Steptide Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 a fair point. Although I like the ability to score at the end of the first half, and then to open the second half. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Seems to me the Bills would have a better chance with an immediate lead so I endorse this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 It is a consideration, but the new doctrine is to try for the double dip starting the 2nd half, will Sean buck the trend? Go Bills!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I would support the idea this game. Our defense (most defenses) are generally bad that first scripted drive. I would prefer to try and grab the lead first and gain some momentum. Put a little pressure on Baltimore if we score first. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 No, I like scoring at half and coming out with the ball. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WickedGame Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Both are a gamble. Ordinarily, I like the double dip strategy. However, for this game I like the idea of building the lead early and often. Preach to the team that a Ravens possession at the end of the first half is a “for the win” possession, not a “Oh well, they scored” concession, and maybe we steal a point opportunity away from them. I will say, I like this coaching staff’s ability to make halftime adjustments much better than I’ve liked any previous coaching staff’s abilities in that department. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I don’t subscribe if we win to next week, or the SB, dare I say it, but I’ve said twice. Now in other threads, absolutely this week. Making leaps, the Chiefs can come back, and so can who potentially would be the SB opponent, but the Ravens are so much better with the lead. I’d love to put them on their heals up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston's #1 Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Well, 3rd quarter used to SUCK! But, we've seemed to have fixed that. So, let's keeping doing what works (I'm not really sure what that is, but let's do it anyways!) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I remember Dick Jauron always used to defer... and the fans HATED IT. so yea, let’s stop deferring. Don’t be like Dick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I like to score at the end of the half and get the ball, especially in the playoffs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETTOTHE50 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) Why does everyone think it’s a guarantee that the bills will have the final possession of the half? Whether they do or not has nothing to do with the coin toss decision. I think it’s always better to receive first and to get the offense in rhythm. It also helps to see how the defense is planning so you can adjust for subsequent drives. its also a helluva lot better to play ahead. Putting the offense on the field first helps achieve that much more quickly than the defense. Edited January 13, 2021 by GETTOTHE50 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brueggs Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said: Why does everyone think it’s a guarantee that the bills will have the final possession of the half? Whether they do or not has nothing to do with the coin toss decision. I think it’s always better to receive first and to get the offense in rhythm. It also helps to see how the defense is planning so you can adjust for subsequent drives. its also a helluva lot better to play ahead. Putting the offense on the field first helps achieve that much more quickly than the defense. I don't think anyone thinks its a guarantee, but its no coincidence that deferring is a standard procedure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penfield45 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 No, because a few times this season opponents come out after the half and drive the ball right down the field I feel more comfortable getting the ball after halftime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 This weekend I'd take the ball. Most weeks I'd defer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, Brueggs said: I don't think anyone thinks its a guarantee, but its no coincidence that deferring is a standard procedure. Yup, and it makes sense. We score more in the second half than the first. Probably because we better know what the defense is doing. Possessions in the second half are worth more to us. More, which is a stronger psychological statement: the first half is ours, or the the second half is ours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PonyBoy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Steptide said: I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought VERY good thread to start! I like the possible double dip, but the offense is considerably better than the D. Hmmm? 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Typically I like to kick and get the ball back at the half. As no matter what if you are winning or losing you always want the ball to start the next half. If you are winning you want to build on your lead, if you are down you want to have the ball to start a comeback. So no matter what the situation you want the ball to start the second half. However, with the Bills high flying offense I don't necessarily mind them puting the offense out to start the game. Mainly because the Bills defense is much better when it can pin back and force an offense to pass. The pass rush is better when they aren't being run on and the secondary plays better when things are one dimensional. The best way to force any team to become a one dimensional passing offense is to get out early on them. And when you put up 7 on the opening drive like the Bills have been able to do a lot times it sets the tone and it might be worth forfeiting the ball to start the second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I think it is far better to receive the ball in the 2nd half, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 There have been a number of analysis done on defer vs receive. The below analysis says that receiving the ball in the 2nd half results in an extra point on average plus a 12% chance of "stealing" a possession. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/#:~:text=Deciding whether to receive or,of games on the margins.&text=A lot of factors play,half when given the chance. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Steptide said: I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought Stats would help support this, list which games the Bills received vs kicked to start and what the score was after the first and second quarter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia Bill Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 No, because the deeper you get into the playoffs the more amped up everyone is at the beginning of the game. So you often see 3 and outs or maybe 1 first down then a 3 and out - on both teams - due to the defense being so jacked up and the offense prone to a few erratic passes. I think the odds of going on a nice sustained scoring drive are better coming out of the half when everybody's calmed down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hebert19 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Steptide said: I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought Against a team like ravens. Yes. Take the ball and try and play with a lead to prevent them from doing what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, prissythecat said: There have been a number of analysis done on defer vs receive. The below analysis says that receiving the ball in the 2nd half results in an extra point on average plus a 12% chance of "stealing" a possession. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/#:~:text=Deciding whether to receive or,of games on the margins.&text=A lot of factors play,half when given the chance. Having the lead at the half with Buffalo receiving the 2nd half kick off also may take the opposition out of what it does best. Shifting more to throwing the football vs run by way of example. Playing more to Buffalo's strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steptide Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 36 minutes ago, mattynh said: Stats would help support this, list which games the Bills received vs kicked to start and what the score was after the first and second quarter... I wouldn't even know where to get these stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 You score near the end of the 1st half and get the ball to start the 2nd it can be a real momentum builder. Last week we scored 10 points using that strtegy. There also can be about an hour (in real time) where the opposing offense doesn't get the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 All i know is last week was brutal. I think we kicked off, Colts ball controlled it, eating up several minutes,,,then pinned us deep on the punt. That set the Bills up for what seemed like poor field position the entire half. Even when we kicked off after the TD, Indy had a great return, and were at midfield again in about 2 plays. What a frustrating half that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Red King Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I prefer getting the second half kickoff. * If you are winning, you can extend the lead * If you are tied you can take the lead * If you are losing, you get an immediate chance to close the gap If you kick off in the second half you have to immediately... * If you are winning, you have to try and keep your opponent from coming back * If you are tied, you have to try and keep them from gaining the lead * If you are losing, you have to try and stop them from making the deficit even worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 hours ago, Don Otreply said: It is a consideration, but the new doctrine is to try for the double dip starting the 2nd half, will Sean buck the trend? Go Bills!!! Belichick would always try to score right before half and then turn around and score again to start the 3rd. It's still a good strategy if you have a top 10 defense. Problem is our defense has holes as we saw last week struggling to get off the field. I'd take the ball to start the game. Get up 7-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hebert19 said: Against a team like ravens. Yes. Take the ball and try and play with a lead to prevent them from doing what they do. The Titans went up 10-0 on the Ravens and it did not “prevent them from doing what they do”. Whereas the Bills stopping the Colts at the goal line and taking it down for a TD just before the half, and then getting a FG to open the second half meant a 17 point swing that was the turning point in the game. Defer always. Edited January 14, 2021 by WotAGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 If you go out and put them down 7-0, genius. If you go 3 and out, fool. Take the ball in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 No I like getting it @ the half, but they should tell Andre Roberts to keep his ass in the enzone for a touchback if the kickoff is beyond a yard deep in the enzone........especially if its kicked directionally to one side of the field. Those kickoff returns to the 15 yard line with the chance of an injury or holding penalty to back you up even further are not only infuriating, but they're unforced errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codyny13 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It puts a lot of emphasis and pressure on that first drive though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It all depends. If you have a windy day, defer so you can get the wind in the 4th quarter. All else being equal, I take the rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVilanch Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just make sure you don't say "We want the ball, we're going to score" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said: This weekend I'd take the ball. Most weeks I'd defer. I agree GB. I like to defer, unfortunately I've noticed the last couple of times we've deferred the opposition has been able to drive deep enough against our D to the point that if/when they punt they pin us deep. This starts a cycle of bad starting position if the Offense struggles to get started. I'd accept and hope to score early and force Baltimore to hold serve. Worst case pin them deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 hours ago, HOUSE said: Seems to me the Bills would have a better chance with an immediate lead so I endorse this thread I’ve always thought that way, especially in road games and against the Patriots. How many games vs New England did they get the kickoff and March down and score and the Bills never threatened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Yes. Starting with our weakest unit is bad strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Absolutely not. The double dip is worth a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts