Do you see the Josh Allen era Bills as having a "window"?

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, Success said:

Just curious what others think - because I see that all the time on opposing fans message boards, and I don't relate to it.

 

I think the window will be WIDE open as long as JA is QB, and Beane is GM.  I don't need any more proof from either. JA is elite, and Beane seems like a wizard w/ the cap, who knows how to build an A1 team for today, and also keep an eye on building a model for success that's sustainable.  We'll lose players like all great teams do, but he is a very good drafter, finds gems in FA, and has a real vision for keeping this team in contention.

 

I think we'll be knocking on the door for a title every year for at least a decade.  I tend to lean homer, but I also think this is objective based on how good these guys are at their jobs.

 

What say you?

 

 

 If you have a very good team with a highly paid QBs you run into the situation where you can’t keep everyone so you need to constantly retool the team.

 

with many teams they take a step back some years because they lost a bunch of young players to free agency.

 

sometimes it’s about the ap where you stocked a team fora run using money in future years where the team needs to eat dead capspace and rebuild the team.

[SirAndrew]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think we can be optimistic about the future without being overconfident. There’s always a window and it’s never certain when it will close.

 

Look at the Colts. That looked like it would be a decade-long run, with great weapons, a great defense, and Andrew Luck. Then he retired.

 

Look at the Texans. I would have imagined they’d win at least one SB with a 24 year old Deshaun plus Deandre Hopkins.

 

Look at Seattle. Unbeatable defense with a young superstar QB, great fan base and front office… unbelievable WR tandem… then the window closed fast.

 

Being overconfident or promising yourself 10 years of success is dangerous. That’s why every single year counts these next few.

Great examples, but Josh is better than all of those guys. I’m not usually such a homer, but Allen carry’s his team in a special way. Watson derailed his career, while no signs point to Josh being a fool. Luck was talented, but injury prone, not all in on football, and not as gifted as Allen. Wilson was a special talent, but had a phenomenal team around him. The Hawks weren’t a Super Bowl contender once the team declined. Allen compares more to Manning imo. The Colts and Broncos were always contenders with him on the field, and Manning was the main reason. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I wouldn't say we have a definitive "window" but we definitely have an advantage this year while Josh is still only at a 16mm cap hit. 

 

Going forward will depend on how Josh ages and how Beane drafts/builds the team. Josh won't be able to sustain this playstyle long term. I do think he'll be able to adapt and be a top 3 QB using just his arm, but it would be an adjustment to not use his legs as much. Beane has proven to be a very capable GM so i'm not worried on that aspect. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

I gotta say I think, unlike Brady and Rodgers, Josh’s career will max out at 15 years based on the way he plays. He takes a beating and as soon as he loses his ability to get away from blitzers, he will be significantly lesser than what he is. We need to win one in the next four or five years. That’s gonna be Josh’s prime and our best shot

I highly disagree. Allen without his legs is still a top 10 QB. As long as he can move in the pocket he’ll be alright. Once his speed goes, he’ll study guys like Brees, Manning, Brady who are human statues, but know how to manipulate the pocket. I see him becoming more & more like Big Ben as he gets older and less like Cam Newton. Just my opinion. He’ll still be a ***** to bring down at any point in his career. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Chicken Boo]

The Bills will always be competitive with Allen, McDermott and Beane, BUT that doesn’t come without its limitations.  There is a window of oppprtunity and the Bills are in it for this current squad.  

 

There will be staff and roster turnover to deal with in the coming years that will present its own set of challenges.

 

Both the Bills and Chiefs seem to be in excellent positions with the QB/Coach/GM trio and while I don't believe that Patriots-like longevity is realistic, we're talking about 2 of the very best talents at QB that this league has ever seen, so I guess we'll see.

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Success said:

Just curious what others think - because I see that all the time on opposing fans message boards, and I don't relate to it.

 

I think the window will be WIDE open as long as JA is QB, and Beane is GM.  I don't need any more proof from either. JA is elite, and Beane seems like a wizard w/ the cap, who knows how to build an A1 team for today, and also keep an eye on building a model for success that's sustainable.  We'll lose players like all great teams do, but he is a very good drafter, finds gems in FA, and has a real vision for keeping this team in contention.

 

I think we'll be knocking on the door for a title every year for at least a decade.  I tend to lean homer, but I also think this is objective based on how good these guys are at their jobs.

 

What say you?

 

they will always be in the window if Josh is healthy but those odds ebb and wane between say 5% and 20% any given year based on what chips are on the table. 

[klos63]

Multiple windows, a different one will probably open next season with many veterans with contracts ending or maybe too expensive. Might see 2 new safeties and linebacker.

[US Egg]

JK12 played a decade at a high level. Expect JA17 to do so to another 10 years.

 

McBeane has to keep ‘D’ up to snuff. Having those big three together is crucial.

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by I am the egg man

[Dablitzkrieg]

Completely 👍 agree

[Billznut]

Josh is currently 26. I expect he will be a top 3 qb throughout his career. I believe his running will slow down appreciably from age 30-34 or so. Defenses will then play him differently. Buffalo will need a running game at that point. I also believe with contracts so crazy now that Josh will make so much money that he won’t feel the need to play much past his mid thirties. Also factor in him getting married, having kids and his desire to not have injuries/concussions affect his family life I believe he will retire sooner than we all want him to. Still I expect Josh to play for at least 8-9 more seasons.  So I’d say the window is now through 2031 or so. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Billznut

[transplantbillsfan]

Josh as our QB.

 

That's our window.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think we can be optimistic about the future without being overconfident. There’s always a window and it’s never certain when it will close.

 

Look at the Colts. That looked like it would be a decade-long run, with great weapons, a great defense, and Andrew Luck. Then he retired.

 

Look at the Texans. I would have imagined they’d win at least one SB with a 24 year old Deshaun plus Deandre Hopkins.

 

Look at Seattle. Unbeatable defense with a young superstar QB, great fan base and front office… unbelievable WR tandem… then the window closed fast.

 

Being overconfident or promising yourself 10 years of success is dangerous. That’s why every single year counts these next few.

There was zero point zero chance Texans were ever going to win a SB. 

Come on

[WyoAZBillfan]

According to the renderings there are a ton of windows!!! Go Bills!!

[AlfaBill]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think we can be optimistic about the future without being overconfident. There’s always a window and it’s never certain when it will close.

 

Look at the Colts. That looked like it would be a decade-long run, with great weapons, a great defense, and Andrew Luck. Then he retired.

 

Look at the Texans. I would have imagined they’d win at least one SB with a 24 year old Deshaun plus Deandre Hopkins.

 

Look at Seattle. Unbeatable defense with a young superstar QB, great fan base and front office… unbelievable WR tandem… then the window closed fast.

 

Being overconfident or promising yourself 10 years of success is dangerous. That’s why every single year counts these next few.

Difference being lousy front offices and/or a QB who unexpectedly retires. 

19 minutes ago, Billznut said:

Josh is currently 26. I expect he will be a top 3 qb throughout his career. I believe his running will slow down appreciably from age 30-34 or so. Defenses will then play him differently. Buffalo will need a running game at that point. I also believe with contracts so crazy now that Josh will make so much money that he won’t feel the need to play much past his mid thirties. Also factor in him getting married, having kids and his desire to not have injuries/concussions affect his family life I believe he will retire sooner than we all want him to. Still I expect Josh to play for at least 8-9 more seasons.  So I’d say the window is now through 2031 or so. 

Josh lives the game. No way he retires in his prime barring significant injuries 

[Process]

No.

 

I will say this may be the best team we have in a little while with tough decisions coming up on Gabe, Edmunds, Oliver, Poyer, Hyde etc.

 

That plus the fact that this is the weakest the league has been in a long time, with very few truly good teams, plus a clear path to the 1 seed for the Bills..... this is the year to get it done. 

 

But the Bills will be Superbowl contenders as long as Allen is our QB.

[Freddie's Dead]

I do, and it's open for the next 15-20 years.

[LABILLBACKER]

I think there will be 2 distinct windows. The 1st will be now thru the next 3-4 years where we rely on our offensive stars and a youthful JA to get that 1st championship.  The 2nd window will probably involve a less mobile 32-35 year old Josh who will have new weapons but will rely more on a dynamic defense to get that 2nd championship. 

[Utah John]

Back in the day, there were jugglers on the Ed Sullivan show (yeah I'm old) who would get plates spinning on the top of sticks -- the sticks were maybe five feet long, standing vertically on the stage, and the plates were regular dinner plates.  The plate and stick would stand upright if the plate was kept spinning.  The juggler would get six or eight or ten plates spinning all at once, and of course the trick was to keep them all going fast enough not to fall over.

 

Beane is juggling plates.  Some of his plates will break earlier than expected, and others will stop spinning for the Bills and move somewhere else for more money.  Beane is trying to get new plates ready to spin before too many old ones stop.  But it's really hard.  He needs to get nearly all his personnel decisions right, to keep enough cash on hand and plenty of draft picks in the bank, guessing which players will need to be replaced and when, and not pissing off the guys who he thinks he's going to have to replace (Poyer and Hyde, I'm afraid, are on that list, and so might be White also if he can't get all the way back from his injured knee.)

 

No team keeps the plates spinning forever.  Carolina had a big strong mobile QB with a rocket arm, also, and they had a whole cupboard full of plates fall to the ground at the same time.  Beane lived through that and doesn't want to go there again, and except for Von Miller he hasn't changed his process.  Get A or A- guys all across the board, not A+ guys except for Allen and Diggs because A+ guys cost too much.  Get them believing in each other.  Get great coaches.  Win a lot and be attractive to FAs who want to get a ring.  When a key player is injured or leaves, the team concept absorbs that hit like a sponge and rebounds nearly back into shape.  Keeping THAT going is a much better plan than having five or six A+ players and a bunch of B- and C guys, who create weaknesses.  And then when one of those A+ guys goes down or goes away, the hole can't be addressed by the team working together, because the other players on the roster aren't nearly as good.

 

Josh's contract is going to cost a lot more in the near future, and it's going to be very hard to retain a dozen or more A players at the same time.  Beane is a master juggler but at some point too many plates will stop spinning at the same time.  So yes, definitely, there is a window, and we're either in the middle of it or maybe slightly already getting closer to the edge.  Last year was the year to win it all, and then this year and maybe next year to become a historically great dynasty.  Damned 13 seconds.  

[GunnerBill]

The Bills will be competitive while Josh is the QB and playing at this level. So one imagines at least another 10 years and then let's see how the body holds up from there. 

 

That said within that there will be times when the window is more open than others. That is because you have to manage the cap and because you have to manage the transition of guys around Josh. We have already seen Beasley and Jerry Hughes age out last year. The reality is Mitch Morse, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer will be gone within the next two and what those five have in common is they were not Bills draft picks. It is that ability to find those proven vets that gets trickier. And some of the guys brought in up front this last offseason - DeQuan Jones and Von Miller on defense, Roger Saffold on offense - are really win now pieces with short shelf lives. 

 

I think this year is a huge window. We have a lot of FAs after this season and I think 2023 but particularly 2024 and 2025 we will probably have slightly less talented rosters than 2021 and 2022. Not so much so that it makes it impossible to win a Superbowl. But it will be harder. Then the window can, theoretically widen again because by 2026, 2027 and 2028 Josh Allen's contract will look like a total bargain against an ever escalating cap and QB salary inflation. But in order for that to happen we will have had to find some answers at LT, EDGE, CB1 and WR1 because Dion will be 31, Stef 31, Von retired and Tre 30 by 2026. 

 

In conclusion, the window is open as long as we have Josh. But within that period there will be years when it is open wider than others. This is one of those years.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 Josh's contract hasn't even kicked in and it's already a steal. Because of that, the Pegulas willingness to spend, McBeane and soon.....a ballooning salary cap, our window is WIDE open.

 

 

 

 

[Bronxbomber21]

I think we are  in the window and will be for a while. We should've won our first SB last season.  We were 13 seconds away from beating KC three games in a row 

[Gunsgoodtime]

If it happens just 1 year, the window closes.  It won't matter after that

10 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I think we are  in the window and will be for a while. We should've won our first SB last season.  We were 13 seconds away from beating KC three games in a row 

Except it was after 1 regular season game,a divisional playoff game, and a regular season game

[H2o]

Allen is the truth. He is undoubtedly a top 3 QB in this league, and #1 in my opinion. As long as you have a guy like that, you have a shot to win it all every year. Outside of the Pats run, where they won 6 Championships in 2 decades, stuff like that never generally happens. Some teams may get a couple or three in a single Era, but not the Pats type of success. The health of your star players is a huge deciding factor as well. If we get one, just one SB, I will be happy. Anything after that is a plus. I do think if we win one, we could very well end up winning 3 though. The way this team is built, and the core of relatively young guys we have, makes it very possible. We shall see. I hope that one SB is finally this year, but a lot of football left to go. 

[HOUSE]

Ok, maybe ..

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

I don't think we'll miss the playoffs until Allen is injured a good portion of the year or his running ability is gone.

[Max Fischer]

I’ve reached an age where I make an effort to enjoy every moment of a team’s success. Good teams can turn sour overnight and then it’s gone. Of course expectations change, but unlike many “important” things in our lives, we have no control over the outcome of our teams. May as well sit back and enjoy what we have in the moment. 
 

I can’t get caught up in the Bills “window” because it’s unknowable. But I do take a great comfort in the belief that if Pegula, Beane, McDermott and Allen are around, the Bills will have a good shot every season. 

[MarlinTheMagician]

There is no window.  I am sure every NFL GM/Coach combination feels the same way, but Beane and McDermott seem uniquely able to build, develop and structure players and contracts so that we can remain competitive all the time.  I believe they would have found a way to be in the hunt even if we missed on Josh.  But we didn't miss on Josh, they hit it out of the park.  For a decade, sky is the limit.  If Beane and McDermott still want to be doing this long in the future, I have every confidence they will identify and obtain a quarterback that will put us right back in the hunt.  Though I doubt we will ever see another one quite like Josh in my lifetime. 

[Fingon]

The window is this year. Josh's cap hit goes from $16 million to $39 million next year. That means we will need to shed cap space in the form of letting someone go (Poyer?) or simply not extending good players coming off rookie deals. Ultimately, this will result in the Bills being more frugal and not being able to make many splashy FA moves.

 

The Bills will shift to a team that looks to fill holes through cost efficient late and mid round picks. 

 

Now, it's not to say that they can't win a super bowl like this, but it's sure as ***** a hell of a lot harder.  The Bills will need Josh to shift to a Brady-style below market value contract if they want to be perennial winners.

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Fingon

[JimBob2232]

Just enjoy it.  We waited 20+ years for this!

[Billsatlastin2018]

Championship Longevity is always the assumption of a sports team’s fan base.

 

The reason that it is rare today is a combination of obvious factors- $, injury, team chemistry, constant lineup additions rather than subtractions, divas who believe they are the ‘I’ in Team, ‘13 second’ HCing decisions, etc.

 

It is very tough to win an NFL Championship!

It is soooo much tougher to repeat!

 

When you get you’re opportunity, seize that brass ring!

 

If not, ask Dan Marino.

[mannc]

As of now, there has never been an NFL quarterback with Josh’s combined running and passing ability.  At some point, Josh will start to decline as a running threat, but will remain an elite QB for years after that.  I’d say the next 3-4 seasons is the Bills’ window with peak Josh Allen, but their Super Bowl window will remain open for many years after that, with a somewhat less dynamic, but still elite, JA.

[Punching Bag]

11 hours ago, mrags said:

Pretty much every other franchise in football could assume that. 

 

There have been multiple teams which have won Superbowls which with backup QBs.

I believe Beane will need to find a candidate to groom to which can be our Reich, someone who can step in and win a game if Josh is dinged and is out part of a game or a game.  Maybe even get trade when backup has had value enhanced by experience with Bills.  The Pegulas have been willing to spend what is needed and they can sign a former player to take the role of confidant and extra head in QB room. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

There have been multiple teams which have won Superbowls which with backup QBs.

I believe Beane will need to find a candidate to groom to which can be our Reich, someone who can step in and win a game if Josh is dinged and is out part of a game or a game.  Maybe even get trade when backup has had value enhanced by experience with Bills.  The Pegulas have been willing to spend what is needed and they can sign a former player to take the role of confidant and extra head in QB room. 

Name two backup QBs right now who are better than Case Keenum.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Fingon said:

The window is this year. Josh's cap hit goes from $16 million to $39 million next year. That means we will need to shed cap space in the form of letting someone go (Poyer?) or simply not extending good players coming off rookie deals. Ultimately, this will result in the Bills being more frugal and not being able to make many splashy FA moves.

 

The Bills will shift to a team that looks to fill holes through cost efficient late and mid round picks. 

 

Now, it's not to say that they can't win a super bowl like this, but it's sure as ***** a hell of a lot harder.  The Bills will need Josh to shift to a Brady-style below market value contract if they want to be perennial winners.

 

 

This is a post made looking at Buffalo in a vacuum. 
 

Yes, we likely lose Poyer this off-season.   Buffalo will have to backfill positions like both Safety spots, in the next year or two with draft picks. 
 

However:
 

Beane is obsessive in not just building a team that can win this year, but creating a machine that can win year after year.  
 

Future dead money is in line with what average teams carry year to year.   Beane will obviously have to continue drafting well. 
 

Look at how we’ve built this thing with no massive guaranteed contracts, outside Josh, past ‘24.  Everyone who has guaranteed money on this team is playing at a high level, and - knock on wood - looks like they’ll do so for the entirety of their guaranteed contract. 
 

Beane has built this team without trading away tons of picks.  Unlike many other contenders, we still have all future picks, plus next years 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (at worst if we keep Hines). 
 

Yes, JA’s contract kicks in.  Mahomes just kicked in this year.  Already Allen and Mahomes look like steals.  Now, what about other AFC contenders…

 

Cincy - Burrow

LAC - Herbert

Baltimore - Jackson

Cleveland - Watson

Miami - Tua

 

All those teams have gone heavy in currently due to another couple years before they have to deal with cap hits.  Those cap hits are coming, and (outside maybe Tua) they’re going to be worse than what the Bills and Chiefs have on the books for a good while. 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by SCBills

[rockpile]

I care the most about a Super Bowl win. I love this team, but am tired of "close but no cigar". That is my number one dream.  Having it last a decade or more would be my number two dream. It would be a little empty without the Trophy. Last championship I celebrated was AFL!

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Josh is the window.  There's a chance he ends up on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks before it's all said and done. And if that's the case, you're looking at three or more Super Bowl championships.

It is hard to win in the NFL.   Rodgers has one championship...Rothlisberger won two.  Eli had two.  FA, Salary Cap and Draft order ensures parity in NFL

[SoCal Deek]

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. I’ve told this story before…I talked to Don Shula in an airport many years ago (we sat there for about twenty minutes). He was super nice. And when I told him I was a Bills fan I was shocked he didn’t mention all the years they beat us. Instead, what he remembered was having Dan Marino as his QB for all those later years and never making it back to the Super Bowl after his rookie season because they had to get through the Bills. 
 

As others have said…just enjoy THIS  season. 

[rockpile]

11 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

The window is now.

We don't know, what tomorrow, may bring.

Spoken like a veteran! 😁

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Success said:

Just curious what others think - because I see that all the time on opposing fans message boards, and I don't relate to it.

 

I think the window will be WIDE open as long as JA is QB, and Beane is GM.  I don't need any more proof from either. JA is elite, and Beane seems like a wizard w/ the cap, who knows how to build an A1 team for today, and also keep an eye on building a model for success that's sustainable.  We'll lose players like all great teams do, but he is a very good drafter, finds gems in FA, and has a real vision for keeping this team in contention.

 

I think we'll be knocking on the door for a title every year for at least a decade.  I tend to lean homer, but I also think this is objective based on how good these guys are at their jobs.

 

What say you?

 

 

 

I'm with you. Unless Josh really has some kind of physical regression and just can't do the things he can do now, we'll be competitive every year. He's that good.

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. I’ve told this story before…I talked to Don Shula in an airport many years ago (we sat there for about twenty minutes). He was super nice. And when I told him I was a Bills fan I was shocked he didn’t mention all the years they beat us. Instead, what he remembered was having Dan Marino as his QB for all those later years and never making it back to the Super Bowl after his rookie season because they had to get through the Bills. 
 

As others have said…just enjoy THIS  season. 

 

 

I hear you. Fair enough.

 

But Beane is much better than Miami's GM all those years.

 

And me personally, I'm perfectly capable of enjoying the hell out of this season while speculating about the future at the same time.

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I hear you. Fair enough.

 

But Beane is much better than Miami's GM all those years.

 

And me personally, I'm perfectly capable of enjoying the hell out of this season while speculating about the future at the same time.

So now we have to start a thread about whether Beane is going to still be here in ten years? 😉