Spotrac has Levi Wallace valued @ $9M/yr. Thoughts?

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

That’s such an insulting offer that would never even get presented. 

It's more than double what he was making annually with 3 extra years on top. I wish my employer would insult me like that. 😂

 

All kidding aside I see your point. Some team will substantially overpay for his services and he's entitled to his payday. 

 

Just don't see it being Buffalo, at least not anything over 5 mil per.

[H2o]

Nope. Not spending $9M on Levi. Draft a replacement, look for a FA bargains to fill depth, and Dane can play #2 CB after getting some good experience this year as well. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

Wonder how much Patrick Peterson has left in the tank? He was coming off a one year deal I believe.

[GunnerBill]

I have done this twice today but again not sure I buy the comparisons that Spotrac has. Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and Michael Davies are all guys who can play man. Levi is a strictly zone only corner. 

 

Awuzie is a bit more of a fair comparator although he is more athletically gifted than Levi. He got $7.5m AAV. I think that is Levi's ceiling. Think he will get somewhere between $5m and $6.5m AAV personally.

[eSJayDee]

I saw in-season someone (sportac?) had him valued around $6m/yr.  I'd hope to get him for less than that, but in that ballpark.  How much did Johnson sign for?  I'd say he's worth a fair amount less than him.

Another factor is the salary cap amount.  Yes, it went up, but not significantly.  Maybe, if it's a multiple yr contract, it will escalate along w/ anticipated cap growth?

ie maybe 3 yrs, $5m bonus & $1m, $4m & $6m salaries at the low end, $8m, w/ $1m, $6m, $9m at the high end?  The latter works out to $8m/yr.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

It's more than double what he was making annually with 3 extra years on top. I wish my employer would insult me like that. 😂

 

All kidding aside I see your point. Some team will substantially overpay for his services and he's entitled to his payday. 

 

Just don't see it being Buffalo, at least not anything over 5 mil per.

The more I think about the more I’m not sure. He was a free agent last year and I don’t recall him having inch of a market. 
 

I could maybe see 2 years for 11 or 12ish mil.

[MJS]

He is absolutely worth that much. He had a great year. Last year was not indicative of anything because of the lowered cap. A lot of guys re-signed with their teams for the security and because there was not much money to go around.

 

Levi Wallace is a decent #2 cornerback. If the Bills don't pay him someone else will.

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have done this twice today but again not sure I buy the comparisons that Spotrac has. Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and Michael Davies are all guys who can play man. Levi is a strictly zone only corner. 

 

Awuzie is a bit more of a fair comparator although he is more athletically gifted than Levi. He got $7.5m AAV. I think that is Levi's ceiling. Think he will get somewhere between $5m and $6.5m AAV personally.

I think his floor is 7, personally. Someone is going to pay him. There are some teams with a lot of cap space this year. Last year with the lowered cap there was not a lot of money to go around.

 

There's always a chance he takes a discount to stay in Buffalo.

Edited February 6, 2022 by MJS

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MJS said:

I think his floor is 7, personally. Someone is going to pay him. There are some teams with a lot of cap space this year. Last year with the lowered cap there was not a lot of money to go around.

 

Until someone shows me the athletically limited, zone specific, corners getting that sort of money I will remain sceptical. And I have always been a fan if Levi and have defended him on this forum and he had his best year as a pro in 2021, no question at all. It is just that his skill set isn't one that generally incentivises teams to part with bigger money deals. I think $7.5m is his ceiling and I think he comes in a bit below that. 

[Mark92]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

He is absolutely worth that much. He had a great year. Last year was not indicative of anything because of the lowered cap. A lot of guys re-signed with their teams for the security and because there was not much money to go around.

 

Levi Wallace is a decent #2 cornerback. If the Bills don't pay him someone else will.

For a team in Buffalo's situation 9 mil is way too much.  I agree that he is good and I would love to have him back.  He kept the back end chugging the second half of the season.  But..... With limited cap space and being so damn close to a Super Bowl the bills can not and will not keep him at that price.  I think CB in Rd 1 is very likely given this estimate from Sportrac and the fact we don't know how or when White will return.  If one of the top 3 Corners is there it's a no brainer for the value and price.  

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

 

it’s likely that BPA in Rd. 1 is a CB.  I just want BPA.  We could upgrade/add to most positions.  Need a day 1 impact player. 

[bubba2018]

For 9m no. Appreciate his hard work but he’s walking for that much.

[thenorthremembers]

2 hours ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

Its very accurate.   Measureables aside he is a starting corner in the NFL and has been shown to be reliable, smart and hard to replace.

 

Granted he isnt a man cover corner but he is for sure a 8 to 9 million dollar a year guy.

[NewEra]

No chance we pay Levi 9M.  If we’re going to pay a corner 9M I hope that corner has better wheels.  
 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-cornerbacks

not that pff, is that great, but they listed 18 free agent corners.  Levi not even mentioned.

 

I’m thinking 5M aav is fair for both sides.  Part of the reason we played a prevent with 13 secs is Levi’s lack of speed. I have no doubts 

[Buffalo716]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have done this twice today but again not sure I buy the comparisons that Spotrac has. Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and Michael Davies are all guys who can play man. Levi is a strictly zone only corner. 

 

Awuzie is a bit more of a fair comparator although he is more athletically gifted than Levi. He got $7.5m AAV. I think that is Levi's ceiling. Think he will get somewhere between $5m and $6.5m AAV personally.

To his defense Levi absolutely improved his man coverage this year 

 

I think he's squarely a top 40 corner in the league 

 

I wouldn't pay him 9 mil but he vastly improved his ability to mirror guys in man coverage.. he is 10x better than a few years ago

[billieve420]

Bye Levi nice knowing you.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

To his defense Levi absolutely improved his man coverage this year 

 

I think he's squarely a top 40 corner in the league 

 

I wouldn't pay him 9 mil but he vastly improved his ability to mirror guys in man coverage.. he is 10x better than a few years ago

 

I agree he has improved but I still don't think he is a guy you can take in a scheme that is more hybrid or man coverage heavy. If it is a zone scheme that mixes the odd man look in, sure those teams will be looking at him. That is more what I see Awuzie as. But he is naturally more athletically skilled than Levi (though there is an argument Levi has the more consistent NFL tape). 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Special K said:

I don’t see the Bills spending that much to keep him....his replacement will likely come in the draft.

We've seen the last of Levi.  I'm almost 100% sure we draft Tre's counterpart @ 25. Wallace was commendable yet usually unspectacular. He's worth no more than 4-5M and that's generous. Of course the same could be said for Edmunds. 

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree he has improved but I still don't think he is a guy you can take in a scheme that is more hybrid or man coverage heavy. If it is a zone scheme that mixes the odd man look in, sure those teams will be looking at him. That is more what I see Awuzie as. But he is naturally more athletically skilled than Levi (though there is an argument Levi has the more consistent NFL tape). 

Agree

[FarrellsFinest]

Sounds about right for a starting CB. We should net a few comp picks next year

[BringBackFlutie]

4.63s for a corner?  Lol.  McD really is a CB whisperer.

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

I hope he gets a good sized deal with some guaranteed $$$, although I would love to have him back on another team friendly deal. Levi has been a great and often glossed over find by Beane.

UDFA who has over performed his contract every season, what more can you ask from a guy?  Didn't really notice the lack of Tre's presence on the field until the Divisional round... whether or not getting to play Mac Jones a bunch, Zach Wilson, and Matt Ryan contributed to that success is up to his agent to gloss over...

 

Body of work shows to me he is a solid #2 CB, and somebody will pay for that, putting extra stock in the fact he started on a defense that lost Tre White and still only surrendered Twelve passing TDs, in the first extended 17 game regular season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

To his defense Levi absolutely improved his man coverage this year 

 

I think he's squarely a top 40 corner in the league 

 

I wouldn't pay him 9 mil but he vastly improved his ability to mirror guys in man coverage.. he is 10x better than a few years ago

 

So slotting Wallace in at  $9M AAV right now puts him as a top-20 corner in the league

 

Different position, but worth talking about as a clue to how the Bills might value Wallace:

 

The Bills just signed Taron Johnson to a 3 year, $24M contract, $8M AAV.  $13.7M guaranteed, $4M signing bonus. 

Like a lot of these contracts, it's back-loaded with his cap hit going from $2.4M this past season, to $4.5M in 2022, to $9.2 and then $10.2 in '23 and '24.

 

For comparison, it's worth looking at how it's structured and what's guaranteed

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/

 

So if the Bills valued Taron Johnson at $8M yr/3 years, with about half of that guaranteed, is it a huge stretch to value Levi Wallace at $28.8M ($9.6M/yr)?

 

One point is to always look at the contract structure and the guarantees.  Someone could offer Wallace a $30M 3 yr contract, but how much is up front, and how much is guaranteed?

[Orlando Tim]

I think he is definitely a system DB but if someone is gonna offer him a4 year deal for 35 million he should take it.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

Dane Jackson is up and coming.
I have been a big fan of Levi for many reasons. I even defend him. He keeps improving his game slowly but steadily and I would be happy if Bills found a way that works for both !
Hope we can keep him or he finds a nice payday somewhere. he has earned it
 CB should come through the draft for Bills as long as we have Tre healthy.
But rookie corners are going to get attacked right away. so i prefer Bills do like they have with Dane. and develop him behind the Pro's
ps we need to find poyer and hydes replacement if we are thinking DBs more than Levi they gettin old

 Go Bills
 

[ProcessTruster]

4 hours ago, Special K said:

I don’t see the Bills spending that much to keep him....his replacement will likely come in the draft.

yeah good for him , but let someone else pay him.   McD needs to start getting aggressive on D and I think he knows it.  

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Wallace will get a decent contract somewhere but I doubt the Bills will be into him for $9M.  As far as drafting a first round corner, this may be the time. The new guy could replace Wallace and eventually become the CB1.  I can picture Beane wanting to time out the end of the next rookie corner's first contract to coincide with the eventual end of White's time as a highly paid corner in Buffalo.  As sad as that sounds, corners have a shelf life and good teams move on before they are overpaying for diminished skills.  Much of this will depend on having the right player available at pick 25.

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

I hope he gets a good sized deal with some guaranteed $$$, although I would love to have him back on another team friendly deal. Levi has been a great and often glossed over find by Beane.

UDFA who has over performed his contract every season, what more can you ask from a guy?  Didn't really notice the lack of Tre's presence on the field until the Divisional round... whether or not getting to play Mac Jones a bunch, Zach Wilson, and Matt Ryan contributed to that success is up to his agent to gloss over...

 

Body of work shows to me he is a solid #2 CB, and somebody will pay for that, putting extra stock in the fact he started on a defense that lost Tre White and still only surrendered Twelve passing TDs, in the first extended 17 game regular season.

they were stoned….

[Virgil]

I hate to say it, but pay him. With Tre out through October, we need some consistency moreso than just Jackson.  
 

However I think he’ll get more than 9 mil from somewhere else

[That's No Moon]

[Ross Murdock]

Who knows if Spotrac has any credibility. But if they are reasonably accurate.....  Goodbye. This years draft is loaded with CB's..  

[Mr. WEO]

At 9 mill to the Bills, its adios, good luck.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Dane Jackson is up and coming.
I have been a big fan of Levi for many reasons. I even defend him. He keeps improving his game slowly but steadily and I would be happy if Bills found a way that works for both !
Hope we can keep him or he finds a nice payday somewhere. he has earned it
 CB should come through the draft for Bills as long as we have Tre healthy.
But rookie corners are going to get attacked right away. so i prefer Bills do like they have with Dane. and develop him behind the Pro's
ps we need to find poyer and hydes replacement if we are thinking DBs more than Levi they gettin old

 Go Bills
 

I’m good with Dane Jackson as inexpensive depth.  I don’t want to go into a season depending on him to be a starter, not by a long shot.

 

I’d like to see us both sign and draft a CB.  Tre is by no means a lock to be ready at the start of the season or to be counted on to round back into form in 2022.  In any event we won’t know whether or not that is the case until after FA and the draft.  The Bills have to proceed as if he won’t be ready.  Something like a one year deal for a vet towards the end of his career would be a good move. 
 

Agree on a safety.  I think we should’ve been looking for one before now.  Siran Neal was not that good of a player.  I want to see him replaced by one or two developmental guys.  Depth there has been poor. 

Edited February 7, 2022 by BarleyNY

[John from Riverside]

Dean Jackson basically is Levi Wallace do not pay $9 million for a Wallace level player

[vincec]

5 hours ago, Bangarang said:

That’s such an insulting offer that would never even get presented. 

I wish someone would insult me like that. lol.

 

I mean, how much better is he really than Dane Jackson anyway? Just draft a new CB or bring in a FA to compete with Jackson for the spot opposite Tre.

Edited February 6, 2022 by vincec

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So slotting Wallace in at  $9M AAV right now puts him as a top-20 corner in the league

 

Different position, but worth talking about as a clue to how the Bills might value Wallace:

 

The Bills just signed Taron Johnson to a 3 year, $24M contract, $8M AAV.  $13.7M guaranteed, $4M signing bonus. 

Like a lot of these contracts, it's back-loaded with his cap hit going from $2.4M this past season, to $4.5M in 2022, to $9.2 and then $10.2 in '23 and '24.

 

For comparison, it's worth looking at how it's structured and what's guaranteed

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/

 

So if the Bills valued Taron Johnson at $8M yr/3 years, with about half of that guaranteed, is it a huge stretch to value Levi Wallace at $28.8M ($9.6M/yr)?

 

One point is to always look at the contract structure and the guarantees.  Someone could offer Wallace a $30M 3 yr contract, but how much is up front, and how much is guaranteed?

Those are all fair questions.. it's up to the bills to decide what they think he's worth

 

McDermott has talked about in the past how it takes three players to replace Johnson when he goes down... Because of all the aspects of his game... As a former defensive back I can see how versatile he is ..

 

His ability to tackle off the edge.. and blitz.. his ability to tackle the receiver and allow minimum yac... And play Sean's combination coverages make him probably more valuable than Levi 

 

And it's tough to have all that money tied up in the secondary

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, vincec said:

I wish someone would insult me like that. lol.

 

I mean, how much better is he really than Dane Jackson anyway? Just draft a new QB or bring in a FA to compete with Jackson for the spot opposite Tre.

He’s a lot better than Dane Jackson in every way

[SoCal Deek]

I’m going to trust Beane on this one. With his franchise QB locked in, Beane’s going to earn his GM money for sure over the next few years. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah good for him , but let someone else pay him.   McD needs to start getting aggressive on D and I think he knows it.  

So true.  He needs more speed and aggressive structure for his defense. A little less zone and a better pass rush would do wonders.

[Saint Doug]

6 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean the difference between that year and this one is White went down and Levi had to fill in at CB1 and the defense didn't seem to have a huge drop off.

…until it counted. We can’t let that happen again.