Line Shift in SF Game: Bills now Underdogs

[Motorin']

3 minutes ago, Tuel Time said:

 

He's been practicing with his volleyball sized ankles and knee.

They're cantaloupe sized. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

They're cantaloupe sized. 

deeeze??

Edited December 4, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[C.Biscuit97]

29 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You can't lose to a back up QB like Mullins if you are a legitimate playoff team IMO. 

Exactly.  The funniest thing is Mullens looked better as a rookie than right now.  
 

it’s a game on a neutral site. The 49ers are very well coached (Shanahan is one of the few nepotism coaches who is really good) and scrappy but this needs to be an easy win. 

[ngbills]

37 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You think we'll play Mullens like we played Mahomes? That's an interesting take.

No but the Niners will try to control the clock and run the ball on us. They game plan will be to not rely on Mullens by dominating the line of scrimmage and running it down our throats. Not saying that I think they will be successful but those betting on SF are thinking that. 

[RichRiderBills]

46 minutes ago, ngbills said:

No but the Niners will try to control the clock and run the ball on us. They game plan will be to not rely on Mullens by dominating the line of scrimmage and running it down our throats. Not saying that I think they will be successful but those betting on SF are thinking that. 

 

Ok...but the Niners usually work the edges w the run game and look for the corner.

 

Plus, no one has beaten us like that this year w a bad QB or the pass game clicking. Pats nearly did, but this was a bad weather game. 

 

The chiefs have so much talent, Kelce and Mahomes runs on 3rd down killed us. Still had to honor it and could not stack the box. Titans games Tannyhill runs on 3rd down killed us. Cards same. 

 

Look up how many rushing yards Mullens has.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Ok...but the Niners usually work the edges w the run game and look for the corner.

 

Plus, no one has beaten us like that this year w a bad QB or the pass game clicking. Pats nearly did, but this was a bad weather game. 

 

The chiefs have so much talent, Kelce and Mahomes runs on 3rd down killed us. Still had to honor it and could not stack the box. Titans games Tannyhill runs on 3rd down killed us. Cards same. 

 

Look up how many rushing yards Mullens has.

 

 

 

 

I agree. Look at games when we gave up a lot of rushing on the stat sheet - Chiefs, Cards, Pats, Rams. Maybe not the Rams, but other three have a QB that can run. That said the Bills have been shaky at times stopping anything on the ground. Much better as of late but there were times when you knew teams were running and they still were going for 7-8 yards at will. 

I dont know if the Niners will be successful. I can see how some may think they match up well with the Bills. They likely do put up 20+ points on us mostly from the running attack, but we can easily put up 30+ on them. I am tempted to open up a draftkings or similar account so I can put some $ down on this one. Bills to win and maybe also take the over. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You think we'll play Mullens like we played Mahomes? That's an interesting take.

Bills will probably be pressing the line of scrimmage hard this game.

16 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Ok...but the Niners usually work the edges w the run game and look for the corner.

 

Plus, no one has beaten us like that this year w a bad QB or the pass game clicking. Pats nearly did, but this was a bad weather game. 

 

The chiefs have so much talent, Kelce and Mahomes runs on 3rd down killed us. Still had to honor it and could not stack the box. Titans games Tannyhill runs on 3rd down killed us. Cards same. 

 

Look up how many rushing yards Mullens has.

 

 

 

 

 

Mullens only has 1 scramble and has the highest pressured rate in the NFL at 30% and has been hit 36 times, which is 5 more times than Allen in like half the number of games played.

 

The Bills should be coming after them all day and just paying attention to screens to the backs. 

[Hebert19]

We are going to come at him early and often.  I think they will be lucky to score 10 if I'm honest. 

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Hebert19 said:

We are going to come at him early and often.  I think they will be lucky to score 10 if I'm honest. 

The lowest they've scored this year is 13 against the Saints.  It's a difficult game to predict because I've seen the 49ers blow out the Pats and then get blown out at home against the Packers.  I'd pry put it in the 20 to 27 range in points scored for both teams. 

[SoCal Deek]

You're all forgetting that we have the new and improved AJ Klein to throw at them! 😊

[BuffBillsForLife]

Losing to Nick Mullens would not inspire confidence, that's for sure.  Hopefully the Bills can figure out how to set the edge because the 9ers are great at running outside.

[BillsFan130]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Honestly, this should be an easy win. I salute SF for even being 5-6 at this point but they are a shell of themselves.  I hate betting the Bills but I am seriously considering it.  You can’t lose to Nick Mullens and a team without their best 2 players on offense and defense. 

This won’t be an easy win IMO.

 

I ultimately think the bills win, but I think it’s going to be very close.

 

Monday night on the road against a team who can run the ball very well, coupled with a good defence. It’s not going to be easy.

[aristocrat]

shanahan is a very good coach and a guy that can outcoach another squad with having zero talent.  

[Beast]

4 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Joshy may not play which is good. Let him rest and heal  for what it's more important. The post season. 

 

You need to stop with your crap.

[mannc]

That’s is a huge move in the betting line.  I’ve never seen a swing like that absent major injury news involving a QB.

[Matt_In_NH]

I'm not surprised, I see that is kind of a toss up.  SF is better than their record and are now playing for their playoff lives.  This will not be an easy out.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Bills active roster very healthy headed into weekend (radio.com) Just sayin'

[RichRiderBills]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

I agree. Look at games when we gave up a lot of rushing on the stat sheet - Chiefs, Cards, Pats, Rams. Maybe not the Rams, but other three have a QB that can run. That said the Bills have been shaky at times stopping anything on the ground. Much better as of late but there were times when you knew teams were running and they still were going for 7-8 yards at will. 

I dont know if the Niners will be successful. I can see how some may think they match up well with the Bills. They likely do put up 20+ points on us mostly from the running attack, but we can easily put up 30+ on them. I am tempted to open up a draftkings or similar account so I can put some $ down on this one. Bills to win and maybe also take the over. 

 

I was thinking of throwing down on this one too. It was a good line, and some ignorant betting has moved it. I dont think you can win consistantly w just being a good running team, again look at the top ten rushing teams. A few .sub 500 teams in there, also a few teams that scare no one. These offenses are just too good. I feel the Bills are a top 5 offense, despite the stats having us at 11. To quote Tasker yesterday,  we are very, very good.

 

Can 49ers shut down the Bills? Maybe...but I think too much has to line up for the niners to prevail. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[Inigo Montoya]

The 49ers are hobbled with injuries on both sides of the ball.  Josh shows up to play under the bright lights. If not for the Zona Hail Mary, Josh and the Bills would be coming into town riding a five game win streak.  The Bills' defense is going to be run blitzing and daring Mullins to make them pay with his arm.  Mullins can't push the ball down the field.  Listened to one of the San Fran beat reporters this week saying that the San Fran offense is essentially an "18 yard bubble" with Mullens under center because he doesn't have the arm strength anymore to effectively throw the ball down the field further than that.  That will allow Poyer and Hyde to cheat up on the line to help in run support.

 

I think the Bills win by two scores.

 

 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

I think game plan for the bills will be no big plays and when the 49ers get the ball in the red zone force mullins to throw the ball - if you force mullins to have to score the tds I like the bills chances

[QLBillsFan]

Significant national media leaning heavy 49ers on Monday. I think many lazy who have not seen D improvement and still think JA is inaccurate. Tough game need to shut down run and force Mullins to beat us. Bills work run and play action. Bills 27-19. Better team wins. 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

shanahan is a very good coach and a guy that can outcoach another squad with having zero talent.  

I lost Shanahan when he was ATL OC and went for style points with lead over Pats. Mis managed calls and gave Tommy time for two scores. Last year SB not able to close it out, good but not great. Bills really being under valued as viable team right now. I like our coaching ( at least wash) and our talent at QB (advantage)

 

[CaptnCoke11]

I like that line shift.  Load up on Buffalo 

[Bronxbomber21]

I'm going big on buffalo they show out in Primetime when the got the WHITE FACEMASK 

[BillsfaninSB]

7 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I'm going big on buffalo they show out in Primetime when the got the WHITE FACEMASK 

They lost to the Jets in ‘17 on Thursday night with the exact same uni they will wear in AZ.

That loss almost wrecked the season that year. 
 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by BillsfaninSB

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

I lost Shanahan when he was ATL OC and went for style points with lead over Pats. Mis managed calls and gave Tommy time for two scores. Last year SB not able to close it out, good but not great. Bills really being under valued as viable team right now. I like our coaching ( at least wash) and our talent at QB (advantage)

 

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

Edited December 5, 2020 by dave mcbride

[RichRiderBills]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

 

These are a nice stats, but odd to cherry pick the last 3 meetings. They split in '15 and got swept against a great Falcons team in '16 that blew through everything. The Panthers were 6-10 that year. I dont know if 1-3 tells me much over those two years. The players were so different. 

[TigerJ]

22 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

This is the second straight game with tons of late money going against Buffalo.  The Chargers point spread shifted a bunch and a lot of people lost big betting LA.

 

 

So, people who bet against Buffalo last week are trying to make up their losses by going against Buffalo this week?   Fools and their money are easily parted.

[Jpsredemption]

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

[Mat68]

The house wins.  SF is fools gold.  Buffalo wins fairly easy imo.  This is the week Buffalo scores a defensive TD.

2 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

Buffalo is not losing to Mullens.  Buffalo is top 5 in the league vs outside zone.  The house wins.  Most of the money on SF the books laugh all the way to the bank.  

[Jpsredemption]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The house wins.  SF is fools gold.  Buffalo wins fairly easy imo.  This is the week Buffalo scores a defensive TD.

Buffalo is not losing to Mullens.  Buffalo is top 5 in the league vs outside zone.  The house wins.  Most of the money on SF the books laugh all the way to the bank.  

I hope you are right 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Jpsredemption said:

There should be zero shock that San Francisco is in the same class as the Bills. It’s like the Bills are some dominant force that just blows teams out every week. Not true and hasn’t been all year. 

 

What team is some dominant force that just blows teams out every week.  I don't think there is one in the NFL this year.  There may be a couple that do so on occasion like the Chiefs against Denver or something.

[Doc]

My site has the game as a "pick'em."

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I don't see a huge difference between Mullens and Jimmy G. Other than bank account balance and good looks. That said, I really do think our defense is starting to gel. 49ers will try to run the ball down our throats but as mentioned by a poster previously i don't see a repeat of the Chiefs game because they don't have Mahomes and Hill/Kelce for our secondary to worry about. I think we keep them to 20 or less. Bills score 23+

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

My site has the game as a "pick'em."

 

I still have Bills at +1(Bovada)  but i fear it will also go to pick em. I need to bet my teaser sooner rather than later but it's hard when you bet six team teasers. You are always waiting on a line or two to move in a more favorable direction. I LOVE the Bills at +7 but only love them at +6. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The last three times Shanahan has faced off against McDermott defenses, his offense put up 48 and 33 points (both Falcons wins) in 2016, and Carolina suffered its only loss in 2015 in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta in the second last game of the season. Atlanta put up nearly 400 yards in that game against the best defense in the league, statistically speaking.

Wow....that's problematic 

[El Guapo]

My book has it at Bills +1

[Cruiserplayer]

I’m leaning toward the moneyline at 100 vs the +1 at -105.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/4/2020 at 4:55 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

The 49ers are hobbled with injuries on both sides of the ball.  Josh shows up to play under the bright lights. If not for the Zona Hail Mary, Josh and the Bills would be coming into town riding a five game win streak.  The Bills' defense is going to be run blitzing and daring Mullins to make them pay with his arm.  Mullins can't push the ball down the field.  Listened to one of the San Fran beat reporters this week saying that the San Fran offense is essentially an "18 yard bubble" with Mullens under center because he doesn't have the arm strength anymore to effectively throw the ball down the field further than that.  That will allow Poyer and Hyde to cheat up on the line to help in run support.

 

I think the Bills win by two scores.

 

I responded to you when you posted this in another thread so I'll link it here. 

 

Bottom line:

-shots beyond 18 yds are a low percentage of attempts even for pass heavy teams, typically 14-15% (high of 19% - Rodgers; low of 10% - Tannehill)

-Mullins takes 12% of his shots >=18 yds, which is a bit lower than the average "top gun" guy like Mahomes, Big Ben, Wilson, Rodgers, Allen, Murray, Herbert - but similar to other guys operating in run-heavy offenses like Tennessee.  His completion percentage on those shots is a bit better than the typical 39-48% of the "Gunners" at 62.5%.

 

So I think this press idea that he doesn't throw deep as much because he can't is a bit unproven by data, vs that he's following an offensive philosophy of take fewer shots but hit more of them.

 

The guy did do this: "Mullens finished his collegiate career at Southern Miss as the career passing leader in every statistical category.^[15] His 11,994 yards passing and 87 touchdown passes dwarfed the 7,695 yards and 52 touchdowns registered by former NFL great Brett Favre during his four years with the Golden Eagles."

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I responded to you when you posted this in another thread so I'll link it here. 

 

Bottom line:

-shots beyond 18 yds are a low percentage of attempts even for pass heavy teams, typically 14-15% (high of 19% - Rodgers; low of 10% - Tannehill)

-Mullins takes 12% of his shots >=18 yds, which is a bit lower than the average "top gun" guy like Mahomes, Big Ben, Wilson, Rodgers, Allen, Murray, Herbert - but similar to other guys operating in run-heavy offenses like Tennessee.  His completion percentage on those shots is a bit better than the typical 39-48% of the "Gunners" at 62.5%.

 

So I think this press idea that he doesn't throw deep as much because he can't is a bit unproven by data, vs that he's following an offensive philosophy of take fewer shots but hit more of them.

 

The guy did do this: "Mullens finished his collegiate career at Southern Miss as the career passing leader in every statistical category.^[15] His 11,994 yards passing and 87 touchdown passes dwarfed the 7,695 yards and 52 touchdowns registered by former NFL great Brett Favre during his four years with the Golden Eagles."

 

 

Still it does not matter cause your also talking about the deep throws to.. 40 yards plus. What he did in college does not necessarily translate to NFL.

 

show me some raw stats on what the % is on throws between 20-30 yards then compare to this QB. Again 18 yards plus is a huge spectrum  I also said same reply in that other topic and you never replied to it. You can only generalize stuff to much.. Break it down.

[Dablitzkrieg]

On 12/4/2020 at 10:57 PM, BillsfaninSB said:

They lost to the Jets in ‘17 on Thursday night with the exact same uni they will wear in AZ.

That loss almost wrecked the season that year. 
 

 

 

They wore the red uniform that day I was at that game.