Status of AFC: Should Bills Go All In For 2019?

[jwhit34]

Given:

• The AFC looks very middling except for New England and KC and the Bills played NE tough and KC looked a little vulnerable vs. Indy.
• The Bills have a favorable schedule.
• The defense looks like it could be elite/championship caliber.
• They have most of their key players under contract through 2020 (Alexander probably retires, only starters not signed for '20 are Levi Wallace, Quinton Spain, Frank Gore, key subs not under contract are Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips)
• The team is in a favorable cap situation in '20

 

Is there enough of a chance to go for it for 2019 by giving up some future assets (draft picks) to get 2-3 players to help them contend this year or is 2020 the year to go for it? Do they have enough to get Trent Williams and a top notch WR (Diggs or Green)? 

 

Would they/you be willing to part with to get two high end players for the offense? 

 

Green would be a rental for 11 games and has a $12.1 salary component so pro-rated he would cost about $8 million on the cap. Trent Williams is $11 million salary so would count about $7.3 million on the cap.

 

Would Cincy take a 3rd and a player for Green (Foster or Zay)?

Would Washington take a 2nd and a player (Foster or Zay - whoever Cincy doesn't take)?

 

Would they be willing to trade both picks? Would the addition of both players be enough to make the offense top 10? 

 

I think 2020 roster looks great but they will play the NFC West and AFC West and the 2nd place teams from AFC North and South, so the schedule will be tougher. 

 

Getting two players like that, then getting SIngletary back from injury and maybe even Kroft is a real boost and could make a big difference. 

 

 

 

[Locomark]

I am all in for 2019. I think you only get so many shots and this year NE’s offense is suspect for once. So if we can get more weapons we can outscore them because they are afraid of our defense. KC showed they aren’t tough but again we will need to score more. Be bold in 2019. I go for Diggs because of age/contract and then Green if you can’t get Diggs. 

Williams is unlikely because they want 1st rounder(s). None of these players are worth that to our front office IMO. 

I would also look for pass rush help. We need more outside youth and speed. With Zo leaving, Jerry getting old, Murphy being average and injured often, and Shaq not being a speed rush guy, we need an outside speed presence besides Jerry. I would prioritize that over OT. Von Miller isn’t happening because of his age and the amount of assets it would take. 

[PUNT750]

I think we're already all in for 2019!  The key is Josh's play and that's it!

[dma0034]

This is a learning year. Next year they'll be contenders. I fully expect them to lose to the Chiefs or Patriots in the playoffs close and come back and dominate next year

[Mountain Man]

I want absolutely nothing to do with Green, the guy's body is breaking. 

 

And no I don't want all in either. We're more than a WR away anyway 

[John from Riverside]

19 minutes ago, PUNT750 said:

I think we're already all in for 2019!  The key is Josh's play and that's it!

There are things we could do to make this team better

3 minutes ago, Mountain Man said:

I want absolutely nothing to do with Green, the guy's body is breaking. 

 

And no I don't want all in either. We're more than a WR away anyway 

We actually dont know that.....we are what our record says we are

[ColdFront_USAF]

I could be wrong, but I don't expect any serious flashy additions this year unless the price is really good. As I've said before, Beane is on record saying a team is never "one player away", so I don't expect him to make a move that will heavily impact our future drafts. I also doubt Zay's trade value. He has done next to nothing this year and got out performed today by a practice squad callup in his first ever NFL game, which leads me to believe most other teams won't value him very high. 

 

As others have said, I think this year is meant to be our adjustment period now that we finally have a team that's built in McBeanes image. Most seem to forget that Allen was supposed to sit at least one full season before starting, so he's still learning on the fly. Today was his 16th start, so he basically has one season experience and one real offseason of development (his rookie year doesn't really count as he mostly played 3rd string in TC/preseason). I think we make the playoffs this year, and lose to one of the powerhouses in NE and KC. Another year of solid drafting from BB, re-signing the guys that they want to stick around, and putting our cap space to use in free agency, and I think we'll be ready to compete for the AFC title in 2020.  

[rayray808]

if itʻs a steal deal... yes, make moves

 

but we are not desperate...

 

moves I would make if we are talking about dangling a first round pick:

 

1) Von Miller - would make our defense LIGHTS OUT

2) Stephon Diggs - a true WR1... brown goes to 2, beasley at slot, Duke at the 3

3) Melvin Gordon - yes we have Singletary but this dude would be the perfect compliment to Gore

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

No need to give up assets for damaged players. We have the players we need just need more time gelling on offense as most of those guys are in there first year with the team.

 

 

[cage]

This a very good topic for the bye week as the NFL has now become a much more activity trading league.  The trade deadline will see the lower rung teams dumping players for draft picks like we've seen for years in the other major sports.  The article below shows several teams that gearing up for a big run.  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-chiefs-ravens-saints-eagles-seahawks-among-teams-already-laying-groundwork-for-frenzied-trade-deadline/

 

Where do the Bills fit into that is the question that I'm sure they'll be talking about this week.  I love the way they built this team from the ground up and this new trading trend kind of flies in the face of that.  Plus Beane got burned on Kelvin Benjamin trade two years ago in a similar situation.

 

If they're going to make a move, I'd love to see them get Geno Atkins from Bengals (sending Peko back to PS for this year).  I'd also like to see us get a better 3rd RB.  I'm mixed on Yeldon and Gore will need more help as the season progresses.  I don't think I would trade for Gordon, so it would have to be someone else.  Maybe Drake or Bellage from the Dolphins?  Von Miller would be amazing, but the price would be pretty high, I imagine.  

Edited October 7, 2019 by cage

[GunnerBill]

No stupid short term moves - which means no to Trent Williams and no to AJ Green. If Diggs came loose at a sensible price I would do that one but the Bills just have to stay the course. We should not be building a one hit wonder. Let's build this to be good for a 5, 6, 7 year run.

[QCity]

Absolutely not.

[Pbomb]

1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

if itʻs a steal deal... yes, make moves

 

but we are not desperate...

 

moves I would make if we are talking about dangling a first round pick:

 

1) Von Miller - would make our defense LIGHTS OUT

2) Stephon Diggs - a true WR1... brown goes to 2, beasley at slot, Duke at the 3

3) Melvin Gordon - yes we have Singletary but this dude would be the perfect compliment to Gore

You would trade a first for Gordon? He has been average his whole career , did nothing yesterday and wants a big contract. Ekelar is better, and I’m pretty sure singletary is too 

[njbuff]

I'd be surprised if the Bills gave up draft assets for damaged players this year.

 

They can get the brass ring with what they have and they can keep all their draft assets for 2020, which is a strong draft class.

 

Nothing wrong with going for a championship and continuing building for your future. It is allowed you know. ?

 

We are on to Miami. ?

Edited October 7, 2019 by njbuff

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Great chance to make the playoffs and maybe win a playoff game this year. We don’t need to make any drastic moves that effect our future.

 

We’re slightly ahead of schedule 

[CSBill]

Of the people we know who are available (well, at least rumored to be), Diggs is the only one I would seriously consider. Another strong receiver would be a bonus.

 

I would never trade for a Running Back, remember, we let one of the all-time greats walk before the season started. Why? Because the ROI for backs is never high, there are serviceable people out there on Practice Squads and even street free agents. Either can be had relatively cheaply.

 

As for Trent Williams, it appears the price is too high, but that could change. I do think, however, if the injuries are serious to Ford and Morse, they may make some kind of move here. The wild card in this is Bates. We know Long is a capable starter--he has proven value. But Bates seems to be the steal of off-season. Somehow Beane had him targeted, pulled it off, and by all accounts, that appears to be a brilliant pick-up. If it turns out he has to play regularly, it is even better. Having another starting  quality o-lineman would be a bonus.

 

Which brings me back to WR. I'm still not sure what we have here. Foster is the enigma right now. He showed great potential last year, but injuries have hampered him this season. I love the Duke story, and what we saw from him yesterday is what he will bring--a good possession guy who will not out-run anyone, just out muscle them--which is good. We seem to be missing one more capable person. I'm sure they thought that Zay, maybe Foster, would be that third wheel, but this is a meritocracy business and you have to produce in games, neither has. So, if (and that's a big "If") the Bills do anything big, I think its in the WR position--that is the one place an immediate impact could be a difference maker.

 

Edited October 7, 2019 by CSBill

[auburnbillsbacker]

This team should model itself after the Patriots.  The Patriots are all about sustainability.  They would never make a bad trade to to achieve a short term gain.  That doesnt mean you can't make a trade.  You just can't mortgage the future on rentals when you wont be getting compensatory picks when they leave.  We will sign too many players next off season to get compensated.  

Edited October 7, 2019 by auburnbillsbacker

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

I want absolutely nothing to do with Green, the guy's body is breaking. 

 

And no I don't want all in either. We're more than a WR away anyway 

Part a - agree

 

Part B - eh- this team has talent all over

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

No stupid short term moves - which means no to Trent Williams and no to AJ Green. If Diggs came loose at a sensible price I would do that one but the Bills just have to stay the course. We should not be building a one hit wonder. Let's build this to be good for a 5, 6, 7 year run.

 

 

Perfect - I am in for someone that can be a part of the team going forward and will not disrupt the chemistry.

 

I want no part of guys like AJ Green or Trent Williams that although they will help this year - they have no long term value to sustainable success.

 

This is where the Sabres were a few years ago and GM Murray started trading assets for short term talent and destroyed both a young, up and coming core and long term depth.

 

Be patient and let them continue to grow.

[machine gun kelly]

Digs would be my only yes vote at the right price.  I don’t see Spielman going for it as Zimmer might not last, and as mentioned above Diggs is only 25.  Foster should heal up over the next two weeks so not a must we have to get Diggs, and Williams had a nice coming out party yesterday.

 

The line will heal and we have depth.  If Nseke comes back, we can place Ford back at RG, and move Feliciano at LG.  He is better than Spain.

 

My only concerns are the Eagles, Cowboys, and of course the Pats.  We could be as high as 12-4 or at least 11-5.  The Eagles secondary is beaten up, and they come to our house after healing up on a bye, and a beat down in Buffalo to the Fish.

 

Go Bills!!!

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

This team should model itself after the Patriots.  The Patriots are all about sustainability.  They would never make a bad trade to to achieve a short term gain.  That doesnt mean you can't make a trade.  You just can't mortgage the future on rentals when you wont be getting compensatory picks when they leave.  We will sign too many players next off season to get compensated.  

 

 

The reality is that the Patriots have made a living off making trades for guys like AJ Green and Trent Williams, but only at their price.

 

They trade for an AJ Green - use him up even more - let him walk for comp picks that replace or improve on what you gave up for him.

 

The Pats though are at a different point in the success curve and can afford that because the core team is so strong.  The Bills are not there yet and even comp picks right now do not balance the ask.  In a few weeks if AJ Greens asking price drops to a 4th or a 5th then it is right in the Pats wheel house because he will sign a large contract returning a 3rd or 4th down the road.

[Punching Bag]

Bills need to look closely at PS depth on other teams.  Find a team with depth where a player is not playing because of that depth not player's skills.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Please look at the success of last year's draft and even the previous year's draft.  I love that the Bills identify players that they want and use extra draft picks to move up and get them. Our starting MLB, OT/OG(?), TE, RB, and QB were all obtained this way.   I think we should not trade away our first 3 round picks (because they are used to get starters), NOR even later round picks, (because they are used to sweeten these early picks up a couple of notches to get the player we want.)  We have enough depth now and with a bye week we should heal up and be at full strength.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,  "

[Fixxxer]

Given that the Redskins are in complete disarray I would inquire if they would part ways with Ryan Kerrigan. The guy has been a very productive player for the Skins and he would fit perfectly with the Bills.

 

I'm trying to open the spotrac page to see his cap numbers but the page doesn't work.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Given:

• The AFC looks very middling except for New England and KC and the Bills played NE tough and KC looked a little vulnerable vs. Indy.
• The Bills have a favorable schedule.
• The defense looks like it could be elite/championship caliber.
• They have most of their key players under contract through 2020 (Alexander probably retires, only starters not signed for '20 are Levi Wallace, Quinton Spain, Frank Gore, key subs not under contract are Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips)
• The team is in a favorable cap situation in '20

 

Is there enough of a chance to go for it for 2019 by giving up some future assets (draft picks) to get 2-3 players to help them contend this year or is 2020 the year to go for it? Do they have enough to get Trent Williams and a top notch WR (Diggs or Green)? 

 

Would they/you be willing to part with to get two high end players for the offense? 

 

Green would be a rental for 11 games and has a $12.1 salary component so pro-rated he would cost about $8 million on the cap. Trent Williams is $11 million salary so would count about $7.3 million on the cap.

 

Would Cincy take a 3rd and a player for Green (Foster or Zay)?

Would Washington take a 2nd and a player (Foster or Zay - whoever Cincy doesn't take)?

 

Would they be willing to trade both picks? Would the addition of both players be enough to make the offense top 10? 

 

I think 2020 roster looks great but they will play the NFC West and AFC West and the 2nd place teams from AFC North and South, so the schedule will be tougher. 

 

Getting two players like that, then getting SIngletary back from injury and maybe even Kroft is a real boost and could make a big difference.

 

I think the philosophy McDermott and then Beane sold to the Pegulas was to try to build a perennial contender. 

Given that philosophy, I think you can expect to see a deal or deals only if it makes sense from that perspective.

 

I don't think you will see them giving up significant future assets or key players to fill in a spot this year.

17 minutes ago, Fixxxer said:

Given that the Redskins are in complete disarray I would inquire if they would part ways with Ryan Kerrigan. The guy has been a very productive player for the Skins and he would fit perfectly with the Bills.

 

I'm trying to open the spotrac page to see his cap numbers but the page doesn't work.

 

 

Try Over the Cap:

https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-kerrigan/1462/

[Punching Bag]

20 minutes ago, Fixxxer said:

Given that the Redskins are in complete disarray I would inquire if they would part ways with Ryan Kerrigan. The guy has been a very productive player for the Skins and he would fit perfectly with the Bills.

 

I'm trying to open the spotrac page to see his cap numbers but the page doesn't work.

 

I used overthecap instead.
https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-kerrigan/1462/

2019	31	$10,500,000	$3,200,000	$250,000		$0		$13,950,000	7.4%		$3,200,000	$10,750,000
2020	32	$11,500,000	$0	$250,000		$0		$11,750,000	5.9%		$0	$11,750,000

[ALLEN1QB]

So what you're saying is Buffalo needs to sign Antonio Brown?

[BuffaloBill]

5 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Given:

• The AFC looks very middling except for New England and KC and the Bills played NE tough and KC looked a little vulnerable vs. Indy.
• The Bills have a favorable schedule.
• The defense looks like it could be elite/championship caliber.
• They have most of their key players under contract through 2020 (Alexander probably retires, only starters not signed for '20 are Levi Wallace, Quinton Spain, Frank Gore, key subs not under contract are Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips)
• The team is in a favorable cap situation in '20

 

Is there enough of a chance to go for it for 2019 by giving up some future assets (draft picks) to get 2-3 players to help them contend this year or is 2020 the year to go for it? Do they have enough to get Trent Williams and a top notch WR (Diggs or Green)? 

 

Would they/you be willing to part with to get two high end players for the offense? 

 

Green would be a rental for 11 games and has a $12.1 salary component so pro-rated he would cost about $8 million on the cap. Trent Williams is $11 million salary so would count about $7.3 million on the cap.

 

Would Cincy take a 3rd and a player for Green (Foster or Zay)?

Would Washington take a 2nd and a player (Foster or Zay - whoever Cincy doesn't take)?

 

Would they be willing to trade both picks? Would the addition of both players be enough to make the offense top 10? 

 

I think 2020 roster looks great but they will play the NFC West and AFC West and the 2nd place teams from AFC North and South, so the schedule will be tougher. 

 

Getting two players like that, then getting SIngletary back from injury and maybe even Kroft is a real boost and could make a big difference. 

 

 

 

 

 

I do not see Beane and McDerrmott handling the team this way.  What is key is the continued maturation of Josh Allen and then the general health of the team.  They have lost Horrible Harry so far but have otherwise been somewhat OK on the injury front.  

[r00tabaga]

Trent Williams would be nice. 

WR and RB i'm fine with....

[CaptnCoke11]

Adding a WR halfway through the season isn’t a guarantee it will even work out.  Takes a while to get into the offense.  I’d imagine they will stand par on their roster now or just tweak the bottom half of it some.  

[loyal2dagame]

I'd stay away from selling tomorrow to win today through trading picks, depth players,  ect.  This team is being built the right way to sustain long term winning. We are on the verge of being able to draft the best player available year after year rather than drafting for need.  Let's not screw that up. 

[CLTbills]

6 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Given:

• The AFC looks very middling except for New England and KC and the Bills played NE tough and KC looked a little vulnerable vs. Indy.
• The Bills have a favorable schedule.
• The defense looks like it could be elite/championship caliber.
• They have most of their key players under contract through 2020 (Alexander probably retires, only starters not signed for '20 are Levi Wallace, Quinton Spain, Frank Gore, key subs not under contract are Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips)
• The team is in a favorable cap situation in '20

 

Is there enough of a chance to go for it for 2019 by giving up some future assets (draft picks) to get 2-3 players to help them contend this year or is 2020 the year to go for it? Do they have enough to get Trent Williams and a top notch WR (Diggs or Green)? 

 

Would they/you be willing to part with to get two high end players for the offense? 

 

Green would be a rental for 11 games and has a $12.1 salary component so pro-rated he would cost about $8 million on the cap. Trent Williams is $11 million salary so would count about $7.3 million on the cap.

 

Would Cincy take a 3rd and a player for Green (Foster or Zay)?

Would Washington take a 2nd and a player (Foster or Zay - whoever Cincy doesn't take)?

 

Would they be willing to trade both picks? Would the addition of both players be enough to make the offense top 10? 

 

I think 2020 roster looks great but they will play the NFC West and AFC West and the 2nd place teams from AFC North and South, so the schedule will be tougher. 

 

Getting two players like that, then getting SIngletary back from injury and maybe even Kroft is a real boost and could make a big difference. 

 

 

 

I don't know about mortgaging the future... But if Diggs could be had for a 2 or 3, hell yes. A guy like that could be what takes us over the top... and he has a favorable contract situation. You're not giving away capital for a one-year or less rental. He's under contract for many years to come.

[SoTier]

I would rather see the Bills look to improve the bottom end of their roster than bring in a big name or two for the short term.   They should look at practice squads for youngsters who are better than the lower end guys they have now, especially on the lines.   They should consider adding a middling talent guy or two if they can get younger guys for a modest outlay such as a mid or low round pick.

Edited October 7, 2019 by SoTier

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Pbomb said:

You would trade a first for Gordon? He has been average his whole career , did nothing yesterday and wants a big contract. Ekelar is better, and I’m pretty sure singletary is too 

He’s not worth even a third.  Well, maybe a third if it resulted in us getting a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.

[Billsfanatic8989]

3 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

This team should model itself after the Patriots.  The Patriots are all about sustainability.  They would never make a bad trade to to achieve a short term gain.  That doesnt mean you can't make a trade.  You just can't mortgage the future on rentals when you wont be getting compensatory picks when they leave.  We will sign too many players next off season to get compensated.  

By having a QB that deflats Footballs, owner who is a perv, and head coach who steals signals? Not to mention the countless criminals they've employed over the years. I'd rather the Bills not model themselves after that organization.

 

No the Bills shouldn't go "All in" this season. At some point you need a difference maker at QB. Allen may outduel the Jets 3rd string QB, a thrash Bengals team, and Mariotta. But he isn't going into KC or NE and competing with those QB's. Not yet at least. Yes we did give Brady trouble at home. But when have we ever given him trouble in Foxboro? The chance to get him was last Sunday.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Billsfanatic8989

[The Frankish Reich]

No! That -- going all in for 2019 -- would make us Jacksonville 2017, a team that misreads how good it is compared to the best teams in the AFC. The Bills are making good progress, and as we saw yesterday are roughly the equal of a team like the Titans. Add in a weird division -- 2 teams that are tanking, one by design and one by circumstances, plus one team that is still dominant -- and it's hard to get a handle on exactly where we are. Watching the Chiefs-Colts last night, can anyone say we're clearly better than the Luck-less Colts?  We have a solid team. The core is young. This is not some kind of window of opportunity that's about to slam shut. A strategic acquisition of two? Absolutely. Trading away the future? NO!

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, dma0034 said:

This is a learning year. Next year they'll be contenders. I fully expect them to lose to the Chiefs or Patriots in the playoffs close and come back and dominate next year

 

Next year we have brutal schedule, like the complete opposite of this year. I know many things will change between now and then, but now it is quite safe to say that if we dominate THAT schedule we are top SB contenders.

 

To save your time guys:

 

Home: Kansas, LA Chargers, Seattle, LA Rams, Cleveland/Baltimore instead of Cincinnati, Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, Denver 

Away: Oakland, Denver, SF, Arizona, Houston/Indy instead of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Dallas, NY Giants and Tennessee.

 

Road games look similar, but home games are like day and night, if we get Ravens both times all 4 games next year may be tougher than Philly this year. Miami can only get better, Jets probably too. We have like 7-8 relatively easy games this year, and there might be 3-4 like that next year.

 

Anyway, to the OP, I am against any short term moves for costly resources at all. Just keep building team through draft, sign our own do reasonable contracts and try to add quality in FA.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

sure,  I'm IN.

 

Not sure as to what, but  I'm in.  

[Locomark]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the philosophy McDermott and then Beane sold to the Pegulas was to try to build a perennial contender. 

Given that philosophy, I think you can expect to see a deal or deals only if it makes sense from that perspective.

 

I don't think you will see them giving up significant future assets or key players to fill in a spot this year.

 

Try Over the Cap:

https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-kerrigan/1462/

I don’t want another old outside rusher. We need need youth at edge. Kerrigan is a good player but at that price we need youth. 

[foreboding]

No. I think we see the approach to building this thing is a team concept-- If they get guys they will fit that mold and are less likely to be splashy.