Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Rodgers is a HOF QB for a reason. He also takes pride in winning when everyone counts him out. He's said it many times. 

 

They're going to bring it next Sunday. 

 

As opposed to bringing it yesterday after already being down 2?  Im sure they will try real hard but it wont be enough.

[Chandler#81]

   

@BuffaloBill please pin this thread. It’s Packers week!

[zow2]

I'm trying to guess which important Buffalo Bills player who finished the KC game, and looked fine, will show up on the injury report this week as "Limited" or "Questionable". It always seems to happen.

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I know, I know..."Any Given Sunday"...

But it's hard for me to see how this Bills team, which is now pretty healthy and has never lost coming off a bye week under coach McDermott and is playing at home...is going to lose to this absolutely below average Packers team.

Bills have the 2nd ranked scoring offense going against the 15th ranked scoring defense.
Bills have the 1st ranked scoring defense going against the 23rd ranked scoring offense.

Bills are better at just about every position across the board, including -- right this moment, at least -- at quarterback.

I don't see this being one of those close games that has you biting your nails. I see this being one of those "Case Keenum is playing the 4th quarter" games.

One word: Jacksonville 

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Bills are 5-0 and have never lost after the bye week under McDermott...although the games are not typically blowouts either...

 

They have won by 3,3,10,10, and 11 points after byes.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/10/23/23418830/buffalo-bills-undefeated-post-bye-games-sean-mcdermott

The algorithm is messed up.  This is the first time Bills are on national TV after a bye.   I can definitely see a slow start but pull away like the Rams game.  Glad I don’t bet. 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, BillsfaninSB said:

The algorithm is messed up.  This is the first time Bills are on national TV after a bye.   I can definitely see a slow start but pull away like the Rams game.  Glad I don’t bet. 

 

I would think the opposite. Being on national TV (SNF in OP) you know the crowd will be going bonkers. I could see the Bills coming out fired up and starting fast.

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

Poor Collingsworth if it is a Bills blowout. You know he is going to want to be a Rodgers cheerleader all night. I guess he will have to switch to Allen then.

He still will cheer for Rodgers. 

[FilthyBeast]

In years past this type of game would concern me as the Bills used to be everyone's 'get right/get on track' type of game.

 

But even if the Packers magically look like a different team this week I think the Bills would truly have to implode for them to even have a chance in this, let alone go into Buffalo and win. This team is just built different and can't see a letdown here after taking care of business in KC off a bye week.

 

[eball]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

In years past this type of game would concern me as the Bills used to be everyone's 'get right/get on track' type of game.

 

But even if the Packers magically look like a different team this week I think the Bills would truly have to implode for them to even have a chance in this, let alone go into Buffalo and win. This team is just built different and can't see a letdown here after taking care of business in KC off a bye week.

 

 

Who are you, and what did you do with @FilthyBeast?

 

[GottaRun]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I don't see this being one of those close games that has you biting your nails. I see this being one of those "Case Keenum is playing the 4th quarter" games.

 

I hate 8:20pm starts, I'm hoping to be in my car driving home by 9:00pm at the latest 🙃

[Bills2022]

The Bills will win this game, probably pull away big in the 2nd half, but the Packers defense is legit. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

One word: Jacksonville 

 

We weren't at home, coming off the bye and in PrimeTime, a spot Allen has loved his whole career.

26 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

The Bills will win this game, probably pull away big in the 2nd half, but the Packers defense is legit. 

 

They are OK. Have faded somewhat after a very strong start 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am really juiced for this game. As I recall, Aaron Rodgers embarrassed us pretty well the last few times we played the packers. We got one win, through a bunch of weird flukes, where the GB receivers dropped a bunch of balls. 
 

I really hope we blow these guys out.

[nosejob]

33 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

The Bills will win this game, probably pull away big in the 2nd half, but the Packers defense is legit. 

I believe I just heard on the radio minutes ago that the Packers have the no.1 pass defense?

[jkeerie]

10 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I believe I just heard on the radio minutes ago that the Packers have the no.1 pass defense?

They give up the fewest passing yards per game, but they're 26th in run defense.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

3 hours ago, Zac said:

Sharp money in Vegas is coming in on the Packers.  Public betting super lopsided on the Bills.  Just seeing the narratives that the Bills are going to obliterate the Packers makes me uneasy.  Rodgers covers as an underdog the majority of the time and his back is against the wall.  The Packers defense is also built to stop the pass and has the #1 defense in yards per game.  They are also a relatively efficient red zone defense.  
 

Bills big blowout wins have been against teams that are built to run and struggle to pass, with the exception of the Rams.  Difference between Packers and Rams are Rams are horrifically inefficient in the red zone, while the Packers are more efficient than the Bills.  
 

Essentially I’m saying the Packers have the capability to shorten this game, with a strong pass defense, good run game and capable QB play. The Bills will also be incentivized to run the ball as it’s Green Bay’s biggest weakness.  
 

counter argument to this of course is they lost to the Jets by 17. my counter point is if you look at the box score the Jets should have never won by 17.  Blocked punt for a TD.  Awful passing numbers.  We also don’t have a home run threat on the ground like Breece Hall

 

I suspect this to be low scoring, and the Packers to keep it within 7-10.   Bills win though.  Something like 24-14. 
 

To be clear I don’t think there’s any way the Bills lose, nor do I think it will “feel” close. I just think the 10.5 is a suckers bet and all the fans saying they want to tease it to 17 or 21 points are nuts.  

 

 The Packers #1 defense against the pass feels eerily similar to the mirage that was our #1 defense last year. Both played a bunch of weak QBs. My bet is Josh throws for over 300, maybe even 350. The QBs they've faced this year:

 

• Kirk Cousins - Played well 23/32 277 2 TDs Rating 118.8

 

• Justin Fields - Bad QB, averaging less than 150 ypg

 

• Tom Brady - Has struggled all season, but one of his better games this year 31/42 271  1 TD

 

• Daniel Jones- Better runner than passer.

 

• Zach Wilson - No way this guy is an NFL starting QB, Flacco played far, far better the first 3 games averaging over 300 a game. Wilson struggles to hit 150.

 

• Taylor Heinicke - Quality backup at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[appoo]

17 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am really juiced for this game. As I recall, Aaron Rodgers embarrassed us pretty well the last few times we played the packers. We got one win, through a bunch of weird flukes, where the GB receivers dropped a bunch of balls. 
 

I really hope we blow these guys out.

I thought the last time the Bills played the Pack, they solidified themselves as an elite defense and held Rodgers to some absurdly bad numbers

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

3 minutes ago, appoo said:

I thought the last time the Bills played the Pack, they solidified themselves as an elite defense and held Rodgers to some absurdly bad numbers

 

 We did, 21-13 in 2014. Rodgers was 17/42 for 185  0 TDs, 2 INTs QB Rating 34.3. I remember Mario Williams strip sacked him towards the end of the game.

 

[Logic]

2 hours ago, CSBill said:

One word: Jacksonville 

Yeah, I know it.

Hence the "Any Given Sunday" deference in my post.

Still. I've watched this Packers team lose three straight games to the likes of the Giants, Jets, and Commanders.

More importantly, I think this year's team is not last year's Bills team. That doesn't mean that the same type of "out of nowhere" loss can't happen. Of course it can. It just means that I feel like this year's Bills are a different animal.

I also think McDermott's got some post bye week special sauce that he sprinkles on this team. 

Can the Packers win? Of course. Will I be completely shocked if they do? Definitely.

[Buffalo716]

36 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am really juiced for this game. As I recall, Aaron Rodgers embarrassed us pretty well the last few times we played the packers. We got one win, through a bunch of weird flukes, where the GB receivers dropped a bunch of balls. 
 

I really hope we blow these guys out.

Bills are 1-2 vs Rodgers 

[eball]

1 hour ago, Bills2022 said:

The Bills will win this game, probably pull away big in the 2nd half, but the Packers defense is legitimately mediocre.

 

FIFY

[Process]

52 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 The Packers #1 defense against the pass feels eerily similar to the mirage that was our #1 defense last year. Both played a bunch of weak QBs. My bet is Josh throws for over 300, maybe even 350. The QBs they've faced this year:

 

• Kirk Cousins - Played well 23/32 277 2 TDs Rating 118.8

 

• Justin Fields - Bad QB, averaging less than 150 ypg

 

• Tom Brady - Has struggled all season, but one of his better games this year 31/42 271  1 TD

 

• Daniel Jones- Better runner than passer.

 

• Zach Wilson - No way this guy is an NFL starting QB, Flacco played far, far better the first 3 games averaging over 300 a game. Wilson struggles to hit 150.

 

• Taylor Heinicke - Quality backup at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brady also missing his top 3 WRs that game

[ehfeuh57]

On 10/22/2022 at 3:00 AM, DrDare said:

By the way after GB beats up on Washington the line should move closer

 

GB did NOT beat up on Washington

[ToGoGo]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

As opposed to bringing it yesterday after already being down 2?  Im sure they will try real hard but it wont be enough.

 

I know he's not a likeable personality but the Bills should count him out at their own peril. He has won the last 2 MVPs. He can turn it on at any time.

 

You realize this is a passing of the torch game? Brady and Rodgers do not want to pass the torch to Allen and Mahomes for as long as possible. Rodgers will wake up for this game much much than others. 

[Ta111]

22 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I know he's not a likeable personality but the Bills should count him out at their own peril. He has won the last 2 MVPs. He can turn it on at any time.

 

You realize this is a passing of the torch game? Brady and Rodgers do not want to pass the torch to Allen and Mahomes for as long as possible. Rodgers will wake up for this game much much than others. 

Good luck with that. He’s a 38 year old with declining capabilities who has sh** around him. They just lost to Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinrich for Pete’s sake.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Bills practice tomorrow I take it? 

[RiotAct]

29 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Bills practice tomorrow I take it? 

I think just meetings and walk-throughs, but I could be wrong.

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, Ta111 said:

Good luck with that. He’s a 38 year old with declining capabilities who has sh** around him. They just lost to Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinrich for Pete’s sake.

 

I'm not saying he's going to beat us. Just that we shouldn't be foolish to dismiss him based on the weekly media cycle. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

One word: Jacksonville 

Everything happens for a reason. I think this Bills team has learned from last year's mistakes. That is what I am choosing to believe until proven otherwise. 

4 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am really juiced for this game. As I recall, Aaron Rodgers embarrassed us pretty well the last few times we played the packers. We got one win, through a bunch of weird flukes, where the GB receivers dropped a bunch of balls. 
 

I really hope we blow these guys out.

I went to the last game at GB in 2018. The Packers toyed with the Bills; the Bills were never really in the game. 

[aristocrat]

Always good to get through the bud week with no bad news. 

[Motor26]

15 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I'm not saying he's going to beat us. Just that we shouldn't be foolish to dismiss him based on the weekly media cycle. 

 

It's not based on the weekly media cycle. His teammates are so bad, he doesn't trust any of his wide receivers to run the right routes or make contested catches. Only way GB has a shot is if they are able to run all over the Bills. 

[mannc]

2 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I know he's not a likeable personality but the Bills should count him out at their own peril. He has won the last 2 MVPs. He can turn it on at any time.

 

You realize this is a passing of the torch game? Brady and Rodgers do not want to pass the torch to Allen and Mahomes for as long as possible. Rodgers will wake up for this game much much than others. 

Too late…the torch has already been passed.

[wjag]

 

So what do you think the Keenum vs Love stats will look like?

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I know he's not a likeable personality but the Bills should count him out at their own peril. He has won the last 2 MVPs. He can turn it on at any time.

 

You realize this is a passing of the torch game? Brady and Rodgers do not want to pass the torch to Allen and Mahomes for as long as possible. Rodgers will wake up for this game much much than others. 

 

Has nothing to do with his personality.  I couldnt care less about that.  I may have a few laughs over it but thats about it.  GB is playing like garbage.  Im not worried about them suddenly turning it on just because they are playing the Bills.  

[Punching Bag]

6 hours ago, eball said:

 

Who are you, and what did you do with @FilthyBeast?

 

 

You are making it sound like he has multiple personalities.

[AuntieEm]

3 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

 

I know he's not a likeable personality but the Bills should count him out at their own peril. He has won the last 2 MVPs. He can turn it on at any time.

 

You realize this is a passing of the torch game? Brady and Rodgers do not want to pass the torch to Allen and Mahomes for as long as possible. Rodgers will wake up for this game much much than others. 

 

 

   So he's gonna wake up and retire?  He still needs someone on the other end to catch passes regardless of how he can turn it on.

[Scott7975]

 

[Beast]

17 hours ago, Bills2022 said:

The Bills will win this game, probably pull away big in the 2nd half, but the Packers defense is legit. 

Yeah, the 49ers defense was legit as well until KC came rolling into town.

[Beck Water]

17 hours ago, nosejob said:

I believe I just heard on the radio minutes ago that the Packers have the no.1 pass defense?

 

I was trying to figure this out.

They give up the fewest passing yards, but they also give up 7 YPP, which puts them 14th.  They're 16th in sacks, 3rd in pressure percentage.

 

They have a poor rush defense, #26 in Yds and #25 in YPA.  They've also played Vikes, Bears, Patriots, Giants, Jets, Commanders - all teams I would characterize as having a stronger rush game than passing game.

 

So I think what's going on is they do get pressure on QB and the teams they've played have had more success running, so they  go with what works.

 

But anything McDermott and the coaches can use to get our guys revved up for the game and not taking them lightly - in case watching the Bears take a "mercy knee" on the Pats didn't do it.

[BillsFanSD]

Looking ahead, 538 has us favored by less than a TD in only one remaining game this season (at Cincy).  We're favored by 7+ in 10 out of the next 11.  That's honestly jaw-dropping.