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Bills at Patriots: Predict the Score


Giuseppe Tognarelli

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BUF 13

NE 24

 

I think there's a lot running against the Bills in this game, and unless there is any significant change on the Covid front, I would consider a win to be one of the very most impressive of the McDermott regime. I hope to death I'm wrong about this, but I envision:

 

  • The NE defensive scheme wreaking havoc on the Bills' offensive line, with the rookie Brown at left tackle and several other positions shifted like last week
  • Allen committing a couple of turnovers due to the necessitation of hero mode, which will lead to NE points despite a lackluster NE offensive effort

 

To beat NE, you have to play almost perfectly, and I have a hard time envisioning the Bills doing that with the OL situation being what it is.

 

Of course, the Beasley absence/Covid distraction that we all thought would come at some point is here at the worst of times, and I think this is also at least a mild factor to consider.

 

Other things potentially going against the Bills:

  • Patriots/Belichick coming off of a loss
  • Belichick mad about McDermott not crediting him after MNF game
  • I can't remember the last time the Bills won a big swing game like this, when a win vs. a loss makes such a massive difference to the team's prospects
  • The Bills have struggled mightily in Sunday afternoon games broadcasted to a large, non-regional audience, going 1-6 since 2019 (see below)*
  • Blue pants are still a possibility as of this writing, although they did wear them last year in the big win at NE

 

*Here is how the Bills have fared since 2019 in Sunday afternoon games broadcasted to large, non-regional audiences:

 

2021, Week 14: @ TB, L

2021, Week 1: PIT, L
2020, Week 10: @ ARI, L
2020, Week 4: @ LV, W

2019, Week 14: BAL, L

2019, Week 8: PHI, L
2019, Week 4: NE, L

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Thoughtful analysis, OP.

 

I don't think the Bills have to play close to perfectly, though.  For either team, an early lead is key to try to make the game favorable for their style of play. If the Pats get an early lead, they can do what they did last time - pound the ball, try to keep the Bills O off the field, and play sound D.

 

If the Bills get an early lead, it forces the Pats to rely more on the overrated rookie game manager with the weak arm.

 

Bills 34

Patriots 15

 

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this isnt the tom brady patriots. they don't have to play perfect. quite the contrary, NE has to play perfect. 
not sure what a TV broadcast has to do with anything. 

blue pants there might be something to that.... 

our O line is going to get abused by matt judon and barmore... if only there were plays that would beat the blitz and discourage it... there arent any in dabolls bag of tricks, so.. you're probably right about taking an L...  

If mcdermott walks the talk... they should win. if not, well.... 10-7 will get it done most likely.. but we'd be playing them a third time. 

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13 minutes ago, teef said:

the list of things potentially going against the bills my be the dumbest piece of ***** i've seen around here.

 

cakewalk you weak minded *****!

Belichick's record off of losses has been widely discussed, he's known to use bulletin board material, it's true that the Bills have sucked in swing games, the record in national windows has been abysmal, and our record in blue pants is abysmal... all legitimate stuff, as dumb as it may seem.

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Assuming no major COVID news/swings and decent weather, I like the Bills in this contest.  The second half of the Tampa game, and most of the Carolina game, showed that our offense can get rolling against a top-tier defense.  Why do we think the Pats are any different?  So a key to my thinking is that the Bills at some point will start rolling and scoring TDs.  And we have the sort of defense to hold them in check.  They don't have the sort of offense to score a lot of points quickly.  Given the above, I'm thinking something like 30-17 or 30-21 Bills.

Edited by TheWei44
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I think we win a close, tight, maybe even somewhat low scoring game.

 

These 2 teams are statistically VERY similar right now, and we have the much better QB.

 

If McDermott can't leverage Josh's inherent advantage into a win, I want a coach who can.

 

 

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Bills 24

Pats 20

 

Buffalo wins a tight affair to take back the division. The Pats get the ball first and Jones drives the field until their drive stalls at the Bills 10 and settled for a FG. Allen and the offense respond going the length of the field and cap the drive with a Breida TD from 5 yds out on rush to go up 7-3. Both teams trade field possession on their next drives until the Bills get the ball on Diggs gets a 30 yard completion down to the NE 5 yard line. Dawson Knox gets a TD in the redzone and Buffalo is up 14-3. The Patriots move down the field before half and Stevenson runs a TD in from 15 yards out to get the game to 14-10. Out of half the Bills move down field, but Judon sacks Allen and Bass hits a 45 yard FG to put the Bills up 17-10. After a few traded drives the Pats get a FG thanks to a big completion to Jonnu Smith inside the Buffalo 30 to make it 17-13 entering the 4th quarter. Allen leads a big drive that takes 6 minutes and runs in the TD himself to put the Bills up 24-13 with 8 minutes to go. The Patriots drive downfield and CBS broadcasters won't shut up about Jones who does throw a TD to Aghlor from 10 yards out to make the game 24-20. Buffalo runs some clock but the Patriots get one last drive. At the Bills 40 yard line with 30 seconds left Taron Johnson jumps a route for an INT to seal the game for the Bills. Buffalo finally wins a one score game while taking back the division lead.

 

Allen 21-30  270 yds 1 TD 58 yds rushing 1 TD

Singletary 63 yds 12 rushes

Diggs 115 yds 7 rec

Johnson 2 tackles 1 INT 1 PD

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15 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Belichick's record off of losses has been widely discussed, he's known to use bulletin board material, it's true that the Bills have sucked in swing games, the record in national windows has been abysmal, and our record in blue pants is abysmal... all legitimate stuff, as dumb as it may seem.

i just love giving you a tough time giuseppe.  you're prediction is just as good as any.  

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1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I can't remember the last time the Bills won a big swing game like this, when a win vs. a loss makes such a massive difference to the team's prospects

In 2019 we went into Pittsburgh where a win (at the time) meant playoff certainty and won.

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On December 20,1964 the Bills went into Boston to play the Patriots with division title on the line. A Pats win would've given them an 11-2-1 to the Bills 11-3. If this had happened the Bills wouldn't have won the AFL Championship..................But, it didn't happen the Bills won 24-14 just like they will this Sunday.

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