Is Allen routinely fooled by pre-snap disguises?

[Matt_In_NH]

So is his accuracy spotty or can he throw it as well as anyone in the history of the sport?  I don't know about the presnap reads but that could be true since he holds onto the ball longer than all other QB's.  I think it could be that he does not trust his presnap reads and prefers to know the guy is open and throw it.  He said as much with the Simms interview.  He is not as much a 1-2-3 ball out on time to a spot.....I am ok with that!  He also needs to run people over less often than he was last year.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matt_In_NH

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

Sorry, I'm not going to trust a guy who has Geno Smith ranked as the #22 QB in the NFL, or Trevor Lawrence at 14.

 

Hell, even saying Herbert is number 3 is pretty crazy. 

Or Joe Burrow at 9 

[MJS]

Just a lazy take. Everyone said Allen sucked. He is dominating now, so to explain it they are just saying that he is so physically gifted that he overcomes those things about him that should make him bad.

 

But it is a bunch of bull. Allen has progressively made strides in not just the physical aspects of the game, but the mental as well. He beats both zone and man coverage. He makes correct reads. He looks off safeties. He doesn't stare down receivers (well, sometimes he does, like most QB's). He is just as cerebral as he is physically gifted.

[nedboy7]

Better to overthrow than the short ball. 

[Utah John]

As far as being fooled by defenses, the only people I'd listen to are professional coaches.  They watch tape to see what defensive alignments show, and what the QB does in response, and then what the D does.  They can decide after the fact whether the QB made a good decision, evaluating what the D was going to do.  

 

It is entirely possible that Josh sees a D, makes a call in response, and has it not work out to the point where there's a negative play or he has to ad lib something.  Only someone who can accurately decide what all the parts of that process are can say whether the QB got fooled.  

 

No one being perfect, I'd imagine the QBs who do the best at decoding what a D will do, are the most experienced, the smartest, and the ones who study tape the most (and learn from it, not just watching).  Josh seems to have great football IQ, to the point where even the slightest "tell" from any of the defensive players can give the story away.  

 

So whether he routinely gets fooled, I don't think any of us can say, but I don't think the writer can say either.

 

 

[GoBills808]

People still clinging to the idea that he's just a big strong meathead like it's 2019 smh

 

The film is literally out there

[DCbillsfan]

53 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

Yep.  Overthrew Sanders for a TD in the Steelers game.  Hits that one and it's probably a different outcome.

[Royale with Cheese]

 

[Herc11]

Someone needs to write an article ranking sports writers and state the stats on their predictions, hot takes, and accuracy.

[Rocky Landing]

54 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

I think part of that is that he will sometimes throw the ball away, but keep it low enough that maybe a receiver will be able to get a high-point on it. I believe that's what happened in the first TD in the WC game to Knox. The play had broken down, Allen was throwing it away, but knew Knox was right at the back of the EZ, and gave him the opportunity to make a play on it.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

People still clinging to the idea that he's just a big strong meathead like it's 2019 smh

 

The film is literally out there

Real film and not just replays 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

NFL Writer for The Ringer

 

So, a guy from the Ringer (a .com sports site whose HQ is in Los Angeles) comes out with a not too great critique of the Bills QB

just in time for the opening game between the 2 teams.

 

Right.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

didn’t Allen have the best or one of the best deep balls last season? Swore I read that somewhere

I have an odd take on this...

I think there is a perception among some that Allen doesn't throw deep very often, and I think this is a result of the NFL's camera coverage. They tend to get the closest shots they can accurately get, and that will sometimes obscure distance. And, Allen has so much velocity on his throws-- especially the deep throws-- that there is far less arc compared to many other QBs.

 

There's a perfect example of this in the WC game vs. the Pats*. Allen, and Jones each had a throw to the exact same corner of the EZ, from the exact same hashmark on the field. Jones' throw has so much more arc on it, that it looks like a longer throw (and, indeed, hangs in the air almost an entire second longer). Allen's throw was a 40-yard rope. If you put the camera angle closer to the play, and track the ball through the air, the throw with the higher arc will seem like a longer throw.

 

And that is my tinfoil hat analysis of the day...

[JohnNord]

Saying that he “struggles with pre-snap” is a critique that he probably could make in 2020 and into the first half of last season.  But I think Josh really got better at reading defenses toward the end of the season and eventually audibled or figured out where to go with the ball when facing two high safeties.  
 

The rest of his write up makes sense.  Josh is not technically perfect but his athletic ability allows him to get away with it.  

Edited September 6, 2022 by JohnNord

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have an odd take on this...

I think there is a perception among some that Allen doesn't throw deep very often, and I think this is a result of the NFL's camera coverage. They tend to get the closest shots they can accurately get, and that will sometimes obscure distance. And, Allen has so much velocity on his throws-- especially the deep throws-- that there is far less arc compared to many other QBs.

 

There's a perfect example of this in the WC game vs. the Pats*. Allen, and Jones each had a throw to the exact same corner of the EZ, from the exact same hashmark on the field. Jones' throw has so much more arc on it, that it looks like a longer throw (and, indeed, hangs in the air almost an entire second longer). Allen's throw was a 40-yard rope. If you put the camera angle closer to the play, and track the ball through the air, the throw with the higher arc will seem like a longer throw.

 

And that is my tinfoil hat analysis of the day...

interesting theory. I kinda like it. A lot of Josh throws are low arc and look effortless so it’s possible they don’t seem as deep as they are. 

[Royale with Cheese]

It's true and his stats reflect it.  

[JohnNord]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

So, a guy from the Ringer (a .com sports site whose HQ is in Los Angeles) comes out with a not too great critique of the Bills QB

just in time for the opening game between the 2 teams.

 

Right.

No correlation there…but this writer has been dogging Josh since he came out of Wyoming.  So many Bills fans enjoyed dunking on him on Twitter.  
 

It should be noted that Ruiz quite often spoke on racism in the NFL in the past including the infamous pre-draft tweets Allen wrote in high school.  IMO I feel he was very much biased toward Josh when evaluating him
 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by JohnNord

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Who the HELL is Steven Ruiz??

I dunno, but I don’t like him.

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Saying that he “struggles with pre-snap” is a critique that he probably could make in 2020 and into the first half of last season.  But I think Josh really got better at reading defenses toward the end of the season and eventually audibled or figured out where to go with the ball when facing two high safeties.  
 

The rest of his write up makes sense.  Josh is not technically perfect but his athletic ability allows him to get away with it.  

You mean, "Allen's accuracy is spotty" is something you agree with? I thought this narrative had been put to rest.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

I mean maybe he's pointing to the Jacksonville game? But the team as a whole didn't perform well that day. 

 

I'd say all QBs get fooled now and then. But I wouldn't say "routinely" for Josh, not based on watching him his entire career and seeing the steady improvements in his game. Also, go watch that half hour chat he had with Chris Simms last week. Lot of great insight on how the dude thinks and sees things out there. Sounds way too informed and intelligent to be a guy who's "routinely" tricked by disguised coverages. 

 

Also, I heard Steven Ruiz talking about Josh's mama, therefore the dude is a bum.

 

That int Josh threw to "the other Josh Allen" was definitely what comes to my mind.   But, Josh was under pressure and moving right so I do not think he could see that TOJA had dropped into coverage or where he was (moving to the defensive left.)  Difference being that I think Josh was playing it based on what he was able to see post snap not based on any pre snap read.  

[JohnNord]

26 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

Yep.  Overthrew Sanders for a TD in the Steelers game.  Hits that one and it's probably a different outcome.

There are other examples that you can find with ball placement as well, which is part of the reason why I think the YAC for Bills WR’s have been so low.  
 

Josh is never going to be a pinpoint accurate passer but he’s still good enough in other areas to overcome

[TheBrownBear]

Well, if this Ruiz chap is right, then...

 

I want a QB with some slow eyes

I want a passer with a lack of touch

I want somebody who will improvise

Not check it down in a heated rush

I want somebody who will crush their guys

I want a QB with some slow eyes

 

[JohnNord]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

It's true and his stats reflect it.  

How so?  Completion percentage?

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

No correlation there…but this writer has been dogging Josh since he came out of Wyoming.  So many Bills fans enjoyed dunking on him on Twitter.  
 

It should be noted that Ruiz quite often spoke on facials issues in the NFL in the past including the infamous pre-draft tweets Allen wrote in high school.  IMO I feel he was very much biased toward Josh when evaluating him
 

 

 

My connection of his dots is as valid as his observations.

Sometimes I'm wrong I will admit, I still got some land I bought outside of Letchworth State Park for sale.

[K-9]

He seldom appears fooled by much anymore. And he’s as good as anyone at moving safeties with his eyes post snap at this stage of his career. His ability to extend plays gives his receivers time to read the post snap defense and adjust as well. When it comes to Allen, pre-snap disguises just aren’t as effective as they might otherwise be vs other QBs. He’s gonna make you commit post snap regardless. 
 

Ask Belichick how he feels about Josh’s susceptibility to pre snap disguises. Three of the last four games vs. the Pats*** Bellyache has tried everything under the sun to confuse JA and Allen has toyed with them. If not for two bad weather games that effectively took the ball out of Allen’s hands, it would be five straight games of Allen dominating NE***. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

I'm not the guru either, but here's my take.

 

I think all QBs are fooled. I think the real question is how often does a QB get fooled, relative to other QBs, right? I think both IQ and experience matters. I think one's willingness to study, review tape and continue learning, matters, right? Josh has a strong IQ, I don't think there is any denying that. It sure seems to me that Josh is spending a lot of time learning, getting smarter and perfecting his skillset. What Josh lacks, compared to some of the QBs is obviously experience. I can't argue that Josh is anywhere near where Brady and Rogers are, contrasting their experience.

 

Comparing Josh's experience factor to his class of QBs, I don't think Josh is deficient. Rather, I'd argue that he is exceeding the experience level.

 

I think there is a panic under pressure component too.  Josh thrives on the chaos and is inclined to extend a play but some QBs don't want to take the hits or battle to extend the play, thus they are more likely to get rid of the ball based on a faulty pre snap read.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

How so?  Completion percentage?

 

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I almost posted this on the board and my summation of the writeup was similar to the air raid tweet. Ruiz has been BRUTAL to allen all the way up into the middle of last year. He has fought his ascension tooth and nail as a writer on that site and this write up reads as though its making him ill to even have to put him at 5.... i got the same feel from it as the dude that made the tweet.

 

and ruiz' pre-snap thoughts go against everything thats been coming out of camp.... both fowler and giardi, in the last 2 weeks, have reported that everyone inside the building claims allen is now at his best making checks at the line and completely owning the offense.

 

Thanks for this.

 

I read what he wrote and it didn't make sense with what we've been seeing the last few years. Unless this is an Advanced Analytics bro who went all-in on Allen sucking in 2018. 

 

It sort of covers his butt. "Allen isn't a good QB, he's just has SUCH GOOD TOOLS it covers up for the weaknesses that I predicted in 2018. So see! I wasn't wrong!" 

[Rampage]

What metric is being used to say he is "routinely fooled", we need to know that before taking this thought seriously.

 

From what I've seen he makes the right read most of the time and other than a few stinkers against Atlanta and Jacksonville last year he was efficient as a passer.

[JohnNord]

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

You mean, "Allen's accuracy is spotty" is something you agree with? I thought this narrative had been put to rest.

I think that’s overstated.  I think “spotty” accuracy in reference to Allen has changed a bit.   He doesn’t mean the QB that missed flares to the RB of the backfield in 2018.  
 

I think he means Josh doesn’t  have the same pinpoint accuracy that the other top QB’s do. I’ve seen this before when his ball placement isn’t perfect but it’s good enough to get the job done.

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

LOL

[HOUSE]

I told ya

 

[H2o]

[pocoboy]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

 

I mean, those deep balls are just a piece of cake to connect on every time.

[Charles Romes]

Josh had four bad games last year which were on him.  His stats also took a huge hit because he played in 3-4 wind games at home, the pats being just ridiculous. 

[gordong]

cut the f-ing bum...  now we need a QB

 

[Matt_In_NH]

41 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

worse Quarterbacks.........whatever

[K-9]

It would help if these Allen critics actually watched the fricken games and the All 22. They are woefully unprepared to offer up an intellectually honest analysis of his ability as a QB. Zero credibility. 

[Starr Almighty]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Who the HELL is Steven Ruiz??

Come on he's the bagger at register 3 at the Walmart. You know him Steve.

[The Jokeman]

55 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

  

"If quarterbacks weren't allowed to Scramble, Josh Allen Lamar Jackson would go down as one of the worse Quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL"-Cian Fahey

 

Fixed it for you. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by The Jokeman

[billsfan89]

I would like to see a Baldy breakdown or someone else more reputable take before I believe that Josh is routinely fooled