folz

Yeah, I guess I wasn't thinking of it only as Dorsey vs. Brady, but that probably would have been a better delineation, as far as trying to see if there was a style change between the two OCs. I guess I just tried to cut it right down the middle---and because, as far as individual player stats were concerned (particularly for Kincaid and Shakir), that is right about where the change started to happen (mostly due to Knox's injury). But yes, using the division between the coordinators might be a better place as far as looking at the run/pass balance.

Great original post Shaw. I took up your challenge from your above post...it's not the most "in-depth" dive, and doesn't answer all of your questions, but it at least gives a good overview to try and draw some conclusions. Here are the snap counts, targets, and yards for the top pass catchers in 2023, divided into the first half of the season and the second half of the year: Player 1st 8 games (snaps/targets/yards) Last 9 games (snaps/targets/yards) Diggs 85%/90/748 78%/70/435 Davis 86%/47/434 81%/34/312 Kincaid 55%/34/258 64%/57/415 Shakir 31%/15/167 70%/30/444 Knox 68%/28/102 (7 games only/INJ) 49%/8/84 (5 games only (INJ) Sherfield 32%/8/44 36%/14/32 Harty 20%/16/113 7%/5/37 Cook X/22/192 X/32/253 Overall, looking at total passing targets, the Bills averaged 33 passing targets/game over the first half of the season, and 28 passing targets per game over the 2nd half of the season. So, there is a bit of a drop. Adding up all of the QB/RB rushing attempts, the Bills averaged 26 rush plays/game over the first half of the year, and 32 rush plays over the second half. So, the Bills had a 33/26 pass/rush split, or a 56%/44% pass/rush balance for the first half of the season, and a 28/32 pass/rush split, or a 47%/53% pass/rush balance over the back half. Obviously, end-of-the-year weather has something to do with rushing more in the second half, but it does seem offensive philosophy may have been involved as well. It was a closer balance in the 2nd half of the season, but leaned more to the run game than the pass. And interesting to note, though Cook's attempts did increase from 13 to 15 rushes per game in the 2nd half, the much larger increase in rushing was from Josh, who went from 4.75 rushes/game in the first half to 8.33 rushes /game in the 2nd half. Again, how much of that was philosophy and how much was end-of-the-year desperation, gotta get it done one way or the other, who knows? As to the individual receiving players, Shakir was the big change, going from a 31% snap count in the first half of the season to a 70% snap count in the 2nd half and doubling his targets. Kincaid saw a decent increase in snap count, but a significant jump in targets. Diggs and Davis didn't have much of a change in snap count throughout the year, so the extra snaps for Shakir and Kincaid were mostly poached from Knox and Harty. But, Shakir and Kincaid were apparently stealing targets from Diggs and Davis. D&D averaged 17 combined targets in the first half of the season, and 12 combined targets in the 2nd half. Whereas, Kincaid and Shakir averaged 6 combined targets at the start of the year, and 10 combined targets in the 2nd half of the year. Looking up the stats for all of this, the one that really jumped out at me though was catch rate for the 2023 season: Diggs 66% Davis 56% Kincaid 79% Shakir 86% Knox 62% Sherfield 48% Harty 74% We already knew that Davis and Knox weren't the most sure-handed receivers, but that was a big drop-off for Diggs last year. In his defense, he has a lot more targets, which means more opportunities for misses too---but I don't think that 66% seems great for your #1 receiver*, especially when his playoff production hasn't been stellar, and he is unhappy. Coleman is supposed to have very good hands. I think they are making a concerted effort for more reliability in that department. *For comparison to other top receivers: Lamb, Collins, Allen, D. Smith, St. Brown, Moore, Pittman are all in the 71-72% catch rate range; Hill, Chase, Robinson, Godwin have a 69% catch rate; Curtis Samuel, Jefferson, and Waddle are all around 68%. And granted it was only on 45 targets (about 28% the number of say Diggs' targets), but Khalil's 86% catch rate was best in the league last year; and Kincaid's 79% was the 5th best catch rate for a TE last season (and two of the TEs ahead of him only had like 40 targets, compared to Dalton's 91).

March Madness is by far the best sporting event every calendar year. To me, the Super Bowl has become almost unwatchable (NFL playoffs are still good---just not the SB). And for the first time in 48 years of watching the NFL, I didn't even watch the Super Bowl this year. I knew exactly how it was going to play out: SF would have a late lead and KC would come back and win. There was no way that they weren't going to have a Mahomes/Kelce/Taylor Swift threesome love-fest/celebration...and I didn't want to see it. Now if I had to choose between a March Madness game and even a regular season Bills game, I'm watching the Bills. And of course, if the Bills were in the Super Bowl, that would be the clear winner. But yes, March Madness (and/or the Final Four) is better than the Super Bowl at this point, imo.

Loved watching Stefon and I'm thankful for all he brought to the Bills. I wish him the best and will continue to root for him (except when playing the Bills). But, this was the right move (whether Stefon was trying to force it or not). The relationship between Josh and Stefon had obviously soured. And they had kind of been co-leaders of the offense for a few years. Tough if your co-leaders aren't seeing eye to eye. This empowers Josh to be THE leader of the offense and the team. He doesn't have to worry about stepping on anyone's toes, forcing balls, etc. It is his team now. And if someone truly is unhappy somewhere, you are better off letting them go before too much resentment builds up anyways. And as much as a lot of us didn't want to admit it at the time, there were obviously issues for Stefon dating back at least to the Cincy playoff game. We are in a transition period. I wish we could have won a Super Bowl while we still had all of the guys who helped dig us out of the drought and ushered in a new era of Bills football (Jordan, Micah, Tre, Stefon, Mitch, Beasley, etc.)...but we couldn't hold on any longer. The team would have continued getting older and each season the odds of us advancing to the big game would have just decreased. Beane is ripping off the band-aid. Besides, we all know Big Baller Beane has something up his sleeve. All of the maneuvering and the number of picks we have reminds me of the year he fought into the top 10 for Josh. So, I expect at least one very good WR to be added (wouldn't mind seeing two come in the draft). Very sad offseason (in the players we had to let go)...but also necessary. We are entering a new era of Bills football...kind of like the third chapter of Josh's career.

I usually agree with you on a lot of things Chandler, but I think you're being a bit too pessimistic when it comes to Kincaid. First of all, he was just a rookie. I think that we all hope and expect him to progress and get better from his rookie year. Most players take a big leap between year one and year two if they have enough talent to make it in the league...and I think Dalton proved he is a guy that will make it in the NFL. He also had Dorsey as an OC for half the year (where the offense struggled quite a bit) and then had to switch to a new coordinator mid-season. That could have hindered some of his growth/progress. As others have noted, I don't think drops seem to be an issue with him. No one is going to catch every ball. But according to stats, he had 4 drops (on 91 targets/73 receptions) on the year and an 80.2% catch rate. That's actually very good for a rookie and no where near the struggles that say Gabe and Knox have had.. I only noted maybe 3-4 contested balls in that video that maybe he could have caught. Don't really see this as a major issue either. Something he can work on, sure, but not a problem by any means at that rate. The TD total was definitely disappointing, but we'd really have to look at the whole season to see how he was used in the red zone, how many red zone targets did he get, etc. to determine if it is a Dalton-thing or a scheme-thing. Maybe Knox got more red zone plays when healthy due to size and previous high TD totals, etc. I do expect to see that TD total climb in the future, but I almost think that that is more on Joe Brady (scheme) and Josh Allen (trust) than it is on Dalton. BUT, the points I really wanted to make were these: 29 of Dalton's 73 receptions went for a first down. That is 40%. Forty percent of his catches went for first downs. That is huge for the team...keeping the chains moving, something we have missed since Beasley left. 311 of his 673 yards came AFTER contact. Yes, almost half of his yards were YAC. And that is with the fact, as others have pointed out, that many of his catches were either short over the middle, screens, or outlet passes---all of which are plays where the defenders (especially over the middle) are very close and ready to make an immediate tackle. They didn't design a lot of plays for Dalton to be streaking down the seam or sideline, where it is easier to run away from a defender and pick up a lot of RAC. And let's compare his rookie year to the rookie year's of some recent great Tight Ends: TE ROOKIE SEASON STATS Dalton 73 recs. 673 yards. 2 TDs. 80.2% catch rate. 9.2 yards/rec. 29 first downs. 1 fumble. Gronk 42 recs. 546 yards. 10 TDs. 71.2% catch rate. 13 yards/rec. 30 first downs. 1 fumble. Kelce 67 recs. 862 yards. 5 TDs. 77% catch rate. 12.9 yards/rec. 46 first downs. 4 fumbles. (Note this was year 2 for Kelce, he sat his entire rookie year. Kittle 43 recs. 515 yards. 2 TDs. 68.3% catch rate. 12 yards/rec. 24 first downs. 0 fumbles. Dalton had the most receptions. Only Kelce had more yards (in year two, of course). Dalton had the best catch percentage. Only Gronk, really, had more first downs. So, the only place where Dalton fell behind is yards/rec. and TDs (well, basically only to Gronk)---and I think both of those things are more dependent on scheme and opportunity than Dalton lacking anything. I think the only reason people may think that Dalton didn't live up to the billing enough (other than his TD totals) is because of the year that Sam LaPorta had. But LaPorta is the exception to the rule, having had one of the best rookie TE seasons in the history of the NFL. And again, that isn't just skill, but also circumstances, situation, and opportunity. LaPorta had 120 targets compared to Dalton's 91...and Sam played 83% of his team's snaps, while Dalton played 63% of his team's snaps. If you pro-rate Dalton's stats to 120 targets, it would look like this in compariosn. Dalton 96 recs. 887 yards. 3 TDs. LaPorta 86 recs. 889 yards. 10 TDs. So, again, it is only the TD totals that would separate them. Dalton had an excellent rookie season for a TE and I think we all know there is still a lot of room for growth and development (such as in the blocking department, etc.), but I see no reason why Kincaid can't or won't continue to improve and be a big part of the success of this team. Nothing from his rookie season makes me worry about his not reaching his potential and being an important player for this team for years to come.

Watching his short highlight clip, he looks to have some speed (to chase down QBs) and very good instincts (dissecting plays). Seems to be more of a power/bull rusher, didn't see much variance in his pass rush moves from those handful of clips, but his profile said he can bend the corner too. Of course the highlights don't show us plays where maybe he made a mistake or missed a tackle, etc. But, for a guy whose name I didn't even know until today, and who will be deep in the rotation, looks like a decent signing to me. Hopefully he's ready to take the next step in his career. 🤞 6'5" 254 lbs. 5th-year player. 27 years old. Drafted by Philly in the 7th round out of Stanford, picked up by Washington mid-rookie year after being waived. Spent 3-1/2 years with the Commanders. Only 14 starts in his career (but 57 games played)---his snaps counts in Washington over the last three years were 35%, 36%, and then 45% last season. 80 total tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 20 QB hits, 7 career sacks, 2 passes defended, 3 fumble recoveries (1 TD).

Seven year vet. originally a 4th rounder to Philly. 6' 4" and 221 lbs. Big kid. 30 years old. Has played for Philly, Miami, Las Vegas, and then Atlanta last year. Career: 131 receptions for 1,691 yards and 10 TDs. Best year was in Vegas two years ago when he had 690 yards and 4 TDs on 57 receptions. Special Teams Ace. Was a special teams captain for the Falcons last year

The average number of touchdowns for the last 10 MVPs is 44 TDs in their MVP season. Lamar had 29 total TDs this year. Josh had 44 TDs this year. I don't care about race (it's more the bias against Josh than race being a factor for Lamar), and I understand why people voted for Lamar. But, I can also disagree with their decision. Let's face it, there was no clear-cut MVP this season. Josh was doomed by his interceptions and the irrational media bias against him, even though the TDs sooooo outweigh the interceptions. And with only 29 TDs on the year, it shows that the Baltimore's defense was more of the MVP than Lamar was. The MVP is an individual award, not a team award. Josh had 628 yards more passing than Lamar, while Lamar had 287 more rushing yards than Josh. So, Josh still had 341 more yards from scrimmage than Lamar and 15 more touchdowns. Their team's were only 2 games apart in the final standings, and Josh had a slightly better record against playoff teams than Lamar. As far as total turnovers, Lamar had 13 and Josh had 22. But, there is always an element of luck to turnovers. For instance, Lamar fumbled 11 times...but only lost 6. Plus, how many near picks did he have this year that didn't get caught or whatever, where it seemed every freak batted-ball for Josh this year, some defender made an incredible play to make the INT. Still, we are talking about a 9-turnover difference between the two. Even if every one of Josh's turnovers turned into a TD for the other team (which they didn't, not by a long shot), that would equate to 63 points. The difference between their TD totals is 105 points. Plus, none of Josh's turnovers occurred in the 4th quarter. He wasn't losing games due to his INTs. In fact, most games that he had an INT, he also had his team in the lead in the 4th quarter (all but the Jets game). So, again, the INTs didn't hurt the team as much as they might appear to have. Lamar had three games with zero TDs and eight more games with only one TD. That's 11 games, or 69% of the season. So, for almost 70% of the season, Lamar had only one or zero TDs per game. Is that really an MVP? The Ravens only scored 32 points more than the Bills this season. Across 17 games that equates to 1.8 points more per game (not a huge difference---if you are trying to use point totals for games as a plus for Lamar). Lamar accounted for 42.9% of his team's points. Josh accounted for 68.3% of his team's points. As I said, there was no clear-cut MVP choice this year, but still, imo, Lamar was the wrong choice.

Pros: He still had 1,395 yards from scrimmage this year, with a 4.2/rush average, and 12 TDs. He has been an absolute beast over the last 6 years, averaging almost 1,576 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs per season. He's been durable. Other than missing the back half of the 2021 season with a broken foot, he has only missed 3 games over the other seven years of his career. Cons: He's 30 years old. He has 2,030 rushes over his career. He has averaged 306 carries/year over the last 5 years. That's a lot of mileage on those tires. He may still cost a pretty penny.

Dude, you call this TRUTH? Once again, it is more of the same from Dunne. No intelligent discourse, just opinions and name-calling---supposedly backed by a few disgruntled, former employees. If this passes for truth in today's media, then we all need to turn off our computers and televisions. Geesh! I don't have a problem with people wanting to move on from McDermott and explaining their reasons why, but whatever you think of him as a coach, he is a good man, and this is not the way you go about criticizing the job he is doing. It is obviously personal for Dunne. I mean, "a simpleton"? Someone may not make a great NFL coach, but you aren't getting to that position in the first place if you are a simpleton. Come on.

May God bless you and your family with the love and strength to get through this difficult time. ♥️

-Only 9 of Josh's interceptions came in the 6 Bills' losses. So, he threw an average of 1.5 INTs in the Bills' losses (none in the 4th quarter). -Nine of Josh's INTs came in wins (so, they obviously didn't affect the outcome of those games). -Only in three of the Bills' losses did Josh throw more than 1 pick (2 in each of those three games). Having one pick in a game isn't usually the deciding factor, unless it is at the wrong point in the game (which it wasn't for Josh). So, at best, you could say Josh's interceptions affected 3 games this year. But again, outside of the Jets game on opening day, Josh still had the team in position to win those games (the defense just didn't hold). In Baltimore's three losses, Jackson has thrown three interceptions. So, 1 per game (not that different than 1.5). And since you brought up former MVP stats (INTs in your post), let's look at MVP TDs. Here are the TD totals for the last 10 MVPs Year Player Total TDs 2022 Mahomes 45 2021 Rodgers 40 2020 Rodgers 51 2019 Jackson 43 2018 Mahomes 52 2017 Brady 32 2016 Ryan 38 2015 Newton 45 2014 Rodgers 40 2013 Manning 56 2023 Jackson 29 2023 Allen 44 So, you can say no MVP has had as many INTs as Josh in the last 10 years, but you can also say that no MVP had as low of a touchdown total as Jackson in the last 10 years. Why are Josh's INTs an issue, but Lamar's low TD total isn't? Especially when TDs are 7 points each time, while INTs may turn into 7 points, but maybe only 3 points, or zero points if the defense holds. So, TDs still outweigh INTs. Brady in 2017 is the only one close to Lamar's low TD total, but he had 900 more passing yards in 2017 than Jackson did this year. Even if you add in rushing, Brady still had more than 110 yards more than Lamar, 3 more TDs, and one less INT. Every other MVP had anywhere from 9 to 27 more TDs than 2023 Lamar. Do you know what the average TD total is for the last 10 MVPs? It is 44.2 TDs. Right where Josh is at (44) and 15 more TDs than Jackson this year. Even in Jackson's 2019 MVP season, he had 14 more TDs than he has this year.

My post was in response to someone who said Lamar crushed playoff teams (as his argument for why Lamar over Josh for MVP). So, that is why I pointed out their records vs. playoff teams, to show that Lamar doesn't have that as something over Josh. Josh did very well (actually better) against playoff teams---even if it's a team stat really. Of course, losing to bad teams does not look good. But, as the OP's video pointed out (we are talking for individual MVP, not team here), all but the Jets opening day loss, Josh put the team ahead in the 4th quarter, but the defense was unable to stop the opposing team from scoring and taking the game. So, you can't really pin those losses on Josh from an individual standpoint. And Josh never blew a game in the 4th quarter with a turnover and has the lowest negative/bad play impact of any QB in the league (despite the turnovers). And of course, wins and losses are a team stat. But, why do the Lamar supporters get to hold up his team's record as a reason he should be MVP (when his defense carried many of those wins), but with Josh, if I bring up wins against playoff teams, all of a sudden wins are a team stat and can't be used in Josh's defense? Again, are two more regular season wins for Jackson (and his defense) the deciding factor here? If wins are a team stat, then those two wins more than Josh shouldn't be the deciding factor, right? As far as consistency, I will grant you that Baltimore as a team was more consistent than the Bills as a team this year. But Lamar? Jackson had 3 games with 0 TDs (rushing or passing), and 5 games with only 1 TD (rush or pass). So, 8 games with 1 or 0 TDs. That's almost half the season. Are those MVP worthy stats? Lamar had 7 games with fewer than 200 yards passing. [To include rushing] Lamar had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage Lamar had 10 games under 300 yards from scrimmage Josh had 1 game with only one TD (he did not have any zero TD games). Josh had 4 games with fewer than 200 yards passing. [Below are same number of games as Lamar] Josh had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage. Josh had 10 games with under 300 yards from scrimmage. People also bring up that the Ravens were blowing people out, so the Ravens took their foot off the gas in those games leading to lower stats for Lamar. Well, Baltimore had 9 blowout wins (2 TDs or more). The Bills, despite their inconsistency, had 6 blowout wins. So, that's only maybe 3-5 quarters of football all year more than Josh that Lamar "didn't need to do much." Keep them coming fellas. Convince me where Lamar's season was far superior.

While the Ravens did have a harder overall schedule (according to wins and losses by opponents), Josh (the Bills) had a better record against playoff teams. Josh/Bills were 5-1 against playoff teams, with the only loss being to Philly in OT, a game that the refs stole from Buffalo (and should have been a win). Lamar/Ravens were 6-3 against playoff teams---you could subtract one loss due to Baltimore sitting Jackson and others in week 18, to make a 6-2 record vs. playoff teams for Lamar. So, Josh won 83.33% of games vs. playoff teams (as I said, it should have been 100%), and Lamar won 75% of games vs. playoff teams (not counting week 18).

I guess you didn't actually watch the video. The video shows pretty clearly that the bold statement in your post is incorrect. You can really only put one game on Josh, the Jets on opening day. Also noted in the video... Do you think Mahomes shouldn't have won the MVP in 2018? Because Pat had 21 turnovers that season, yet was still the unanimous MVP. Josh had 22 turnovers in 2023. I'm not saying Josh should absolutely win it, but I don't understand the people that think Allen shouldn't even be in the race with Jackson. It's amazing to me how many people (fans/media) still seem to have a bias against Allen. Josh accounted for 308 points this season. Lamar accounted for 203 points this season. That's basically one more touchdown for Josh in every game this year. Josh Lamar Total Yards 4,830 4,499 Passing Yards 4,306 3,678 Rushing Yards 524 821 Total TDs 44 29 Passing TDs 29 24 Rushing TDs 15 5 Completion % 66.5% 67.2% Total Turnovers 22 13 Yes, Lamar played one less game than Josh, but if you added one game at his season averages, he would still be 50 yards behind Josh and still way behind Josh's TD totals. You could also argue that Lamar had 9 less turnovers than Josh. But, even if each of those extra turnovers turned into a TD (which they didn't), that would only be a 63-point differential---while Josh's extra TDs (over Lamar's number) equates to 105 points. The difference in completion percentage is negligible. They are the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC. So, is it simply because the Ravens have two more wins? Does that make an MVP? Otherwise, I'm having a hard time seeing why Lamar is the clear-cut leader. What makes his case so superior to Josh's case?