Wk 1 - Bills -1.5 vs Jets - who you picking - how much can we over analyze this over the next 3 wks?

[GoBills808]

Two plays here

 

Bills-120

Bills-1.5+under parlay

 

Jets are going to have to make me believe, until then I like the better team only giving 1.5

[Boatdrinks]

Bills walking into a hornets nest here on Sept. 11th. Jets D scores TD late to seal it 28-17. Media love fest with NYJ kicks into overdrive  after being forced to acknowledge the Bills for a few seasons. 

[The Wiz]

I'll be passed out before kick off so I'll catch up with the post game thread in the morning.

[Xwnyer]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

What are your picks?
What is your over analysis of the game? 

I think the JETS win 33-6.  That defense will raise havoc and we lost to far inferior offense last year.   

[teef]

8 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It is going to be so so so interesting.

 

The emotion in that stadium for their home opener on 9/11, Monday Night Football, most highly anticipated opening game for them in decades or maybe ever, Super Bowl aspirations... It's going to be crazy. Almost an impossible-to-even-imagine level of crazy. Sometimes, environment and emotion are overrated when it comes to football games, but I'm not so sure that's true in this one.

 

I think it's a tossup on the football field regardless of the other factors. I'm surprised the Bills are favored. No result would surprise me.

I mean…it’s not going to be that crazy. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Jets defense is better than the Steelers.

 

They gave our offense fits last year.

 

Not as good front 7. Better backend.

 

I actually think the Jets are less likely to expose our tackles their best players up front are on the interior. So in theory our improved IOL should help manage that threat better than we did in 2022.

 

But will be a tough test. Saleh is a good defensive coach and Q obviously is a beast up front.

[CNYfan]

I think Garrett Wilson is a stud. 

Didn't the Packers score 0 points after their first drive against SF in their Playoff loss.   Rogers led them to 0 points, iirc, after a run heavy first drive?  

CJ Mosely lives to play the Bills.   

Our team will have to find some excitement and fury somewhere and play better than they have since the first half of the last Green Bay Game (when things for some reason stalled out) if they are going to grab a W in NJ.  

[Gregg]

This will be a tough game just like the 2 games last year. Sabres 20 Islanders 17.

[HOUSE]

Well, I finished reading about the Pittsburgh game last night.

 

JETS 54

BILLS 3

[colin]

the bills come out showing lots of looks, EP offense finally has the weapons and blocking to run how it should.  passing out of heavy formations and running into light boxes, the bills waltz down the field and take a 17-10 lead in the first half.

 

the bills d does a little change up here and there and a few well timed aggressive calls gets the jets to turn the ball over.  bills walk away 34 24, but the game isn't as close as the score.

[Coach Tuesday]

I would like to see some evidence that the Bills are not still sleepwalking.  Saturday looked like a continuation of the somnambulist state we saw against the Bengals.  If the pilot light gets reignited then the Bills should handle their business against the Jets.  But there have been too few signs of that this offseason.

[Gregg]

51 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I would like to see some evidence that the Bills are not still sleepwalking.  Saturday looked like a continuation of the somnambulist state we saw against the Bengals.  If the pilot light gets reignited then the Bills should handle their business against the Jets.  But there have been too few signs of that this offseason.

 

If they are sleepwalking week 1 on the road in what is sure to be a raucous environment against a longtime rival, then McDermott has lost the team. There is no excuse not to be ready for the start of the season. None.

[Chicken Boo]

Week 1 is week 1.  It can go either way.

 

I'll say this, I'm not impressed with Buffalo's run defense.  

[DapperCam]

I’m not sure what to think. That stadium is going to be hyped, and I think the Jets get a healthy serving of home cookin’ from the refs. Their defense gave us a really hard time last year, and our defense looks like it can’t stop anything.

 

Probably going to be a sloppy game with turnovers and penalties on both sides. Should be a close one.

[Peace Frog]

27-21 Jets 

Hope I'm wrong but this team has some problems.

[Franco_92]

10 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

I'm not confident at all

 

Until I see an engaged bills team (it's been since the first half of the last game the bills played Rodgers), any team that is close to talent and puts forth effort will be very tough for the bills to beat 

It's crazy that the Bills managed an 8 game win streak while being disengaged the entire time

4 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

I think the JETS win 33-6.  That defense will raise havoc and we lost to far inferior offense last year.   

The Raiders sucked in 2020 but beat the chiefs, and were good enough in 2021 to make the playoffs, but couldn't beat a chiefs team worse than the one they beat in 2020

 

ie you can't just start from the exact level you imagine last year's game being left off at, and add stuff from there. The jets game this year has its own DNA which has nothing to do with last year's game

[mannc]

The Jets are going to be the trendy pick here…all the experts are going to pick against the Bills and I expect the line to move to Jets -1 before kickoff.  I think this is exactly where we want to be…the disrespected team with a chip on our shoulder.  Bills 24-20.

[Blackbeard]

You won't see a lotta run in this one by the Bills, other than Cook here and there, and Murray to end  zone.

 

Our WRs win this one handily.  Kincaid is still an unknown and will be hell to plan for.   The offense will be difficult to stop, passing wise, even for the Jets.  

 

Our D will get after Rodgers.   I worry about the short middle though.

 

Bills 30.  Jets 24.

 

 

[newcam2012]

12 hours ago, Rico said:

Bills 31-17

I don't see the Bills putting up 31 points vs that Jets D. 

12 hours ago, SCBills said:

QB - Bills

OL - Bills

RB - Tie

WR - Bills

TE - Bills

 

DL - Jets

LB - Jets

CB - Jets

S - Bills

 

Both OL’s have question marks, but ours is better on paper, with more potential. 
 

If our OL can keep the Jets DL from taking over the game, Bills cover.  
 

I think the Jets Dline dominants the Bills Oline. That's the more likely outcome than vice versa. Quinton Williams will be dominant. 

[newcam2012]

10 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Under 47

Like the under and the Jets money line. 

9 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I have a very ominous feeling about this game. It’s the Jets SuperBowl. It feels like Bills Patriots week 1 with Bills blowin out Pats 31-0. I don’t think McD can get the Bills to match their emotion on the road. If Bills get down a couple scores early this could be a blood bath.

All that said, I also am skeptical Rodgers has anything left. Trust in Allen to play a clean game with Cook rushing for 130.

 

Bills 27- Jets 17

 

No way Cook runs for 130. Allen is likely to be pressured all game. 

[FilthyBeast]

All signs point to this being an ugly, low scoring game given both teams offensive line issues.

 

So the question is does the better offense or defense carry the load and early in the season? In most cases it's the defense that is ahead of offense which would give the nod to the Jets as they are the better unit across the board and probably a top 5 unit at worse this year.

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

This 100% ^^^^^^

Ask yourself this. Which team would make more of a statement opening game on national TV with a victory?

 

This years Media Darling under the bright lights, home Monday night on 9-11 with their shiny new QB.

 

Man! That is one tall order for any visiting team ladies and gentlemen. Will the Bills be able to handle the very aggressive and physical Jets D in front of a raucous home crowd? 

 

The Bills need to remind their rivals and the rest of the AFC that they are still a major contender for a championship. 

 

Will they dominate like last year? Probably not, but I got my fingers crossed on a close victory. 

 

Also, I will be far from surprised if a healthy Jets team comes out super amped and takes the W. Its always been my opinion that they, not the Fins are our biggest divisional threat.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!

The Bills dominate the Jets? Didn’t we lose to Zach Wilson last year?

[frostbitmic]

Bills win in a defensive game 10-6.

 

The Bills lone TD is scored on a strip sack of Rodgers who leaves the game with a mysterious injury.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Buffalo will jackhammer them. 
The Jets should get better and be a real threat after Halloween as for Aaron Rogers sake there is some oline cohesion by then.

The Bills have had to stew on the Bengals game…now the Steelers game…and every negative comment the national media has made about them.

The only cure for this is a 34-17 win in New Jersey. 

I feel the same way…if the jets had their home game as the second matchup and away game week 1 i think we probably split on the season but I’m expecting us to beat them twice. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Like the under and the Jets money line. 

No way Cook runs for 130. Allen is likely to be pressured all game. 

We will see. All he needs to do is break one decent long run. Bills OL may be better at run blocking than pass blocking especially the right side. Look for more heavy sets and wear out that Jets DL. 

[Captain_Quint]

If it weren't a division game, I'd say it's kind of a throw away game since it's week one. The interviews since the end of last year have been about getting hot at the end of the year and using the beginning of the year as a tune up. 

 

With the Bills schedule, I don't know if they can afford to do it this year. The last 8 games are a gauntlet, as it looks right now. Last year they came out smoking hot and fizzled at the end. 

[FireChans]

46 minutes ago, Process said:

Didn't the chiefs lose to the Colts, and go to overtime vs literally the worst team in the NFL?

 

What's your point?

That we didn’t dominate the Jets last year.

The Chiefs didn’t dominate the Colts either lmao

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

"I have not yet begun to over-analyze." - John Paul Jones, probably

[The Jokeman]

12 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

If it weren't a division game, I'd say it's kind of a throw away game since it's week one. The interviews since the end of last year have been about getting hot at the end of the year and using the beginning of the year as a tune up. 

 

With the Bills schedule, I don't know if they can afford to do it this year. The last 8 games are a gauntlet, as it looks right now. Last year they came out smoking hot and fizzled at the end. 

Saleh is 2-10 against the AFC East in his career, not saying it can't change this year but it's food for thought. 

[Fleezoid]

Have your puke buckets ready, it'll be an Aaron Rodgers love-fest!

 

[Process]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That we didn’t dominate the Jets last year.

The Chiefs didn’t dominate the Colts either lmao

Got it. I'll admit I didn't read the post you were quoting, thought you were saying we can't dominate them this year because they beat us last year. My bad!

[RyanC883]

I think we start with a short passing game to keep the Jets from briniging the house, then hit a few long ones.  Also mixing in the run.  As others have pointed out, the Jets OL is bad.  Oliver in particular needs a good game.  I think Floyd brings it.  Low scoring due to our offensive strategy, I could see like 17-9 or something.  D will bend but not break from the Jets run game.  

18 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

Have your puke buckets ready, it'll be an Aaron Rodgers love-fest!

 

 

Yes, it will be.  Hopefully Floyd, et. al. are there to give him some hugs!

[Franco_92]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

All signs point to this being an ugly, low scoring game given both teams offensive line issues.

 

So the question is does the better offense or defense carry the load and early in the season? In most cases it's the defense that is ahead of offense which would give the nod to the Jets as they are the better unit across the board and probably a top 5 unit at worse this year.

I'm sure it pains you to come to this sobering conclusion. 

[Einstein]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not as good front 7. Better backend.

 

I actually think the Jets are less likely to expose our tackles their best players up front are on the interior. So in theory our improved IOL should help manage that threat better than we did in 2022.

 

But will be a tough test. Saleh is a good defensive coach and Q obviously is a beast up front.

 

I agree. The Jets best d-line (Quinnen Williams) is interior while Pitts best (Watt) is outside. Though that may change this year if Jermaine Johnson breaks out like the Jets hope he will.

 

But if asked to pick between which defense I would want to play, im picking the Steelers over the Jets. 
 

The Steelers have a great d-line but the Jets are good to great at all three levels. We have had success against the Steelers defense 

[HappyDays]

I don't know where else to post this, so I'll put it here - Elam has a broken rib per my usual source. It apparently won't be a major issue for the regular season though.

 

EDIT: I meant to say Shakir, not Elam.

Edited August 22, 2023 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I agree. The Jets best d-line (Quinnen Williams) is interior while Pitts best (Watt) is outside. Though that may change this year if Jermaine Johnson breaks out like the Jets hope he will.

 

But if asked to pick between which defense I would want to play, im picking the Steelers over the Jets. 
 

The Steelers have a great d-line but the Jets are good to great at all three levels. We have had success against the Steelers defense 

 

In a vacuum, yes. If I'm concerned about my tackles holding up I don't think there are many defenses I'd like to play less than the Steelers. 

 

As for the Jets, their best edge rusher in pre-season has surprise, surprise been Bryce Huff. Again. It's almost like if they just accepted that a former UDFA is better than some of the guys they have made big pick of dollar investments in and put him on the field full time they'd be better. 

[dorquemada]

McD has got to be focused and in turn get the guys focused as well.  Environmental factors work against the Bills but they can quiet the crowd with a couple quick scores.

 

Alternatively, McD chokes in big game on national stage, media declares Bills run over, and Jets in ascendance.

 

Either way i just put some coin on Bills -1.5

[Eastport bills]

This game is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence. We know the Bills have the better roster, but the home field combined with heightened adrenaline an opening game brings, could even the playing field. I think the game is a classic pickem scenario. I don’t think the Bills will be able to run the ball against the Jets front seven, especially this early, so Josh will have to pick them apart with quick release passing and timely QB runs. My question is how will the defense stack up against Rogers, Cook. and a few quality receivers. If we can dominate their O-line and get pressure on Rodgers, that could be the difference.

[AuntieEm]

16 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’d like to see the office of line play a little better to have a better feeling about that Jets game
 

I don’t know what the Jets office is going to look like but you know that their defense is going to bring it

 

Jets defense is scary when they bring in their office supplies.  Particularly scary are their staplers, with the hole punchers a close second.  

[billsbackto81]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

The Bills dominate the Jets? Didn’t we lose to Zach Wilson last year?

I was referring to opening night last year against the Rams.