RD 3, Pick 96: TE Dawson Knox, Ole Miss

[vincec]

7 hours ago, daz28 said:

He walks in with an opportunity to start.  

That's not saying much.

[Pbomb]

4 hours ago, #34fan said:

For a D-1 TE, 0 TD's in three seasons of football is laughable... And please, please, stop saying he's a good blocker. -He is not.  NFL LB's are going to level this kid.

 

Another lousy pick from a clueless regime...

 

Another lousy post from a clueless poster

[Mat68]

His fluidity in and out of his breaks are rare for a guy his size.  The Athlete is worth a 3rd rd pick.  His lack of production is incredibly concerning for me.  He appears to be a scouting community darling.  At this point it's a complete projection to assume he will be a reliable receiving threat at TE.

[eball]

8 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I hate all the trading up.

 

I don't like broccoli.

[RobbRiddick]

I'm one of those crazy people who reserves judgement until I've seen a guy play in the NFL.

 

You can definitely see his athleticism though on film. Looks to have good hands, good size.

 

Foster didn't do much in college but they obviously saw from the tape that he had the right abilities to do more with more of a role and more targets. 

 

I did laugh when the guys on NFL Network said he had zero TDs in college because I knew a lot of people here would lose their ***** over that. We have Kroft so he can ease into things gradually and increase his time on the field. 

[SoCal Deek]

Round 3 is a head scratcher for me. Not an immediate fan of either pick. But looking at the first two rounds we stayed in the trenches so there’s that.

[Rufridr101]

This pick has potential of being a homerun. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Rufridr101 said:

This pick has potential of being a homerun. 

Every pick has that ‘potential’ but looking at his college stats there’s certainly no reason to think so.

[WideRightRevenge]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

The more I read this AM including above .. the more I am warming up to this pick ... also pulled Kittle's college stats .. granted 10 TDs .. but limited catches like Kittle ... and same size ... so one can hope

 

						Receiving				Rushing				Scrimmage
Year ▲	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Career	Iowa					48	737	15.4	10	0	0		0	48	737	15.4	10
*2013	Iowa	Big Ten	FR	UT	3	5	108	21.6	0	0	0		0	5	108	21.6	0
*2014	Iowa	Big Ten	SO	TE	3	1	25	25.0	0	0	0		0	1	25	25.0	0
*2015	Iowa	Big Ten	JR	TE	10	20	290	14.5	6	0	0		0	20	290	14.5	6
*2016	Iowa	Big Ten	SR	TE	9	22	314	14.3	4	0	0		0	22	314	14.3	4

[akm0404]

Draft a player with elite measurable but low productivity? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft a player with elite productivity and low measurables? Regime is clueless. 

 

Trade up and forfeit draft picks? Regime is clueless. 

 

Stay put and fall asleep during the draft? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft a player at a position of need instead of following your board? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft highest rated player available instead of filling a position of need? Regime is clueless.

 

Lots of silly geese around here imo. 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by akm0404

[biggerdaddynj]

We all wanted a TE and another WR for Josh Allen (in fact after the first two picks some people were upset we hadn’t give him any weapons yet—i.e., DK who obviously plummeted for a reason with many WRs we assumed would go much later than him leapfrogging and by a lot).  

 

When I saw the Dawson (“Fort”) Knox pick I was initially bummed because I was hoping they’d have moved up for Warring but assuming they wanted to do that the cost most have been too steep (and probably a lot more so with Sternberger) and they clearly must have Knox close on their board or perhaps ahead.

 

Not knowing much much about Dawson, I decided to check on the other TEs who were still available and who I thought we may have been able wait to the fourth without trading up:  Caleb Smith, Foster Moreau, Isaac Nauta.  When I checked their draft scouting reports (because I don’t profess to be any sort of expert in player personnel) I found that each one of the TEs left after Knox had at least one pretty big deficiency with their game.   Then when I went back and checked “Fort Knox”—I noticed his was clearly the cleanest scouting report (sure, somewhat raw and underused but he has a more complete skill set and certainly a higher ceiling than those who would have been there if we waited until four). 

 

 Though I’m NOT saying any of these reports are the do all, end all, the legit ones do have more insight than many of us do and it’s something that helped me to put the pick in perspective.  

 

Seems like after Fort Knox the drop off at TE was real. And, BTW, FWIW, CBS graded the Knox pick as an “A” and Sternberger was graded a “B” and his scouting report wasn’t as well-rounded as Knox (Singletary was a B+).  And Drafttek has Knox a mere four OVERALL spots below Sternberger and he's ranked as the next TE after him. 

 

I’m one who until this offseason lacked faith in the Process but I’m slowly changing my mind.

 

BTW—does anyone know why Kelvin Harmon has dropped so far—pre-draft I would have liked him in the 3rd.  

 

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by biggerdaddynj

[hemma]

This is a great pick.

He is going to dust 9 of 10 LBs and pound people when needed.

His 1st run at his Pro day was 4.57 .... and his 2nd was 4.51.  Could be a great weapon.

 

Really good to have dual purpose TEs that don't show your hand.

[Mark92]

Good lord! Can we take a breath for a minute here.  This draft is not a disaster like many people here are trying to say.  Ed Oliver is the one player pretty much all of us wanted and they got him without trading up.  Cody Ford who was a top 25 prospect in almost all mock drafts fell to them at 38.  Those two picks right there pretty much stamp this draft as an overwhelming success.  Yes a WR would have been nice but TE, CB, DE, LB and RB were also needs.  The bills didn't NEED to draft any position out side of DL which let Beane stick to the board unless a value talent was dropping.  

Edited April 27, 2019 by Mark92

[RobbRiddick]

Don't know if this has been posted. Decent little bit of pre-draft analysis from *spit* Cowboys.com

 

 

[AmishRifle]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Biggest thing for me is that the Bills did a ton of work on Knox predraft and our OC was a longtime TE coach. They see enough in this player that they didn’t want him to go anywhere else. I’m assuming Daboll has a big part of his evaluation. He did ok with another player from a loaded college offense with suspect QB play who didn’t get the ball, Robert Foster.  I’m excited about him. 

You always make me feel better Yolo!  Thank you!

[racketmaster]

It’s probably a little unfair to compare Knox to Kittle  seeing how Kittle really exploded this year for San Francisco but there are some similar athletic traits. And TEs like Knox are examples of why you wait until after round 1 to draft them. It is a very unique position (lineman and wr combination) and often guys come out of nowhere in college to become productive NFL players. Knox was generally talked about as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect so to get him at the end of the 3rd was a good value. Based on the history of the position and the fact he was underused at Ole Miss, I would not be surprised in the least if Knox put up similar production to Hockenson in their NFL careers. It is just how this position seems to work. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Biggest thing for me is that the Bills did a ton of work on Knox predraft and our OC was a longtime TE coach. They see enough in this player that they didn’t want him to go anywhere else. I’m assuming Daboll has a big part of his evaluation. He did ok with another player from a loaded college offense with suspect QB play who didn’t get the ball, Robert Foster.  I’m excited about him. 

 

...great points Yolo....and I think your assumption is dead on......cannot force feed players to your OC (or DC) with the edict to "make it work".....exactly what the egotistical DonoHOLE did with Air Horn Greggy........worked wonders, right?...........

[Luka]

Can't argue with a guy that's nearly 6' 5" 250 and runs a 4.5 40 yard dash. Under utilized at Ole Miss which isn't surprising consider Brown and Metcalf and having a subpar QB that wasn't able to read the field. While the laymen here only have his numbers and his couple of highlights from Youtube, I'm willing to bet the all 22 would should a guy who's open more often than not and his athleticism makes him a serious threat after the catch.

[Hebert19]

I dont care what his stat line is as all I see is As or A- for him from people who actually watch the games.  Seems like a good fit at a position of need.  Giddyup

31 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

Draft a player with elite measurable but low productivity? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft a player with elite productivity and low measurables? Regime is clueless. 

 

Trade up and forfeit draft picks? Regime is clueless. 

 

Stay put and fall asleep during the draft? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft a player at a position of need instead of following your board? Regime is clueless. 

 

Draft highest rated player available instead of filling a position of need? Regime is clueless.

 

Lots of silly geese around here imo. 

 

 

Seems you have anger issues.   The scouts and talking heads love the pick so I guess we will see who is right. 

[Magox]

12 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

 

Seems you have anger issues.   The scouts and talking heads love the pick so I guess we will see who is right. 

 

He was being facetious 

[akm0404]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

He was being facetious 

 

 

Always good to bring your sarcasm meter into the shop every couple years for a tune-up. 

[wppete]

Dawson Knox ran a 4.51 40 yard!!!!!! This guy is going to be a steal, some people had him going in the first round in mocks. Love this pick!!!!

 

 

[JimmyNoodles]

He was under utilized which is how you get 1st round talent in a 3rd round pick. This pick is big for Allen, providing another receiving layer. Think Newton- Olson for our Carolina connection. Really like this pick.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

He’s an athletic freak and has already shown to be a good blocker. Wanted sternberger but much rather have him than someone like Drew Sample. 

[Hebert19]

4 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

 

 

Always good to bring your sarcasm meter into the shop every couple years for a tune-up. 

Ha.  My bad.  Missed the context of it.  

[KellyToTasker]

8 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

He asked me to name a 7th rounder with better production than Dawson Knox. I picked the best one haha.

 

He put up monster numbers. You're damned sure I'd be happy if we drafted that production. I'm just playing the odds.

Shannon Sharpe played college at Savannah State. Teams draft on the projection of what a player is capable of accomplishing. Sharpe's college performance was against lower level competition, but he projected well enough to get drafted (in the 7th round). Rarely does a 7th round TE draft pick work in a team's favor. Sharpe is the extreme exception. You can't base expectations on rare instances. The draft is not an exact science, that said.....The Bills FO felt the need to grab a guy at a position that fits what they want to do on offense. They see value in Knox. Of course, we all hope it works out!

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Given this regime’s already noted ability to turn over rocks and find legit contributors where others have passed (R. Foster maybe most glaring example), I’m still trusting the process and giving them benefit of the doubt; and it does look like this kid has solid tools—I’m really surprised by his 40 speed as such a big dude—love that!!

[JM57]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Biggest thing for me is that the Bills did a ton of work on Knox predraft and our OC was a longtime TE coach. They see enough in this player that they didn’t want him to go anywhere else. I’m assuming Daboll has a big part of his evaluation. He did ok with another player from a loaded college offense with suspect QB play who didn’t get the ball, Robert Foster.  I’m excited about him. 

Maybe I'm just tired of being negative about this team after watching them be bad and dumb for my entire life (or at least the 20ish years I've watched and understood the game) but I'm gonna try to give them the benefit of the doubt for once. 

 

The lack of production is concerning of course but the athletic traits are there. They weren't going to use all 10 picks so the trade up is whatever. And as Yolo said they did a ton of homework on him so they must really like something about him. If he flames out, no big deal, try again. 

[Bob in STL]

9 hours ago, MacGyver said:

They did it twice this draft, throwing away picks to move up when they didn't need to. 

 

Why do the Bills seem to always hire GM's that throw away draft picks? 

Look deeper, like the real MacGyver would. 

 

Scouting means look for talent and potential.  Anybody can pick players by stats. Not all college stats translate to the pro level.  

 

Knox has size, speed, talent, and was not utilized playing in a program that had problems.   I’m betting that the Bills graded him as 2 or 3 at TE.  If they wait until the fourth round he ends on the Pats*.  They would not trade two 4’s unless he was in their top 2 or 3.  

 

As for throwing away picks consider this.  The Bills signed 18 free agents, many to short contracts.  No way they are going to draft 10 players plus acquire the usual cache of URFA’s.  They will still end up drafting 8 players and can only bring so many players to camp.  This training camp will have intense competition at OL, WR, TE, RB, CB, DL, and special teams.   Linebacker depth is my only concern right now. 

 

Speaking of URFA’s, last year we had Foster (WR) and Wallace (CB) break out.  Talent can be found and developed after the first three rounds.  

 

Keep the faith.  This is not the Buddy Nix, Tom Modrak, and Doug Whaley show. 

 

 

 

 

 

The first 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Bob in STL

[Nanker]

32 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

I dont care what his stat line is as all I see is As or A- for him from people who actually watch the games.  Seems like a good fit at a position of need.  Giddyup

Seems you have anger issues.   The scouts and talking heads love the pick so I guess we will see who is right. 

Did you read his last sentence?

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

7 hours ago, SDS said:

 

You apparently don’t understand the term “giving away”. 

You've been like a ninja over the past few days...you step out of the shadows, dispatch with efficiency and are gone again.  ?

[C.Biscuit97]

Again, I want to state I loved the Oliver pick and liked the Ford one.  But man, trading up for this guy?  Come on with the excuses.  You shouldn’t have to make excuses for a 3rd round TE you trade up for.  If he was so talented, why didn’t they try to get him the ball more?  Especially After the DK injury?  Also, with those 2 receivers, he had a lot of room to operate.  

 

There will be some TE with good measurables that you could get at the end of the draft.  You could sign a basketball player and convert him.  But we just got another whatever TE. I hope I’m wrong but if Butler goes before we pick again, I will again question this group’s ability to scout receivers.  Safe to say, it’s been questionable at best.

13 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Given this regime’s already noted ability to turn over rocks and find legit contributors where others have passed (R. Foster maybe most glaring example), I’m still trusting the process and giving them benefit of the doubt; and it does look like this kid has solid tools—I’m really surprised by his 40 speed as such a big dude—love that!!

1) Foster was at Alabama, not Bryant & Stattron

 

2) they cut Foster 

[ddaryl]

Overall a good TE to roll the dice on. This guy was just not utilized in Ole Miss Offense much. Hear it said he will be a better pro then prospect...  How fast he can adapt to a pro offense will be key. An investment in time at TE, special teamer.

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, RobbRiddick said:

Don't know if this has been posted. Decent little bit of pre-draft analysis from *spit* Cowboys.com

 

 

Good stuff. I would like to see a catch percentage per throw. Did they not use him alot YET he caught them all?

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

 

Anyone who thinks that GM's think ANY differently about the board than draftnik fans only needs to read this quote.

 

As a fan it felt NECESSARY that they draft a TE in this draft because the depth was so unusual..........there were guys that go a round+ earlier in an average draft and maybe even round 1 in a BAD TE draft.    

 

The problem IMO is that it's not congruent with the thinking that lead to the Singletary pick............they treated that as a need and ignored the positional value and perhaps the perspective was thrown by the lack of quality in this RB class.    Singletary was my RB1 IMO and I think he'll be a nice RB but it's a BAD draft for RB's.     

 

 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Mark92 said:

Good lord! Can we take a breath for a minute here.  This draft is not a disaster like many people here are trying to say.  Ed Oliver is the one player pretty much all of us wanted and they got him without trading up.  Cody Ford who was a top 25 prospect in almost all mock drafts fell to them at 38.  Those two picks right there pretty much stamp this draft as an overwhelming success.  Yes a WR would have been nice but TE, CB, DE, LB and RB were also needs.  The bills didn't NEED to draft any position out side of DL which let Beane stick to the board unless a value talent was dropping.  

 

Oliver and Ford are homerun picks, IMO.  

 

Where they open themselves up to scrutiny is in the 3rd Round.   They draft a RB, who lacks measurables, and give up both 4ths for a TE who is solely measurables.  

 

I think it’s fair to question those picks, especially given the uncertainty of our WR unit.  

 

Replace Singletary with a WR, and I don’t think anyone bats an eyelash at Knox and his insane potential.  .....but the Singletary pick, even with his LeSean McCoy comps, has a lot of people with a bad 3rd Round taste in their mouth.  That bad taste, I think carried over to Knox, because in a vacuum, I’m starting to love the Knox pick.  

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by SCBills

[Doc]

17 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again, I want to state I loved the Oliver pick and liked the Ford one.  But man, trading up for this guy?  Come on with the excuses.  You shouldn’t have to make excuses for a 3rd round TE you trade up for.  If he was so talented, why didn’t they try to get him the ball more?  Especially After the DK injury?  Also, with those 2 receivers, he had a lot of room to operate.  

 

There will be some TE with good measurables that you could get at the end of the draft.  You could sign a basketball player and convert him.  But we just got another whatever TE. I hope I’m wrong but if Butler goes before we pick again, I will again question this group’s ability to scout receivers.  Safe to say, it’s been questionable at best.

1) Foster was at Alabama, not Bryant & Stattron

 

2) they cut Foster 

 

I didn't watch Ole Miss but if they hadn't been stacked at WR with Brown, Metcalf (who played in 7 of their 12 games so it's not like he missed all or even most of the season) and Lodge, I'd agree that Knox looks like a dumb move.  Outside of that, Ta'amu isn't that great and it could be a matter of him preferring to throw to WR's than TE's.  The kid however has what you look for in terms of size and athleticism and he's a good blocker, which has value.

 

And cutting Foster was the reason he did what he did in the 2nd half.  He obviously impressed no one with his first few games, judging by the fact that he was free for anyone to sign.

 

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Anyone who thinks that GM's think ANY differently about the board than draftnik fans only needs to read this quote.

 

As a fan it felt NECESSARY that they draft a TE in this draft because the depth was so unusual..........there were guys that go a round+ earlier in an average draft and maybe even round 1 in a BAD TE draft.    

 

The problem IMO is that it's not congruent with the thinking that lead to the Singletary pick............they treated that as a need and ignored the positional value and perhaps the perspective was thrown by the lack of quality in this RB class.    Singletary was my RB1 IMO and I think he'll be a nice RB but it's a BAD draft for RB's.    

 

So you think Singletary was the best RB in the draft?  At the top of the 3rd, that would be a good value, no?  It's not like they have a lot of young stud RB's. 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Doc

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I didn't watch Ole Miss but if they hadn't been stacked at WR with Brown, Metcalf (who played in 7 of their 12 games so it's not like he missed all or even most of the season) and Lodge, I'd agree that Knox looks like a dumb move.  Outside of that, Ta'amu isn't that great and it could be a matter of him preferring to throw to WR's than TE's.  The kid however has what you look for in terms of size and athleticism and he's a good blocker, which has value.

 

And cutting Foster was the reason he did what he did in the 2nd half.  He obviously impressed no one with his first few games, judging by the fact that he was free for anyone to sign.

 

 

So you think Singletary was the best RB in the draft?  At the top of the 3rd, that would be a good value, no?  It's not like they have a lot of young stud RB's. 

Fair points Doc and I hope you’re right.  But 0 tds our of a 3rd round TE? After DK gets hurt?  I really wanted a TE but I would have waited until later because there would be a good with good measurables available later.  

 

https://walterfootball.com/draft2019TE.php

[twist_to_open]

30 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again, I want to state I loved the Oliver pick and liked the Ford one.  But man, trading up for this guy?  Come on with the excuses.  You shouldn’t have to make excuses for a 3rd round TE you trade up for.  If he was so talented, why didn’t they try to get him the ball more?  Especially After the DK injury?  Also, with those 2 receivers, he had a lot of room to operate.  

 

There will be some TE with good measurables that you could get at the end of the draft.  You could sign a basketball player and convert him.  But we just got another whatever TE. I hope I’m wrong but if Butler goes before we pick again, I will again question this group’s ability to scout receivers.  Safe to say, it’s been questionable at best.

1) Foster was at Alabama, not Bryant & Stattron

 

2) they cut Foster 

I know I'm gonna get flamed for this, but, if Tom Brady was so talented why didn't Michigan play him more instead of going with Henson? There are players that show talent and potential that may not have been on full display for four years but observate scouts see attributes that can be used to make their team better.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

So you think Singletary was the best RB in the draft?  At the top of the 3rd, that would be a good value, no?  It's not like they have a lot of young stud RB's. 

 

RB1 in a crowded group of "meh's"............I could easily see Singletary going 5th or even 6th round in a good RB draft.    

 

The draft isn't to be treated as a "one off" event IMO but an ongoing process of team building............reaching for need at a position of lesser value like RB catches up to you in subsequent years.