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Isaiah Hodgins Bills made big mistake


Chicagobills

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I wouldn't call it a "BIG" mistake, but we should have found a way to keep him.

 

I'm looking @ John Brown, Cole Beasley, Jamison Crowder, Isiah Mckenzie, Jake Kumerow and it doesn't look like a great move in hindsight.

 

Also, I thought it was an odd move after investing soo much time into this kid *shrugs*

 

We can't win them all, and sometimes good ones get away.

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13 hours ago, Chicagobills said:

This dude can play and we all knew it. Why wasn’t he given an opportunity?

Shakir will be just as good if not better by the end of the season.I know I’m such a Shakir Honk but this kid looks like he’s ready to breakout.

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"You have to have that mindset as a receiver," he said Sunday, via the New York Daily News. "That's something I really learned in Buffalo with Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabe Davis: When you line up, I'm the best receiver on that field and no one can stop me. You just have to believe in that and have that confidence in yourself, go out there play by play and show that improvement."

 

Oh great, he has learned a bunch from some of the best

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13 hours ago, Chicagobills said:

This dude can play and we all knew it. Why wasn’t he given an opportunity?

He had 8 catches for 105 yds and a TD yesterday. Good for him.

 

Diggs was 7 for 114 and Gabe was 6 for 113 and a TD against the Phins. Hodgins’ wasn’t going to supplant either of them here in Buffalo. At best that left him as a WR 4 and that spot was never going to be taken away from Shakir, who I believe will be a more productive pro than Hodgins in the end.

 

So that left him as a WR 5 and in the NFL players in that spot need to be STers, without  exception.

 

This is simply a case of the Giants having a clearer route for Hodgins to start and good for him, I hope he keeps on keeping on.

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This reminds me of Jimmy Smith from back in the day always hurt when the Dallas Cowboys drafted him…hurt again in Philly…picked up on his last chance with Jacksonville and wound up being their teams leading receiver in history.

These things happen.

He’s just getting chances now…the Bills are short handed at receiver now they have two street free agents and a rookie starting for them in the playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Being a fancy dan and trying for an angle kick after 17-0, and having it go OB and giving the Dolphins the 40-ball turned the game, and it's not the first time this year. I'm not against having a couple guys majoring in ST, although it'd be better if you weren't dead meat running them out there in a real O or D set. Neal is like that, he can run you some reps from time to time. This one relates directly to keeping Kumerow whose WR ceiling is... what really?... over Hodgins. You prioritize a 4th or 5th ST specialist over an actual weapon, which some people on the board did see the potential there between preseason and his elevations, and he goes off to the Giants and does exactly what people said he could do for the Bills. On top of providing something they really didn't have in the group aside from Diggs: hands.

Are you sure that’s what happened on the kickoff? I think the ball fell off the tee just before that, and Bass was therefore tentative on his approach when he reset it. That threw him off and so he shanked it. 

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It’s been over two months since we lost Hodgins. Where was all the protest when it happened? When we were being decimated by injuries and forced to carry other players at other positions on the active roster instead of another receiver?

 

I am genuinely happy for the kid that he is getting his shot and taking advantage. 

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14 hours ago, Chicagobills said:

This dude can play and we all knew it. Why wasn’t he given an opportunity?

 

They paid Mckenzie to take Beasley's place which although he is a good team mate he's not very consistent they also kept Kumero which is a good ST's player & maybe a blocker but i'm thinking Hodgins could have done that too .

 

Just given the hype from when he was drafted i figured he would be another weapon for Josh . Every time he was on the field he made plays not many because he wasn't used enough but it's all in hind sight now he's doing great & is usually good for 1 TD per game which that consistency would be a nice add to the Bills offense !! 

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14 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


Fans knew Hodgins could play though. I don’t recall what the fan sentiment was on Teller when he was here. Was he a guy that just turned a corner once he left? 

Teller showed good run blocking here he just needed to clean up his pass blocking techniques, which he did in Cleveland.

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14 hours ago, djp14150 said:


 

the issue was he was behind  receivers on the depth chart.  He was plucked from the PS by a former asst GM and OC.

 

Buffalo has a few draft picks either off if waiver or taking from the PS.

 

this will happen again.

My memory is that the  Bills cut him from the 53, perhaps hoping to put him back on the PS.  But, the Giants swooped in at that point and signed him.  The Bills got to cute playing the practice squad resigning game and lost Hodgkins.  Anyhow, comment about is correct.  He wouldn't be seeing the field, all the old slow guys got those opportunities

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42 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Are you sure that’s what happened on the kickoff? I think the ball fell off the tee just before that, and Bass was therefore tentative on his approach when he reset it. That threw him off and so he shanked it. 

 

Nah, I'm not sure. That's my speculation, but the fact that it happened twice in such a similar situation makes me suspicious.

30 minutes ago, T master said:

 

They paid Mckenzie to take Beasley's place which although he is a good team mate he's not very consistent they also kept Kumero which is a good ST's player & maybe a blocker but i'm thinking Hodgins could have done that too .

 

 

Hodgins wasn't nearly as good on teams, but many thought he was so much better than TDJ as a receiver in his preseason game action, that it should overrule Kumerow being rostered. Even the regular season elevations showed that's the kind of guy who moves chains. We want the Bills to matriculate, right?

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1.  You have to believe that if Josh felt more comfortable with Hodgins than with Gabe or the other guys that we kept, he would still be here.

 

2.  I think you will find that most guys who break out on their second or third teams came from better teams where they were unable to land a spot.

 

3.  I am not impressed by players who are unable (or worse, unwilling) to do what it takes to stick.  If you're a back or a receiver, unless you're a really high-round draft pick, you better be able to block and you better be able to play special teams.  I come from a baseball background and it's the same thing there:  unless you're a stud, you better be able to play multiple positions, move runners over, et cetera.  I'm not sure what's so hard about that to understand.

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14 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Because Kumerow. And that was a big mistake in hindsight. 

 

Back that thought up a little bit.  "Why wasn't he given an opportunity?"

 

Ask yourself what role Hodgins would fill on our team.  He's a big-bodied outside WR, correct?  That would be the role Gabe Davis holds.

 

Then there's Diggs, who is the star and plays "everywhere". 

There's McKenzie, the intended quick nimble and fast guy. 

There's Khalil Shakir, the intended quick nimble and fast guy of the future.

Hodgins really doesn't fill any of those roles.

 

When you look at it that way, the question comes down to "is Hodgins better than Davis, or is Hodgins not better than Davis?"

Davis had 6 receptions on 9 targets for 113 yds and a TD yesterday.

Hodgins had 8 receptions on 9 targets for 105 yds and a TD yesterday

 

I'd like to see Davis catching a few more balls, but overall, No, Hodgins is not better than Davis.  He's not a better route runner, he's not faster, he's not a better blocker.

 

So as far as opportunity, Hodgins opportunities with the Bills fell into three categories:

-injury replacement (avert!)

-the few snaps Kumerow and/or Shakir were getting

-special teams ( and his special teams play in preseason was not All That )

 

Do I think the Bills would have loved to keep Hodgins, Absolutely!
 

But why was it a mistake? 

 

Part of being a competitive team is that you need to let go of players who can play in the league, especially when the GM has to make roster choices - like the choice to put Tre White on the active roster while he wasn't ready to play, necessitating keeping an extra DB.

 

Maybe we could say the same thing about a mistake letting go of Ray Ray McCloud, who is 5th and 6th in the league for PR and KR with the 49ers.

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It's clear that Isaiah Hodgins can be an effective WR in the NFL when the ball is thrown his way. 

The real question is whether he was going to be a difference-maker on THIS roster.  Was HE the guy that was going to put this offense over the top?  I'm just not seeing it.

 

As a big outside receiver, is he better than Gabe Davis?  I don't see any evidence of that.

In practice, Hodgins was never able to surpass Jake Kumerow on the depth chart.  Seeing how Kumerow has also proven himself as a capable depth receiver AND solid special-teams contributor, that really isn't surprising.

 

So in terms of the actual position he plays, Hodgins was our #4 outside receiver behind Stefon Diggs, Davis and Hodgins.  When you factor in the slot guys (Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Khalil Shakir), he was probably the #7 guy most of the season.  Now that we've added John Brown as a speed threat and Cole Beasley, you are probably talking about him being the #8-9 guy.

 

I know people want to call this a miss by Brandon Beane, but I'm just not seeing how Hodgins ever gets playing time in this offense.

 

EDIT:

 

I will add that Hodgins was purged from our roster during the time we were dealing with crazy injuries everywhere.  So not only was he losing the numbers game in the WR rotation, the Bills were also forced to stash extra corners, safeties and linemen to navigate through it all.  It was pretty hard to justify protecting him with an active roster spot, when we were down to our third string defensive backs and needed to bring in Xavier Rhodes/Dean Marlowe.

Edited by mjt328
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9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I will add that Hodgins was purged from our roster during the time we were dealing with crazy injuries everywhere.  So not only was he losing the numbers game in the WR rotation, the Bills were also forced to stash extra corners, safeties and linemen to navigate through it all.  It was pretty hard to justify protecting him with an active roster spot, when we were down to our third string defensive backs and needed to bring in Xavier Rhodes/Dean Marlowe.

 

Exactly.  Beane didn't elevate Hodgins to the roster and then cut him and subject him to waivers just for shucks and giggles. 

 

He did it because he was dealing with an overall roster numbers-crunch at the time, that required him to sign someone to the 53 man roster because 2 PS elevations weren't enough, and required him to shed a man from the 53 man roster in order to sign Dean Marlowe and Tre White.

 

If Beane had kept Hodgins and not traded for Marlowe, we'd now be looking at a safety duo of Poyer and Jaquan Johnson or Cam Lewis.  People get all up in their "feels" OMG Beane cut a good player we could be using!  But does anyone think that would be a better idea?

 

I will say this - Beane seems to place an outsized (ha!) value on the contributions of Smurf WR.  But when it comes down to opponents playing press man and referees saying "let 'em play!", Smurfs are easier to jam and hold and take away sometimes.  I was disappointed that the Bills let go of the WR who best fit the "big possession receiver" type.

Edited by Beck Water
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2 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

My memory is that the  Bills cut him from the 53, perhaps hoping to put him back on the PS.  But, the Giants swooped in at that point and signed him.  The Bills got to cute playing the practice squad resigning game and lost Hodgkins.  Anyhow, comment about is correct.  He wouldn't be seeing the field, all the old slow guys got those opportunities

He was on bills PS and pulled by Giants because of their lack of WRs.

 

thr thing is he was behind Davis and Diggs.  He wasn’t a slot receiver. He was a ST gunner/ returner.

 

buffalo would dress those 2 and a slot receiver and another one. Preferably one with the high speed which he diesnt have.

 

if Davis/ Diggs got injured he might have gotten a shot.

 

If they keep him on the roster, who do they kick off? On offense fir him?

 

in a roster set up 

 

7 ST players— P,K,LS, Returner, gunner, 2 captains 

23 D. ..9 DL, 5/6 LB, 8/9 DB

21 O…2 QB, 9 OL, 4 WR, 3 RB, 2 TE. 1 RB/WR/TE

2 rookie spots or injury replacement spots

 

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12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

It's clear that Isaiah Hodgins can be an effective WR in the NFL when the ball is thrown his way. 

The real question is whether he was going to be a difference-maker on THIS roster.  Was HE the guy that was going to put this offense over the top?  I'm just not seeing it.

 

As a big outside receiver, is he better than Gabe Davis?  I don't see any evidence of that.

In practice, Hodgins was never able to surpass Jake Kumerow on the depth chart.  Seeing how Kumerow has also proven himself as a capable depth receiver AND solid special-teams contributor, that really isn't surprising.

 

So in terms of the actual position he plays, Hodgins was our #4 outside receiver behind Stefon Diggs, Davis and Hodgins.  When you factor in the slot guys (Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Khalil Shakir), he was probably the #7 guy most of the season.  Now that we've added John Brown as a speed threat and Cole Beasley, you are probably talking about him being the #8-9 guy.

 

I know people want to call this a miss by Brandon Beane, but I'm just not seeing how Hodgins ever gets playing time in this offense.

 

EDIT:

 

I will add that Hodgins was purged from our roster during the time we were dealing with crazy injuries everywhere.  So not only was he losing the numbers game in the WR rotation, the Bills were also forced to stash extra corners, safeties and linemen to navigate through it all.  It was pretty hard to justify protecting him with an active roster spot, when we were down to our third string defensive backs and needed to bring in Xavier Rhodes/Dean Marlowe.

I agree with most of what you say

 

Kummerow did ST he seemed to not do it. Kumerow got a ST roster spot.

 

the way I look at the roster is you have the 3 standard ST slots of kicker, punter, and long snapper. You also have a few others like 2 captains for the units ( punt, FG, KO, punt) and a returner and gunner.

 

as for slot. McKenzie and crowder are them. I see Shakir as a possible outside option…not a pure slot.

 

you develop a very good team your hotyom level depth is usually better which is why good teams tend to get focused on in UFA signings and raiding PS.

 

Another factor is familiarity. Giants gm was under Beane and coach was OC in buffalo so they knew much more about him than other teams.

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Back that thought up a little bit.  "Why wasn't he given an opportunity?"

 

Ask yourself what role Hodgins would fill on our team.  He's a big-bodied outside WR, correct?  That would be the role Gabe Davis holds.

 

 

 

Yeah, it was always a tough make for Hodges. But there were definitely a lot of folks at the time that wanted Hodges over Kumerow at the time. So this isn't reactionary after the fact with benefit of hindsight for many.

 

It all came down to Hodges vs. Kumerow. That was the roster spot up for grabs. On paper at the time deciding the final 53 made sense. Nobody thought Davis and McKenzie would have down years like they have had. Davis was poised for a monster breakout year and McKenzie was having a great camp and pre-season and looked like a strong breakout candidate as well. Shakir obviously had a spot as well. Those three players plus Diggs were locks. One could also debate Crowder but the team wanted a veteran slot guy I think.

 

In hindsight the decision was horrendous as both Crowder and Kumerow would go on to miss the majority of the season and Davis and McKenzie would greatly underperform to expectations. Not sure if there is a lesson learned here or not. If so, i guess the lesson is don't over value special teams and don't assume players are going to take that next step. The more promising contributors and playmakers you have the better in case of injury or underperformance. 

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22 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


Fans knew Hodgins could play though. I don’t recall what the fan sentiment was on Teller when he was here. Was he a guy that just turned a corner once he left? 

yes he was avg at best on Bills and light went on in Cleveland.

 

similar light went on for Kyle Williams who sucked his first two years them boom.

Ed Oliver too.

 

hard to predict. it is a guessing game IE: do you have time to wait depending on team situation IE: rebuild years 1, 2, or 3, playoff mode, SB challenger mode. Lots of factors and that's why good GM's are hard to find and they all make mistakes.

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It’s not easy to make a Bills roster.  Kudos to Beane.  Cuts were toughest in Bills history.  Me and many of us were big Hodgins and Blackshear fans.  Both are having some success in NFL.   But it’s a numbers game.  What WR and RB are you going to cut?

 

Kumerow is a core special team player on every unit.

 

Taiwan is one of better special team players in NFL

 

neither Hodgins or Blackshear offer special teams upside.  Beane stated that if a player wasn’t starting, the roster spots are decided by what they bring to special teams.  So logic states you keep Kumerow and Taiwan.  


Hindsight = bad move because you didn’t have foresight 

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22 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

The powers that be couldn’t see beyond special teams, and ending up losing a young WR  with size and a lot of potential. 

I liked him also but he seemed to be injured a lot when he was here & there reports that he was slow. Well slow or not Dabol knows how to scheme him open. Not sure Dorsey could use him properly. Also all glory is fleeting--defenses will start to pay more attention to him as opposed to the other receivers.

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27 minutes ago, Pete said:

It’s not easy to make a Bills roster.  Kudos to Beane.  Cuts were toughest in Bills history.  Me and many of us were big Hodgins and Blackshear fans.  Both are having some success in NFL.   But it’s a numbers game.  What WR and RB are you going to cut?

 

Kumerow is a core special team player on every unit.

 

Taiwan is one of better special team players in NFL

 

neither Hodgins or Blackshear offer special teams upside.  Beane stated that if a player wasn’t starting, the roster spots are decided by what they bring to special teams.  So logic states you keep Kumerow and Taiwan.  


Hindsight = bad move because you didn’t have foresight 

Very insightful post. I was very disappointed when we lost Blackshear but now that James Cook is coming on I feel better.

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17 hours ago, Beast said:


Ummmm…he couldn’t stay healthy? Yes, ideally it would be great to have him but the Bills did nothing wrong here.

I think he was healthy.  I think we didn't have a roster spot for him since he didn't play STs.  Therefore we stashed him as injured.

 

Its good for him to have an opportunity he was not getting here.  I do wish he was still on the team though.

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On 1/16/2023 at 9:21 AM, Chicagobills said:

This dude can play and we all knew it. Why wasn’t he given an opportunity?

 

 

He looks OK. Not special, but OK.

 

 

On 1/16/2023 at 9:36 AM, H2o said:

Hodgins truly has made the most of his opportunity. I'm happy for the guy. He wouldn't have been seeing the same usage here though. He's in a great spot where he can be featured. Good for him, Dabs, and the G-men

 

 

Yeah, this exactly.

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13 hours ago, Buftex said:

So were the fans who wanted Zay Jones "gone" right as well?

I always felt that was a mistake. Duke was horrible. A lot of people here wanted Duke over Zay. Probably some that feel Hodgins is good enough to start here. He isn’t. 

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22 hours ago, djp14150 said:

He was on bills PS and pulled by Giants because of their lack of WRs.

 

No, this isn't right.  He was signed to the Bills 53-man roster on October 8, after we lost McKenzie to concussion and Crowder to a broken leg during the Ravens game.  We were already without Kumerow to a high-ankle sprain during the Dolphins game, so we called up Tanner Gentry.    At the same time, we signed Ja'Marcus Ingram (DB) and elevated Joe Giles-Harris due to injuries at DB and LB.  It was a really tough stretch for injuries and a roster "numbers game.

 

Hodgins stayed on the 53-man roster until 11/1, when we had to make roster moves to make room for Dean Marlowe (trade) and Tre White (end of his 21-day window to return from PUP. 

 

The problem was, at that point Spencer Brown had been out the previous week, was questionable and in fact did not play against the Jets; Mitch Morse was on injury report with an elbow; Matt Milano had an oblique injury, was questionable, and did not play; Jordan Poyer was "out" with an elbow injury; and Tre White was not going to play.  So we weren't able to cut someone on OL, LB, or DB and still assure having enough players to field at those positions.

 

I'm sure Beane didn't want to cut Hodgins, but at the time Kumerow was back, had played the previous week, and played that week and the following week before landing on IR, so in terms of numbers at different positions on the roster, it made sense.  I know people here don't value Kumerow as a WR and don't value ST, but Beane does both.  If he'd had a "crystal ball" to know Kumerow would only make it two more games before landing on IR, I'm sure he'd have kept Hodgins.

 

BTW we cut Brandin Bryant the same day as Hodgins and he was picked up by the Texans.  Pretty sure Beane didn't like that either, but they released him a month later and Beane took him back. 

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4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

The only one to blame for Isaiah Hodgins not getting enough opportunities on the Bills is Isaiah Hodgins. People who are deriding the Bills staff for this, of all things, are ridiculous.

 

I'm pretty sure Hodgins would have seen playing time week 11 and week 12 when we were calling up Tanner Gentry and giving him snaps because Kumerow went on IR.  Pretty sure Beane would rather have had Hodgins then. 

 

But the people lambasting the FO for cutting Hodgins when the Bills did, don't look at the entire roster picture the way Beane has to, and failed to place an order for an infalliable Crystal Ball to be installed in Beane's office.

 

I have not been watching the Giants too much.  But Hodgins was on the field more than half the snaps since they signed him, and was only getting 3-4 targets per game for 36 ypg until the first Giants-Minnesota game, when he went nuts for 8 receptions/90 yds, 2nd game 8 receptions/105 yds.  Overall, he's been getting 8.5 YBC which suggests to me that he's being targeted on intermediate routes that aren't in the Bills passing vocabulary this season, but if they were, they'd be run by Knox, Davis, and Diggs.  So which of those 3 do people want to sit for him?

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No, this isn't right.  He was signed to the Bills 53-man roster on October 8, after we lost McKenzie to concussion and Crowder to a broken leg during the Ravens game.  We were already without Kumerow to a high-ankle sprain during the Dolphins game, so we called up Tanner Gentry.    At the same time, we signed Ja'Marcus Ingram (DB) and elevated Joe Giles-Harris due to injuries at DB and LB.  It was a really tough stretch for injuries and a roster "numbers game.

 

Hodgins stayed on the 53-man roster until 11/1, when we had to make roster moves to make room for Dean Marlowe (trade) and Tre White (end of his 21-day window to return from PUP. 

 

The problem was, at that point Spencer Brown had been out the previous week, was questionable and in fact did not play against the Jets; Mitch Morse was on injury report with an elbow; Matt Milano had an oblique injury, was questionable, and did not play; Jordan Poyer was "out" with an elbow injury; and Tre White was not going to play.  So we weren't able to cut someone on OL, LB, or DB and still assure having enough players to field at those positions.

 

I'm sure Beane didn't want to cut Hodgins, but at the time Kumerow was back, had played the previous week, and played that week and the following week before landing on IR, so in terms of numbers at different positions on the roster, it made sense.  I know people here don't value Kumerow as a WR and don't value ST, but Beane does both.  If he'd had a "crystal ball" to know Kumerow would only make it two more games before landing on IR, I'm sure he'd have kept Hodgins.

 

BTW we cut Brandin Bryant the same day as Hodgins and he was picked up by the Texans.  Pretty sure Beane didn't like that either, but they released him a month later and Beane took him back. 

 

People see Hodgins make some plays and jump up to complain. It means nothing with the type of context you have provided. It’s not as easy as the folks here like to think. I’ll trust our FO over the gang on a message board. 

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Hodgins has had one good game.   Before this weekend, he had ONE game with more than 45 receiving yards.  

 

The Bills did not make a “big mistake” with Hodgins, they drafted him, kept him on the team despite him not being able stay healthy the first two years, and wanted to keep hm on the team when they attempted to send him back to the practice squad.

 

The Giants happened to be suffering several injuries with their WR’s, and, as a group, were well below average.

 

So, the grabbed him on waivers, after Hodgins cleared waivers several time before with no team claiming him.

 

At the start of the year, Hodgins was just not good enough to claim a top six spot in the WR position....which is not surprising when trying to do so on a very deep, Super Bowl contending roster.

 

He had no value on special teams and was just not good enough.  With the Giants below average WR corps, maybe he has found a home.

 

With the Giants success this season, I expect them to make every effort to upgrade their WR’s.  I also suspect that Hodgins will fall down the depth chart when they do that.

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Hodgins has great hands. That's why we kept him around through injury and roster limitations. Ultimately, his own limitations with regard to speed and ST prowess or lack thereof, cost him any chance to see significant playing time on the Bills. He'd still be on our PS if not for the Giants' opportunity.

Edited by clayboy54
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It was a numbers game, at the time we had too many WRs for roster spots. And frankly, Hodgins had 3 years to break into the starting lineup and couldnt do it. I dont see anyone in our top 3 that he is clearly better than, especially in 2020 and 2021. Even Davis with his step back this year.

 

Cant keep them all. Good problem to have: Beane bringing in more talent than we have room for.

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