Say bye to Shaq?

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Could've packaged him for McCaffrey or Kupp who would've pushed us over the hump

 

 

Trying to trade him for either of those two? At the end of last year? Please. Packaged is right, it would have taken an awful lot more in the package than Lawson.

 

And neither of those guys makes us competitive for a Super Bowl last year. They don't get us over that hump.

[thenorthremembers]

So we dont wanna pay 13 million for 6.5 sacks but we are cool with paying over 20 for 8?   Grass is greener syndrome hit this board hard.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

38 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Trying to trade him for either of those two? At the end of last year? Please. Packaged is right, it would have taken an awful lot more in the package than Lawson.

 

And neither of those guys makes us competitive for a Super Bowl last year. They don't get us over that hump.

 

 

...nor would their potentially excessive tariffs fit the "Beane Way" IMO................

[Niagara Bill]

Letting him test market is the only way to get the information for resigning him. We should not over pay for Shaq. We should learn our lesson from Dareus. Shaq has some of the same historic troubling times. He finally got serious last year. He wasted at least 2 yrs of his career and we paid for it.

Keep him for a goid price. Let him walk if offers are extreme. He is not a saviour 

[skibum]

I think the Bills should pay him. They have the cap space to pay market value. By declining his 5th year option, they told Shaq he had to prove himself if he wanted to stay a Bill. He responded with his best year by far, so I think it would be a good message to the rest of the team to sign him to a lucrative, but hopefully not insane, contract. If he wants one, that is. 

[Troll Toll]

9 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

He has developed very slowly....not nicely.   He isn't playing like a Rnd 1 until year 4......and still behaving like a kid on the field.  Let him walk!

He still looks out of shape to me when I see him. I don’t trust him with a big contract at all.

[wppete]

He’s going to get payed, good fir Shaq. I trust Beane, hasn’t let down.

[nucci]

10 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

kinda knew this when they declined his 5th year option

[Victory Formation]

Well, I think Buffalo is in a great position to tak AJ Epenesa or Yetur Gross-Matos. I think we go EDGE in RD1. Ruggs, Lamb and Jeudy will be long gone. Probably looking at Mims, Claypool or Jefferson RD2. That’s how I see the board playing out. I think Beane will fill our needs in FA and let the board come to us. Could be WR, could be OT but I believe it’ll be Epenesa or Gross-Matos at #22. Could see us adding Kenny Willekes or Alton Robinson RD3 and perhaps another WR in RD4.

[H2o]

10 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

He sees all of the pass rushers getting the Franchise Tag and knows he's about to get his pay day. I said yesterday that all of the tags coming out is working highly in his favor. He's turned into a good player over the last couple of years and I hate to see him go, but someone will likely give him a deal we aren't willing to match and that's if he even wants to come back here in the first place. 

[JMF2006]

10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s about what I think he’s going to get. He feels like about a $10M a year guy. 

 

Romo just got 17m plus to sit in the booth and make some really good assumptions and observations.

 

I would think 12m for 5yrs  with 40m guaranteed is reasonable in todays market.

 

 

9 hours ago, Putin said:

Should have signed him to the 5th year option when we had the chance 

 

He didn't look like he was worth it and most posters on here agreed with management at the time.

[simpleman]

52 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

Letting him test market is the only way to get the information for resigning him. We should not over pay for Shaq. We should learn our lesson from Dareus. Shaq has some of the same historic troubling times. He finally got serious last year. He wasted at least 2 yrs of his career and we paid for it.

Keep him for a goid price. Let him walk if offers are extreme. He is not a saviour 

I too would let him walk if he is offered too much. I would not overpay him. But "He wasted two years." Really? He was injured his first season, the team knew the risk when they drafted him. HE did not waste that year, if anyone wasted it, it was the team that chose to draft him knowing the risk. His second year he was essentially a rookie, learning to play football at the higher NFL "speed". What percent of rookies look fantastic their Rookie year? Only an elite few like Tre look that way, they are the exception rather than the common. While not elite, the last two years he definitely has proven he belongs in the NFL. How did he waste two years? 

While not elite, he is definitely a quality player, and should expect to be paid as such. By Buffalo or another team. The question is how much is a quality player at his position worth?

 

[YoloinOhio]

I like Shaq but I don’t love Shaq... it’s tough because he’s the type of player who you don’t want to overpay for because he isn’t an elite talent but he does enough good things that you need to replace him carefully if he’s gone. Based on Beane’s comments it seems they want to keep him but I anticipate it’s at a certain value they’ve placed on him. That’s the right move with these types of players imo. I’m sure his agent thinks they can do better on the open market. I’m interested to see who the Bills  release/sign/draft at DE. They said last season they needed to get better there. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Let another team over pay him..  

 

This Edge draft class is weak (Chase Young excepted).  That’s only going to raise the value of the FA Edge players. Add in the expectation of a big jump in the cap with the new CBA and things are gonna start to get crazy.

[wppete]

Sign and trade. 

[BarleyNY]

Just now, wppete said:

Sign and trade. 

He doesn’t play in the NBA. 

[SoCal Deek]

I find NFL free agency to be hilarious. The Bills draft a guy in the first round. He hardly performs up to that level for years. Now they have a boatload of money in cap space to resign him and there’s an expectation he’ll get paid by someone else? 

[DCOrange]

I don't see him getting over $10 million a year. I think somewhere in the $8-9 mil range gets it done. Whether that's with Buffalo or somewhere else, we'll see.

 

Even with all the guys getting tagged, there's still a lot of pass rush options on the free agent market, not to mention guys potentially available for trades.

I also don't think the Instagram post really tells us anything; just means free agency begins in two weeks and we've known for awhile now that Beane was fine with him testing the market.

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I find NFL free agency to be hilarious. The Bills draft a guy in the first round. He hardly performs up to that level for years. Now they have a boatload of money in cap space to resign him and there’s an expectation he’ll get paid by someone else? 

It’s a very thin pass rusher market

[CorkScrewHill]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Maybe he's getting married in a couple weeks.  It will definitely get real then.

Doc Brown has hit on something .. I think this tweet could mean lots of things: The marriage thing or he could be thinking on of the below or other thoughts

1) That corona virus thing ... It's about to get real in a couple of weeks.

2) Clemson basketball .. on the outside looking in but ... It's about to get real in a couple of weeks.

3) XFL season winding down ... ... It's about to get real in a couple of weeks.

4) I have a fecal impaction ... It's about to get real in a couple of weeks.

5) I set up my TwoBillsDrive account a few months ago .. and can soon start to post my own threads ... It's about to get real in a couple of weeks.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by CorkScrewHill

[GG]

9 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No but you’d have raised your floor at a bargain price. You would have had less of a need at edge and you’d have had Shaq for less than he got. You could have still chased other options as well but wouldn’t have the hole that currently exists.

 

Not sure I follow the math.  I believe that the cost for the 5th year option was going to be above $10 million and for one season only.  I think his AAV will be less than that, and for a longer term.  

[White Linen]

Paying more than a players value is what free agency is.  He's worth about 8.5 and that's if you feel his production fits nicely into the scheme.  

[Orlando Tim]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Man, you are REALLY concerned about the contracts these guys are getting huh?  Not sure how to make you comfortable with the idea that salaries escalate EVERY SINGLE YEAR with the CBA. The money the league makes grows each year. The player’s salaries are a percentage of that revenue. The new CBA even offers a higher percentage of the revenue (if it’s passed). The players will be getting 48.5% of that revenue. The league is shooting for $25B in revenue when their TV deals expire in 2021!! https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2019/07/15/nfl-revenue-owners-players-billions/
 

Now we can talk about what’s a good investment and what’s a bad one but we certainly don’t need to worry about a couple million dollar overpayment having ANY impact on the team’s ability to do business. Stop looking at the raw number and look at the big picture. It’s 48.5% (or will be) of a rapidly rising overall revenue.

I understand what you are saying but the NBA just had a reckoning when the anticipated increase did not happen. Teams were stuck having overpaid players and lost all flexibility.

[Bring it]

The only ability that Shaq has that is exceptional is setting the edge! Really helped containing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. He has improved at pass rush but I wouldn’t break the bank for him!!

[mjt328]

The same people clamoring to throw $13 million per year at Shaq Lawson are the same people who will complain every single week when he under-performs on that contract, and fails to hit double-digit sacks.  For evidence, go back 3 years on this message board.  You will find post after post complaining about needing a big DT to stuff the run.  Now half the fans want to see Star Lotulelei cut.

 

Even though the Bills have lots of salary cap space, it can disappear quickly.  They need to make wise decisions, and not get themselves stuck with bad long-term contracts.  The extra money they keep this season can be rolled over.  And starting next season (2021), some real impact players will be coming up to free agency.  Jordan Poyer, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano, etc.  A year later we are looking at Tre White, Micah Hyde, John Brown, Jerry Hughes and more.

 

Every F/A season, we hear the myth that salary cap doesn't matter.  That the CBA has rendered it pointless.  That the New Orleans Saints magically finds ways to get around it.  None of this is true.  All over the league, you see teams making tough decisions about which players to keep and which players to let go.  Yes, there are ways to creatively structure contracts.  But the teams that keep rolling are those who draft well, allowing them to easily replace veterans who they must let walk out the door.  Teams that always count on free agency to save them generally have a short shelf-life.

 

 

[ALF]

spotrac has his fair market value  at $7.7M a year 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Trying to trade him for either of those two? At the end of last year? Please. Packaged is right, it would have taken an awful lot more in the package than Lawson.

 

And neither of those guys makes us competitive for a Super Bowl last year. They don't get us over that hump.

CMC would've blocked for Allen on route to our victory in OT at Houston...

[davspo]

I really don't think the tweet changes anything.  There was never a doubt that he was going to test the market, if the Bills didn't make him an offer or if they offered him lower than he thinks he will get paid.  He will go to the highest bidder.  If it is the Bills so be it, if not he is hardly a franchise player.  I do trust this front office.  There is a reason they didn't exercise the option and there is likely a sound reason they did not sign him before the start of free agency.  Don't forget he was inherited from the Rex era.  Let the process play out.  

[YoloinOhio]

17 minutes ago, ALF said:

spotrac has his fair market value  at $7.7M a year 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/shaq-lawson-18967/market-value/

Yep just slightly over Trent Murphy territory from a few years ago 

Edited March 3, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

Not sure I follow the math.  I believe that the cost for the 5th year option was going to be above $10 million and for one season only.  I think his AAV will be less than that, and for a longer term.  

I’m not sure that it will be with the way that these guys have come off the board In FA. This draft is not good at Edge either (excluding Chase Young). Shaq’s value may get pushed up because of those factors. It could have been kicking the can down the road but if you told the Bills, right now, you could have Shaq this year for $10M I think they’d jump at it.

2 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I understand what you are saying but the NBA just had a reckoning when the anticipated increase did not happen. Teams were stuck having overpaid players and lost all flexibility.

The NBA had a MASSIVE spike prior though that slowed (some). There really haven’t been any teams crippled by it. The NFL is a different animal anyways. That TV contract will grow by a lot in 2021. You also need to account for the 2 extra playoff games and another week of regular season games (potentially). It’s apples and oranges in a lot of ways. Someone brought up the NHL earlier too. The revenue model differences between the NFL and NHL is like apples and fire trucks. They are nothing alike because there’s so little TV money in the NHL.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

12 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Could've packaged him for McCaffrey or Kupp who would've pushed us over the hump

 

Um, sure.

 

 

[klos63]

10 hours ago, KD in CA said:

If Lawson was a FA available from another team, how much would Bills fans be clamoring to sign him to a long term deal?

 

I thought so.

That's why it's important to sign your own free agents. You know what you have , you know if he fits in well. Shaq fits in well with what we are doing on defense. I don't know other players out there that are better or will fit in as well for a less amount of money.

[KD in CA]

38 minutes ago, klos63 said:

That's why it's important to sign your own free agents. You know what you have , you know if he fits in well. Shaq fits in well with what we are doing on defense. I don't know other players out there that are better or will fit in as well for a less amount of money.

Your point about fit is certainly valid, but they can’t afford to apply that (at premium $) to every player.  Assuming a $ level commensurate with his play (as an average DE), I’m happy to keep him.

[klos63]

4 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Your point about fit is certainly valid, but they can’t afford to apply that (at premium $) to every player.  Assuming a $ level commensurate with his play (as an average DE), I’m happy to keep him.

I agree, you have to look at the market. Can we replace Shaq and not take a step back?  We had a top defense last year, need to stay on top while the offense adds pieces.

[brianthomas]

13 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Could've packaged him for McCaffrey or Kupp who would've pushed us over the hump

Why settle for just those 2 when you could've packaged Shaq for Derrick Henry? <=== sarcasm

Seriously now, that sounds great & all but I don't even think your trade gets accepted on Madden, yet alone in the real life NFL.

Also the idea of trading him last year just doesn't make much sense either. The Bills were weak at DE while trying to make a run at the playoffs, so you're gonna trade away from that position & make it weaker? We just wouldn't have done that nor should we have, and at the end of the day we didn't.

 

Given the circumstances at the time, it was the right decision not to exercise Shaq's 5th year option... because he hadn't shown enough on the field that warranted it. And now if Shaq will accept a fair deal somewhere in the $7-8 mil/per range i believe we'll extend him. But if he wants more in the $10 per range then I think we spend that money elsewhere, since he hasn't shown that he's worth that, at least imo. But we do have a history of overpaying certain players so really anythings possible i suppose.

[RyanC883]

more money for a game changing DE/OLB??

 

If Shaq and Phillips are gone, we had better "make a splash" in FA by signing an impact (sacks) DE/OLB and Hooper.  

 

Not making a splash was all well and good when the idea was to keep your own guys, etc., but if Lawson is gone, that's not keeping your own guys, and the anti-splash movement was also predicated upon making more cap space.  We have the space, make a "smart splash"  

[formerlyofCtown]

16 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Think the writing was on the wall when we didn’t pick up his option...even before that actually considering he wasn’t a pick of the current regime 

That really isn't a factor at all.  Players that are sent out the door don't fit the mold of the incoming regime.  Lawson does fit that mold.  He may just want more than they are willing to give at the moment.  There are some really good players that may be available this offseason.

[Bad Things]

Too bad things didn't "get real" during his first two years here.

[Putin]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

more money for a game changing DE/OLB??

 

If Shaq and Phillips are gone, we had better "make a splash" in FA by signing an impact (sacks) DE/OLB and Hooper.  

 

Not making a splash was all well and good when the idea was to keep your own guys, etc., but if Lawson is gone, that's not keeping your own guys, and the anti-splash movement was also predicated upon making more cap space.  We have the space, make a "smart splash"  

Let's not forget that he/Shaq was drafted by the previous regime so I don't think they view him as ( keep your own guys ) 

But I like Shaq a lot and Iwould  love for him to remain a Bill , Phillips on the other hand I could care less let him go get overpaid somewhere else 

GO BILLS !!!

Edited March 3, 2020 by Putin

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Putin said:

Let's not forget that he/Shaq was drafted by the previous regime so I don't think they view him as ( keep your own guys ) 

But I like Shaq a lot and Iwould  love for him to remain a Bill 

GO BILLS !!!

I had the same thought. I didn’t really include him in that “keep your own” group lined up for extensions (White, Dawkins, Milano). He’s a guy, like Jordan Phillips, who I think they would like to keep at the right price but won’t bend over backwards and feel they can replace if needed . 

Edited March 3, 2020 by YoloinOhio