folz

Ha, well that's still real young to me. Yeah, I didn't realize he'd been in the league a few years already. Ok, I like him less as a developmental guy and more as an emergency guy then. 😁

Glad to see Buechele, Gore, Gosnell, Wilkerson, Latu, Ciarlo, and Jenkins make the PS. That was pretty much the preseason guys I liked or thought flashed. Wish Zach Davidson also made the PS. But pretty happy with the depth the PS provides as it is. I wouldn't have minded seeing Shenault and/or Hamler, but think I prefer developing the young guys (Wilkerson and Gosnell). I really like what Wilkerson showed in the preseason: good hands, tough (dirty) catches, etc.

Thank you for a clear answer Roscoe. I'm hoping that they just felt that he needed the extra reps, rather than that he is terrible. And yes, with all of the new guys brought in (draft and FA), his position is maybe more tenuous. But, with the two suspended guys, he is currently 2nd string behind Ed (Oliver's main backup to start the season), so I guess we'll get a better idea once the real games start. But, I'm holding out hope for him. I thought he showed flashes before his injury last year. Hopefully he'll develop and get better.

I'm having a really hard time understanding all of this negativity around Carter. Honestly, where is it coming from? People calling him a bust, wanting to dump him, etc. He is a 3rd round pick going into just year two...when his rookie year was ended by injury. How could any of you know that he is a bust already? It honestly makes no sense to me. Probably the same people that were doubting all off-season that Keon could improve on his rookie season (and yet he has been ballin' out in camp). I mean, why even draft players if you are going to drop them after one year...just play the FA market instead. Back in the day, most rookies didn't start their rookie year and many of them didn't see the field until year 3. We, as fans, knew this (some guys take time to develop), so we were much more patient than the fan of today. But seriously, someone please tell me what he did or didn't do to deserve all of this negativity. Is it just a whipping boy scenario? Did one person say something negative and then everyone just jumped on board? I just don't get it...someone please explain with more than he's a bust or he's trash as to why you are down on him.

I thought episodes 1 and 2 were pretty dull, but I have enjoyed watching episodes 3 and 4...they have been much better (even if they aren't really digging too deep on anything).

I think the only way they could let Codrington go was if Shenault could also handle punt return duties. I really liked Shenault as a kick returner (and it seemed he offered more at his position than Codrington does at his). But, apparently they weren't sold on him at punt return (he only had one punt return for 7 yards in the pre-season---he has no punt returns in 4 years in the league---not sure how he looked at practice). Plus, it might have been tough to keep 7 receivers---we weren't even sure if they would keep 6. The only reason I thought Codrington might be in trouble is because he was inactive for all 3 playoff games last year...I assume because he wasn't able to also help on defense which was needed due to injuries. We had Davis and Johnson handle KOs and Shakir handle punt duties in the playoffs. But I don't think the team wanted any of those guys doing it all season. Now, I have no problem with Codrington as our returner though, I think he is a very good returner, I was just hoping they could maybe maximize the roster spot if someone or two someones could beat him out (and who might help more at their position duties). And it has been said elsewhere, but why are so many people all of a sudden down on DeWayne Carter? I thought he was starting to come on last year (showing flashes) before the injury. I didn't keep up with camp as much this year as usual (other than watching the preseason games), so is there something I don't know about? Did something happen in camp to make so many people down on a 3rd round pick going into just his second year? None of these cuts were surprises, but these are guys I liked that got cut (along with Big Phil ☺️) Jimmy Ciarlo Frank Gore, Jr. Zach Davidson Shane Buechele Kristian Wilkerson Laviska Shenault (more so for his kick returning than at WR) But hopefully, most of them will make it to the practice squad...so no real loss. Very happy for Shavers!

I'm not knocking Roseman for anything, and I'm not trying to say that Beane is a better overall GM than Roseman---as you said, you can't argue with 2 Super Bowl wins and 3 appearances. I was only saying that the Eagles are not a good comparison when it comes to assessing Beane's drafting, mainly because the Eagles have had more premium picks and a higher-overall draft position (specifically over the last 5 years, but I expanded it to 8 at your request). How they got those picks may indeed have been some savvy GM work (not unlike Beane moving up for Josh), but if you are trying to compare just drafted players to drafted players, who did better, well it's not an apples to apples comparison imo. To be clearer with the data: Over the last eight years (2017-2024): The Eagles have had 58 total picks, with an average draft position of 124. They have had 23 picks in the first three rounds, with an average draft position of 48. The Bills have had 61 total picks, with an average draft position of 136. They have had 24 picks in the first three rounds, with an average draft position of 57. 1st Round 2nd Round 3rd Round Eagles picks 9, 10, 13, 14, 21, 22, 22, 30 37, 40, 43, 49, 51, 53, 53, 57 65, 66, 73, 83, 94, 99, 103 Bills picks 7, 9, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30 33, 37, 38, 54, 59, 60, 61, 63, 63 74, 86, 89, 91, 93, 95, 96, 96 In the first three rounds, the Eagles have picked above the Bills 17 of 24 times (71% of the time). [I bolded the picks where the Bills actually picked higher---and 4 of the 7 are at the end of the third round---and the other 3 picks are only separated by 1 or 2 spots]. If a GM could pick which set of draft picks he'd rather have, they are going to take the Eagles picks. We can argue the amount of an advantage it is, but it is an advantage. And again, if you only look at the last 5 years, when the Eagles acquired most of the "impact" players that people refer to, rather than the last 8 years, the difference in draft position between the two teams is even more pronounced. As I noted before, last 5 years, the Bills highest draft pick was 23. The Eagles had 5 picks better than 23 in that span.

Yes, and in the two years that I didn't include they drafted Tre, Dion, Milano, Taron, Harrison Phillips, Tremaine Edmunds, Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, oh and a guy named Josh Allen (all guys who are still playing in the league after 7-8 years, six of whom are still with the Bills---and when the average NFL player's career is only 3.3 years). But, I'll add 2017 and 2018 in the comparison with Philadelphia. Over the last eight years (2017-2024), the Eagles average first three picks is 55 and the Bills is 59. But, in 2018, the Eagles did not have a 1st or 3rd round pick (which I assume they traded for a high-end player, such as the Bills trading a 1st for Diggs). So, if I instead changed it to over the last seven years what is the Eagles average draft pick in the first three rounds? It's 48, compared to the Bills 55.4. Highest picks over that span: Bills: 7, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 = 161 (or an average of 23) Eagles: 9, 10, 13, 14, 21, 22, 30 = 119 (or an average of 17)

The Eagles are not a good comparison. Over the last 5 years, the average draft position of their first three picks is 47. The Bills average draft position of their first three picks over the same years is 66. That is quite a difference I would say. Plus, in that time, the Bills highest draft pick was 23. The Eagles have had 5 draft picks higher than 23 over that span, with three picks in the top thirteen (9, 10, and 13). Apples to oranges my friend.

Obviously you do not realize that only about 17-28% of third round picks in the NFL become starters (depending on whose number you use). Singletary was a starter for four years. So you are doubly wrong. Singletary would fall into the 17-28%, which means he was better than 72-83% of other 3rd round picks across the league. Most teams average just 1.7 four+-year starters per draft (out of 7-10 picks generally). So, if you get 2 long-term starters from a draft, you are above the curve. So, again, shows you that not all 2nd and 3rd rounders (or first for that matter) become starters. "From a team standpoint, if just one of your draft picks is extended in a second contract, that is an average draft. Extending two is a good draft, and 3 or more extraordinarily good." [This is a quote from the last link below.] This idea that other teams (or at least all of the best teams) are crushing their 2nd and 3rd round picks (hitting on starters every year in those rounds) and that Beane sucks is just not reality. Try looking at other team's drafts in comparison (noting where they are drafting as well) if you want to truly assess Beane's drafting. But to only look at our picks (and with unrealistic expectations) is not a good way to assess our GM. Also, I'd like to address this idea of impact players. In the last link below, a guy did a study of 1996-2016 and broke players down into tiers. Only 1% of draftees became legendary and only 6.9% of draftees become great. That is kind of what people are looking for in relation to "impact" players. Yet, only 7.9% of total drafted players reach that status. [In a draft of approx. 230 players, that means only 18 players will be "impact" players---so basically half of the teams each year do not get an "impact"---pro bowl level player.] And then, only 12.3% fall into the good (above average) category...which I don't think people would categorize as "impact" players. Next come the JAGs, the average players. They make up another 10.5%. So, only about 30% of drafted players overall become average or better and only about 20% of drafted players become above average. [The article is from 2022 and he did look to see if things changed from the earlier data until then, but he said the numbers were still pretty much the same---up to 2022.] https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/ https://www.windycitygridiron.com/f/2022/7/13/23206891/where-was-the-average-nfl-offensive-starter-drafted-by-position https://www.thehogsty.com/2025/04/21/updated-the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/ https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

He threw a punch at TE Zach Davidson because Zach was aggressively blocking through the whistle.

If there was collusion, i.e. if the league, commissioner, other owners all said don't draft him, then why did Cleveland draft him? Someone might say, no one should draft him, I don't like his attitude, and some others may agree, but what are the consequences for going against the collusion? For there to be collusion, then everyone would have to agree/cooperate and/or there would have to be consequences if you don't go along with the plan. Why would Cleveland go against the league then? And is it really collusion if he actually got drafted? Obviously Cleveland did not participate in the collusion. Was the collusion specific? No one draft him in the first three rounds, after that whatever. Take a team like the Bills, say Josh was 10 years older and we were looking for a replacement to groom. Is there any way that Beane and McDermott are going with Sanders? No, not a Bills DNA type of guy. How many other GMs and coaches think the same way? There did not need to be collusion for this to happen. Now, I don't put anything "negative" past the NFL at this point. I'm sure there are tons of questionable issues and practices in the league. But in this situation, I really don't see it. I think he could have refused to workout at the combine, but if he went in with a good attitude and took the interviews seriously, he could have maximized his draft status. But honestly, how many teams want a guy with apparent attitude and/or ego problems? Or who tells you (in words or actions) that he doesn't want to play for your team? Remember a franchise QB is the face of your franchise. They are the ones on TV and at community and charitable events representing your organization the most. You want them to be a leader on the field and in the locker room. If he can't rally his teammates around him (because they don't like him or he's an egomaniac) and there isn't cohesion in the locker room, you aren't going to be very successful, even if the guy is very talented. We aren't talking about a WR or DE with some questions about character/attitude, we are talking about the QB, the #1 guy you need on board and leading the other guys. I mean, where in the world is Josh Rosen? How about Ryan Leaf? or Vince Young? or Jeff George? They may not have been good enough in the long run, skill-wise...but their attitudes and temperaments definitely made sure their careers were short and unsuccessful. And obviously the teams that drafted them regretted it, much more so than just a standard nice, good attitude guy bust (like an EJ Manuel or JP Losman)---because they bring so many headaches on top of not playing well. No one wants one of those guys...especially if he isn't head-and-shoulders above the rest talent-wise. It's just that simple. But as others have said, Sanders is in the league, so he has every opportunity now to prove everyone wrong about him or to be able to mature and grow into a franchise QB. I don't expect it to happen, but that's only up to Shedeur and Cleveland at this point, not any of us.

It's probably tough to determine how much is scheme, how much is play calling, how much is personnel, how much is player execution, etc. But, I'd say the aging/loss of Hyde and Poyer and the fact that our two best coverage LBs (our starters: Milano and Bernard) have missed 32 games over the last two years is probably as big of a reason over the last two seasons. Not the only reason, but by no means insignificant. Was just trying to note that the core scheme can win Super Bowls (Spagnuolo) if employed properly. And again, considering the last three times we faced KC in the playoffs, at the end of regulation they were only up by 6 points (across 3 games), tells me that even if we didn't play great defense in those games, we have still been so close to the promised land. If the coin flip goes the other way in 2020, if Bass makes the field goal in 2023, if the refs give Josh the first down or Kincaid catches that ball. People may not love our defense, but it can get us to where we need to go. We just need to improve the pass rush and hopefully have no liabilities in the secondary (we'll see how that goes this season---it is a little bit of a concern still). But, you raised a legitimate question. Only 5 teams (Vikings, Chargers, Colts, Bucs, and Falcons) ran less man coverage than the Bills last year. But again, how much of that is personnel? I'm sure McD took fewer risks with Douglas and Hamlin being in the secondary (as opposed to Hyde, Poyer, and a healthy Tre or whatever) and not having a great pass rush...while Spags could take more risks (both with man coverage and blitzing) with an All-Pro corner like McDuffie (who often followed the best opposing receiver last season), and a pass rusher like Chris Jones, etc. The other question would be, can our CBs be successful playing more man? Is that in their skillset? Are they good enough for it? Or would we have guys getting burned without the zone scheme to protect (other guys in position to make the tackle if the completion is made/the CB gets burned). There is also this: https://www.paraballnotes.com/blog/man-vs-zone-defense-which-one-is-most-efficient-against-passing-plays "Undoubtedly, zone defense has outperformed man defense when facing passing plays. Teams have allowed 10.4% fewer EPA per play and 22.8% less WPA per play while using zone coverage compared to man coverage. It’s evident that NFL teams have noticed this performance gap: the proportion of man defense usage against passing plays has declined from a peak of 37.2% in 2019 to a low of 28.5% in 2023." Man coverage dipped even a bit further in 2024, with a league average of 27.6%. But, yes, the Bills were still on the low end of that average last year. So, who knows for sure Oldmanfan...I'm just throwing information out there that I found on the net and then what I see with the team. But I am by no means a football savant or anything.

To your first point: If you add up the records of all of the Bills' and Chiefs' playoff opponents over the last 6 years, it looks like this: Chiefs' playoff opponents: 216-99 (in 19 games) Bills' playoff opponents: 147-69 (13 games) That means: Chiefs' playoff opponents combined average record is 11.37 wins and 5.21 losses with a 68.57% win percentage. Bills' playoff opponents combined average record is 11.31 wins and 5.31 losses with a 68.06% win percentage. So, I'm not sure that you can use strength of opponent as an argument really. And I'm not sure what your other two points are arguing: -What do KC's Super Bowl blowouts have to do with it. Are you saying because so many points were scored in one game that all of those points shouldn't count? Or that because it is the SB, it means they are superior opponents. Yes, Philly was 14-3 last year, but Tampa was only 11-5 in 2020. In the same years, 2024 and 2020, the Bills lost to KC with records of 14-2 and 15-2. -He also didn't mention that the Bills held the Ravens to 3 points (2020) and Denver to 7 points (2024). Please do go on...

Apologies in advance for a very long post. This idea that McDermott scapegoats guys or sets them up as fall guys needs to be retired. He's only ever trying to make the team better (and obviously he's not going to fire himself). But to think that he sets guys up so when the team fails he can project blame on to them and throw them to the wolves is such the opposite of who Sean is as a man. After almost 9 years coaching this team, Bills fans should know that about his character. I posted this in another thread recently, but think it should be repeated as so many posters continually say that basically we didn't make any changes on defense except for adding Bosa: This off-season, the Bills hired Ryan Nielsen as a senior defensive assistant and Jason Rebrovich as assistant DL coach. -Ryan Nielsen was the DC for Jacksonville last year, he was the DC and DL coach for Atlanta prior to that, and in his stint in New Orleans, he was DL coach, co-DC, and assistant Head Coach. In college, he played as a defensive tackle for USC. He has coached for 13 years in college and 8 years in the NFL. -Jason Rebrovich started his pro-coaching career in Buffalo, eventually becoming both a DL coach and an outside LB coach for the Bills, he then went to Jax and became their DL coach, and then in Green Bay, he was outside LBs coach, DL coach, and pass rush specialist. He's coached 12 years in college and 12 years in the league. During the Giants preseason game, they talked a little bit about bringing Nielsen in and said that he was brought in specifically to help the D-line and pass rush and that he would probably help Sean install more 5-man fronts and other variations. And obviously, Rebrovich (as DL coach, outside LB coach, and Pass rush specialist) was brought in to help the pass-rush scheme and to help the young pass rushers develop. The Bills brought in 6 FAs on the DL/outside LB: Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi, Shaq Thompson, Casey Rodgers, and Marcus Harris. The Bills drafted 3 new guys for the DL: Sanders, Jackson, Walker. They also added a first round cornerback (Hairston), a 5th round CB (Hancock), and a 6th round CB (Strong), and brought back Tre and Dane (however you feel about them). I'd say that is a lot more change than just adding Bosa. Kind of seems like you guys aren't really paying attention. Spagnolo and McDermott are both proteges of Jim Johnson (see below). And as far as McD not having it in him to change, see above, regarding the two new coaching hires. I am no big Xs and Os guy, so those who are more knowledgeable, please correct me if I am wrong, or where I might be wrong. But the idea that the scheme is the problem and won't work in the playoffs made me think about the fact that Sean and Steve Spagnuolo were both proteges of Jim Johnson. Now, it has been many years since they worked with Jim, so I'm sure they picked up other nuances elsewhere along the way, or developed their own wrinkles. But I wondered, if at the core, it is a similar system. I couldn't find anything definitive comparing the two teams/systems or specifically stating that they both run the old Johnson system (or a variance of it), but here are a few things I found: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Spagnuolo "Spagnuolo learned under Philadelphia defensive coach Jim Johnson, and shares the same aggressive, blitz-heavy approach as his mentor. Spagnuolo uses a 4–3 base defense with a heavy emphasis on multiple blitz packages, including corner and safety blitzes." https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2023/2/8/23591081/chiefs-eagles-super-bowl-lvii-quarterbacks-changed-steve-spagnuolos-career “Steve’s very creative [and] smart,” observed Andy Reid. “A real tribute to Springfield College. He’s been in the league, and he had a good tutor in Jim Johnson when he was young. So he’s been able to build off of that scheme [and] be very innovative with it.” So, it does appear that his core is still the Jim Johnson system (like Sean). https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5224800/2024/01/26/steve-spagnuolo-chiefs-defense-nfl-playoffs/ "Spagnuolo’s best blend of producing an effective pass rush, exceptional coverage and timely blitzes occurs when he employs dime personnel — six defensive backs, one linebacker and four linemen, a personnel grouping he used most in the league." "'Spags is a wizard, man,' defensive end Mike Danna said. 'He’s got tons of blitzes, and he knows how to get after a quarterback.' The Chiefs blitzed on third down at the fifth-highest rate in the league (39.3 percent)." I couldn't find a 3rd down blitz percentage for Buffalo last year (if anyone else can find it, would be interesting to see...but my gut tells me ean blitzes less). "Kansas City had just 17 takeaways in the regular season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. But Chiefs defenders are just as happy getting a third- or fourth-down stop as they are generating turnovers because of one reason: They have Mahomes, the league’s best quarterback. 'The ability to get stops and prevent first downs is more predictive than the ability to get takeaways,' Schatz said. 'Takeaways are hugely important, but they’re not as predictive. If what you want is consistent defense, being able to get stops is more important.' They also talked about him disguising coverages and blitzing CBs/safeties. Ok, so the Bills run a lot of dime package as well. McD also blitzes corners and safeties and disguises his coverage (when he's got the players to do so). The Chiefs played 35% man coverage and 65% zone coverage in 2024, while the Bills played 25% man coverage and 75% zone coverage. So, they appear to be running a very similar system with the main differences being a 10% difference in man/zone coverage, a higher focus on getting off the field on 3rd down rather than getting turnovers, and Spags is a "wizard" with blitzes. (I'm not saying McD is as good as Spags, just trying to assess if they are running a similar system.) As far as turnovers, some say the Bills can't repeat the turnover ratio from last year, well, that is more on Josh than the defense as the defense has been 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd in takeaways over the last 5 years. So, Sean's defense is very good at creating turnovers. But is the Chiefs philosophy on that better? And Spags may be a wizard at blitz packages, but it also helps to have a player like Chris Jones (which McD has not had). Hopefully Bosa can at least help in that category this year (what could have been if Von didn't get injured...he was playing really well his first year with the Bills). Plus, as I said, Sean brought in those two new coaches to help with the blitz packages/pass rush. He is at least trying to improve where we have been lacking (we'll see if it all works, coaching, new players, etc.). But, at the core, it appears they run a similar system. So, I don't think the Bills defensive system is incapable of winning in the playoffs or against good teams or needs to be scrapped, we just need to improve in certain areas (mainly rushing the QB). As far as third downs go, the Bills were terrible last year (30th place) and mediocre in 2023 (18th place). But how much of that was just adapting without Hyde and Poyer (and add in the weak pass rush). But, in 5 of the prior 6 years (2017-2022), they finished 11th or higher in third down percentage (with four top 10 finishes and a first place finish in 2021). So the system is capable of getting stops, we just haven't done it well the last two years (again, is that more personnel?). Obviously fixing the pass rush and adding a 1st round corner were the #1 priorities this year. Unfortunately safety may have to wait until next year (if Cole doesn't come on). But I don't think you can underestimate how much aging/moving on from Poyer and Hyde affected things the last two years defensively. The safeties at least won't be worse than last year, because even if we have to start Damar, he and Rapp will have more experience in the scheme and with each other (not ideal, but not a total disaster). Let's hope the pass rush works. But, yeah, having said all of that, I do not think the scheme (overall) is the problem. It seems more personnel to me. Not that we don't have good personnel, but we have not had that elite pass rusher and/or (for the last two years) the type of young, healthy safeties that allow you to take more risks. We can talk philosophy a bit in regards to Sean (amount and type of blitzes, emphasis on turnovers, etc.), but overall, over the last 8 years, I think Sean and the system have proven very competent and capable of winning. Yes, we have had let downs in the playoffs and areas we need to improve, but we have consistently been a good defensive team under McDermott. Of course, I'd take a little more aggressiveness...and hopefully we'll see that this year with the DL improvements.