126.9 8 7 5 3 Buffalo* 93-54 61 134.3 7 2 0 0 *Obviously McBeane were not here in 2016, when the Bills went 7-9, which is included in the overall record above. But I kept that in because it affected our 2017 draft position. So, over McBeane's tenure, Philly (and KC) have still picked higher than both Buffalo and San Fran on average (obviously, some of that were trades, etc. as Philly had a similar overall record to the Bills and KC had a better record). But, the biggest thing that jumps out to me from that table is Kansas City's record---112 wins, 7 Conference Championship games. People like to knock the Bills for not making the Super Bowl yet, and praise Philadelphia. But, hasn't the Eagles (and Niners) path to the Super Bowl from the NFC been quite a bit easier than Buffalo's, without Kansas City being in their way? I mean Roscoe named San Fran as the other biggest NFC contender over that span and despite two Super Bowl appearances, they don't even have an above .500 record over that stretch. But, let me know what you guys think in regards to drafting impact players, or comparing Beane's drafts overall to the other three teams (if you actually took the time to read this very long post. 😬🙂). Obviously, each GM has their misses (even in the first two rounds). Interesting to note, all four teams got a franchise QB over that stretch. And I honestly think (may be my Bills bias), you could argue that Buffalo was either first or second in at least three of those eight drafts (despite a couple of clunker years from Beane---but the other GMs had some clunkers too). Go Bills!

I agree that Ed has never quite reached his draft status. At pick 9, yes, you're hoping for an Aaron Donald or the like---which Ed is not. But, he is still an excellent player in my opinion. Not elite, but very good. And I have a feeling he may have a big year, with a better line around him. But yes, you can knock the pick a bit because we could have traded back and still had Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, or Jeffrey Simmons. So, it could have been a better pick, but it was by no means a bad pick. And a challenge, huh? I already did K.C. (for 2021-2024) in the post I linked. But adding the Eagles and SF and going back to 2018 or 2017 (probably 2018 is the better choice, as 2017 wasn't a Beane draft), might take some time. The reason I included Tampa is because Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa are the only three teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 years, so they have relatively been drafting in the same range over that time. So, my purpose was to compare Buffalo's drafts to teams that were drafting in the same range as us to determine if Beane does better or worse on average with those teams. Again, I think it is an unfair comparison to compare Beane's drafts with teams that are drafting significantly higher than us.