Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I'm not a big fan of giving players contracts that are nearly half a decade long and at top money, for the possibility that the new OC that has never called plays before might incorporate that player more.

As others have said, with the cap rising and a couple of TEs franchised, this isn't likely to be top-5 money for long.   A lot like Morse - his deal looked rich to some originally, but right now he's eighth which, if it's high, isn't high by much.  

 

For key players, you have to pay them.  

 

And that's another reason we see McBeane always looking for position flexibility.   McBeane can afford to pay Knox because they get a guy like Gilliam to be a backup tight end at relatively low cost, given that he's also the fullback, H-back, and special teams guy.  

 

McBeane know exactly what they're doing.  

[Canadian Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Good news for the Silver Bullets (my fantasy team)

 

 

Dude thats my team name!!!

[Wayne Arnold]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I bet Poyer is thrilled to hear about this.   Not that the BIlls are doing anything wrong.

 

Rachel is not going to be happy. Poyer may show up tomorrow with bruises.

[BillsFanSD]

My priorities for extensions were (1) Ed Oliver and (2) Dawson Knox.  Edmunds is a somewhat distant third, and I assume we're just going to let Poyer play out his contract (totally reasonable as a business decision). 

 

Must get Oliver done.    

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Of course it matters. I listed it for a reason. So you're paying top 5 money for an endzone specialist?

 

He's a good blocker and with his athleticism, he puts pressure on linebackers that have to cover him downfield.  He was a project coming into the NFL and has developed well...he's gotten better every year.  Should we have waited until he has another great year and have to pay more next year?

[muppy]

43 minutes ago, Rico said:

Yes indeed… this isn’t Rodgers & the Packers, need to keep Josh happy.

rewarding Knox production too. Im stoked he will be a Bill 4 more years Wooooooooooooooooot!!!!!!!

[BarleyNY]

22 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Am I the only one not super excited about paying Knox top 5 TE money?  The market has already been inflated this offseason with Njoku signing and others. Knox is good and getting better, but still has significant weaknesses and is not near the difference maker of Kelce/Andrews/Pitts etc. I just don't see the value there for the Bills. If he gave us a good deal, sure lock him up, but not for top 5 TE money.  I guess I'll wait to see all the contract details but Would have rather locked up Oliver long term and Poyer short term.  I feel like we could have replaced Knox with an early round draft pick if needed.

At first blush this is pretty much where I am. The counter arguments are:

- potential, like Njoku he’s got traits that haven’t fully translated to production (yet)

- scarcity, not a lot of even solid TEs out there so it’s $14M AAV for Knox, draft one early next year and hope or overpay on the FA market if you can even find a good match. We saw what NE just paid for their TEs so I see why we’d want to avoid that. 

- market direction, while $14M seems like an overpay, the cost of capable TEs seems to be exploding and the cap is doing the same

 

Poyer can’t be happy about this. I’m hoping we either pay him or he blocks this out and has another All Pro season so he gets paid by someone next season. 

I’m not going to slam this though. The Bills were in a tough spot here. They probably just did what they had to do.

 

* Opinions subject to revision upon contract details becoming available. 

[SCBills]

Couple observations:

 

Knox is still ascending.  Has all the tools to be elite, and barely got legitimate reps in college. 
 

Knox likely becomes a big piece of this offense.  McKenzie out of the slot is a take the top off / intermediate route weapon.  With Diggs and Davis outside, Knox and Cook can EAT in the middle of the field. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

I want to get in on the fun, but I must behave with the season 1 day away.... Glad we finally found our Tight End is all I can say😇👼

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Rachel is not going to be happy. Poyer may show up tomorrow with bruises.

She gonna whip him with her cheeks?

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

14 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Named after the women's baseball team?

I assumed the Silver Bullets were named after the 1985 Corey Haim / Gary Busey movie. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[teef]

there were people who also felt we paid allen too much, too soon.  this is a good thing.

[FLFan]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Knox makes a lot of sense to me.   

 

I think the model McBeane are following is to have a half-dozen, solid leaders.   They change of course, but it's a half dozen solid veterans.

 

Look at the captains.   Josh, Diggs, Hyde, Miller, Morse, Edmunds, and Poyer.   Miller replace Hughes, who was a leader last year but on the bubble.  Edmunds and Poyer are on the bubble this year.   Oliver needs to prove he can make it up to that level.  White certainly will be on that list when he returns.

 

Below those guys, you want a lot of solid guys in mid-career, guys who will be serious contributors but who may very well get replaced after their second contract.   That's probably Poyer.  And it's also probably Knox.   He's very good and probably will get better over the next year or two, but he may never grow into a senior leadership position.   If he becomes Kelce, okay, he becomes a captain and he stays.  Otherwise, he's in Buffalo as a big contributor, and in the next couple of seasons the Bills begin looking for his replacement, just like they've been grooming Johnson as Poyer's replacement.  In the meantime, he's a solid contributor to the Bills success, so they pay him nicely.  

 

The third tier of guys are on their rookie deals or one- or two-year vet deals.  They like being on the team because they can be on a winner, and the young guys know that they can work their way into tier two.   And they know they can work their way all the way to tier one, the captains.   A guy like Benford knows today that the path is open for him to be in the new generation of leaders .behind White and Hyde.  

 

And it's not really about whether Knox is actually a top-five tight end.   Maybe he's only top-10.  Maybe the Bills had to overpay in a small sense.   The Bills don't mind - it's absolutely essential to McBeane that they have top-tier veteran leadership (Allen, Diggs, Morse, Miller, Hyde, White) and that they have a half-dozen or more second-tier guys, like Knox, Taron Johnson, etc.   So, for example, Bills may have overpaid for Star, and it didn't work out.  They may have overpaid for Morse, and it did.   You can't hit on every one, but I think that's the model.   Knox fits perfectly in their second tier.  

Excellent post.  Hit the nail on the head. Stats only tell part of the story here.  Knox has improved each year and is poised to take another step.  It takes time to grow a tight end.  TEs that are ready to play and contribute out of college are a rare commodity. Knox is there now and the Bills do not want to start over.  He plays a critical role on the team and will likely see an even bigger role going forward.  This contract will look like a bargain in two years.

[vtnatefootball11]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Gesicki, Schultz, Hockenson and Fant are all going to jump his contract next year.

I think it's good Beane got it done now.

 

Gessicki, Schultz, Hockenden, and Fant MAY get a jump, IF they produce this year. It's a fair consideration though I will give you that. I would have liked to take the same risk with Knox.  Think we could have signed him cheaper at year end, hope he blows up and I'm wrong, but just saying.  I don't think any team goes into playing Buffalo saying "we gotta stop Dawson Knox".  His production could be replaced by an early round draft pick.  I just can't get on board with paying a guy top 5 money at a premium inflated market position for that. 

[BuffaloBills1998]

54 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

1st step towards Poyer and Edmunds becoming UFA’s next season.  
 

Next step…Ed Oliver extension. 

That’s too bad about Poyer, I’d like to see Poyer stay

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Named after the women's baseball team?

Nickname for the Buckeye defense 

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2022/08/132174/it-takes-a-lot-of-time-to-make-a-silver-bullet-but-jim-knowles-is-going-to-try-and-expedite-the-process?amp

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Rachel bout to be PISSED 🤣

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Rachel is not going to be happy. Poyer may show up tomorrow with bruises.

Im sure Poyer knows the deal.  I doubt he’s surprised this happened. 
 

Maybe this is structured so that they can offer Poyer a 2 year extension, but if I had to guess… he knows he’s playing his final year in Buffalo and wants to go out a Super Bowl Champion, then cash in one last time. 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

there were people who also felt we paid allen too much, too soon.  this is a good thing.

 

It's like people don't understand inflation.

[Perk71]

Go Bills!!

[BuffaloBills1998]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Im sure Poyer knows the deal.  I doubt he’s surprised this happened. 
 

Maybe this is structured so that they can offer Poyer a 2 year extension, but if I had to guess… he knows he’s playing his final year in Buffalo and wants to go out a Super Bowl Champion, then cash in one last time. 

Agreed that’s most likely Poyer’s mentality right now. It’s too bad cause I’d like him to stay but the way the salary cap is structured, you can’t keep everyone

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Gessicki, Schultz, Hockenden, and Fant MAY get a jump, IF they produce this year. It's a fair consideration though I will give you that. I would have liked to take the same risk with Knox.  Think we could have signed him cheaper at year end, hope he blows up and I'm wrong, but just saying.  I don't think any team goes into playing Buffalo saying "we gotta stop Dawson Knox".  His production could be replaced by an early round draft pick.  I just can't get on board with paying a guy top 5 money at a premium inflated market position for that. 

 

He was absolutely a top 10 TE last year in overall value and value per play. I believe he will easily be in the top 5 this year. 

[3rdnlng]

@Wayne ArnoldI objected to you calling all billionaires the dregs of society so you post an emoji laughing at my objection? If you disagree with me state your case, don't hide behind an emoji. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's like people don't understand inflation.

unless he has a massive regression that i can't imagine happening, it was only going to cost a lot more next year.  i love the move.  keep this together.  at the end of the day, the posters i guessed who would have a problem with it are the exact ones how have a problem with it.  

 

i remember the criticism this pick received after the draft.  how could the bills possibly draft a te who had never had a td in college?   the staff knows far more than we do.

[sven233]

Awesome......  Now get to work on Oliver.  He's going to be a tough one, though.  He's going to want to get PAID.  Here's hoping the salary cap just explodes even higher than the projections indicate.  Going to need all the help we can get.  Luckily with the way Allen's contract is structured, the Bills will be able to create huge cap space any year they want to by converting his salary into bonuses.  That will greatly help with the flexibility we will need for guys like Oliver and hopefully Davis down the road.

Edited September 7, 2022 by sven233

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Im sure Poyer knows the deal.  I doubt he’s surprised this happened. 
 

Maybe this is structured so that they can offer Poyer a 2 year extension, but if I had to guess… he knows he’s playing his final year in Buffalo and wants to go out a Super Bowl Champion, then cash in one last time. 

 

Exactly. For the players that want a new deal but arent getting one (Poyer, Edmunds), they should be even more motivated to ball out for us this year to maximize their value in FA. Love it.

[julian]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He's a good blocker and with his athleticism, he puts pressure on linebackers that have to cover him downfield.  He was a project coming into the NFL and has developed well...he's gotten better every year.  Should we have waited until he has another great year and have to pay more next year?

It’s strange to me that some fans only see the stat line and can’t seem to grasp the bigger picture

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Ha ha you're not giving a speech to Parliament bro, it's a post on a fan website.  😉

 

Day job, meet weekend hobby.

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Gessicki, Schultz, Hockenden, and Fant MAY get a jump, IF they produce this year. It's a fair consideration though I will give you that. I would have liked to take the same risk with Knox.  Think we could have signed him cheaper at year end, hope he blows up and I'm wrong, but just saying.  I don't think any team goes into playing Buffalo saying "we gotta stop Dawson Knox".  His production could be replaced by an early round draft pick.  I just can't get on board with paying a guy top 5 money at a premium inflated market position for that. 

 

Yolo just posted a tweet saying what I'm thinking.  I guess using stats some may not like the signing, but I think Knox is still developing

and has a good chance to outplay his contract in the long run.

 

I also think all 4 will sign for more than Knox.  That will put him at 10.

[buffaloboyinATL]

49 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Am I the only one not super excited about paying Knox top 5 TE money?  The market has already been inflated this offseason with Njoku signing and others. Knox is good and getting better, but still has significant weaknesses and is not near the difference maker of Kelce/Andrews/Pitts etc. I just don't see the value there for the Bills. If he gave us a good deal, sure lock him up, but not for top 5 TE money.  I guess I'll wait to see all the contract details but Would have rather locked up Oliver long term and Poyer short term.  I feel like we could have replaced Knox with an early round draft pick if needed.

Probably not the only one, but definitely in the minority.  If Josh wants him here, I want him here.  We need to try and keep "his guys" around him for as long as possible.  

[Alphadawg7]

Welp, now we know why Beane freed up some cap space, and love this move!  I said earlier in the offseason that I hoped they signed his extension before the season happens to avoid driving his price too high out of range if he had a big season.  

 

Personally, I think Knox statistically may not see a huge bump in production this year, but that won't devalue who he is to the team or his talents.  And I only say that because this roster is loaded with players who will be, and should be, touching the football and has a QB who spreads the ball around.  Davis IMO might even lead the team in yards and TD's this year over Diggs, I think he will be that involved. 

 

Then we got a renewed running game, a solid pass catcher RB in Devin/Moss with a pass catching specialist in Cook, to go along with likely more rush attempts too.  Then we have 3 slot guys who all should see snaps in McKenzie, Shakir, and Crowder.  

 

There is just one football, so I think 500-600 yards and 6-10 TD's is a reasonable expectation again this year.  He absolutely has the capability of exceeding that, just think much more than that will be tough with how many weapons we have.  

 

[stevewin]

42 minutes ago, MPL said:

I like this move. Now I just need to get my wife on board with naming our first born son Dawson Lawson 😂

If not can always go 2nd option Shaq

[RoyBatty is alive]

Fantastic!

[DrDawkinstein]

44 minutes ago, MPL said:

I like this move. Now I just need to get my wife on board with naming our first born son Dawson Lawson 😂

 

1 minute ago, stevewin said:

If not can always go 2nd option Shaq

 

No love for Manny?!?

[YattaOkasan]

18 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Gessicki, Schultz, Hockenden, and Fant MAY get a jump, IF they produce this year. It's a fair consideration though I will give you that. I would have liked to take the same risk with Knox.  Think we could have signed him cheaper at year end, hope he blows up and I'm wrong, but just saying.  I don't think any team goes into playing Buffalo saying "we gotta stop Dawson Knox".  His production could be replaced by an early round draft pick.  I just can't get on board with paying a guy top 5 money at a premium inflated market position for that. 

Lol what early round draft pick could replace his production?  From this list of top rookie TE production there are 4 this century with more production and they all had more targets.  so it is laughable to suggest an early round draft pick could replace him.  Also would note that the Pitts and Shockey's of the world go in the top half of the first round (not where were picking).  also were you the one saying kelce is a better blocker?  quickly losing credibility.

Edited September 7, 2022 by YattaOkasan

[purple haze]

44 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

Glad they got in done now, he's probably going to have a big year. Would have been nice to get it done before the absurd Njoku contract though, stupid Cleveland definitely cost us some money.

In fairness, if one isn’t a Bills fan, Knox’s contract will look absurd too.  They both are very athletic TEs, flash major potential, get the dropsies and don’t have big overall stats.  The Browns didn’t have Josh Allen either. QB play in Cleveland has been spotty.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

54 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Not a player I would have committed to.  I still think its him or Gabe.  Looks like Buffalo valued Knox more.

 

We shall see, but my guess, he never lives up to contract.

I disagree with you but kudos to posting a contrarian viewpoint. Nothing wrong with that and Bills history for TE development certainly is awful.  I think Knox is the most physically gifted TE Bills have ever had and I've been a proponent of him since his mid rookie year.

I think your logic is a bit flawed in terms of it being a decision between Knox and Davis.  If you are thinking about money spent on offense the next decision might be Singletary or Davis. And if Davis has a breakout year that is a no brainer.

 

[Virgil]

I love Knox and glad he’s staying.  Money seems a bit high, but it’s not my money.  
 

I think it’s interesting that he signed before Poyer, Edmunds, and Oliver, for whatever that’s worth 

[gobills404]

34 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The tweet mentions that the deal is expected to put him in the top 5 of TE's. We know what the top 5 makes.

 

 

Based on what?

 

- 18th in TE receptions

- 15th in TE yards

- 22nd in TE yards per reception

 

Only stat he is one of the best is tight end TD's.

 

 

- 12th in yards per game

- 1st in TDs per game

- 7th in yards per target

- 1st in passer rating when targeted

- Is a very good blocker

 

They’re probably about to give him the targets he deserves and wanted to extend him before his market price shoots through the roof.