Is Allen routinely fooled by pre-snap disguises?

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The only criticism I have of Allen's game is his deep ball accuracy.  He is much improved but he still has a tendency to overthrow open guys. I don't recall many passes that were too far inside or outside.  

I also don't recall thinking once last year that Allen was fooled on any play. He had some poor throws as all QBs do. But as far as being fooled by coverage I don't see it. 

 

At least not ROUTINELY fooled...

 

Sure, he gets "fooled," sometimes, just as every QB does. I mean that's half the game every snap...

 

Coaches & Coordinators make big money for the sole purpose of putting their defenses in the best position to stop opposing offenses. Of course they're going to be at least semi-competent at their jobs. 

 

But misdirecting Allen on some plays doesn't automatically mean you stopped him, nor does it mean he's being "fooled" more than other elite QBs.

 

Imagine in basketball discrediting MJ because he occasionally got stuffed or had a ball stolen from him. Remember, defenders get paid too. It's just the nature of the game. 

 

Point being, he still succeeds regardless. 

[YattaOkasan]

40 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Saying that he “struggles with pre-snap” is a critique that he probably could make in 2020 and into the first half of last season.  But I think Josh really got better at reading defenses toward the end of the season and eventually audibled or figured out where to go with the ball when facing two high safeties.  
 

The rest of his write up makes sense.  Josh is not technically perfect but his athletic ability allows him to get away with it.  

I think he had it down at the start of 2020.  Not sure if you were watching Cover 1 videos but they identified the "Gold" audible against cover 0 early on.  To the point that when I could hear it on the broadcast later in the season I would get up expecting a big play.  Would also point to his ability to pump fake peeps in 2020 as a way he understood coverage to get people out of position. 

 

Agree with your other posts about YAC and his responsibility.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Film gurus, please weigh in. I’m not being sensitive or disputing this, I just haven’t seen this assessment out there before

 

 

 

Make sure Aaron Donald waits to bring a friend before attempting to tackle Allen.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I would like to see a Baldy breakdown or someone else more reputable take before I believe that Josh is routinely fooled

It’s a little dated but

 

Josh Allen & the Bills Pulled Off a Perfect Game! | Baldy Breakdowns

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

This guy's analysis is a complete joke. Justin Herbert has done NOTHING to compare to Josh's performance in the playoffs last year. 

 

Josh is not fooled routinely or even frequently, pre-snap, nor does he have a problem with accuracy anymore. He's been in the zone most of the time since 2020. 

 

As a lot of posters said, ask Belichick!

 

I think this is just sour grapes from a guy who has a superficial knowledge of Allen and holds a grudge for some reason. Most of his tweets are about soccer.

 

The Ringer is surprisingly lame in general. I don't think Bill Simmons cares about great sports journalism that much anymore, he's gotten too big for that or something. 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

39 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Thanks for this.

 

I read what he wrote and it didn't make sense with what we've been seeing the last few years. Unless this is an Advanced Analytics bro who went all-in on Allen sucking in 2018. 

 

It sort of covers his butt. "Allen isn't a good QB, he's just has SUCH GOOD TOOLS it covers up for the weaknesses that I predicted in 2018. So see! I wasn't wrong!" 

thats exactly how i read it.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

Very common among QBs on every level.  

[otagoyellow]

2 hours ago, Mynamemike said:

If he does get fooled he has so many ways to either buy time for someone to get open or he can just skiddaddle out and figure it out later.  Plus if it takes a little longer for him to process something he makes up for it by throwing a fastball past the defenders.  Him and Mahomes do it better than anyone with their ability to buy time and keep things moving downfield imo.

I came here to praise you for the use of "skiddaddle." Five stars. That is all. 

[ColoradoBills]

It's not Josh Allen's fault.  It's "wind confusion"!

[Punching Bag]

14 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

It’s a little dated but

 

Josh Allen & the Bills Pulled Off a Perfect Game! | Baldy Breakdowns

 

 

 

Baldy's breakdown showed a lot of Bills players who are no longer with Bills have stuff left in the tank.

I hope those players who still wish to play can find a team to join practice squad and be elevated for a game when needed and I hope not against the Bills.   Daryl Williams in particular would be a player I would love on our practice squad.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

49 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Josh had four bad games last year which were on him.  His stats also took a huge hit because he played in 3-4 wind games at home, the pats being just ridiculous. 

I think there is something to that. Bills played in really bad weather especially at home. Rain and wind was terrible last season.

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Stop with the facts. Is it not better to just let idiocy reign?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So is his accuracy spotty or can he throw it as well as anyone in the history of the sport?  I don't know about the presnap reads but that could be true since he holds onto the ball longer than all other QB's.  I think it could be that he does not trust his presnap reads and prefers to know the guy is open and throw it.  He said as much with the Simms interview.  He is not as much a 1-2-3 ball out on time to a spot.....I am ok with that!  He also needs to run people over less often than he was last year.

I think it depends on the throw. I've posted this before but I think Allen may be the best QB in history throwing the deep out, curl, or crossing pattern. I can't think of another QB better at throwing to a spot 15-25 yards dowfield.

I think other QBs have better touch on the deep seam and fly routes. Its a tic tac critique but Allen still throws those balls too flat instead of putting the proverbial "air under the ball". 

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

10. Josh Rosen, QB UCLA — Arizona Cardinals (via OAK)

GRADE: A+

Analysis: The best quarterback in the draft had to wait 10 picks to hear his name called. Rosen gives the Cardinals a polished pocket passer who reads defense in an instant and throws the ball accurately. And now he’s motivated to make the nine team that passed on him regret that mistake.

This pretty much sums up the weight of this opinion.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Warcodered

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So is his accuracy spotty or can he throw it as well as anyone in the history of the sport?  I don't know about the presnap reads but that could be true since he holds onto the ball longer than all other QB's.  I think it could be that he does not trust his presnap reads and prefers to know the guy is open and throw it.  He said as much with the Simms interview.  He is not as much a 1-2-3 ball out on time to a spot.....I am ok with that!  He also needs to run people over less often than he was last year.

 

Hey Matt,

 

I got a different take from the interview.  I thought Allen said that on every route the receiver has the freedom to extend the route or cut it short or move in or out based on their read of the coverage.  Allen holds the ball until the receiver declares where he is going and then he pulls the trigger.  I think it was more an issue of Allen making sure that he and the receiver were on the same sheet of music about where the receiver was going and less to do with Allen's read of the defense.

 

🍻

[Freddie's Dead]

No.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The only criticism I have of Allen's game is his deep ball accuracy.  He is much improved but he still has a tendency to overthrow open guys. I don't recall many passes that were too far inside or outside.  

I also don't recall thinking once last year that Allen was fooled on any play. He had some poor throws as all QBs do. But as far as being fooled by coverage I don't see it. 

 

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

 

I need to go back and watch the entire 30min but I believe Josh specifically mentioned this in his chat with Chris Simms. IIRC, he didnt say he purposely overthrows them but more along the lines of, if he is going to err, it is going to be an overthrow so it doesnt get picked off.

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey Matt,

 

I got a different take from the interview.  I thought Allen said that on every route the receiver has the freedom to extend the route or cut it short or move in or out based on their read of the coverage.  Allen holds the ball until the receiver declares where he is going and then he pulls the trigger.  I think it was more an issue of Allen making sure that he and the receiver were on the same sheet of music about where the receiver was going and less to do with Allen's read of the defense.

 

🍻

You are correct that is what he said.  Same idea though.   They are not as much of a timing offense as others.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

I need to go back and watch the entire 30min but I believe Josh specifically mentioned this in his chat with Chris Simms. IIRC, he didnt say he purposely overthrows them but more along the lines of, if he is going to err, it is going to be an overthrow so it doesnt get picked off.

Thats probably true.  Honestly I'd be fine if he threw a few more 50/50 balls. Diggs and Davis fight for the ball well even though they don't have elite size.  They position themselves well and of course there is a chance to draw a PI.  

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, K-9 said:

It would help if these Allen critics actually watched the fricken games and the All 22. They are woefully unprepared to offer up an intellectually honest analysis of his ability as a QB. Zero credibility. 

 

It wouldn't matter if they did. People like Ruiz are incapable of admitting they were just wrong in their analyses of Allen when he was drafted. It is easier for people like him to cling to this idea that they were correct in their anlayses and that Allen somehow succeeded at the NFL level in spite of having no real abilities to do so - other than he can scramble and throw the ball hard.

 

By sticking to some variation of the themes of "Nobody saw this coming" or "He somehow succeeded without the talent to do so," people like Ruiz can acknowledge that Allen is a top QB while still giving themselves credit for being correct in their initial analyses.

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by billsfan1959

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Wait.  Who is Krystle Noel ?

 

I'd be much more likely to believe her than Steven Ruiz

Edited September 6, 2022 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[Logic]

Steven Ruiz was/is one of the biggest Josh Allen haters in the analytics community.

It's clear from Ruiz's "analysis" that he's still locked into his pre-draft take and dislike of Josh Allen, and likely nothing that Allen can do will cause him to drop the "big dumb oaf throws the ball hard enough to overcome his idiocy" opinion of Josh.

I'll only say that Bill Belichick is not known for simple, easy-to-read defenses. He threw everything at Josh Allen in the playoffs last year. EVERYTHING. The result? The first perfect offensive performance in modern league history.

Ruiz needs to get over his hurt feelings and accept that his pre-draft take was wrong. He won't, though. Some of these analytics nerds hate being proven wrong so much that they will go to the ends of the earth to justify their awful takes.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Logic

[thenorthremembers]

If he was routinely confused by pre-snap disguises he wouldnt be in the league any longer.  No amount of arm can cover up for not knowing how to read a defense or knowing where to throw the ball.

 

 

[BearNorth]

30 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Thats probably true.  Honestly I'd be fine if he threw a few more 50/50 balls. Diggs and Davis fight for the ball well even though they don't have elite size.  They position themselves well and of course there is a chance to draw a PI.  

Davis has elite size for a WR.  227 pounds is crossing into Megatron territory.

 

[LanderPoke]

The ringer is so corny. Who reads that *****? High school girls?

 

The QBs have little pictures of their strengths lmao. Josh had "got some dog in him". So stupid and juvenile.

Edited September 6, 2022 by LanderPoke

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

58 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Stop with the facts. Is it not better to just let idiocy reign?

Absolutely. Tua’s not on that list.  

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

19 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If he was routinely confused by pre-snap disguises he wouldnt be in the league any longer.  No amount of arm can cover up for not knowing how to read a defense or knowing where to throw the ball.

 

 

I think that's why Rosen is almost out of the league.

 

Rosen has good arm strength

[The Red King]

If Allen can be fooled so easily, the hoodie would have done so.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

24 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Davis has elite size for a WR.  227 pounds is crossing into Megatron territory.

 

Is he really up to 227 now? Dude has been killing the gym.

[3rdnlng]

33 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If he was routinely confused by pre-snap disguises he wouldnt be in the league any longer.  No amount of arm can cover up for not knowing how to read a defense or knowing where to throw the ball.

 

 

Is it too late to get Josh Rosen?

[mjt328]

These were issues 3-4 years ago.  Today... not so much.

Every 8-10 games, Josh Allen has consistently grown in some aspect of his play.  If he can come close to maintaining his play from the last postseason, every record on the books will fall this season.

 

Short ball accuracy hasn't been a problem since early 2019.  Deep ball accuracy hasn't been a problem since the end of 2019.

 

I'm sure even veteran QBs have issues with disguised coverage sometimes, especially when the O-Line is letting through lots of pressure.  But I honestly think Allen is one of the smartest QBs in the league with breaking down defenses.  He's very underrated in this area, since most focus on his physical skills instead.

 

Not sure what he's talking about with "timing" on the offense.  What makes Allen special is his ability to extend the play, beyond what the coordinator designed on paper.  This should not be a criticism, unless you are doing the same to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by mjt328

[CSBill]

I read the article. The measurements are subject enough that he can say whatever he is predisposed to say. And really, how can anyone measure a pre-snap read and reaction? You can’t. There are so many unknowns and variables. The entire article is an exercise in confirming his own biases. 

[Green Lightning]

Honestly we know what we have in Josh. If that idiot writer still has his head up his *ss, who cares and why waste time reading such crap?

[Putin]

5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Who the HELL is Steven Ruiz??

Not sure but he should stick to boxing 

[Rubes]

1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said:

Is it too late to get Josh Rosen?

 

Sometimes I think it would be entertaining to see the Bills ultimately pick up Rosen just to make him the #3 QB  and relegate him to the practice squad, as a huge troll of the NFL draft gurus.

 

[fergie's ire]

I suggest that anyone who thinks Allen still gets regularly fooled pre-snap look at a breakdown of either of the last 2 Patriot games.  Belichick is famous for fooling quarterbacks, particularly young ones.  In the first game they started out with 2 high safeties (the book on how to slow down the Bills) and Allen ate them alive.  So he switched to other defenses and tried about everything and each time Josh would make the adjustment and play it right.  I've seen more thorough breakdowns of those games but this one by Chris Simms about week 13 is pretty good.  

 

[Southern_Bills]

If he is fooled right now pre-snap, they better pray he never figures it out.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Would Bill Belichick

seek out the opponents Locker Room

and ask to personally speak to ANY other QB like he did with Josh if he 

was is easily confused?

 

 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Is he really up to 227 now? Dude has been killing the gym.

 

Look at the films on BuffaloBills.com.

His personal trainer Bert is also his chef.  The guy talks nutrition like Rusty Jones.  

 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Didn’t know who Steven Ruiz was yesterday…don’t know today…. And won’t know tomorrow…