2023 Extension? (Poyer/Edmunds/Knox/Oliver)

[elijah]

Between the contracts and money handed out this offseason, Poyer changing agents and very polarizing opinions on Edmunds this is starting to become a pretty hot topic on Twitter. 

 

Right now according to Over The Cap, the Bills are projected to have around $21,868,000 in 2023 Cap Space. With that cap space, Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary will all be due extensions. The Spotrac market value numbers are as follows, 

 

Jordan Poyer: 2yrs/$23M

Tremaine Edmunds: 4yrs/$55M

Dawson Knox: 3yrs/$25M

Ed Oliver: $10M-$15M per year

Devin Singletary: $4M-$8M per year

 

Oliver & Singletary didn’t have market values yet, so just rough guesstimates for them two. 

 

With that being said, Beane can easily clear more space next year by restructuring bonuses for Allen, Miller and Diggs, among the other magic he works.

 

Assuming Beane can only extend 3 of these guys, as that seems like the logical number with the projected cap space and cap hits, who does TBD think it would be? 

 

My own take, and I suppose part of the motivation in creating this thread, would be a hot take for most in that Edmunds gets his extension before/rather than Knox getting an extension. 

 

I think Ed Oliver is the only lock on the list for the extension and Beane has come close to saying so himself. As for Poyer, I think he’s an integral part of the defense and there’s only noise right now because he switched his agent (and a particularly noisy sidekick acting as she does). He’s coming off of an all-pro year, and a $12M/year contract on a short term deal shouldn’t price Beane out of a top 3 safety tandem in the league. 

 

As for Edmunds, I’m an Edmunds truther (apologist?). Believe it or not, he’s only 23 years old going into his 5th season! 😆 But jokes aside, NFL execs love him for a reason. He’s fast, lengthy and just starting to come into his own. 

 

If Beane could make the numbers for Knox work, I’m not here to say that Knox won’t get extended. But with the Bills projected to be tight to the cap, I just don’t see how Knox works in with the numbers. In my scenario, between Poyer, Edmunds and Oliver you’re looking at about $35M-$40M of extension money and maybe more. 

 

Knox had a good development year, but it was just that, a good development year. I think fans have taken a 9 TD season and some big plays in big moments, and started to convince themselves he’s a cornerstone and vital piece of the offense. In reality, he only had 49 receptions (18th among TE’s) and 587 yards (15th). He’s just an average tight end in a WR-driven offense. 

 

What say you, TBD? 

Edited April 8, 2022 by elijah

[Warriorspikes51]

Poyer soon, Knox and Oliver next spring.

 

Edmunds traded

 

Devin UFA

[wppete]

We need to lock up Big Ed right now before he has his breakout season. 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

4 minutes ago, wppete said:

We need to lock up Big Ed right now before he has his breakout season. 

I think Von's presence will lead to Rousseau and Oliver both getting 10+ sacks this season.

[TBBills]

Wow people actually want to keep Edmunds here.

[DCbillsfan]

I think they'll do Oliver's 5th year option and after that I think Knox will be the priority re-signing.  The Bills may want to bring back the other guys but they'll leave for more money imo.

[Rc2catch]

I picked Oliver, Knox and Edmunds. 

2 are obvious, but Edmunds extension is priceless entertainment on here for years to come, can’t turn that down. 

[Einstein's Dog]

10 minutes ago, elijah said:

My own take, and I suppose part of the motivation in creating this thread, would be a hot take for most in that Edmunds gets his extension before/rather than Knox getting an extension. 

 

Knox had a good development year, but it was just that, a good development year. I think fans have taken a 9 TD season and some big plays in big moments, and started to convince themselves he’s a cornerstone and vital piece of the offense. In reality, he only had 49 receptions (18th among TE’s) and 587 yards (15th). He’s just an average tight end in a WR-driven offense. 

 

I don't think Edmunds over Knox at all.  Edmunds seems replaceable to me and they should be getting that person in the upcoming draft.  That Troy Anderson would do nicely IMO.

 

Knox didn't just have a good developmental year, he had a good year period.  And he is ascending.  Not only did his numbers shoot up but his blocking improved tremendously.  To me, he is a core member of the offense.  If Dawson would do the hypothetical 3yr/$25M, you do that now.  Njoku is getting >$10M.

[NewEra]

Those spotrac numbers are ridiculous, especially Knox’s l, 3 years 25M lol.  If that’s the number, he’d be back 💯.  But he’s getting 11-15M aav imo.  

 

Ed is the only player guaranteed to be extended imo.  
 

No to Motor.  Good player at a position not worth paying. I’d bring him back for 1-2M.

 

I’d offer Poyer 2022 and 2023 gtd money @ just under 10M aav.  That would give us Poyer and Hyde for the next 2 years, at which time we would likely move on from at least one of them given their age.  
 

edmunds, I’d offer the same contract as Milano.  If declined ✌️ 
 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted Knox, Oliver and Singletary.  I also believe that if we don't trade Edmunds, Beane will find a way to make his contract work, and he will be extended.  

[Augie]

8 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

I think they'll do Oliver's 5th year option and after that I think Knox will be the priority re-signing.  The Bills may want to bring back the other guys but they'll leave for more money imo.

I agree Oliver and Knox are the priorities there. I hope we can keep them all at the right price, but you need the young up-and-comers. I’ve always liked Knox more than most, even when he battled with the dropsies. I LOVE his trajectory and ceiling. Oliver is too good to let him get away easy, and I think his best years are ahead of him as well. 

 

Singletary shouldn’t cost much to keep. It always comes down to the dollars. 

 

This just goes to show how critical the draft is. You have to keep restocking the shelves with cheap labor. You can’t pay everyone top dollar! 

 

.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Augie

[KDIGGZ]

Ed Oliver I think is a no brainer at this point. Hasn't quite lived up to the top 10 pick but he's getting there and good enough to give another contract to. I think they can get Knox on a pretty affordable deal. He just bought a house a few months ago in Orchard Park so he's planning on staying imo. I think Edmunds is more important than Poyer unfortunately. Edmunds calls the defensive plays. Another guy off the street can't easily and quickly fill that spot so if it came down to it they are probably trying to keep Edmunds if they can. I think Hyde is more important than Poyer. Wish we could keep them all but I think Poyer made his feelings known by hiring a new agent that he wants a big long term deal and I don't think the Bills are going to be able to keep him

[GreggTX]

Definitely Knox. I'd love to keep Singletary and Poyer, but I don't know if we can afford them. Edmunds can be easily replaced. Oliver needs to take a big step in 2022. He has been very ordinary since day 1 and shown very little improvement to date. I haven't bought into the narrative that he had a breakout season in 2021. I'm also tired of people making excuses for him. It's always about how he needs better players around him. He was a top 10 pick. He should be the one making the players around him better, not the other way around.

[MAJBobby]

Priority in order

 

Oliver - Do an Allen type extension. Add 4 years to his Rookie deal. 
 

Edmunds - new Deal 5 years 50M (He means more to the Bills than fans want to believe) 

 

Knox - 6 year Deal. Probably at the 11M AAV range. (Could be a Tag Option) 

 

Singletary - I wouldn’t extend a RB 

 

Poyer - I would play this season out and put the Tag on him as long as I can get Knox Done 

Edited April 8, 2022 by MAJBobby

[mushypeaches]

I'm laughing at the thought of fans viewing Knox as average.  He doesn't have all the fancy receiving stats yet because he's sharing targets with a pretty strong group of WR's in a dynamic offense.  But he was a game changer at several points last year and took a huge step forward.  He'll be a $12M/year player on his next contract and that might be on the low end

[Rochesterfan]

22 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I think they'll do Oliver's 5th year option and after that I think Knox will be the priority re-signing.  The Bills may want to bring back the other guys but they'll leave for more money imo.

 

I believe they have already picked up his 5th year option for next year.  That is done and set.

 

 

[Logic]

Give me Oliver and Knox.

 

3T is critical to our defensive scheme. Knox has “top five in the league” upside.

 

I like Edmunds, but he hadn’t played well enough or been enough of a difference maker to spend the kind of money on him that he’ll be seeking. Draft his replacement this year or next.

 

I love Poyer, but he’s about to be 32 soon, and you simply can’t pay everyone. Furthermore, McDermott has shown conclusively that he can coach up safeties to high levels of production.

[BuffBillsForLife]

Pay Oliver and Knox, let Poyer and Singletary walk, try to trade Edmunds.

[DrDawkinstein]

Oliver and Knox. Dont care about anyone else on the list (no disrespect to Poyer, but I think he'll be aging out).

 

Will be interesting to see what we do with Davis too.

[MAJBobby]

The reality is with the Bills is there needs to be a Trophy this year if not this team will need changes. 
 

gotta get faster on Defense. 

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Oliver and Knox. Dont care about anyone else on the list (no disrespect to Poyer, but I think he'll be aging out).

 

Will be interesting to see what we do with Davis too.

Davis I think when he is due the cap will be high enough to fit two top paid WRs. I do think this year will go along way for him on if he is going to get that second contract in Buffalo 

[H2o]

I believe both Oliver and Knox will get extensions. I believe Edmunds will have to earn his on the field this year. They will use the Franchise Tag on him if need be and if his play warrants it. I can't see them giving Singletary $4M-8M. This is Poyer's swan song in a Bills' uni, possibly Hyde's as well. Don't be surprised if we go Safety with one of our picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by H2o

[HamptonBillsfan]

30 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't think Edmunds over Knox at all.  Edmunds seems replaceable to me and they should be getting that person in the upcoming draft.  That Troy Anderson would do nicely IMO.

 

Knox didn't just have a good developmental year, he had a good year period.  And he is ascending.  Not only did his numbers shoot up but his blocking improved tremendously.  To me, he is a core member of the offense.  If Dawson would do the hypothetical 3yr/$25M, you do that now.  Njoku is getting >$10M.

You haven't seen Edmunds play with a dominant D-line, and with a free agency,walk year yet. In his defense, he does a lot of things well and has not been used to maximize his speed in pressure packages at all. He runs down backs and underneath receivers as well as anybody and calls defensive signals for a top 5 defense. His instincts in space should improve and he's 23. You have rookies replacing him without a drop-off?. He will be extended guaranteed. Beane and Sean love him.

[Orlando Tim]

I would put in order of likelihood: Poyer, Oliver, Knox, Edmunds, and far down from there, Singletary. I think Poyer is almost a certainty and Oliver is likely unless he expects someone to spend a huge amount on him. 

[LABILLBACKER]

You absolutely extend Oliver & Knox. You draft Poyer & Edmunds replacements. Not sure what to do with Devin. If we draft Hall or Walker,  he might be gone. 

[nedboy7]

So who starts in the middle if Edmunds is traded.  A rookie? 

[longtimebillsfan]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

Between the contracts and money handed out this offseason, Poyer changing agents and very polarizing opinions on Edmunds this is starting to become a pretty hot topic on Twitter. 

 

Right now according to Over The Cap, the Bills are projected to have around $21,868,000 in 2023 Cap Space. With that cap space, Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary will all be due extensions. The Spotrac market value numbers are as follows, 

 

Jordan Poyer: 2yrs/$23M

Tremaine Edmunds: 4yrs/$55M

Dawson Knox: 3yrs/$25M

Ed Oliver: $10M-$15M per year

Devin Singletary: $4M-$8M per year

 

Oliver & Singletary didn’t have market values yet, so just rough guesstimates for them two. 

 

With that being said, Beane can easily clear more space next year by restructuring bonuses for Allen, Miller and Diggs, among the other magic he works.

 

Assuming Beane can only extend 3 of these guys, as that seems like the logical number with the projected cap space and cap hits, who does TBD think it would be? 

 

My own take, and I suppose part of the motivation in creating this thread, would be a hot take for most in that Edmunds gets his extension before/rather than Knox getting an extension. 

 

I think Ed Oliver is the only lock on the list for the extension and Beane has come close to saying so himself. As for Poyer, I think he’s an integral part of the defense and there’s only noise right now because he switched his agent (and a particularly noisy sidekick acting as she does). He’s coming off of an all-pro year, and a $12M/year contract on a short term deal shouldn’t price Beane out of a top 3 safety tandem in the league. 

 

As for Edmunds, I’m an Edmunds truther (apologist?). Believe it or not, he’s only 23 years old going into his 5th season! 😆 But jokes aside, NFL execs love him for a reason. He’s fast, lengthy and just starting to come into his own. 

 

If Beane could make the numbers for Knox work, I’m not here to say that Knox won’t get extended. But with the Bills projected to be tight to the cap, I just don’t see how Knox works in with the numbers. In my scenario, between Poyer, Edmunds and Oliver you’re looking at about $35M-$40M of extension money and maybe more. 

 

Knox had a good development year, but it was just that, a good development year. I think fans have taken a 9 TD season and some big plays in big moments, and started to convince themselves he’s a cornerstone and vital piece of the offense. In reality, he only had 49 receptions (18th among TE’s) and 587 yards (15th). He’s just an average tight end in a WR-driven offense. 

 

What say you, TBD? 

Though I am a fan of Singletary, it is not a good use of resources to give an average rb a second contract.

 

All in on Poyer, Knox, and Oliver.  Edmunds could go either way.  Just my opinion.

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Davis I think when he is due the cap will be high enough to fit two top paid WRs. I do think this year will go along way for him on if he is going to get that second contract in Buffalo 

 

Agreed. It wont be long until teams will have $100M wrapped up in 3 guys. QB ($50M), WR1 ($30M), WR2 ($20M).

 

[skibum]

Poyer will be 31 next year, and all those other guys are much younger. The most logical scenario has him moving on. I think Beane drafts a safety early this year so he can respectfully let Jordan hit the market and retire a very rich man. I believe his services on a two year deal would be very valuable out there, possibly more per year than the Bills would want to match. On the other hand, teams might balk a bit at an older player in a position where speed matters. 

 

Singletary would be the other candidate to go, based him being the most easily replaced of the lot.

 

Oliver, Knox, and Edmunds are all young, home-grown, and integral to the team, so they will get deals unless the numbers just can't possibly work. 

[PonyBoy]

1 hour ago, Rc2catch said:

I picked Oliver, Knox and Edmunds. 

2 are obvious, but Edmunds extension is priceless entertainment on here for years to come, can’t turn that down. 

Meant to select awesome! 

[mjt328]

Ed Oliver is pretty much a lock.  This regime clearly prioritizes the D-Line over other positions on the defense.  Right now, he's pretty underrated across the league.  But he is very likely on the verge of a break-out season (with extra blocking attention on Von Miller). 

 

Jordan Poyer was probably next on Beane's list for an extension.  Now I'm not so sure.  Over the last few weeks, Poyer's wife (Rachel Bush) has made their feelings very public.  They were not happy with Miller getting big bucks or Stephon Diggs getting prioritized on a new contract.  That may not go-over well with our front office.  Agent Drew Rosenhaus also has a reputation for trying to squeeze teams for every last cent, which may price him out of our services.

 

Dawson Knox will probably depend on market value.  His stats are clearly limited by this offense, since we have so many other weapons.  Will another team be willing to offer him a Top 5 contract for his position?  

 

Tremaine Edmunds is probably the odd-man out.  It's a combination of timing (when he becomes a free agent), and the high chance that his market FAR outpaces his actual value.  You can't re-sign everyone, and I could see Beane taking a chance with a mid-round linebacker (future replacement) as early as this draft.

 

Devon Singletary is an average running back, and very replaceable.  This team does not value the position very high either.  I think we draft someone on Day 2 this year, and don't see him getting a second contract.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Extend Oliver and Knox. Both players continue to get better and if you believe in signing your own guys these two deserve it.

Let Edmunds walk after this year. If he really steps it up a notch then tag him to make him prove it

I'd be fine with reworking Poyer's deal this year by adding a year and making this year salary a signing bonus. I think he can still play at a high level for 2 more years. I would not commit to him beyond 2023 through. They can get younger and cheaper at safety in the future.

Singletary is nothing special and I want no part of a RB on a second contract.

 

[Augie]

39 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed. It wont be long until teams will have $100M wrapped up in 3 guys. QB ($50M), WR1 ($30M), WR2 ($20M).

 

 

Throw in Edge, CB1 and LT, and you’d better be darn good at drafting everything else! 

 

.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Augie

[Buffalo_Stampede]

The thing about Poyer is why haven’t they extended him already? Final year, Defensive captain, All-pro, team leader.

 

 

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Definitely Poyer and Knox

 

i also voted Oliver but then saw the numbers. 15 million/year for a player that plays 58% of the snaps on defense is not ok. Same reason I didn’t want this team to draft a DT that high. Let’s see what Tim Settle can do with more playing time. 
 

Hard no on Edmunds. There’s a good chance a rookie is an upgrade over him. Give a young guy one year to learn and see how he does. Tag and trade Edmunds if possible. Other wise let the 2nd year player on rookie contract take over. 
 

People talking about age in the Edmunds vs Poyer debate need to realize there are plenty 24 year olds who aren’t good NFL middle linebackers, but only a handful of all pro safeties. 

[MiltonWaddams]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The thing about Poyer is why haven’t they extended him already? Final year, Defensive captain, All-pro, team leader.

 

 

 

The change of agent may speak volumes about that. He may have not seen sufficient headway made from his former representation. If he doesn't get it from Drew, he won't ever get it.

[roboticus]

2 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I picked Oliver, Knox and Edmunds. 

2 are obvious, but Edmunds extension is priceless entertainment on here for years to come, can’t turn that down. 

Bonus, he's so young it could be 6-8 years. 😱😅

[Warcodered]

 

[DrDawkinstein]

37 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Throw in Edge, CB1 and LT, and you’d better be darn good at drafting everything else! 

 

.

 

And right now we have 5 out of the 6 we listed (not WR2) under contract long term. Most on team friendly deals.

 

Magic Beane.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And right now we have 5 out of the 6 we listed (not WR2) under contract long term. Most on team friendly deals.

 

Magic Beane.

 

While Belichick has a LB, two TE’s and a couple so-so WR’s as his top 5 highest paid players.  He’s NOT a genius as a GM. 

[Ya Digg?]

58 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Ed Oliver is pretty much a lock.  This regime clearly prioritizes the D-Line over other positions on the defense.  Right now, he's pretty underrated across the league.  But he is very likely on the verge of a break-out season (with extra blocking attention on Von Miller). 

 

Jordan Poyer was probably next on Beane's list for an extension.  Now I'm not so sure.  Over the last few weeks, Poyer's wife (Rachel Bush) has made their feelings very public.  They were not happy with Miller getting big bucks or Stephon Diggs getting prioritized on a new contract.  That may not go-over well with our front office.  Agent Drew Rosenhaus also has a reputation for trying to squeeze teams for every last cent, which may price him out of our services.

 

Dawson Knox will probably depend on market value.  His stats are clearly limited by this offense, since we have so many other weapons.  Will another team be willing to offer him a Top 5 contract for his position?  

 

Tremaine Edmunds is probably the odd-man out.  It's a combination of timing (when he becomes a free agent), and the high chance that his market FAR outpaces his actual value.  You can't re-sign everyone, and I could see Beane taking a chance with a mid-round linebacker (future replacement) as early as this draft.

 

Devon Singletary is an average running back, and very replaceable.  This team does not value the position very high either.  I think we draft someone on Day 2 this year, and don't see him getting a second contract.

 

Did I miss something? I’ve seen this a couple of times lately on here but no one has said where they saw this