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I Am Not Optimistic Going Into This Season


longtimebillsfan

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8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Because we have drama queens around here.  The OP talks about being a fan since 1963.  I’ve been a fan since 1960.  I still hold the memories of the AFL championships near to my heart.  I lived through the horrors of the late 60’s-early 70’s and the late 70’s-early 80’s.  I had the pleasure of watching the Juice and the Super Bowl era teams, and have watched the ups and downs in the 2000’s.  I am excited to watch this year - with guys like Josh and Diggs and Miller and Milano we have as good a shot as anyone.

 

I understand both perspectives.

 

There are some fans who are just happy the Bills are winning again.

 

There are others who will never be satisfied until the Bills bring home the Lombardi trophy.

 

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It is probably better to take that approach. If they underperform then it is not such a letdown and if they perform as well as they should then it is a pleasant surprise. At the end of the day, it is only a football game and how they perform either way is out of anyone's control other than who is actually on the field playing. 

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21 minutes ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

It is probably better to take that approach. If they underperform then it is not such a letdown and if they perform as well as they should then it is a pleasant surprise. At the end of the day, it is only a football game and how they perform either way is out of anyone's control other than who is actually on the field playing. 

Pessimism is a disease, so is cynicism

 

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3 hours ago, MJS said:

A perfect passer rating is 158.3, actually.

Yes, my bad. A small brainlock. More evidence, though, about counting stats: Kirksey had far opportunities to make plays than Edmunds last season because the Houston D was on the field for 1,134 plays while the Bills D was on the field for 997. In 2021, the Bills’ D played 1,014 plays to Houston’s 1,101. The Bills D simply gets off the field more quickly than Houston’s because opponents’ drives are shorter and consist of fewer plays.

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48 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

Todays league is about having a high powered offense and we continue to neglect that

Continue to neglect that...by having a top 3 offense in the league every year? 29 other teams are envious of our offense

 

 

I really dont see a path for our offense to be worse than last year. Status quo I can comprehend but not worse than having to sign Brown/Cole late in the season. And that offense was top 3 in almost every metric.

 

The defense has many more pathways to being worse statistically than last year (No Edmunds, aging secondary, Von out for significant time, change at DC). Im not saying it will happen but the pathways are there more-so than the offense. That said I will take that if they can situationally show up when it matters in the playoffs.

 

End of the day ill take improved offense and worse defense any day.

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3 minutes ago, jletha said:

Continue to neglect that...by having a top 3 offense in the league every year? 29 other teams are envious of our offense

 

 

I really dont see a path for our offense to be worse than last year. Status quo I can comprehend but not worse than having to sign Brown/Cole late in the season. And that offense was top 3 in almost every metric.

 

The defense has many more pathways to being worse statistically than last year (No Edmunds, aging secondary, Von out for significant time, change at DC). Im not saying it will happen but the pathways are there more-so than the offense. That said I will take that if they can situationally show up when it matters in the playoffs.

 

End of the day ill take improved offense and worse defense any day.

 

Its literally because of one player my friend.

 

They are going to cut Josh's career short by 5 years if they dont protect him with a line and better scheme.

 

Can you imagine this team without Josh Allen?

 

 

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Just now, Ramza86 said:

 

Its literally because of one player my friend.

 

They are going to cut Josh's career short by 5 years if they dont protect him with a line and better scheme.

 

Can you imagine this team without Josh Allen?

 

 

Can you imagine any team without their Franchise QB? What are we even saying here? We have better skill position players than the Chiefs FWIW. What are the Bengals doing without Burrow, how is their O-line? Burrow was sacked 41 times last year (6th in the league) and they beat our brains in in the playoffs.

 

Every single fan base hates their O-line. Josh runs out of clean pockets all the time.

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1 hour ago, Ramza86 said:

Todays league is about having a high powered offense and we continue to neglect that.

So what was your solution?  Sign an aging, overpriced stud at WR (see: OBJ, Hopkins, etc.)?  All while neglecting other needs?

 

There is this thing called "the cap".  

 

I think Beane did an amazing job drafting Kincaid, and bringing in decent depth at WR.  But to say he's neglected it is ridiculous.

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1 hour ago, Ramza86 said:

I think the defense is overrated, and it frustrates me how much money is spent on it and fail to produce when it matters.

 

Todays league is about having a high powered offense and we continue to neglect that.

 

Two big things to watch for me is:

- Can this offense finally put it together or will it be the same crap with Josh running for his life AGAIN.

- Can the defense stay healthy and actually dominate.

 

 


We continue to neglect offense yet the Bills have one of the best scoring offenses in the NFL and drafted a TE in the first round.

 

OK.

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19 minutes ago, Beast said:


We continue to neglect offense yet the Bills have one of the best scoring offenses in the NFL and drafted a TE in the first round.

 

OK.

 

The Bills are putting Allen through the wringer. Hes not going to last if we keep neglecting HIM (I guess thats where we will go with this).

 

I promise you he will leave this team if they dont do right by him.

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Yes, my bad. A small brainlock. More evidence, though, about counting stats: Kirksey had far opportunities to make plays than Edmunds last season because the Houston D was on the field for 1,134 plays while the Bills D was on the field for 997. In 2021, the Bills’ D played 1,014 plays to Houston’s 1,101. The Bills D simply gets off the field more quickly than Houston’s because opponents’ drives are shorter and consist of fewer plays.

Well, the offense plays into that too. If offenses are on the field sustaining drives, the defense is on for fewer plays. Both reasons play into it.

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20 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Please talk me off the ledge.

 

I could see this season with the Bills going 2-2 in their first four games.

 

The Jets will go into their home opener sky high.

 

We should be able to handle the Raiders and Commanders. 

 

The Dolphins game could go either way.  At least the game is in OP.

 

I just think that our team is weaker than last year.

 

I could realistically see the Bills missing the playoffs this year.

 

With all the pundants saying the Bills window is closing, I am starting to think that Josh may never get us to the Lombardi trophy.

 

My mindset this year is expecting the worse (i.e. 7-10 type season, no playoffs) but hoping for the best.

 

But for this to happen I think JA17 would have to have a true career year/MVP season to overcome the horrendous coaching and defense that I think might be terrible.

 

I also see this team losing to Jets and Dolphins early but they hopefully they can rack up a few wins and stay around .500 before the brutal 2nd half schedule where wins are likely going to be elusive.

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Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

My mindset this year is expecting the worse (i.e. 7-10 type season, no playoffs) but hoping for the best.

 

But for this to happen I think JA17 would have to have a true career year/MVP season to overcome the horrendous coaching and defense that I think might be terrible.

 

I also see this team losing to Jets and Dolphins early but they hopefully they can rack up a few wins and stay around .500 before the brutal 2nd half schedule where wins are likely going to be elusive.

i honestly feel better about the season after seeing this post.  no prediction you've made has ever come true...ever.

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If Josh Allen is fully healthy they are a top 5 team in the league and division winner.

 

Only thing I see them not being a serious Superbowl contender is an injured Allen OR the middle of the Defense being even worse than I think.  Poyer and Hyde I think are not going to be the strength everyone thinks they are anymore.  As long as they still are 'good', things will be ok.

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Yeah I have to agree with the title of this thread. I initially thought we would have an undefeated season averaging 37 points per game and giving up less than 7 all while Josh Allen throws 58 touchdowns and runs in 12 more on the way to an MVP season barely beating out Ed Oliver who picked up 33 sacks from the defensive tackle position on the way to a blowout Super Bowl win. But given the legit improvements of the other teams in the division as well as a questionable offensive line and some aging players in the defensive backfield, I will pivot to a 14-3 season, #1 seed, and a tightly fought Super Bowl win

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I don’t see how this team is worse than last year.

 

-WR looks better/deeper.

-RB looks deeper (and hopefully better).

-Tight End looks better/deeper.

-O line looks improved, especially the guard positions.

-Safety looks better with Hyde back, Poyer healthy and Rapp for depth

-D line looks better/deeper with Floyd, Poona Ford

-CB should be better too with a healthy Tre White and Benford playing well

 

Where are they worse besides MLB and maybe backup QB? I’d say they look better at most positions compared to last year.

 

They definitely face what could be a tough opponent week one. I think the Jets are going to be very hyped up and confident. I expect them to play with a lot of energy. But the Bills will hopefully be hyped up and confident too. I’m hoping the Jets will still be working out some kinks, being a new system and all. That also means the Bills won’t really have much tape though.

 

Even if the Bills lose week one, or start out 2-2 with 2 division losses, it’s not the end of the world. It obviously wouldn’t be ideal to start out with 2 division losses. But it wouldn’t be insurmountable. And we’ve seen teams peak too early. We’ve also seen teams start out slow and win the super bowl. Ideally, we want the Bills playing their best football entering the playoffs.

 

I’m not predicting anything. I’m hoping it will be a super bowl year, but who knows.

I’m going to try my best to just enjoy the ride. It’s only a game. We should enjoy it. If watching/following the Bills makes us miserable, then what are we doing? Why follow at all? Life is too short for that. My perspective has really changed with recent events that have happened in my life. I’m sick of worrying about non-consequential things like sports. I’m going to try my best to just enjoy watching the games like I do for other teams.

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I think the Bills are primed for a fantastic season.  Stacked roster with years of corporate knowledge of the system, love the roster moves at RB, and I think McDermott calling the defense is additive.  I also think the team, coaching staff included, realizes this season is "it" for the current iteration of the roster.  There's a remodeling coming next season, so the time is now.   

 

I think the idea of the "uber" Jets is overblown to a degree.  Teams take time to gel, and I expect them to be inconsistent Monday night on offense.  Miami rides and dies on an injury prone-QB.  The 2023 Patriots are the 2008 Bills.  Dangerous in September, but fade as the season goes on.  

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I look at it much like Gene Hackman’s line in Hoosiers when he’s addressing the pep rally before the first game: “THIS is your team.” The draft is over. Free agency is over. Preseason is over. The roster is set!  Now it’s up to the coaches to do something with the roster they’ve assembled. 

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22 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

I don't know how old you are, but for those over 50, this could be our greatest time to be a Bills fan. So enjoy every second because it may not be this good for quite a while. 

I'm 54 and one of of the big lessons from the 1990s was enjoy every moment, root for a game well played, love the wins, don't take the losses to heart. Enjoy the great play while we have it.

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2 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

 

The Bills are putting Allen through the wringer. Hes not going to last if we keep neglecting HIM (I guess thats where we will go with this).

 

I promise you he will leave this team if they dont do right by him.

I promise he retires as a Bill

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21 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Let's all face it...that Bengals game and recently that Steelers game let us Bills fans wondering what is going on?

 

First off, the window won't close until Josh Allen retires as he is the heart and soul of the team. So many are making conjectures about why the Bills are not the talk of this offseason. (Which in my opinion is a good thing as the Bills do better as underdogs.)

 

There are reasons for both those games and my take is the players were mentally spent with Hamlin almost dying on the field right in front of them. With the Steelers, Buffalo Beat them 38-3 last season in Buffalo... which was an embarrassment and I'd say they game-planned a bit for revenge. 

 

Anyway, the Buffalo offense was as good as, if not better than when Daboll was calling plays and KD was a rookie play caller. The offense got a whole lot better with the addition of rookie TE Dalton Kincade as Buffalo ran with 2 TEs very little last year and this year it looks to be their mainstay.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1624948-breaking-down-why-the-two-tight-end-offense-is-the-best-in-the-nfl

 

The guy they brought in last season to be the slot WR was injured right away and lil dirty turned out to be no so good... a big failure in that spot. The WR room improved a bunch and with a healthy Davis, it should be so much better. 

 

The Buffalo offensive line improved a whole lot over last season and RB James Cook is that breakaway back the Bills have been looking for. 

 

The Buffalo defense isn't currently crippled in the secondary like it was at the end of last season. The defense should be improved this season.

 

 Will will see which way it goes against the Jets on MNF vs. the Buffalo Bills who have been replaced by some as the SB favorites. 

 

I'm highly optimistic about this season.

Agreed on bolded. Can even be much better if Tre is 100% and return to his pre injury probowl self. 

 

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2 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

 

The Bills are putting Allen through the wringer. Hes not going to last if we keep neglecting HIM (I guess thats where we will go with this).

 

I promise you he will leave this team if they dont do right by him.

I picture Allen sitting in a pool of money wiping the tears away with hundred dollar bills. 

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With the roster going through its final machinations, I've got three areas that I think are critical for our season:

 

1) Dorsey. I thought we were remarkably inflexible with the play-calling last year. It was fine most of the time, but I thought our ability to adapt to defenses was poor. We have got to lean on the shorter and intermediate game and sprinkle in deep shots as our default, and then adjust as needed from there. 

2) The play of the offensive line. Positionally this is our most limiting factor. It's not a coincidence that the best OLine we've had in recent memory (which was only ranked 10th in the league fwiw) was the year we should have won the superbowl.

3) Health, as always. 

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Opponent                                                 Positive                                    Negative

@New York                                                   W                                              L
vs Las Vegas                                                W                                              W
@Washington                                               W                                              W
vs Miami                                                       W                                               L  
vs Jacksonville                                             W                                               L
vs New York G                                              W                                               L
@New England                                             W                                               L
vs Tampa Bay                                               W                                               W
@Cincinnati                                                   L                                                 L
vs Denver                                                      W                                              W
vs New York                                                  W                                               L
@Philadelphia                                                L                                                 L
@Kansas City                                                L                                                 L
vs Dallas                                                        W                                                L
@Los Angeles                                                L                                                 L
vs New England                                            W                                                W
@Miami                                                          L                                                 L

                                                                    12-5                                            5-12

 

I ran 100,000 simulations and this was the result. Hopefully it makes you feel better. 

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As to address the original poster. I'm not on a ledge but I am not expecting as many wins this year. Our schedule looks pretty tough. The distance between our division teams has narrowed. The Jets and Miami have closed the gap between us I believe and I'm expecting the Jets/Bills in a dog fight for the division. Also think Miami is improving. Divisional games are critical. I'm hoping for ten wins.

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

Opponent                                                 Positive                                    Negative

@New York                                                   W                                              L
vs Las Vegas                                                W                                              W
@Washington                                               W                                              W
vs Miami                                                       W                                               L  
vs Jacksonville                                             W                                               L
vs New York G                                              W                                               L
@New England                                             W                                               L
vs Tampa Bay                                               W                                               W
@Cincinnati                                                   L                                                 L
vs Denver                                                      W                                              W
vs New York                                                  W                                               L
@Philadelphia                                                L                                                 L
@Kansas City                                                L                                                 L
vs Dallas                                                        W                                                L
@Los Angeles                                                L                                                 L
vs New England                                            W                                                W
@Miami                                                          L                                                 L

                                                                    12-5                                            5-12

 

I ran 100,000 simulations and this was the result. Hopefully it makes you feel better. 

That's best case scenario in my opinion.

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I've said this numerous times already this offseason.

My mantra this year is what Jordan Poyer said in his "welcome back" presser.

 

When asked what the Bills have to do to win it all this season his answer was just "finish".

They have the team and organization to win it all.  It's up to everyone at OBD to just finish.

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23 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Please talk me off the ledge.

 

I could see this season with the Bills going 2-2 in their first four games.

 

The Jets will go into their home opener sky high.

 

We should be able to handle the Raiders and Commanders. 

 

The Dolphins game could go either way.  At least the game is in OP.

 

I just think that our team is weaker than last year.

 

I could realistically see the Bills missing the playoffs this year.

 

With all the pundants saying the Bills window is closing, I am starting to think that Josh may never get us to the Lombardi trophy.


 

Some concern is merited.  
 

1.  The OL might not be better, even with the changes at guard, unless the two tackles can step up.  
2.  The DL has good potential but only if both Oliver and Rousseau improve and become consistent playmakers.  
3.  Edmunds is gone and no one stepped up in preseason.   
4.  Von Miller is an expensive question mark.  
5.  Our corners are looking mediocre, we need the old Tre back.  
6.  McD has had issues with game day coaching, now he is running the defense on game day, maybe he always was.  
7.  Dorsey is not making me forget Daboll

 

on the positive side we have Josh Allen and we gave him a few new weapons.  We are still good enough to win the AFCE and get a shot at the big trophy.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:


 

Some concern is merited.  
 

1.  The OL might not be better, even with the changes at guard, unless the two tackles can step up.  
2.  The DL has good potential but only if both Oliver and Rousseau improve and become consistent playmakers.  
3.  Edmunds is gone and no one stepped up in preseason.   
4.  Von Miller is an expensive question mark.  
5.  Our corners are looking mediocre, we need the old Tre back.  
6.  McD has had issues with game day coaching, now he is running the defense on game day, maybe he always was.  
7.  Dorsey is not making me forget Daboll

 

on the positive side we have Josh Allen and we gave him a few new weapons.  We are still good enough to win the AFCE and get a shot at the big trophy.  

 

While your concern is well taken, it is highly unlikely they all are as negative as you think. It is much more likely some of them turn out just fine. Much the way assuming everything will be hunky dory, assuming all bad is equally unlikely.

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On 8/30/2023 at 11:26 AM, Max Fischer said:

"I just think that our team is weaker than last year." - You may want to compare the two rosters. 

 

"With all the pundants saying the Bills window is closing," - You probably spend too much time listening to the wrong pundits. 

 

I don't know how old you are, but for those over 50, this could be our greatest time to be a Bills fan. So enjoy every second because it may not be this good for quite a 

 

A person who is now ten years old would have probably had enough intellectual awareness to comprehend the revolting mass of sewage that was the Tyrod vs Bortels 10-3 playoff game. 

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1 hour ago, leonbus23 said:

 

A person who is now ten years old would have probably had enough intellectual awareness to comprehend the revolting mass of sewage that was the Tyrod vs Bortels 10-3 playoff game. 

 

Actually that was an offensive explosion compared to the epic Bills-Brown stinkeroo on October 11, 2009 when the Browns beat the Bills 6-3 after Parrish fumbled a kick off, enabling the Browns to kick the winning FG.   Derek Anderson threw 2 completions in 17 attempts for 23 yards and 1 INT.  The Browns didn't even have 200 yards of offense.  The Bills passed for more yards and ran for almost as much as Cleveland, but Trent Edwards was intercepted once and Roscoe Parrish lost two fumbles, including the one that led to the winning kick for the Browns.

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6 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

 

The Bills are putting Allen through the wringer. Hes not going to last if we keep neglecting HIM (I guess thats where we will go with this).

 

I promise you he will leave this team if they dont do right by him.

How is Allen being neglected and how are we not "doing right by him"?

 

Please elaborate with specifics.

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To the fans that are biting their fingernails off I just say enjoy the season we all wanna Super Bowl but if your expectation is that we win it all or bust you’re just going to ruin your season and ruin the fun with NFL for yourself
 

This team is more talented than what we have had in previous years. I am especially excited for what we can do in the running game which was needed at times last year.

 

A beefed up defensive line, including more pass, rushers was needed, and was obtained

 

Pop a  cold one enjoy the season

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28 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

To the fans that are biting their fingernails off I just say enjoy the season we all wanna Super Bowl but if your expectation is that we win it all or bust you’re just going to ruin your season and ruin the fun with NFL for yourself
 

This team is more talented than what we have had in previous years. I am especially excited for what we can do in the running game which was needed at times last year.

 

A beefed up defensive line, including more pass, rushers was needed, and was obtained

 

Pop a  cold one enjoy the season

 

The “enjoy the ride” attitude is a healthy one. It’s one I usually have, but have found difficult to embrace this off-season. I’m frustrated by the last four years in the playoffs. Okay really the last three, but still. I am not sure what the team can do in the regular season for me to feel good about the coaching staff in the playoffs. Getting the #1 seed would do it I’m sure, but that’s not a fair ask. What I need to see is the coaches meet the challenge in the post season. Until then I don’t know if I can really enjoy the regular seasons like I have up until now. [/vent]

 

I am hoping that when the real games start next week I’ll be able to buckle up and enjoy them like usual. 

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7 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

My mindset this year is expecting the worse (i.e. 7-10 type season, no playoffs) but hoping for the best.

 

But for this to happen I think JA17 would have to have a true career year/MVP season to overcome the horrendous coaching and defense that I think might be terrible.

 

I also see this team losing to Jets and Dolphins early but they hopefully they can rack up a few wins and stay around .500 before the brutal 2nd half schedule where wins are likely going to be elusive.

Predictable as snow in the winter in Buffalo.  Yawn.  

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