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Josh Allen---has your opinion changed on him since draft night?


Big Turk

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My thoughts are from the other side of the table.  I initially thought that Buffalo would be the perfect spot for Josh Allen to land.  But I also knew he would need some time to learn the NFL game.  However I was disappointed and very concerned due to the fact Josh would not have a seasoned QB to learn the game from.  Peterman and McCarron together hardly had any NFL starting experience and I'm sure they weren't too happy with all the attention Allen was getting.  But I also knew that Allen wasn't NFL ready, I wanted him to be able to sit thru at least the first 8-10 games and learn how how a QB prepares for games in the NFL, and of course just be able to learn the offense.  And then after watching several of the games this year I also was concerned Allen may never get a chance to really succeed because so many issues on the Bills offense from the O-line to penalties to poor running game and very average and lazy (Benjamin) receivers.  So many of the Bills first 9 games they weren't even competitive.  But then these 6 games got to see Allen improve his play and Bills actually become competitive again.  So I'm much more optimistic now, but Bills definitely have to get a much better WR out there and a good possession type tight end.  

 

The interesting thing here as most of you can now see, its tough to simply tell someone how good Josh Allen may be.  You have to watch him play to understand what he brings to the game.  

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I'm always intrigued by athleticism in an NFL prospect.  I was hopeful that Josh's athleticism, intelligence and attitude would enable him to develop into a franchise QB.  I'm more confident now than I was then that he is on track to do so, but he's not there yet.

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Add me to the list of people who wanted the other Josh. I actually put my face in my hands for a while after the pick was announced and shook my head for several days afterwards. 

 

I love the pick now, I was very impressed with how Allen improved as the season went on. He made several rookie mistakes, but overall I saw a guy that can can be an absolutely great QB if he has weapons and an O-line.

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*raises hand*

 

I was pissed when we took Allen over Rosen. I fluctuated wildly on whether I liked or disliked Allen all offseason, changing my mind any given week. I was convinced Rosen would be good. I am now happy we have Allen and really think he might be something special. 

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3 minutes ago, Amaru523 said:

Add me to the list of people who wanted the other Josh. I actually put my face in my hands for a while after the pick was announced and shook my head for several days afterwards. 

 

I love the pick now, I was very impressed with how Allen improved as the season went on. He made several rookie mistakes, but overall I saw a guy that can can be an absolutely great QB if he has weapons and an O-line.

 

There were very few posters here that wanted Allen.

 

I definitely didn’t.

 

- His his boom bust projection was extremely intimidating  

- his athleticism was extremely undersold 

 

Not sure how most everyone’s opinion hasn’t changed. 

 

Even his most vehement supporters were drooling over the cannon arm, but I think he’s shown there is so much more to him.

 

jury is still 100% inconclusive on how this QB class turns out, best to worst, busts vs beasts but Josh is a far better prospect than many feared but still with a lot of work to do. 

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Absolutely.

 

He still has the issues with ball placement and decision making that worried me in college, but his leadership and ability to make a play has changed the way I see him.

 

I wanted Darnold and Mayfield and no part of either Josh.

 

Glad that I appear to be wrong as of now.

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11 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

*raises hand*

 

I was pissed when we took Allen over Rosen. I fluctuated wildly on whether I liked or disliked Allen all offseason, changing my mind any given week. I was convinced Rosen would be good. I am now happy we have Allen and really think he might be something special. 

When Josh Allen was announced, with my hopes for Josh Rosen, I dropped an F bomb in front of my family. I never swear with that crowd. I am now a big Josh Allen fan and enjoy being teased by my family for being so wrong. I believe we Bills fans have an increasingly bright future.

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5 hours ago, BananaB said:

I wasn’t a big fan on the pick, would of rather had Rosen at the time. Watching him play all year with probably the worst supporting cast in football, i’m glad Beane moved up to grab him. Now it’s time to build around him.

 

This is pretty much me.  I still feel he started far more raw in his throwing mechanics than other prospects and for that reason was not the best choice.  But in the long haul, given a certain amount of athletic ability, it's how much work and effort a guy is willing to put in that make the difference to what his ceiling will become.  Allen clearly has more than enough natural athletic ability.  And he certainly seems as though he loves to play football and is willing to put in the grind.

 

I'm excited to see what he can do with an upgrade on the pieces around him.

1 minute ago, RochesterLifer said:

When Josh Allen was announced, with my hopes for Josh Rosen, I dropped an F bomb in front of my family. I never swear with that crowd.

 

Haha I know exactly what you mean.  My daughter dislikes it intensely when I swear, so I try hard not to.  It wasn't just an F-bomb with me, it was more like an F-fusillade with a side order of several minutes inventive cussing.  I believe I instantaneously conducted a geneaological survey of Beane's ancestry for several generations.

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30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is pretty much me.  I still feel he started far more raw in his throwing mechanics than other prospects and for that reason was not the best choice.  But in the long haul, given a certain amount of athletic ability, it's how much work and effort a guy is willing to put in that make the difference to what his ceiling will become.  Allen clearly has more than enough natural athletic ability.  And he certainly seems as though he loves to play football and is willing to put in the grind.

My hope is that this will ultimately be the difference between Allen and his boom/bust predecessors. Anecdotally, it would seem guys with such natural talent are unwilling to put in the work required to improve because they'd always gotten by on talent alone. Perhaps Allen's history of being overlooked by the likes of Fresno State separates him from the Jake Locker's who were handed everything before entering the NFL. It's really an oddity that someone so obviously gifted had to go the Juco/Wyoming route.

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Hated the pick on draft day and remain skeptical that he will work out.

 

He has impressed me with his intangibles--competitiveness, leadership, will to win---and he's straight up a better athlete than I thought he was.

 

Still not doing NFL QB stuff on a high enough level consistently enough, but this was his first year and the QB position was screwed up pretty well by the coaching staff.

 

Next year will be critical for him.

 

 

 

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Absolutely has ...I recall the groans and the "WTF's?" when it was Allen rather than Rosen on draft night, and nobody has really any clue what the ceilings are on any of the QB's drafted this year, but for year one forced into the starting lineup due to injury and front office ineptitude?  Allen definitely showed me more than I expected, while leaving a lot of room to grow this off season

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8 hours ago, matter2003 said:

For me, I didnt want him. I believed all the hype with his terrible completion percentage, that he wasn't ready, etc etc...

 

I am a pretty big fan after watching his first year play out I have to admit. Accuracy is an issue but not as much as I think most people believe. Yes he makes some bad throws, but throwing the ball away, deeper throws than normal and dropped passes are a much bigger factor in his incompletions than his inaccuracy. in fact I was surprised to see his accuracy be so much better than i imagined...I was envisioning balls all over the place and terrible ball placement but I didnt see a lot of that. Were there some throws he would like back? Yeah sure there were...did he appear to be a 51.4% completion QB based on the accuracy of his throws? No way...

 

His athleticism is off the charts, dude is crazy fast for his size and is explosive when running. He hits top speed quickly and can really move...you can see this by how many times a defender thinks they have him and takes a bad angle only to have Allen blow by the guy without him even touching him.

 

I think shoring up the protection, and giving Allen some more weapons to work with will do a lot towards helping him improve his completion percentage.

 

Do i think he will ever be a 65% completion QB? No. He will probably be similar to Cam Newton hovering around upper 50s to low 60s. I think we can still win with that based on how often he throws deeper passes and improving the talent around him.

 

Needless to say I'm excited to see how things work out as he gets a full off season and all the work in minicamps and training camps as the undisputed #1 QB with continued help from Anderson and Barkley who he credits for a lot of his development in little nuances and understanding the game better.

 

So has your opinion changed on Josh Allen from the draft to now? 

 

 

Well considering I wanted Allen after Mayfield went #1 on draft night, I guess I should say...No my opinion hasn't changed because I was high on him on draft night and still am. Now, at this exact time last year, I wanted nothing to do with Allen.  It was his work with Palmer and how much he improved and blew me away during the draft process that had me drooling over this kids potential.  

 

I guess saying my opinion hasn't changed isnt totally accurate.  Because now my opinion has gone from excited and optimistic to completely sold that we got our guy and that he will be a top 5 QB over his career and has the potential to be the best QB in the NFL during his career.  

 

I dont say that as a "homer"...I am floored by his athleticism, arm strength, and leadership.  Add in his commitment to the game, his love for this team and Buffalo in general, his work ethic, his intelligence and his ability to be coached up and man this kids future is as bright as I can remember seeing.  

 

11 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

think I am in the minority  I only wanted Allen or Mayfield and was teetering on Mayfield.  Rosen was the one I absolutely wanted no part of.  Hopefully he continues to improve and the Bills land him help

 

Well I was right there with you.  I was championing Mayfield most the CFB season when many people would mock me and claim he won't even go in the first round when I kept saying he was the best QB in the draft.  And on draft night, Allen had worked his way up to my #2 spot and wanted nothing to do with Rosen.  

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17 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

liked the pick. glad he was the pick. he is the future under center imo.

 

saw this and thought it was cool.

 

#1

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats/0ap3000001006638/Next-Gen-Stats-Top-5-longest-throws-of-2018-by-air-distance

 

What was most impressive about that was how little effort it took for Allen to do that...he was escaping pocket and just flung that down field like it was nothing.  Imagine him next year flicking pass downfield to streaking WRs with speed from a clean pocket ?

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Haha I know exactly what you mean.  My daughter dislikes it intensely when I swear, so I try hard not to.  It wasn't just an F-bomb with me, it was more like an F-fusillade with a side order of several minutes inventive cussing.  I believe I instantaneously conducted a geneaological survey of Beane's ancestry for several generations.

I am picturing Clark Griswold after getting his Jelly of the Month bonus.

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20 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

But the question is did his cousin Eddie go kidnap Brandon Beane??

Lol. My brother and I once hatched a drunken scheme to kidnap Farve in that same manner. Our thoughts were that we could keep him at our local bar and he'd eventually develop stokholm syndrome and demand to be traded to the Bills.  

I cant decide if I should be happy or sad that we never tried to pull it off....

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Have to admit I was a Baker guy cause I think his attitude was sorely needed but man since preseason I’ve been on the Josh train you know when you see a kid who is different and he definitely is his skillset is just unbelievable  add to that he had the highest wonderlic score and we may just see the AFC title game in two years 

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2 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Absolutely.

 

He still has the issues with ball placement and decision making that worried me in college, but his leadership and ability to make a play has changed the way I see him.

 

I wanted Darnold and Mayfield and no part of either Josh.

 

Glad that I appear to be wrong as of now.

 

I think his accuracy issues are a bit overblown now compared to draft night. I also never knew he'd be a better runner than Tyrod.

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After having watched every college home game during Josh Allen's career, i was extremely disappointed on draft night that the Broncos decided to forego the most physically gifted QB I had ever seen since John Elway.  I didn't think that journeyman Case Keenum was the long term solution for the Broncos at QB.  I had tears in  my eyes knowing that the Broncos let the guy that had more heart than I had ever seen on the football field slip through their grasp and that I would not longer be able to watch him live on a weekly a basis.  My opinion has not changed one bit.

 

But...I get so many Bills fans that come talk to me on the ski slopes about the Bills while I am wearing my Blue and White #17 Bills jersey!  Now, I don't bother watching the Broncos games because I already know the outcome and tune into the Bills games so that I can continue to be inspired. 

 

Stats are for losers.  Give me Josh Allen over all the others in last year's draft!

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9 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I talked myself into it within a hour after the draft and was all in. I’ve always been able to do that as a fan. 

 

I also thought everyone coming in here like they knew how these qb’s would pan out one way or the other looked like fools and I told them as much. 

 

If people come on here and act like they “know” how a qb is gonna workout it usually says to me they hadn’t watched a ton of the nfl or drafts over the years. 

I could have posted this verbatim.

 

I watch some college ball.  I know only the tiniest fraction of what our scouts and guys like Beane know about football - so when they draft someone, I’m all in, pretty much immediately.

 

Obviously, if we have decision makers who repeatedly blow drafts, it invites more skepticism.  But Beane hasn’t done anything to diminish giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

So, I was excited about Allen from the start.  Now that I’ve seen Allen play, and exhort teammates in the sideline, and hurdle defenders - I’m over the moon.  We endured a QB search for the ages - since Clinton was President, and there was no such thing as a message board.

 

And we finally found the guy.  I have no doubt - we will be watching Josh Allen under center for many years. 

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Everybody wanted Rosen because they looked at his stat sheet and compared it to Allen's and automatically assumed he was the better QB. The problem with doing that is the talent between the two schools is disproportionate to each others. I think even a marginal QB would have put up big numbers at UCLA. Allen had nothing to work with at Wyoming yet he still made big big plays. I had no idea he was so athletic though, that I was unaware of. I knew he'd be good but he exceeded my expectations going into the season and I think he can be better than Baker Mayfield in the long run and I think his accuracy will continue to climb. In my heart of hearts I think we got the last good QB in the draft. I think Arizona and Baltimore missed the bus.

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8 hours ago, racketmaster said:

Watching his Wyoming games you could immediately see he was a special talent. His arm talent, size and athleticism jumps off the screen. You saw (especially his 2017 year) that he had little to no supporting cast. He played alot of “hero” ball and he loved to push the ball down the field even though he had limited weapons on the outside. 

 

You also had an almost unprecedented amount of Allen critics. There were major flags when analyzing his statistics and this caused much of the concerns. You also had those occasional throws that were totally off the mark because his mechanics got sloppy. Those throws opened the door for his critics to “show” how bad he would be as a pro. The negative noise was so loud I began to question my own opinion of Allen. Ultimately, I liked the pick and trusted the opinions of many long time scouts and coaches who liked Allen rather than the analytics guys. 

 

Its not that analytics aren’t useful or cannot be trusted, but there has to be some context. When watching the games, you could see he was better the previous year when he had a few decent players around him. His supporting cast was awful last year and the team relied on him to carry the offense. His WRs got so little separation and the throws he attempted to make were often in small windows 15+ yards downfield. There were a ton of NFL elite arm throws in his tape. And some were completed, others were dropped and others were just batted down by defenders blanketing the wr. You also saw him too often struggle with easier shorter throws that gave the Twitter critics more ammunition.

 

What I really liked was the kids competitive fire and the fact he never threw his teammates under the bus for not helping him in any way. No bad facial expressions or complaining. One play caught my eye and it was one of the first games I saw of Allen. It was the Iowa game and there was a play where there was a jailbreak and Allen ended up running around the pocket breaking and dragging Iowa defenders. It may have been a no gain play but it literally took 7-8 Iowa defenders to bring him down to the ground. He fought so hard and would not give up. It’s something in his character and it shows in his play (often good like extending plays to Ivory last week) and other times throwing the ball up to a Jets defender a few weeks ago when he was trying to do to much. He is competitive and has a hard time giving up on a play. 

 

I think most of his critics (speaking of Bills fans) had not watched a lot of his games if any. They heard the noise and were scared we made a mistake and would be made fun of by the media and other fans. But once fans got to see him in training camp and in preseason, you could see opinions starting to change. He started off pretty rough once the regular season began and he lost some of those fans who had come on board. Heck, I started to question whether he could process the game at the level it requires. But there were still flashes that gave you hope and when he came back from injury he has not looked back. With the stretch run he put together I think the Bills found their guy and most fans are on board with Allen going forward. I keep going back to this: It’s really hard to be a bust when you have elite arm strength, the ability to make incredible throws on the run, his running ability, competitiveness,intelligence, leadership/character, love of playing the game, and confidence measured with some degree of humility. He checks most every box and his flags were poor mechanics in short throws and inadequate mental processing. Hard work and experience can improve the negatives so that they are less obvious than they are now. Because he is so competitive and loves the game, I feel the hard work part will be a given. Sky’s the limit with this kid. 

 

Great post.  That he doesn't throw his teammates under the bus, even for a moment in the heat of a game, is all you need to see about his character. 

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I intentionally did not study the QB class although I knew the Bills would take one.  I saw no point to having a favorite and then the Bills either having no chance at him or, worse yet, having a chance and taking someone different.  So, I kind of understand where the Rosen people are coming from.  The Josh is raw talk was like deja vu with "EJ is like a ball of clay."  The NFL has no patience for QB sculpture and I am not sure there was/is the right coaching in place to develop him, so I was somewhat skeptical.   Watching him play, seeing how he carried the offense, being shocked by how his size and athleticism has stood out against NFL defenders, feeling that he has improved in obvious and quantifiable ways, I think the Rosenites need to give it up.  He's our guy.

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1 hour ago, Luka said:

 

I think his accuracy issues are a bit overblown now compared to draft night. I also never knew he'd be a better runner than Tyrod.

He still has issues with the easy throws, mainly the swing passes and screens.

 

Plus he passes those throws up a little too much.

 

Hopefully he works tirelessly on that and then next year he uses the opportunities to get those easy completions.

 

Hell, Tom Brady has lived off the RB completion for years now.

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23 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Everybody wanted Rosen because they looked at his stat sheet and compared it to Allen's and automatically assumed he was the better QB. The problem with doing that is the talent between the two schools is disproportionate to each others. I think even a marginal QB would have put up big numbers at UCLA. Allen had nothing to work with at Wyoming yet he still made big big plays. I had no idea he was so athletic though, that I was unaware of. I knew he'd be good but he exceeded my expectations going into the season and I think he can be better than Baker Mayfield in the long run and I think his accuracy will continue to climb. In my heart of hearts I think we got the last good QB in the draft. I think Arizona and Baltimore missed the bus.

 

 

I was a Rosen guy admittedly. And admittedly I have been a bit disappointed this year. I’m also really excited about Allen. He is a fun player to watch behind center...that said the book isn’t written on either. There is reason to be cautiously optimistic about Allen. And cautiously pessimistic about Rosen. 

 

What i I dislike about this is poo pooing analytics or stats. What people liked about Rosen was they he was a more “precise passer” (seems to be a buzz word around these parts. That his college career in most categories gave him a chance at a higher success rate than Allen. No matter how their careers pan out that still true. If Allen turns into Favre and Rosen into Edwards, that doesn’t change the probability coming out of college. 

 

Just because a FO swam against the current once, doesn’t mean it is good practice. And just because you swim perpendicular to shore in a rip tide, and still drowned, doesn’t mean it’s a flawed practice.

 

no matter what happens a bunch of us will be right and a bunch of us wrong. Still, nobody knows and people need to be less polarizing about it. 

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I knew he was a good athlete and could run, what I didn’t think was that his running would be so efficient. We knew he was inaccurate and he certainly way. What I didn’t expect was his accuracy to drop 6%. His ability to throw on the run was impressive. His command of the huddle and presence wasn’t expected. He outperformed my expectations, but he has a long way to go. 

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3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

My hope is that this will ultimately be the difference between Allen and his boom/bust predecessors. Anecdotally, it would seem guys with such natural talent are unwilling to put in the work required to improve because they'd always gotten by on talent alone. Perhaps Allen's history of being overlooked by the likes of Fresno State separates him from the Jake Locker's who were handed everything before entering the NFL. It's really an oddity that someone so obviously gifted had to go the Juco/Wyoming route.

 

This times 100! 

 

I suspect that if Allen becomes an elite QB in the NFL this will be the reason.  His history, given his obvious talent, is unprecedented.  You know who this reminds me of?  A certain RB who was very annoyed that he wasn't a 1st round pick.  I think deep down Allen has a lot of the same motivating factors that helped Thurman become one of the greatest RB's in NFL history. 

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