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Hind sight being ridiculously 20/20: should the Bills have picked up the 5th year on Shaq?


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Throwing in a little butterfly effect, though, if he had the 5th year would he be the same Shaq we are getting now?

 

I actually think he showed us a little something last year.

 

Mods, I’m being honest here, I did not check if this was an already existing topic and it might be.  Please feel free to lock this puppy up if it is.

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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I don't think he is worth that much...he has been playing well, but is he really worth top 15 money at his position?? Someone is going to overpay for him...if we can get him back at a reasonable deal I would say go for it, he has earned that, but he has not earned what some team will pay for him to be full time and likely not produce like a full time player.

Edited by matter2003
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amazing how hard players will play when they don't know if they'll have a job next year or at least whether they will be anything more than a backup.  they pushed him and he has responded.  now they need to decide whether he was just playing for a contract or whether this is the real shaq.  McBeanes will make the right choice

Edited by ProcessTruster
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Nope.  No way.  Shaq is a decent player, but he’s not worth close to what his option year would’ve paid him - $9.45M.  That also would’ve set the floor for a new contract.  That average salary per year would rank 21st among DEs.  No thanks.  He is not close to that kind of player.  However he is a player that I’d like to have in my 3 DE rotation, but I’m not happy if he’s one of my starting 2.  I’d be happy to pay him accordingly.  If not, there’s other guys out there to fill that role. 

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10 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

I think they did the right thing, although I think Shaq has been having a very nice year. I think he’s had “motivation” issues in past offseasons, strange how a big payday hanging over the head can light the fire...

That's one of my concerns honestly - if he needed a contract year to motivate him to play well, once he gets paid will he still be motivated.  Obviously the hope would be that he bought into The Process and his approach/mindset has been changed going forward.

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I thought that they should have at the time. With the amount of space that they have I thought it raised the floor for the DL. I wasn’t irate when they didn’t but wanted them to. As I sit here today I feel the same way. I would have preferred it but I’m not going to lose a second of sleep that they didn’t. 

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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6 minutes ago, stevewin said:

That's one of my concerns honestly - if he needed a contract year to motivate him to play well, once he gets paid will he still be motivated.  Obviously the hope would be that he bought into The Process and his approach/mindset has been changed going forward.

I think the motivation concern is fair.  How about try to re-sign on a 2-3 year incentive-laden deal, to keep motivation high?  If he gets a better offer elsewhere so be it, but the motivation is a risk some other team can take on then.

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This is how the system works in the NFL. It’s a balancing act between players and management. The real question is whether we’ll start to see players who want to stay in Buffalo because the team finally appears to be winning! If not....I’m not really sure what The Process and The Culture are all about. 

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22 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I don't think he is worth that much...he has been playing well, but is he really worth top 15 money at his position?? Someone is going to overpay for him...if we can get him back at a reasonable deal I would say go for it, he has earned that, but he has not earned what some team will pay for him to be full time and likely not produce like a full time player.

Who’s been playing better then him on our DL? 

He’s been awesome against the run and very effective / actually creating havoc in the backfield/ rushing the passer 

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Shaq was brought in by Rex and crew as a bad fit for their scheme. He was a good prospect coming out of college as a 4-3 DE who was not a huge pass rusher. Good defender who holds his own in the run game setting the edge. Whaley had some here believing he was going to rack up sacks in Rex's defense. Not his game. Even a novice like me knew that and didn't understand the pic for the scheme we had at the time. Maybe Rex convinced Whaley too. That same year we drafted Ragland and Adolphus Washington. I hate you, Rex. Shaq has progressed with better coaching and a scheme he should have been drafted into from the beginning. I'm not buying the "he needed the motivation of a contract year" talk. He needed better coaching and to be played where he fits. Rex almost wrecked the career of a good young player. Having said this, it was smart not to give him the 5th year. We are working the cap well and I trust Beane. Hopefully Shaq appreciates what this staff has done to help his career along and gives us a serious shot at signing him. Not necessarily a hometown discount, just the opportunity to see if we want to match any offers.

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I think likable players tend to skew our perception of who they are talent wise.    Shaq's 5th year option is akin to the opinion of people who want to pay Jordan Phillips 11 million dollars next year.  Shaq is a rotational defensive end who provides a lot of solid play, but he not picking up his 5th year option probably ends up saving the Bills 4 or so million next year if they choose to resign him.   Always thought Brandon Graham was Shaq's ceiling, but I dont think he is playing to that level yet.  If the Bills want to resign him for 7 or so million next year I'd be all for it, the 5th year option would have cost them more.

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Just now, Paul Costa said:

No. He’s played well. We will have a opportunity to resign him and give him what he deserves. If not we get a comp pick correct?

It depends on the contract he gets and what we bring back in free agency. Yet nobody knows the true formula but the Patriots seem to max out comp picks. 

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37 minutes ago, stevewin said:

That's one of my concerns honestly - if he needed a contract year to motivate him to play well, once he gets paid will he still be motivated.  Obviously the hope would be that he bought into The Process and his approach/mindset has been changed going forward.

See: Marcell Dareus.

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I was in favor of it then and I’m still good with him becoming a FA. 1st Round pick who mostly flirted with BUST, though wasn’t quite bad enough to bench. Now 4 years in and he’s finally Average? With a big mouth?? I’m for letting him walk. I’d prefer a FA WR over a Draft pick, so Round 1 can be Edge/DE. Just my take.

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I’m generally all for trying to keep our draft picks and it seems like a long time that one of the Bills picks saw a 2nd contract..( although that looks likely to change the last couple of classes.)

 

I think when they had to make the call though  he wasn’t playing up to the money..

 

If you could decide now, they probably keep him..

 

He is no super star but I like his attitude and his play this year... he seems a good fit in the rotation .. I wouldn’t  be against them trying to keep him although this doesn’t seem to happen a lot with the spurned 5th year player generally deciding to move on..

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Good teams find under performing talent get them up to performance level and then let other teams over pay for them. 

 

Thats how I feel about both Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips. Guys like them are replacement level, I know both love Buffalo but you can find other guys who will produce like them for a fraction of the price. Now if both Lawson and Phillips dont find the big money in Free Agency then sure you circle back around and make them an offer that you find is fair.

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8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m not sure what this means 

The poster I was replying to said,

 

"That's one of my concerns honestly - if he needed a contract year to motivate him to play well, once he gets paid will he still be motivated.  Obviously the hope would be that he bought into The Process and his approach/mindset has been changed going forward."

 

The point I'm making is this is exactly what Marcell did. There was motivation to get the big contract. After that, ZERO motivation. I'm not saying Shaq and Dareus are equal. I agree with the poster that the hope is that Shaq has bought into the process and this wouldn't be an issue. But if he didn't play great in years 1-3, there's concern that after getting that contract, he could revert back to the way he was in those years. I trust that Beane would make the right decision there.

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Just now, CLTbills said:

The poster I was replying to said,

 

"That's one of my concerns honestly - if he needed a contract year to motivate him to play well, once he gets paid will he still be motivated.  Obviously the hope would be that he bought into The Process and his approach/mindset has been changed going forward."

 

The point I'm making is this is exactly what Marcell did. There was motivation to get the big contract. After that, ZERO motivation. I'm not saying Shaq and Dareus are equal. I agree with the poster that the hope is that Shaq has bought into the process and this wouldn't be an issue. But if he didn't play great in years 1-3, there's concern that after getting that contract, he could revert back to the way he was in those years. I trust that Beane would make the right decision there.

Thanks!

As I mentioned it’ll be interesting to see if the upward trajectory of the franchise has any impact on player negotiations. We’ve all been wondering for years and years if it would. Now, we’re going to see. 

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No. He’s an average, rotational DE. Not worth the 5th year option, IMO. They need to try and find another legitimate pass rusher at the position in the off season. Shaq is good vs the run and provides depth so they should hang onto him or Murphy but not both. If Shaq walks for a big offer then that settles the question of who gets replaced.

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No he had shown no growth for 3 seasons.

 

I recently heard Chris Brown strongly implying that the organization was not impressed with his dedication to football after last season so bear that in mind.

 

The objective was to get the most out of him this year.   If he had the security of another year on his deal why would anyone expect anything different than he had shown in his first 3 seasons? 

 

Salary drives do that.   Mission accomplished.  

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He's was drafted to be a big 3-4 defense edge setter in Rex's defunct defense.  Ragland was drafted to be on 3-4  inside backer thumper-type.   Neither position exists in the 4-3 played now.

 

My guess is he is he'll be offered a fair contract, but will be let go as the 4-3 we play now needs twitching edge rushers.  He is too big/slow to be a 4-3 end in the NFL.   Its all good.  Some 3-4 team will grab him and pay up to have him set their edge in a 3-4.   And likely so will finally end all remaining legacy from the defunct Rex Ryan defense.   Good riddance. 

 

Trust the Process.

Edited by ProcessTruster
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1 hour ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

I think they did the right thing, although I think Shaq has been having a very nice year. I think he’s had “motivation” issues in past offseasons, strange how a big payday hanging over the head can light the fire...

He had a solid year last season and is having a very strong season now. Sometimes players take a few seasons to reach their potential. I do think he'll sign elsewhere, some team will make offer him more than we care to pay, I would think. I can't see Shaq being one of the players Beane gives the massive extension to. But his leaving will leave a massive hole on the line.

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1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Throwing in a little butterfly effect, though, if he had the 5th year would he be the same Shaq we are getting now?

 

I actually think he showed us a little something last year.

 

Mods, I’m being honest here, I did not check if this was an already existing topic and it might be.  Please feel free to lock this puppy up if it is.


a long term deal is gonna be cheaper. His value is likely 8M AVV Max. I think they played it right. 
 

what is interesting is seems picks after 10 overall are seeing less and less 5th year option exercised. Would love to see the real breakdown but it feels that way. 

Edited by MAJBobby
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1 hour ago, Putin said:

Who’s been playing better then him on our DL? 

He’s been awesome against the run and very effective / actually creating havoc in the backfield/ rushing the passer 

 

I'd say he is the beneficiary of the scheme where they have a lot of movement that create free lanes for him to slide through, especially as of late.  I don't see him being as effective in other schemes which routinely require him to beat his man one on one.

Edited by matter2003
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