Orlovsky: Bills aren't as talented offensively as we thought

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whenever I think about this topic, I always come back to Dorsey. 

 

Easy completions come from route design, play calling, and execution.   A properly designed play called at the right time executed properly gets SOMEONE open for an easy toss and catch.   That's what seems to be missing in the Bills' passing game.  

 

Dorsey has the wrong play designs for the opponent, or he doesn't call them at the right time.  And if he has the right play at the right time, then he hasn't trained his quarterback and receivers to execute them.   

 

It's not about talent.  Davis is more than talented enough to be a competent #2, and McKenzie is talented enough to run routes like Beasley.  If they're running the routes wrong, well, what are coaches for?   

 

I think it's Dorsey.  

I think Dorsey gets a bad rap here, especially in comparison to DaBoll who for some reason is now revered around here.  Dorsey has the same numbers with a better record (10-3) yet has had less to work with - Dorsey doesn't have a Beas or Sanders.

 

What I think has hindered the progression of the offense this season is the lack of the swing and screen pass.  I believe this was the targeted year over year improvement.  They tried early to get the WA guy McKissic (?).  And after that went blew up, drafted Cook and then traded for Hines.   The plan seemed to be increased YAC through swing passes and screens - and it has not worked yet.

[CEN-CAL17]

3 hours ago, BananaB said:

We lost 80 plus catches from him, our 2 and 3 combined have not surpassed 80 after 13 games. Hard to believe Beas couldn’t help us, even if he’s slowing down. Still smarter and knows how to find the soft spot in the D. 

I somewhat agree with this…. Beasley is missed, well production from last year anyways.  I will be surprised if Davis tops 60 receptions in 17 games.

[Chaos]

The QBs are the only thing that matter. When Allens, Mahomes or Burrow go off, the teams win.  When they don't go off all three teams are .500 ball clubs. 

In 2022 Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes each have 6 games with Passer ratings above 100. Joe Burrows has 7 games above 100.  The combined record for these 19 games is 19 wins zero losses.  The combined record for the 20 combined games with passer ratings below 100:  10 wins 10 losses. 

 

It would seem the strategy is to figure out what it takes to help the QBs get above a 100 passer rating. To my eyes the Chiefs and Bengals think the key is making the online and skill positions as strong as they can.  And the Bills strategy is to pray that Josh Allen is superman each Sunday. And the Bills strategy may yet work. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

Why do we have so many Beasley is the answer posts.

 

It was clear that he had lost a crucial step last year, he was often injured, and he could not stick with Tampa after he left.

 

He is retired now, so... time to move on folks.

 

 

 

Beasley is a white slot receiver who couldn’t make it work with Tom Brady, he is clearly not likely to have much in the tank. If the Bills want to kick the tires and get him on the PS, fine I guess it doesn’t hurt but it’s at best a long shot.

 

If the Bills are hoping to get some WR help you are better off waiting for Crowder to attempt to come off IR

[716to540]

Ralph is cheap???

[RichRiderBills]

10 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Beasley is a white slot receiver who couldn’t make it work with Tom Brady, he is clearly not likely to have much in the tank. If the Bills want to kick the tires and get him on the PS, fine I guess it doesn’t hurt but it’s at best a long shot.

 

If the Bills are hoping to get some WR help you are better off waiting for Crowder to attempt to come off IR

 

The big deal when Brady got to the bucs is the easy outlet passes to Edelmen types were not in the Arians offense. He runs a downfield game with a lot fewer dump offs and west coasty check downs. Since gronk left, the TE is an afterthought as well. 

 

I tip my hat that beezer might be done. But I disagree about his lack of value to Buff in '21. He had 82 catches and was key in several games. Sure, he got hurt...maybe he just needs to get healthy. Why is this ok logic for an OBJ but not a Beezer? There was a stretch when folks were saying Von was never going to be the same again either.

 

Also disagree that we should not at least kick the tires on the guy. 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by RichRiderBills

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

The part I don't get is that basically all the way up to the bye week, they looked almost unstoppable offensively.  Did teams figure us out? Did we change something?  Is it just poor execution?  It's almost a night and day difference it seems at times.

It is that time of the year where the pretenders separate from the contenders.   The good teams will start bubbling up and when you play them it will be tough games.  There is no "gimme" game in the NFL especially at this time of the season.   We have played the Patriots, Jets and will play Miami, all vying for the top spot in AFC East and we are 2-0 against them.  There are no easy games in the NFL.   This team has been out of sync with all the injuries and despite that are a strong 10-3.  Enjoy the ride folks.  I am sure the Coaching staff and the players will figure out and take the steps to correct.  

 

Josh will not be throwing for 350 yards in the type of Buffalo weather we had on Sunday.  It appears that Mike White played better, but the Jets were in catch up mode all day and hence abandoned their run game (and when they ran, they fumbled the ball at a critical time). 

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think Dorsey gets a bad rap here, especially in comparison to DaBoll who for some reason is now revered around here.  Dorsey has the same numbers with a better record (10-3) yet has had less to work with - Dorsey doesn't have a Beas or Sanders.

 

What I think has hindered the progression of the offense this season is the lack of the swing and screen pass.  I believe this was the targeted year over year improvement.  They tried early to get the WA guy McKissic (?).  And after that went blew up, drafted Cook and then traded for Hines.   The plan seemed to be increased YAC through swing passes and screens - and it has not worked yet.

I'm not a Daboll booster.  

 

You may or may not be right about the swing pass and screen pass.   All I know is there are some ways to attack defenses the Bills see that are better than the things they've been doing.   Maybe the defenses they face are good at moving away from their tendencies, or maybe Dorsey isn't very good at getting away from his tendencies.  I don't know what needs to be done, but the offense should be more effective with the talent they have.  

[Niagara Dude]

11 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

I don't like admitting it, but he makes fair points.  We are in 3rd and long far too often.  The O-line is not doing a great job and much of our offense is Josh creating on the fly, not executing the plays as designed because he either doesn't have time, or isn't finding an open receiver.

 

Outside of Josh and Diggs who has any confidence in anyone else in this offense?  

 

I'd say Motor, but he needs the blocking to be there and for the most part, it's not.

 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=35237773

There is a huge reason why Sean and Josh are interested in OJB,  outside of Diggs no one consistent enough

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not a Daboll booster.  

 

You may or may not be right about the swing pass and screen pass.   All I know is there are some ways to attack defenses the Bills see that are better than the things they've been doing.   Maybe the defenses they face are good at moving away from their tendencies, or maybe Dorsey isn't very good at getting away from his tendencies.  I don't know what needs to be done, but the offense should be more effective with the talent they have.  

 

There was a play on our first TD drive I think. Something like 2nd and 5 where we just had Davis run underneath, catch an easy pass and run for the 1st down. It stuck out to me because it was such an easy completion for a free 1st down and I feel like we never see those in our offense. It feels like our offense requires the WR to just beat their man and if they don't the play fails.

[CincyBillsFan]

28 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It appears that Mike White played better, but the Jets were in catch up mode all day and hence abandoned their run game (and when they ran, they fumbled the ball at a critical time). 

Allen played much better then White yesterday.  Throwing for a few more yards against a Frazier D playing prevent protecting a two score lead is no big deal. Allen's 2 TD drives at the end of the half and in response to the Jets 3rd quarter TD drive were critical to winning the game.  When they were needed Allen made the big plays.

 

 

[Billz4ever]

19 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

There is a huge reason why Sean and Josh are interested in OJB,  outside of Diggs no one consistent enough

I can see why they would, but if he's not even going to be ready this season, it's not going to help us now.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

There was a play on our first TD drive I think. Something like 2nd and 5 where we just had Davis run underneath, catch an easy pass and run for the 1st down. It stuck out to me because it was such an easy completion for a free 1st down and I feel like we never see those in our offense. It feels like our offense requires the WR to just beat their man and if they don't the play fails.

Right.  Can't do that every play, but good teams make it easy for themselves sometimes. 

[Joe Ferguson]

 

[SoTier]

28 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

 

 

In an NFL without a salary cap or if all they were interested in was filling Highmark Stadium and making the playoffs, this would be easy to do, but the Bills play in an NFL with a salary cap, and they aspire to not simply make the Super Bowl but win it   They need a defense good enough to stop offenses like the Chiefs, Bengals or Eagles, and the Bills have invested a lot assets to get what they hope is a good enough defense.  Despite the losses of Hyde and Miller for the season, other injured defensive players have returned or are getting healthy, and the Bills defense appears to be still improving.

 

I'm willing to sacrifice some offensive power for a defense that can take the Bills to a Lombardi.  I'm a believer in the old adage, "defense wins championships".

[Big Blitz]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

I GUARANTEE if you look at the numbers this offense is more productive right now then it was up to this point last year.  It doesn’t mean all our problems are solved it just means there are over reactions to the wrong concerns some are having.   

 

 

Thanks Aaron.  

[Locomark]

This is 100% because Gabe Davis is overrated. He isn’t usually open. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

The QBs are the only thing that matter. When Allens, Mahomes or Burrow go off, the teams win.  When they don't go off all three teams are .500 ball clubs. 

In 2022 Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes each have 6 games with Passer ratings above 100. Joe Burrows has 7 games above 100.  The combined record for these 19 games is 19 wins zero losses.  The combined record for the 20 combined games with passer ratings below 100:  10 wins 10 losses. 

 

It would seem the strategy is to figure out what it takes to help the QBs get above a 100 passer rating. To my eyes the Chiefs and Bengals think the key is making the online and skill positions as strong as they can.  And the Bills strategy is to pray that Josh Allen is superman each Sunday. And the Bills strategy may yet work. 

We have more invested on defense than the chiefs…we will see if it pays off or not. A good defense can help a qb out as much as skill position players. 

[Locomark]

Is it talent or player/ play usage? No slants, no crossing routes, multiple years of not being able to complete basic screen, bubble screens seemed to have stopped, lack of wheel routes, no trick plays, etc. 

[purple haze]

16 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Every legit contender:

 

 

Sanders/Hurts 

CMC

Zeke/Pollard 

Dalvin Cook 

 

Mixon/Perine

Ekeler 

Pacheko/McKinnon

 

 

 

Devin Singletary/James Cook

 

 

 

Yea.  It’s Running Back.  

Nah.  It’s offensive line.  Too inconsistent.  It’s also playcalling.  Motor runs well but 8 or 9 carries won’t get it.  Dorsey forgets about the running game too often.

[corta765]

13 hours ago, TH3 said:

As soon as the Bills get these straightened out….they can string some wins together and make a run to get into the playoffs

 

I am not disappointed in the least with the team. My point was why people are seemingly not satisfied with a 10-3 team that is currently the 1 seed.

 

This team reminds me of the 2019 team with a higher offensive ceiling and better QB play. The defense is rock stout and the offense can do a lot of things and when on point they can truly dominant.

[foreboding]

23 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think more than anything, it's Allen being told to stop putting the ball in harms way so often and he hasn't found the happy medium between taking chances and being overly aggressive.  Now he is being overly conservative.

Yeah, but...when davis and lil dirty miss crucial catches every single game, they stymie drives, games and then the cofidence to throw those ball is also diminsihed. That chargers game vs phins was a good example of how great it is to have TWO dependable recievers and a little bad ass for an RB.

[Bob in STL]

The offense is still one of the best in the NFL as evidenced by its 6th in scoring ranking, but it does appear to be slipping in production as the season progresses. 

 

There is a lack of big play talent after Allen and Diggs.   I think the OL is a very mediocre group and the source of many problems.  A stronger line would improve the running game and give Allen more time to find a receiver.  Much of the Bill's success on offense comes from Allen improvising and making plays.

 

The WR group is average, mostly because Davis has not progressed as a #2, and there is no effective replacement for Beasley in the slot.   Knox seems to be an afterthought most games.   The backup TEs are not good, and we get little production from the running backs with the exception of Motor (some games). 

 

How much of this regression is related to the Rookie OC Dorsey and his planning?  I don't know but certainly some. 

 

Still, this offense is very good and with Allen at the helm it can be great on any given week.  

 

Right now, I would say that the defense is the stronger unit and has more depth to deal with injuries.  

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Bob in STL

[stlbills13]

The running backs need to get better although I don't think they're that bad. There needs to be a better 2nd/3rd wide receiver. The offensive line is really struggling which also takes Knox away as an option sometimes. But I still think the play calling is the biggest factor. 

 

Run the ball more. 3 yard runs aren't exciting or flashy but it at least keeps defenses honest and gets you more manageable 3rd downs. Plus both Singletary and Cook have shown flashes.

 

Davis seems to only be used as a deep threat and then there is the one time a game where he runs a comeback route and gains 18 yards. If he is going to strictly be a deep threat then you need to pull the safeties in with the run game and with short passes over the middle.

 

Diggs is fine. Great actually. But you could scheme him open in different ways too. 

 

I just think we've become too predictable

[WideNine]

14 hours ago, WideNine said:

Why do we have so many Beasley is the answer posts.

 

It was clear that he had lost a crucial step last year, he was often injured, and he could not stick with Tampa after he left.

 

He is retired now, so... time to move on folks.

 

 

 

 

...and now I read on Pro Football Talk the Bills are kicking the tires on ol' Cole.

 

They must be really desperate at the slot position and McKenzie's mental lapses must have worn thin on them.

 

Good luck with that and good luck to Cole. Other than his inability to steer clear of social media controversy, the guy was a tough SOB.

 

If he can pass physicals, he is a better option than a raw rookie or a mistake prone Isaiah.

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

...and now I read on Pro Football Talk the Bills are kicking the tires on ol' Cole.

 

They must be really desperate at the slot position and McKenzie's mental lapses must have worn thin on them.

 

Good luck with that and good luck to Cole. Other than his inability to steer clear of social media controversy, the guy was a tough SOB.

 

If he can pass physicals, he is a better option than a raw rookie or a mistake prone Isaiah.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree 

[StHustle]

9 hours ago, Locomark said:

This is 100% because Gabe Davis is overrated. He isn’t usually open. 

Crazy how some fans refuse to consider that fact he’s playing on a bum ankle. He actually gets open a lot when you consider that fact. When healthy he is a top caliber #2 and has proven that.

[PrimeTime101]

This just changed a bit with Brown and Beasley back. These 2 have one or 2 more years left in them. and they are going into the stretch pretty healthy

[appoo]

Don’t think Orlovsky is wrong, but the real question is - are the bills talented enough on offense to win a SB? 10-3 against this schedule suggests yes. 
 

There isn’t an easy fix to this either. Dion Dawkins is an above average LT rather than top 10, Morse is really good, everyone else on the line is poor to average. They’re barely good enough against decent DLines to protect Josh, and open some holes.

I’m still open to Davis being legit though, and thinking McKenzie is good as well along with Knox.  I think there’s some issues with game planning on offense where somehow these dudes are being limited. It also might just come down to Dorsey no longer trusting his OLine and thus dampening the game plan 

 

But I don’t know that you can remake an entire OLine in a single off-season when you’re gonna be drafting towards the end of the first, and you have a huge amount of money going to like 8-10 players, including a 40M QB

Edited December 13, 2022 by appoo

[Billz4ever]

52 minutes ago, appoo said:

Don’t think Orlovsky is wrong, but the real question is - are the bills talented enough on offense to win a SB? 10-3 against this schedule suggests yes. 
 

There isn’t an easy fix to this either. Dion Dawkins is an above average LT rather than top 10, Morse is really good, everyone else on the line is poor to average. They’re barely good enough against decent DLines to protect Josh, and open some holes.

I’m still open to Davis being legit though, and thinking McKenzie is good as well along with Knox.  I think there’s some issues with game planning on offense where somehow these dudes are being limited. It also might just come down to Dorsey no longer trusting his OLine and thus dampening the game plan 

 

But I don’t know that you can remake an entire OLine in a single off-season when you’re gonna be drafting towards the end of the first, and you have a huge amount of money going to like 8-10 players, including a 40M QB

The good news is most starting O lineman in this league (and some pretty good ones too) weren't taken in the first round.  There's talent to be had in the 2nd round and later, you just need to have the scouting to find it and some luck on your side too.

 

WR on the other hand, you're going to find more the elite-type talent at the top. Not to say you can't find steals later because you most certainly can, but elite receivers are more of a premium. 

 

We need both either way. We need to protect Josh and give him legit weapons to throw to besides Diggs.

[Chaos]

16 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

We have more invested on defense than the chiefs…we will see if it pays off or not. A good defense can help a qb out as much as skill position players. 

Not really any evidence of that in recent years in terms of wins and losses. Offense wins regular season games. Offense wins Championships. Offense wins Super Bowls.  Thats the rule.  There are a small handful of exceptions in this century to prove the rule. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 12/12/2022 at 10:04 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

I am definitely on the train that we need more pass catchers.  I thought Davis and McKenzie would fill in fine.  Davis finally getting the #2 position and thought McKenzie would give us the YAC element from the slot.

 

Both have been disappointments.  #2 needs to be upgraded but we can't do that this year..  McKenzie needs to sit.  I can't wait for Crowder to come back or move Shakir to full time slot.  I have no faith in McKenzie and he scares me that he's going to have a ball bounce off his pads, go in the air and it becomes a pick 6.

 

Can't sit mckenzie imo.  He's one of our few red zone weapons whos actually done anything.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 12/12/2022 at 10:59 AM, Nihilarian said:

My take is something is off with Josh Allen, his elbow, his arm...something. AND, he was pressing at times while attempting to do far to much on his own. Too many turnovers in those losses!

 

The offense has settled into a "lets help Josh" mentality.  24 rush attempts vs 27 pass attempts. 

 

Josh final game stats, 16 of 27 for 147, 1 TD is what we were used to seeing in the first quarter in the early games this season. 

 

Yet, Josh is still sorta playing hero as he was the leading rusher, 10 for 47, 1 TD.

Although, Singletary was 8 for 39, a 4.9 AVG. 

 

Time of Possession, Jets 34:25 vs Bills 25:35. 2 turnovers were the difference. Fugly win, but a win nonetheless. 

 

Opposing teams have figured out how to defend the Bills offense (aside for Diggs, who is unmatched) This falls on the rookie OC, who is learning as he goes. Look how long it took Daboll to get that offense clicking like he did at the end of last season.

Anyone else recall how bad the Buffalo offense looked against the Jaguars in 2021?

 

That Buffalo defense played "lights out" and really carried this game IMO.

 

Current Stats, Buffalo offense, #4 in points scored, #2 in yards. Buffalo defense, #2 in points allowed, #9 in yards allowed. Getting healthy finally too. 

 

Let's hope Dorsey is saving something for the playoffs or perhaps for this Miami game.

Would the Bills rather have a 100% Von Miller right now

 

Or

 

Davante Adams with no Kaiir Elam or James Cook? (If you need to throw in Bernard, Shakir, Araiza).

 

 

Going forward I would expect more teams to follow the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals model. Get the QB, and then do everything you can to get two #1’s. 
 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 12/12/2022 at 10:53 AM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Singletary is averaging 4.4 ypc. 

 

Cook is averaging 5.1 ypc. 

 

Allen is averaging 6.3 ypc. 

 

Singletary runs for 16-yards and sees 7 carries the rest of the day. 

 

The Bills don't make any effort to stay with a semblance of a run game for all 4-quarters despite being up most of the game. 

Daboll didn’t either. There must be a reason. Bills pass to set up the run because their run blocking is just not that good. Morse is our best lineman by far. 

[Victory Formation]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

Can't sit mckenzie imo.  He's one of our few red zone weapons whos actually done anything.  

He’s had way too many drops, I doubt he’ll be back next year.

 

Buffalo needs to draft a WR in RD1. Imagine if we find Diggs alter ego.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

He’s had way too many drops, I doubt he’ll be back next year.

 

Buffalo needs to draft a WR in RD1. Imagine if we find Diggs alter ego.

 

Who cares about next year right now though?  He's been one of the consistent weapons in the red zone this year - therefore i don't bench him. 

[Pete]

Opposing defenses keep two Safeties deep, and spy Josh- that’s been taking away the big plays up top, and stopping some big Josh runs.

dorsey needs to figure how to beat that.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 12/13/2022 at 6:29 PM, Chaos said:

Not really any evidence of that in recent years in terms of wins and losses. Offense wins regular season games. Offense wins Championships. Offense wins Super Bowls.  Thats the rule.  There are a small handful of exceptions in this century to prove the rule. 

Complete teams have been winning the superbowl for years now so I’m not sure what you mean.  Heck the year the chiefs won it they were just outside the top 10 in points against and they couldn’t get it done any other year.  

points against rankings of recent Super Bowl winners:

ravens defense in 2013 - 12th
Seahawks defense 2014 - 1st
pats defense in 2015 - 10th
broncos defense in 2016 - 4th

pats defense in 2017 - 5th

eagles defense in 2018 - 12th

pats defense in 2019 - 8th 

chiefs defense in 2020 - 11th

bucs defense in 2021  - 8th

Rams defense in 2022 - 15th

There hasn’t been a superbowl winner in the bottom half of the league in points against since the New York giants in the 2012/2013 season and even their defense was great in the playoffs. 
 

im not trying to say you need to go all defense lol but you need a good mix of offensive and defensive talent 
 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Chaos]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Complete teams have been winning the superbowl for years now so I’m not sure what you mean.  Heck the year the chiefs won it they were just outside the top 10 in points against and they couldn’t get it done any other year.  

points against rankings of recent Super Bowl winners:

ravens defense in 2013 - 12th Total fluke, middling defense, and Flacco went nuts, having one of the greatest playoff run either 
Seahawks defense 2014 - 1st (Wilson 7th, 100+)
pats defense in 2015 - 10th 5th QB passer Rating (97.4)
broncos defense in 2016 - 4th QB Passer Rating - rank not measured due to injuries, but Manning was not good during the regular season (exception 2)

pats defense in 2017 - 5th QB passer Rating 3rd (100+)

eagles defense in 2018 - 12th QB passer Rating  7th  (100+) (wentz before injury)

pats defense in 2019 - 8th  Brady (16th 88 Rating) - Exception 1 

chiefs defense in 2020 - 11th QB passer Rating  7th  (100+)

bucs defense in 2021  - 8th  QB passer Rating 8th  (100+)

Rams defense in 2022 - 15th QB QB passer Rating  7th (100+)

There hasn’t been a superbowl winner in the bottom half of the league in net points since the New York giants in the 2012/2013 season and even their defense was great in the playoffs. 
 

im not trying to say you need to go all defense lol but you need a good mix of offensive and defensive talent 
 

 

So really only a couple of years wther the defenses made a significant difference.  Mostly its the QB's and offense. 

[Solomon Grundy]

From what I've been reading, Saffold and Spencer Brown strengths are run blocking. If this is the case, why don't the Bills run the ball more towards their side?