Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Beast]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

No, you did no but I said not solely directed at you, as well.

 

A lot of people are thinking Elam is going to be part of the factor Sunday. I don't see how or why.

Well, he brings a physical presence and speed. You have to believe the Bills may want to jam receivers at times in an attempt to give the defensive line an extra half second to get in Tua’s face and get their arms up.

 

Seems to me that this particular matchup is where Elam’s skills could be a factor.

 

 

[stlbills13]

3 is a good line. I think the sharps will let the public get it down to -1 or -2 and then hammer the Bills back up to -3 or even-3.5 by kickoff. 

 

The Dolphins are legit. And their speed worries me. But keep them in front of you and get it done defensively in the red zone. Their defense has some big names but they don't scare me

[DapperCam]

42 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

“Only throws floaters”

 

competed 16 straight passes to start the game.

 

if Josh wants to only throw floaters and put up those numbers I’m game. 

Obviously I meant in intermediate/deep passes to the outside which was my initial point. But please, intentionally misinterpret my comment.

[boyst]

18 minutes ago, Beast said:

Well, he brings a physical presence and speed. You have to believe the Bills may want to jam receivers at times in an attempt to give the defensive line an extra half second to get in Tua’s face and get their arms up.

 

Seems to me that this particular matchup is where Elam’s skills could be a factor.

 

 

I agree he has those. I agree it is what is needed. But I am not sure he can contribute with limited experience. 

[Drew21PA]

Yeah as we should be

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, Beast said:

Well, he brings a physical presence and speed. You have to believe the Bills may want to jam receivers at times in an attempt to give the defensive line an extra half second to get in Tua’s face and get their arms up.

 

Seems to me that this particular matchup is where Elam’s skills could be a factor.

 

 

I feel the same. Elam has the skills and speed no other corner on our roster has. He should be our best bet for Miamis speed but I feel like he gonna be scratched anyways. 

[CountDorkula]

8 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Obviously I meant in intermediate/deep passes to the outside which was my initial point. But please, intentionally misinterpret my comment.

No matter how you spin it it’s wrong. 
 

Tua leads the league in two categories. 
shortest time of release

Furthest depth of target. 
 

it’s almost unfathomable to lead both of those. 
 

they put hill and waddle in motion and have them running nearly top speed at the snap which the bills will have to deal with it because it’s impossible to stop when you are flat footed because they will both run by you. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by CountDorkula

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

I can easily see this game going either way both as a close game and a serious blowout by either team. The Fish are legit offense wise, and they are going to get their points. Our Defense is also legit. Our offense can put up some serious points if Josh's head is in the game and the Fins defense is not as near close as Washingtons and the Jets. Hope they show it here in NJ!!

[Jerome007]

Last year, even  if the Fish won in the "heat game" in Miami while enjoying their sideline shade, Bills dominated and the loss felt more like a fluke. And the Bills won the rematch. Sure, this time the Fins are for real, but let's not pretend the Bills - and Josh! - haven't had their number so far!

No matter how you slice it, 70 points and over 700 yards of offense is impressive. But different week, different results. Did people on here forget the Bills just did two blowouts in a row of their own? GO BILLS

[Nineforty]

[Bangarang]

Going to be a big test for our defense. Our offense may have to match points in a shootout.

[CodeMonkey]

35 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

No matter how you spin it it’s wrong. 
 

Tua leads the league in two categories. 
shortest time of release

Furthest depth of target. 
 

it’s almost unfathomable to lead both of those. 
 

they put hill and waddle in motion and have them running nearly top speed at the snap which the bills will have to deal with it because it’s impossible to stop when you are flat footed because they will both run by you. 

 

The good news is, if we can see that, then the coaching staff has been aware for some time.  We'll see in a week what that came up with to deal with it. 

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, RiotAct said:

yup.  “Only” lost by 17 but it really wasn’t that close even.

 

The original question was "when has a McDermott defense been blown out?" (rare) not "when have the Bills been solidly defeated in a game they were never in, even if the score wasn't a blow out ?" (still rare, but has happened more often)

 

46 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

No matter how you spin it it’s wrong. 
 

Tua leads the league in two categories. 
shortest time of release

Furthest depth of target. 
 

it’s almost unfathomable to lead both of those. 
 

they put hill and waddle in motion and have them running nearly top speed at the snap which the bills will have to deal with it because it’s impossible to stop when you are flat footed because they will both run by you. 

 

The good news is they can not put both Hill and Waddle in motion and have them both running nearly top speed at the snap because that would be illegal.

 

Either or, not Both.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Going to be a big test for our defense. Our offense may have to match points in a shootout.

Simply put, McDermott vs McDaniels!! 

[PaattMaann]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

No, you did no but I said not solely directed at you, as well.

 

A lot of people are thinking Elam is going to be part of the factor Sunday. I don't see how or why.

 

I think he dresses on Sunday. I have thought all season he would be active or inactive based on matchups. A game like this is when you want his particular skill set available. He is fast and physical and we can use that to disrupt some of Miami's timing passing game. 

 

Elam made a huge play in the playoff game last year against Miami, 24-20 Miami and they are driving and Elam makes a huge interception and then we go on to score two straight touchdowns. Game changing play. 

 

I could certainly be wrong, I am not McD. But just what I felt all season would be matchup play for the DBs. We will see. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Nephilim17]

Haven't been this nervous about a Phins game since I can remember...

[SCBills]

I'd like to see Elam active if for no other reason than we've seen him play well against their receivers.. and maybe Benford locks it down, but if we get in-game and see he's struggling with Hill/Waddle's speed, I'd like to have the option of giving Elam a shot. 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by SCBills

[Charles Romes]

Anyone know if this officiating crew will let the DBs play?  If they will, I want to see a lot of press coverage from Elam. 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Anyone know if this officiating crew will let the DBs play?  If they will, I want to see a lot of press coverage from Elam. 

 

Do we know yet who the officiating crew is?

[wjag]

Time to break out the red uniforms...  Record is pretty good in those as I recall..

[eball]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

I agree he has those. I agree it is what is needed. But I am not sure he can contribute with limited experience. 

 

I’ll jump in here.  While Elam hasn’t been active, he has still been with the team, in all of the meetings, and practicing each week.  He’s not “out of touch” with the team chemistry.  He played in big moments last year, including the playoffs.  He played on the same field with Tyreek & Co. three times last season.

 

I have no idea what they’ll do, but activating Elam this week and using his talents against this particular team wouldn’t shock me.

 

It really all comes down to whether McDermott believes he can trust him.

 

[BigDingus]

17 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  The home team only gets one and half now so the line setters are guessing the public sees us as 1 and 1/2 points better.  We'll see if this line shifts and I'm going to be really interested in where the sharp money goes.

 

Last year the average was 2 points for the home team, but I've always seen home teams being favored by only 3 points or less called "pick'em games," meaning there is no real favorite (or underdog).

Edited September 25, 2023 by BigDingus

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, wjag said:

Time to break out the red uniforms...  Record is pretty good in those as I recall..

I don’t know that we’ve ever worn the all-reds this early in the season…

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, HopelessNJBuffaloFan said:

I can easily see this game going either way both as a close game and a serious blowout by either team. The Fish are legit offense wise, and they are going to get their points. Our Defense is also legit. Our offense can put up some serious points if Josh's head is in the game and the Fins defense is not as near close as Washingtons and the Jets. Hope they show it here in NJ!!

I can’t really see the bills being blown out to be honest. As great as the Dolphins are, there is a slim chance we could blow them out if Tua somehow has a game like he did last year against the chargers. Or if he gets knocked out, of course. But even then, with Mike White being the back up their offense should be OK.

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

9 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

3 is a good line. I think the sharps will let the public get it down to -1 or -2 and then hammer the Bills back up to -3 or even-3.5 by kickoff. 

 

The Dolphins are legit. And their speed worries me. But keep them in front of you and get it done defensively in the red zone. Their defense has some big names but they don't scare me

Agree with this… 
 

I see it’s -2.5 now… I expect Joe Public to be all over the Dolphins and push it further down until the big hitters bet the Bills late..

[nashman]

Tua Tilapia is one good hit on the turf of becoming a cucumber for life...I'm not too worried!

[Dr.Sack]

Over under on how many times Tua is hit?

[balln]

4 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Over under on how many times Tua is hit?

Based on the season so far ? 1.5?

[QLBillsFan]

On 9/24/2023 at 2:56 PM, VaMilBill said:

If our offense plays the way it did today, we will lose by 17. But if we can get a strong run game going, utilize PA and keep ball control, I think we can win

Well, we ran the ball well and protected the QB. And managed the game with ball control. If we lose by 17 it will be for something other than those areas that you said they needed to do? So you think the Dolphin’s are just better.

[QLBillsFan]

On 9/24/2023 at 6:16 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

How do you propose they dominated that game when it took a last minute TD to win?

 

We may have different definitions of domination 

The O did, the D got smashed with running game. I’m thinking Bills need JA under center and run and play action .. cover the middle and force Tua to throw outside .. 3 safeties 🤷🏻‍♂️

[RiotAct]

19 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Over under on how many times Tua is hit?

I’ll say we get 3 sacks on ol’ Tua.  Knocked down a few more times.

[Peace Frog]

Last season, we were without Micah Hyde when we played them the second time & the playoffs. My big concern is how Mostert ran all over us in both of those games.

[Big Blitz]

Our defense did the equivalent of what their offense did. 
 

Oddly, it doesn’t get the same kind of coverage.  
 

F the Dolphins I expect to curb stomp them.  
 

Any other approach is 90s loser trauma ptsd.    
 

 

Put respect on our name.  Bills by 100.   

[Buffalo Ballin]

Can Damar Hamlin play now?

[LABILLBACKER]

13 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I feel the same. Elam has the skills and speed no other corner on our roster has. He should be our best bet for Miamis speed but I feel like he gonna be scratched anyways. 

Elam should just shadow Hill but he may not be activated?

6 minutes ago, SUNY_amherst said:

I think the Bills cover easily. 2 or 3 touchdown win 

I miss the days when we dominated the fish and Josh ran for 90+ yards.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Elam should just shadow Hill but he may not be activated?

I miss the days when we dominated the fish and Josh ran for 90+ yards.

 

I honestly don't think he will be active.  I think he should be and then put him in IF we are having problems.  I dunno that he needs to shadow because Waddle has speed too.  Having speed out there should be able to at least comfortably take one away.

[Joe Ferguson]

Bills by a billion. 

[harryS]

16 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

3 is a good line. I think the sharps will let the public get it down to -1 or -2 and then hammer the Bills back up to -3 or even-3.5 by kickoff. 

 

The Dolphins are legit. And their speed worries me. But keep them in front of you and get it done defensively in the red zone. Their defense has some big names but they don't scare me

 

I really don't think there will be such fluctuations for the marquee game of the week (especially not the 3.5), unless either team has an awful injury report.

 

I can see it staying -2.5 (juiced to Buf) or 3 (juiced to MIa) all week like it currently is now.  IMO 2.5 is a good number.  Hard to give that Miami offense the full 3 unless it's juiced and hard not to have Buffalo as a team rated at least even with MIami but more likely slightly ahead given the small sample of this season so far.  (Miami might turn out to be the better team, but we don't know that yet based on 3 games).  Thus 2.5 would be my number; Bills home field is probably worth 2 and then a half point to give us credit for being slightly better.

 

BTW, for those thinking this will get down to even, Circa is the sharpest book around and they currently have it at 3.  Circa and Pinnacle tend to be leading indicators for the market.  Meaning the line is currently more likely to go to 3 than to go down.

 

And again, none of this matters as to the outcome of the game.  Maybe Miami wins by 40.  Maybe the Bills do.  It's strictly about reading the market like nerds.

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by harryS

[TheBrownBear]

The Dolphins are really good but we've played the Tua/Hill/Waddle/Mostert version twice last year and should have come away 2-0. We can clearly beat these guys. Be disciplined ondefense and protect the football on offense and I like our chances.