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Everything posted by OldTimer1960

  1. Campbell does seem to have the highest floor of the group. His position, while not completely devalued, is a tough one to be a real difference maker at. There could be worse picks than him there, but probably not going to get a big game-changer that stuffs stat sheets. Of course, far easier to quantify impact of skill positions.
  2. Highlights are fun to watch, but by definition are meant to show the very best plays by a given player. Use caution when scouting from highlight videos - everybody looks good in their highlights.
  3. I don’t know about that. He seems like a better fit as a 3-4 OLB than a 4-3 DE. I know he is a great athlete, but has he really played to the level of a first round pass rush specialist? In 4 seasons at Ga, he totaled 12.5 sacks. His highest 1 season sack total was 4.5 in 12 games as a junior. I’m not saying that he can’t be a good pass rusher in the NFL - his physical ability says he should be able to, but I don’t think he has produced dominant pass rush numbers yet. I watch game tape, but I defer to those who know how to evaluate better than I do.
  4. I’m with you. His change of direction, as you noted, is tremendous.
  5. I really like Josh Downs, but a slot only guy in round 1? I know there aren’t going to be great options at any position, but slot has to be the easiest to fill and hence need to think hard about whether to use a late first on one.
  6. How are you going to fit Hopkins’ contract under the cap?
  7. Thanks - I hadn’t read or watched many DEs because it doesn’t seem like a likely position for the Bills in round 1. Of course, a great pass rusher would be in their consideration, if one is available. I didn’t realize that Van Ness was that much more athletic than Epenesa was. I wonder how Epenesa would fare in some of those tests now that he has dropped considerable weight.
  8. I don’t know how to view Van Ness. A first for a guy who wasn’t even a starter in college seems too high to me. I also wonder if his primarily power pass rush will be effective against NFL OL. Epenesa was a power rusher in college, too (and pretty effective), but they had him slim down a lot to add speed. I don’t see Epenesa as a total bust with 6.5 sacks last year, but I’d say fair to say they hoped for more from him.
  9. It is only that low because of his high contract $19.5M this year and $14.5M next - and his age. But, if he was making $10M/year, the trade cost would be higher because there would be more teams interested.
  10. I don’t see how they could fit Hopkins under their cap without taking a second mortgage (contract extension) and I don’t want to do that for a 31 y.o. who was recently injured AND recently suspended for performance enhancing drugs. I don’t know that his body is breaking down, but at 31 coupled with the PED use, I’ll pass on mortgaging the future.
  11. Former Miami GM Mike Tannenbaum thinks the Bills should take RB Jahmyr Gibbs at pick 27. This would be a pick that I really would not understand. He might be a little better than James Cook, but they are similar in being undersized and that neither should be used regularly between the tackles. I just can’t even imagine this pick for the Bills, it would be redundant with Cook. Now, if you trade Cook it might be plausible, but in a year with a strong RB class, Cook’s value would be depressing.
  12. I wanted to believe in him, but in the games I watched I thought he had trouble getting separation and had some bad drops. No doubt, I saw him make some very good catches, so maybe drops are concentration lapses. Still, I will be a little surprised if he is drafted before the 3rd round. BIG CAVEAT: I’m a fan who “tries” to scout through game videos, but I don’t know the technical aspects of any given position.
  13. Welp, that would be really nice if he can do it well.
  14. I will be surprised if he does start at ILB, he is really small for that position. Now, maybe he can start on the outside opposite Milano, but they have usually used only 2LBs. Going to 3 LBs would take Tarim Johnson off the field more which is probably not preferable. I don’t know that his lateral movement is ideal - in spite of his Combine performance. I’m not saying he is bad, just that there will likely be better players available at 27 than him. No doubt all players have some weaknesses.
  15. I think another reason that corner might be in play is White’s salary to performance ratio. He might return to form next year after his knee injury, but it’s possible that he doesn’t. In the latter case, tough to have that much salary tied up in a guy who may no longer be a top performer. Having a backup plan for that has some allure.
  16. For me, it’s mainly that he is very undersized, especially for inside backer.
  17. Get ready for MLB to be a problem this season. I agree that they could not responsibly pay Edmunds enough for him to stay, but man, options to replace him in FA and the draft are slim. Many of the LBs in the draft are undersized for inside and the few with size (Campbell, Sanders, and Simpson) all have holes in their game somewhere and all would be at least modest reaches at the end of round 1, but will likely all be gone before Bills’ 2nd round pick.
  18. I think it’s possible that the middle-of-the-pack defensive rating was partially due to how low scoring the Bills’ offense was - opponents really didn’t need to score a lot to beat that Bills’ team, so I would guess the opponents were conservative on offense once they got a lead.
  19. Why would you trade a future pick for a pick in a draft as weak as this one?
  20. So, adding those two guarantees they will be better than every other team and guarantee a Super Bowl? I don’t. Problem 1: injury- if Allen or Diggs goes down, no Super Bowl. Problem 2: what if KC or Cincinnati or someone else outscores them? Quite possible, even with those two additions. Even if they magically got Justin Jefferson, is Diggs/Jefferson clearly better than Hill/Waddle in Miami or the Bengals WRs or the Eagles WRs? Of course, I can’t say that those in the “all in - future cap problems be damned camp” are wrong. I just would rather have a consistently competitive team - something that is possible with Josh Allen under contract - than have to reset the roster in a year or two and waste 2-3 years of Allen’s career rebuilding. I believe that being consistently in the mix will maximize their chances of winning a Super Bowl as compared with “all in for a year, then rebuild”.
  21. Yes, that’s true. Players for the most part are happy to restructure and get money sooner. Hopkins is 31 y.o. And has 2 years remaining on his contract at (roughly) $20M for 2023 and $15M for 2024 when he will be 32 y.o. Most restructured contracts add time on the backend of the contract and pay a big chunk up front to be amortized over the remaining years on the contract. For example, Bills could add 2 years to Hopkins contract at basically $0/ year and pay him the total $35M now as a signing bonus. That would allow them to take a cap hit of $35/4 = $8.75M per year for 2023-2026. Sounds great, but if Hopkins play falls on due to injury or age or he decides to retire after 2024 - the Bills would have to eat $15M of dead cap in 2025. i expect this will happen with Von Miler at some point - he isn’t going to play the length of his contract and the Bills will have to weather that dead cap hit.
  22. My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year. Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too. Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?
  23. Signing bonus does kick can down the road. Convert his $20M salary to a bonus allows you to spread the cap hit over the length of the remaining contract, but if he retires before end of contract, the unamortized portion hits immediately.
  24. I would not want to acquire and restructure on a 31 y.o. WR. That just creates future cap problems with dead money.
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