Like many here, Jim Kelly says JA can’t do it all. Here’s his solution

[Don Otreply]

What josh needs is an above average O-0line, and a better #2 WR, that anyone thinks a RB behind the Current O-line will make the difference is mind boggling to say the least, out of the first three draft picks there needs to be O-line and WR at a minimum, the question is will it happen? 

[starrymessenger]

While it is true that the modern game differs from what was played in Kelly's time with greater emphasis on passing, you are unlikely to be successful without a running game that opposing Ds have to account for. And you might say that the run game itself has more morphed into something else with RBs receiving out of the backfield than become entirely of secondary importance . And even in the past there have been some strongly pass first offences. The greatest show on turf had a hall of fame RB. Don Coryell's offence in San Diego relied heavily on a strong inside running attack.
We all want weapons for Josh but are we forgetting that a good to great back is an offensive weapon? We all know the importance of protecting the passer, but are we forgetting that a three down franchise back has also to be very good in pass pro in order to deserve that caption?

The Bills have invested a fair amount of draft capital to the RB position. Two thirds and a second. The question is whether they would have been better served by investing in a first round RB if they felt that a three down franchise back was available. Maybe they felt that guy wasn't there. Thing is a college back is unlikely to be asked to do all the things a pro is asked to do. Bijan acknowledges that his pass protection is very underdeveloped. I would think that part of the evaluation process in his case has to involve a projection regarding his ability to block.

A line that can block is every bit as important, even more important, than having a great back. That's because there are lots of good though not great runners capable of giving you what you need to have a balanced attack, which is essential. I think that with Harris the emphasis should be on upgrading the line, which could include drafting a TE. I like Mayer a lot.

This years crop of RBs is good. I expect the Bills to look for one in later rounds. They need a rook to fill out the RB room. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by starrymessenger

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I’m not really sure how any of us can think a middle linebacker in the first round moves the needle for this team to get to the super bowl.

 

No one we draft this year is going to move the needle in the way that you mean. Rookies are supposed to be role players, not cornerstones. You hope they become cornerstones in year two or three. So yes a front 7 player in the 1st round makes a ton of sense if that's where the value is at our pick.

 

The best thing we can still do to move the needle is get Hopkins, Jeudy, or OBJ on the team. Established players move the needle, not low 1st round players in a weak draft.

[Big Turk]

Unfortunately this isn't 1988 anymore and the game has changed tremendously.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Big Turk

[JMM]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

Jim would know. Those offenses from the Super Bowl era were led by Thurman. Jim even mentioned at the time that when Thurman was having a good game (which was most of the time) that it opened everything else up. Jim also played behind a good OL. Allen doesn't.

That line wasn't good , they were dominant.  Clearly the best line in the league for a few of the glory years. 

[Billz4ever]

21 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Pro Bowlers... No, but threats in the running game. 

Kelly said stars, so to me, that's pro-bowl caliber backs considering his frame of reference is Thurman.

 

Not necessary.  You need serviceable backs, not pro-bowlers making $10M a year. They aren't the ones winning rings.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Nitro said:

Different version of football being played now.  Respect Jim’s opinion but they have a good set of backs.  A better O line and up grading WR and TE will make Allen much more effective.

Yeah I'm not as caught up about finding the next Thurman.  I think if we can improve the OL on both techniques, we can keep enough pressure off Josh with Cook/Harris.  Finding a true WR2 is more important than trying to draft Bijan.  And the organization still needs to find a RT in the draft.

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

What do you think of the FA guards they signed? This is apparently a particularly weak draft. I doubt they are going to find a LT. Where would you concentrate the day one and two picks?

 

 

I thought the moves at guard were uninspiring and that they certainly overpaid for McGovern based on his production.......but they raised the floor on the position a bit and got younger, which are the positives.    That might be plenty if they had something close to a Jamar Chase/Tee Higgins kinda' 1-2 combo.    As far as the draft they should go BPA at premium positions regardless of which side of the ball.  That's the way the draft should be executed.   I don't subscribe to the "well this draft is bad so let's take a non-premium position guy".   I understand the logic but I don't agree with it.  Trust the draft process.  My preferred option is to acquire a difference maker via trade as their second pass receiving option (or the more remote possibility a stud LT). 

[TheFunPolice]

can you imagine how good Thurman Thomas in his prime would be in today's game?

 

The guy lined up at WR as a RB before it was cool

[DCofNC]

If you follow the logic of taking pressure off JA, then a RB is the answer.  Even with more weapons to throw to JA still has to make the throws, handing it off means nothing on JA. 
 

IF and it’s a BIG IF, you could give him a decent running game and some time to pass, I think the current weapons are probably good enough for him to get it done.  That said, he can’t be under fire EVERY time he drops back.  Elite WRs get open and do it quickly, ok ones can usually break free, but need more time.  No time to wait and a scheme that depends on a read of being open means you have to protect longer.    Fixing the line will help the run game and the pass game, but even our best pieces on the OL are basically average and we pay them as if they are better.  

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Poor OL and a paper tiger defense who only plays well against bad/mediocre teams but gets destroyed against good offenses is the reason why they fail in the playoffs.

Every aspect of the team plays into it.  I think the “paper tiger” comment is a little unfair.  Of course, when you play the best teams (in the playoffs), that will challenge your defense more. 
 

OL has been a problem.  They need to improve there by a good bit - whether that comes from the Gs they signed and health and improvement from Spencer Brown or comes from the draft.

 

A really too WR opposite Diggs would help, no doubt.  So would a top slot WR (maybe more than upgrading over Gabe Davis).  
 

Finally, a great RB would surely help.  The more of a threat your run game presents, the more it opens your pass game and vice versa.

 

Kelly’s Bills had all of those things - it was before FA/cap.

 

The debate rages on.  I don’t think that there is only 1 answer.  Improving OL or WR or RB undoubtedly helps (as would a 2nd TE).  Problem is the cap and picking late in the draft.

 

On defense, I am sort of aligned that it is nearly impossible to stop today’s top offenses.  Really only two options I see there: 1. Continuing with the bend don’t break defense hoping that offenses occasionally make a mistake, turnover or have a key penalty or 2. Focus on maximizing takeaways through dominant pass rush and DBs who have a propensity to make INTs.

[NickelCity]

OLine OLine OLine OLine

[Reed83HOF]

I wanted Etienne in his class, as at that point I felt we could afford the luxury pick and that it would help Josh and our offense out more. I was wrong, Josh is a push the ball down the field qb, wr2 and beef up the line. I would still like a nice screen game though...

 

Fwiw and i know one of you jerks will pounce on the no first rd 1 rb thing and yeah I'm on that train; to me and especially in a light class like this one, a low rd1 = high rd 2 pick. 

[Billz4ever]

30 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

If you follow the logic of taking pressure off JA, then a RB is the answer.  Even with more weapons to throw to JA still has to make the throws, handing it off means nothing on JA. 
 

IF and it’s a BIG IF, you could give him a decent running game and some time to pass, I think the current weapons are probably good enough for him to get it done.  That said, he can’t be under fire EVERY time he drops back.  Elite WRs get open and do it quickly, ok ones can usually break free, but need more time.  No time to wait and a scheme that depends on a read of being open means you have to protect longer.    Fixing the line will help the run game and the pass game, but even our best pieces on the OL are basically average and we pay them as if they are better.  

You don't take RBs in the first round unless they're seen as a generational talent and even then, there's still not full agreement.

 

There's one of those in this draft who will most likely not be there when we pick.  

 

It's better to focus on players that have a much better chance to be.

[First Round Bust]

the off-season is getting repetetive round here...the off-season is getting repetetive round here

 

the draft cant come soon enough...

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

What josh needs is an above average O-0line, and a better #2 WR, that anyone thinks a RB behind the Current O-line will make the difference is mind boggling to say the least, out of the first three draft picks there needs to be O-line and WR at a minimum, the question is will it happen? 

I agree 100 percent about the o line but I don’t think so to be honest.

 

I think in their minds the starting 5 is set.

 

In no particular order I think the bills go LB, DT, WR in the first 3 rounds. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by BillsFan130

[Since1981]

Drafting in FIRST round has strategic cap value. For up to five yrs, your kid is locked at low cost, high value. GM must hit on the first round to help the next 5 yrs. Picking 32 vs 33 is huge. Does RB fit this 1-32 situation? I tend to think not. 

[Big Blitz]

Our oline is built with an emphasis on pass pro.  
 

You thus need an elite RB.  

 

Average run blocking lines aren’t making any RB better - I can argue Harris the player is downgraded coming here.  
 

He isn’t elite but behind the NE line he was good.  
 

Here?  No idea.  

[Peace Frog]

An offense without a solid O-line is like a tank without good armor.  Simple as that.

[Don Otreply]

52 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I agree 100 percent about the o line but I don’t think so to be honest.

 

I think in their minds the starting 5 is set.

 

In no particular order I think the bills go LB, DT, WR in the first 3 rounds. 

You are likely correct in how the think about the O-line, which is part of why our O-line has been lacking for several years.

[gjv]

Thank you Jim Kelly!! Jumping ahead of the Chargers for Bijan Robinson would probably cost a 4th round pick. Even if it's a third, Bijan is not just a RB in the mold of a Saquon Barkley, Bijan is an outstanding receiver. Not to mention one of 14 players with a true 1st round grade. 

[Buffalo ill]

JK had 2 hof wrs + Bebe and a HoF running back and had 4 weak superbowl showings.

[BillsSbSoon]

The way Jim probably see it is we have Andre but don’t have Thurman yet. He’s not wrong. Hopefully cook breaks out at least

[Pirate Angel]

7 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I’ll defer to the Hall of Famer. But for the record he also played with Reed (a route running savant) and Lofton (proven deep threat) at the same time during the early Super Bowl run. 

No love for Don Bebee?

[Aussie Joe]

41 minutes ago, gjv said:

Thank you Jim Kelly!! Jumping ahead of the Chargers for Bijan Robinson would probably cost a 4th round pick. Even if it's a third, 

You are dreaming… just go to last year when a 4th got them from 25 to 23

[jethro_tull]

An RB is only as good as his OL.  The thing to take some load off JA is if someone is OPEN on every pass play - which is where a tall, athletic TE would fit as an option to the slot receiver.  Proven blue print and the Bills do not yet have it.  

Edited March 31, 2023 by jethro_tull

[msw2112]

Kelly's comments were off the cuff.  Although he did use the words "star running back," he also said that they need to "get the running game going" and that "Singletary was pretty good and they probably didn't use him enough."  So my interpretation of Kelly's point was more along the lines that a good running game would take some of the pressure and workload off of Allen and less about the Bills needing to go out and draft a RB in the first round or trading assets for a big name RB.  Who knows, maybe with a better offensive line, Cook could be a "star running back."

 

While it's true that there was less passing in Kelly's era than their is today, his point is still valid.  Having the ability to effectively run the ball is still highly benefical to a QB.

 

In my opinion, a star RB or a great WR#2 are both nice to have, but it's far more important to have a strong OL.  With a strong OL, there are holes opened up for the RBs to run through and the QB has more time to find an open receiver AND the receivers have more time to let routes develop and get open.  All of the skill players are more successful with a strong OL.

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

You don't take RBs in the first round unless they're seen as a generational talent and even then, there's still not full agreement.

 

There's one of those in this draft who will most likely not be there when we pick.  

 

It's better to focus on players that have a much better chance to be.

I did not mention a single word about drafting a running back in the first round. I think you need a decent run game, which can be accomplished with a good running back, there’s no need to be taking one in the first round.

[Billz4ever]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I did not mention a single word about drafting a running back in the first round. I think you need a decent run game, which can be accomplished with a good running back, there’s no need to be taking one in the first round.

I know you didn't.  I was just expanding on what you said because there are many here who think we should take a RB first round.

[LABILLBACKER]

47 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

Kelly's comments were off the cuff.  Although he did use the words "star running back," he also said that they need to "get the running game going" and that "Singletary was pretty good and they probably didn't use him enough."  So my interpretation of Kelly's point was more along the lines that a good running game would take some of the pressure and workload off of Allen and less about the Bills needing to go out and draft a RB in the first round or trading assets for a big name RB.  Who knows, maybe with a better offensive line, Cook could be a "star running back."

 

While it's true that there was less passing in Kelly's era than their is today, his point is still valid.  Having the ability to effectively run the ball is still highly benefical to a QB.

 

In my opinion, a star RB or a great WR#2 are both nice to have, but it's far more important to have a strong OL.  With a strong OL, there are holes opened up for the RBs to run through and the QB has more time to find an open receiver AND the receivers have more time to let routes develop and get open.  All of the skill players are more successful with a strong OL.

Our running attack will improve as soon as our OL is upgraded. You don’t gather up RB's first and worry about OL later.  Unfortunately that's exactly the strategy McB have irresponsibly practiced.  McGovern & Edwards is a good start but there's more work (RT) to do.  We could luck out and find a dynamic udfa rb.  It's not out of the realm.

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Our running attack will improve as soon as our OL is upgraded. You don’t gather up RB's first and worry about OL later.  Unfortunately that's exactly the strategy McB have irresponsibly practiced.  McGovern & Edwards is a good start but there's more work (RT) to do.  We could luck out and find a dynamic udfa rb.  It's not out of the realm.

I really think our rb room right now is pretty damn good. Fix the oline and most of the problems go away.

[TAinLack.]

8 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Fix the OL and add more receiving weapons. This idea that we need a star RB, as if you can just go to the store and get one, in order to win a SB is stupid. I don’t care that it’s Jim Kelly saying it, it’s dumb. 
 

How can anyone watch our recent playoff failures and conclude that not having a star RB was our downfall

I agree with fixing the OL, Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas had some pretty solid guys on their offensive lines.

[Freddie's Dead]

Star RB running behind this bull#### OL won't work.  Get the beef first, then the sizzle.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Since1981 said:

Drafting in FIRST round has strategic cap value. For up to five yrs, your kid is locked at low cost, high value. GM must hit on the first round to help the next 5 yrs. Picking 32 vs 33 is huge. Does RB fit this 1-32 situation? I tend to think not. 

Good concept but this regime is not going to be around 4 years from now. They need to win now. 

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Jimbo as you can see from my avatar is a hero for a lot of us, but that was a different league and different rules.

 

We need a stud #2 WR.  if we get Hopkins on draft day another TE should be a top priority as we’re surrounding JA17 Super Allen a plethora of weapons like what KC and Cincy have done.

 

A1st RD RB is a mistake.  They know it as well.

 

Lastly, better G’s is important to make to the running game work where it’s not Allen.

I understand that it is not required to have a star running back. But you have to run the ball effectively in the playoffs to win the Superbowl.  

In the Bengals playoffs, while Burrow set up the game with TDs on the first two drives, it was their running game behind Mixon and Perrine that stiffled us from getting back into the game.   They together put up 140+ yards and a TD. 

[LeGOATski]

Star RB adds a different dimension to the attack, IMO. They already have a star WR in Diggs and Knox, Davis, Shakir, are plenty capable. All else being equal, I would rather have star RB who can take it to the house from anywhere or set the tone in a physical way.

[In Summary]

Jim Kelly had a better O line than Allen. RB won't do it.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

5 hours ago, Pirate Angel said:

No love for Don Bebee?

Touché! Absolutely 👍🏻. Good call.  “Steeler Killer” showed you everything you needed to know about his guts when he first ran a route then doubled all the way back to complete the forced fumble play at the goal line against Dallas in SB XXVII…legendary heart. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

When is the last time a team won a Super Bowl with a star RB? Or even made it to the Super Bowl with one? Gurley is the guy that most recently comes to mind and that was back in 2018. I wouldn't say you need a start RB, but you do need a running game and even more importantly, you need to throw the ball to the Rb's. The dude with 7 rings lived off of dumping the ball off to the RB's. Mahomes dumps the ball off to the backs at a far higher rate than the Bills and Allen do. Our RB's need to be combing for at least 110+ receptions. Including Gilliam they only had 79 receptions in 16 games. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Our oline is built with an emphasis on pass pro.  
 

You thus need an elite RB.  

 

Average run blocking lines aren’t making any RB better - I can argue Harris the player is downgraded coming here.  
 

He isn’t elite but behind the NE line he was good.  
 

Here?  No idea.  

 

The flip side is that the elite QB is supposed to open up space for the RB. Maybe the problem is that Josh himself runs too much? So even though he can threaten defenses with his arm teams are still staying close to the line to keep him from using his legs.