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Coach Tuesday

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  1. He also could’ve run to his left and may have scored!
  2. It has yes. The average fan has trouble looking behind the stats and results to determine how well or poorly a team or individual player actually performed. Your QB threw for 359 yds and a couple of TDs - great. But DVOA, which takes into account the opponent as well as the game situations, can tell you how that QB did compared to an average replacement-level player, based on the various down and distances and overall opponent adjustments. Your average fan may have a vague idea about that but DVOA can tell you within a much higher degree of reliability.
  3. I think you're misunderstanding what FO and DVOA does. They admit that their preseason W/L predictions based on DVOA aren't very reliable, nor are the first few weeks of DVOA ratings. This is because they don't - because they can't - take into account quality of opponent. DVOA becomes much more accurate and useful as the season progresses, once the opponent adjustments are incorporated into the model. And even then - DVOA isn't really designed to predict wins and losses. To be sure, it projects a range of outcomes for wins and losses and is a pretty good model for doing so. But where it's really useful is in betting and fantasy football. It can help tell you whether to start a certain player against a certain defense, or whether a point spread is too high or low, etc. If you use the model for those purposes you can reduce your risk and increase your odds of success. Other than that, DVOA is good for evaluating whether a W/L record is a true measure of a team's success, for whatever that's worth. You might have a 10 win season and would like to know, as a fan, whether it was a success. DVOA can help you look behind the wins and losses - did you get lucky? Should you really have won 14 games? Etc.
  4. Cardinals and Chargers are not easy games either - Cardinals’ offense is solid and the Chargers’ D is excellent.
  5. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-3-dvoa-ratings The Bills are a very weird, unexpected team so far this year. They have essentially been the exact opposite of what we expected. In Football Outsiders Almanac 2020, we wrote that the Bills might have the best roster in the league outside of the quarterback position. Their defense had our No. 1 projection for the preseason. So what has happened instead? Josh Allen has had a spectacular breakout, currently ranking second behind Russell Wilson in passing YAR. But the Bills rank 28th running the ball and a very surprising 24th on defense. They've scored a ton of points but keep letting opponents back into games. It's not just the blown 28-3 lead against the Rams; Miami was beating Buffalo until 6:03 of the fourth quarter last weekend. The rest of the team is not living up to what Josh Allen is doing so far.
  6. Carr is such a thin-skinned douche. His teammates don’t really like him. His coach doesn’t like him. He’s robotic on the field and off the field. He’s the opposite of Josh Allen in so many ways. He’ll probably find this post and block me (he blocked Pro Football Talk from his Twitter account for a critical article last year).
  7. I agree with you. I think, when someday the book on Allen's career is written (which will include several Lombardis), one of the themes will be that he learned the hard way to save himself for the next play. It may not happen this year, but it's going to happen with the way he plays - he's going to get himself hurt. Every single QB or player generally who plays the way he does eventually gets hurt, and many of them change their behavior afterwards as a result. You can tell McD is struggling with how to coach this aspect of Josh's personality - you want the fire and the compete, you love the toughness and leadership, but there's just a fine line between going all out and taking unnecessary risks. Someday, Allen will learn to throw the ball out of bounds or run out of bounds or slide, because he'll get hurt. And the change won't be out of fear of getting hurt - it will be because he hates letting his teammates down by getting hurt. That's the kind of person he is.
  8. He’s playing for the Browns. Prob should’ve kept him but not sure who they would’ve cut.
  9. The Ravens’ offense just isn’t designed to play from behind. They can’t score a ton of points in a hurry, that’s not how they’re built. Once they got in a hole last night it was all but over.
  10. Disagree with you about o-line play - fourth quarter seemed like a jailbreak on nearly every play.
  11. Was Vince Taylor a sneaky big roster subtraction?
  12. I’m not sure I agree but the best evidence of where they think their needs are is who they scout - and by many accounts Kyle Dugger was their top choice in the draft. He’s more of a box safety, like Poyer. I do think that a rangy free safety to someday replace Hyde is a sneaky long-term need for this team but Hyde is far from the weakest link on that defense. Start with Horrible Harry there - his play yesterday matched his nickname. Maybe he’s not healthy yet. Butler was bad too and he doesn’t have an injury excuse that I know of...
  13. It was illegal contact. Has been called against every team in the league a gazillion times including the Bills more times than I can count. If the refs had just said "illegal contact" instead of "pass interference" would anyone be complaining? It's a 5-yard foul not a spot foul but it's an automatic first down and given where they were on the field it would've gone to about the same spot. This is a non-issue (not to mention that it's been discussed at length in multiple other places).
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