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Who's your "plate of crow" in the draft?


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Who in the draft have you developed strong feelings on, that you'll belly up for a "plate of crow" if you're wrong?

 

I have really only been looking at QB so that's mine, but can be any position and any draft round

 

My dinner plate of crow will be Allen.  I think he's a developmental guy, it flips me out that everyone is all over him as a #1 pick.  I see him taking 2-3 years to develop, if he does.  If he starts for someone next year and lights the place up, I will call GrubHub and order one large Crow Plate with a side of Humble Pie.

 

My dessert plate of crow will be Jackson.  I think he needs some development and should sit at least a year, but I think he could be amazing.  If he bombs out or is injured and never comes back, I'll be looking for Crow Pie.

 

 

 

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Any QB drafted outside of the top 15. I don't think any of them have a shot at being a franchise QB except for the top guys. Do whatever it takes to get one. I thought that's why we collected all of those draft picks??

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If either Jackson or Allen do well, I will eat crow. If Rosen and Mayfield aren't top ~8 QBs for a long time, I'll also eat crow. That is the only position I care about enough to really have opinions about these guys, other than to really root for Barkley and Griffin. 

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Lamar Jackson will never pass for 4,000 yards in the NFL, but will have moderate success as a mid range starter for 3-4 seasons. Won't bust, better player than Tyrod, but won't live up to his 1st round status.

 

Josh Rosen will have a moderately successful career, but riddled by injuries and character concerns, will become a journeyman QB that bounces around the league for 7-8 years.

 

Sam Darnold makes multiple Pro Bowls, has success as a playoff QB, maybe a top 7-12 guy, but is never good enough to win a Super Bowl, he will have a career just like Tony Romo's.

 

Josh Allen is an enigma to me. I think he can be the best QB in the draft bar none, but if he is drafted by the Browns or Jets I think he will be a draft bust. If he goes to the Giants or Broncos, he will become a top 3 QB in the NFL, needs to be handled correctly, Broncos would be great for him.

 

Baker Mayfield, I think he has a better chance of having a solid NFL career than he does as a draft bust. Certain things bother me about him, but just like Josh Allen he has a certain attitude and Moxy about him that I like, reminds me of Kelly.

 

Mason Rudolph, the forgotten man of the group, slips through the cracks and turns into a multiple 4,000 yard passer. Never turns into an elite player, but is a good starter that has a successful career, reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers, Rudolph is my dark horse in the draft.

 

Kyle Lauletta. Has a successful career as a very high level backup, maybe even good enough to start on some teams, never becomes a good QB, but a traveling journeyman in the NFL.

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So I would eat crow on Allen.  I think he is unlikely to be a successful NFL Quarterback.  

 

I would also eat crow on Joshua Jackson the corner out of Iowa.  Not if he proves he can play... because he can play..... but if he turns into a stud.  I just do not see any "elite" skills there.  I think he is a #2 corner level player.  If he becomes a top 10/15 NFL corner I will be crow eating.  

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I will go the other way. I don’t think Baker Mayfield will live up to anywhere near his hype. He’ll be a back up/sign with a new tram post rookie contract. 

 

My hot take, and I’ll eat crow if I am wrong. 

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4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

My crow will be if Lamar Jackson if he does not have a productive NFL career IF he goes to a team that puts him in a position to succeed.  He needs to go to a team that will utilize his talents.

I'm in the same boat with Jackson. I think all the tools are absolutely there. The growth he showed as a passer year to year at Louisville was impressive, especially with a subpar supporting cast. I think he may need half of a year to a year to sit and learn. He will need a QB coach that can teach him consistency in his mechanics, but if he can get that I think success is not far away for him.

 

I'd be thrilled to see him on the Bills. Either if he somehow fell to 21 or if they had to maybe move up to the 10-13 range to jump Arizona. In a slight move up I think they could probably keep the #22 and maybe even one of their 2nds and still get their guy.

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I've been borderline bullish on this subject, so all I'm really doing is making it single place to come back to: Mason Rudolph. I think he can be a true franchise QB in the right system. For example, if he were to go to the Pats* I have no doubt by the time he starts two years in the NFL, he will be seen as a top 10 QB. Now, if he went somewhere like the Dolphins or Browns, no - I don't see him being that type of QB to turn a franchise around. But for someone like the Vikings, Broncos, and yes even the Bills (presuming they don't trade up and build a team around him), he can be a top 10 QB. 

 

If I'm wrong, I'll be fully content to come back and chew on that crow. Not because I think I'm infallible or that I can't make mistakes, because I RARELY go out on a limb this far. But, after watching so much of his video, listening to his interview, listening to both his detractors and those who champion his ability, I believe in the right system and with additional strengthening development (as all college players get once in the NFL), he's a franchise guy through-and-through. 

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I'll eat crow on Jackson with a side of crow on Allen. 

 

The probability of 5 franchise-level QBs in a single draft are miniscule. Very interesting to watch this unfold. Teams will overdraft QBs as they always do but this year with so many supposedly in the market, it's going to happen. The most interesting will be to see how the consensus top 5 go in order and how closely that order is to their actual careers. 

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The main guys I'd eat crow on if they turn out to be bad are Lamar Jackson, Vita Vea, Roquan Smith, and Quentin Nelson. Ronald Jones would probably be the 5th but you never really know with running backs.

 

The main guy I'd eat crow on if he turns out to be good is Mason Rudolph. I think he could potentially become a below average starter but I just don't see upside in him at all.

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Baker & Rudolph

 

I don't think Rudolph is anywhere near a 1st round prospect, he played in a gimmick offense in a conference notorious for poor defensive play with NFL level skill talent.

 

Baker, I believe he needs to be in the perfect situation. I think he needs an innovative offensive coordinator / coach and be protected from the media a bit.  I worry about him landing in Cleveland, where the Manziel comparisons will happen daily and he's shown he's got rabbit ears when it comes to the media / fans.  Texas Tech was a long time ago, but when he was told he would need to compete for the job he packed his bags and went to Oklahoma, I think the brashness hides a fair amount of false bravado.  He wilted down the stretch against Georgia and 95% of the time in college had a decisive talent advantage around him.  Being an overly emotional guy, I worry if he gets drafted by a bad team in the wrong market (Cleveland, New York, etc), the interceptions and losses mount and his emotions spiral.

 

 

On the flip side, I'm all in on Rosen.  I think some of the criticisms (basically he's too smart) are utter nonsense.

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Who in the draft have you developed strong feelings on, that you'll belly up for a "plate of crow" if you're wrong?

 

I have really only been looking at QB so that's mine, but can be any position and any draft round

 

My dinner plate of crow will be Allen.  I think he's a developmental guy, it flips me out that everyone is all over him as a #1 pick.  I see him taking 2-3 years to develop, if he does.  If he starts for someone next year and lights the place up, I will call GrubHub and order one large Crow Plate with a side of Humble Pie.

 

My dessert plate of crow will be Jackson.  I think he needs some development and should sit at least a year, but I think he could be amazing.  If he bombs out or is injured and never comes back, I'll be looking for Crow Pie.

 

 

 

 

Mine is Rosen. 

 

If he isnt great like I think he will be I will get my crow and make me relook at how I evaluate QBs. I have wanted this guy in a Bills uniform since October. 

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I think in five years, we'll see that Allen is the best QB in this draft; and Jackson is the worst.  At that time, I also think that Allen and Rosen will be the only starters out of the entire class.

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I think Rosen is a possible future HOF type quarterback. He is the answer...if he stays healthy.

 

I think Mason Rudolph is a 3rd-4th rounder who will stick around the league as an ok backup for a few years. Floor is Bryce Petty, ceiling is Brandon Weeden. 

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8 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Mason Rudolph will have the most successful NFL career of all QBs in the 2018 draft class.

i would take him at 21 and not look back. he could be like flacco/manning combo. i'll take it.  

i would also take a second qb later.

 

as to eating crow...nathan will be our starter until rookie is inserted. if not....fix me a plate.

Edited by billsredneck1
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Josh Allen is a howitzer with a cheaply made Eastern European fire control system installed.  Sure, he can throw a football for a mile but there's a less than 60% chance it's going to land where you want it to.  

 

After 3 plus years, Stephenson will be an elite pass rusher and Chubb will be a good one.  

 

 

 

 

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I like Luke Falk, I know he was benched and plays in a spread offense but his accuracy, anticipation and field vision are very good. His film study is also on the level of Peyton Manning, he's in the film room all the time. He needs to work on his foot work and playing under center but I think he is a guy you can mold into a good QB.

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9 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Any QB drafted outside of the top 15. I don't think any of them have a shot at being a franchise QB except for the top guys. Do whatever it takes to get one. I thought that's why we collected all of those draft picks??

 

Just a note that historically in analysis of several drafts, it's not what actually happens that one of the top 3-4 guys turn out to have the best shot.

Usually the top pick or 2 picks have the best shot at success, then the next successful QB turns out to have been selected several shots back (eg 4, 6, or 7th in the draft)

 

It hasn't happened in the 20 years I've analyzed that the top QB in a draft turned out to have been drafted in that order.  The closest would be 2004, where the guys drafted 1,2,3 are all very good QB (arguably in the order 3,2,1), the next best was the 5th QB drafted.

 

 

10 hours ago, NickelCity said:

I will be thrilled with Rosen or Mayfield, I don't know what to think about Darnold (or Jackson for that matter), and I'm on the record as uninspired by Rudolph. Whichever QB we get I hope like hell succeeds. Dammit we're due. 

 

OK, so crow for Nickelcity if Rosen and Mayfield don't succeed, or if Rudolph is great.

9 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Mason Rudolph will have the most successful NFL career of all QBs in the 2018 draft class.

 

I like your style

24 minutes ago, H2o said:

If Lamar Jackson is still in the league after his rookie contract as a QB I will have the crow population on the endangered list. 

 

So noted

29 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I like Luke Falk, I know he was benched and plays in a spread offense but his accuracy, anticipation and field vision are very good. His film study is also on the level of Peyton Manning, he's in the film room all the time. He needs to work on his foot work and playing under center but I think he is a guy you can mold into a good QB.

 

Luke Falk not successful, one helping of Crow Pie for Ktulu

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I've watched a good amount of UCLA games with Rosen and all I see is a young Eli Manning.  So, I'm all in on Rosen.

 

Rosen isn't franchise wherever he lands, one Crow Plate on order for the Doc

4 hours ago, Mango said:

I will go the other way. I don’t think Baker Mayfield will live up to anywhere near his hype. He’ll be a back up/sign with a new tram post rookie contract. 

My hot take, and I’ll eat crow if I am wrong. 

 

Fair enough!

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I have been pretty adamant about picking rosen. so I suppose that if he isn't the pick, serve it up. I like mine grilled then refrigerated, nothing like a cold serving of crow.

 

edit: misunderstood the OP. I believe rosen is a day one starter but if not I still feel he has success at the next level. if not, serve it up as stated above.

 

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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If Rosen doesn't turn out I'll eat a bucket of Crow. I think he is the only sure fire QB in this draft and may be the only one worth a dang in the long run. The big Asterisk is if he can stay healthy. I like that he is intelligent and has matured all the critics are jumping on his behavior two years ago. He's grown past that. He has had team mates vouch for him that he's a great guy and coaches say he's like a sponge. Has great accuracy and ran a pro style offense. I want him in Buffalo!

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11 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Mason Rudolph will have the most successful NFL career of all QBs in the 2018 draft class.

 

One can only hope so - oh and hope the Bills pulled the trigger to get him.....

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I happen to believe that Baker Mayfield will be far and away the best quarterback in this draft. I believe he has Hall of Fame potential.

So if that turns out NOT to be the case, if he is a total bust or gets into off field trouble or turns out to be Just A Guy, I'll eat a crow burger with crow aioli.

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My plate is based on my belief that in 3 years Josh Rosen will be an afterthought to Baker Mayfield who has risen as the clear best QB from this class. Darnold will be decent to average. Rosen may have a Bortles like career where he feels like he's on the cusp, but never get's there. 

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11 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Lamar Jackson will never pass for 4,000 yards in the NFL, but will have moderate success as a mid range starter for 3-4 seasons. Won't bust, better player than Tyrod, but won't live up to his 1st round status.

 

Josh Rosen will have a moderately successful career, but riddled by injuries and character concerns, will become a journeyman QB that bounces around the league for 7-8 years.

 

Sam Darnold makes multiple Pro Bowls, has success as a playoff QB, maybe a top 7-12 guy, but is never good enough to win a Super Bowl, he will have a career just like Tony Romo's.

 

Josh Allen is an enigma to me. I think he can be the best QB in the draft bar none, but if he is drafted by the Browns or Jets I think he will be a draft bust. If he goes to the Giants or Broncos, he will become a top 3 QB in the NFL, needs to be handled correctly, Broncos would be great for him.

 

Baker Mayfield, I think he has a better chance of having a solid NFL career than he does as a draft bust. Certain things bother me about him, but just like Josh Allen he has a certain attitude and Moxy about him that I like, reminds me of Kelly.

 

Mason Rudolph, the forgotten man of the group, slips through the cracks and turns into a multiple 4,000 yard passer. Never turns into an elite player, but is a good starter that has a successful career, reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers, Rudolph is my dark horse in the draft.

 

Kyle Lauletta. Has a successful career as a very high level backup, maybe even good enough to start on some teams, never becomes a good QB, but a traveling journeyman in the NFL.

Very solid post. I MIGHT not agree with everything BUT your thought process and indepth breakdown demands plenty of respect.

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