Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Golden]

So well said!  “QB Stats award”.  Context is thrown out the window. 

[Steptide]

Are the bills practicing today? 

[BearNorth]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

No team has won a championship so yeah, this is pretty big.

1964 and 1965 Bills would beg to disagree.  Bills won the 1965 title on the road.

 

This old guy remembers those titles.  Agreed, much harder now with so many teams in the playoffs.

[strive_for_five_guy]

31 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Thanks for the numbers. Well thought out but still its all relative and had variables that just can't be factored in. Such as weather, injuries, and match ups. That's really my point.

 

I believe your point is that the #1 seed is a huge advantage. I couldn't agree more. You are 100% correct. Playing one less game and being at home is obviously big! Anyone who thinks otherwise really isn't a knowledgeable football fan. With that said, it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl appearance or even a playoff win. Look at last year as can example. 

 

In concluding the #1 seed is a very big deal and advantage. Yet, if the Bills lose the #1 seed they still can represent the AFC. Each path is substantially different with different degrees of difficulty. Personally, I like the Bills chances of winning the AFC as the #1 seed. If they lose that seed it's very possible they might have to win in Cinci and in KC. I really don't like that. 

Correct, that was my only point the whole time.  CincyBillsFan had questioned you about how much the one seed really matters.

 

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Bingo. They’re not looking at them or at least not much. It’s not an MVP award anymore, it’s a best QB stats award. Easy as looking at stats, no real leg work or in depth analysis required. As pointed out , Mahomes has played almost every game in ideal conditions. That’s more than enough to account for a couple hundred yards over a season. 

 

Mahomes still typically puts up like 300 yards passing and is relatively consistent with completion percentage even when he has bad games with INTs. Allen sometimes has these outlier games where he has under 200 yards passing with INTs and low completion percentages that hurt him more than the actual INTs themselves do, IMO.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Big Turk

[Chandler#81]

 

[Last Guy on the Bench]

7 hours ago, BRH said:

 

One more thing.  Think about how much harder it is now than it was in the ‘90s.  Back then there were 16 regular season games, two byes and just five playoff teams.  Plus the scheduling was more random - we had eight division games (six of them against patsies), four non-conference games, and just four other games that depended on where we finished the previous year.  Now it’s six division games (and the AFCE is stronger now than it was then), four non-conference games, and seven games that depend on the previous year’s finish.  Those extra games in the last category are likely to make the schedule harder for a good team.  And the last game of the season now is usually a divisional matchup instead of a mail-in non-conference game. Given that and everything else that’s happened this year, 12-3 so far is pretty damned impressive. 

 

 

?? There are only three games based on the previous year's finish aren't there? 14 are predetermined and have nothing to do with your previous record.

 

Each team plays 6 in their division, 4 from the conference division they are matched up with that year (rotating, predictable, same for everyone in your division), 4 from the non-conference division they are matched up with that year (same thing), and then the three finish-dependent games - the team who finished in equivalent position in the two conference divisions you are not playing, and then the equivalent team in one of the (rotating) non-conference divisions - which is the new 17th game.

[BRH]

5 minutes ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

?? There are only three games based on the previous year's finish aren't there? 14 are predetermined and have nothing to do with your previous record.

 

Each team plays 6 in their division, 4 from the conference division they are matched up with that year (rotating, predictable, same for everyone in your division), 4 from the non-conference division they are matched up with that year (same thing), and then the three finish-dependent games - the team who finished in equivalent position in the two conference divisions you are not playing, and then the equivalent team in one of the (rotating) non-conference divisions - which is the new 17th game.

I was just testing to see who would read all that.  

 

Youre right of course, my bad. I still think it’s harder now than it was for us in the 90s, because the Jets and Pats are better than they were back then and we don’t get two games against the lowly Colts either. 

[Low Positive]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Mahomes still typically puts up like 300 yards passing and is relatively consistent with completion percentage even when he has bad games with INTs. Allen sometimes has these outlier games where he has under 200 yards passing with INTs and low completion percentages that hurt him more than the actual INTs themselves do, IMO.

As @Boatdrinks mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a wind game this year. He hasn’t even had to play in light rain. Didn’t even have a heat game. Somehow, he has had nearly perfect conditions for 15 straight games despite playing in an outdoor stadium. It was cold in KC on Sunday, but no wind and no snow. This Sunday in KC? Partly sunny and 51 with no wind. Monday night in Cincinnati? Rain with the chance for thunderstorms. Sometimes you just gotta laugh.

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

As @Boatdrinks mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a wind game this year. He hasn’t even had to play in light rain. Didn’t even have a heat game. Somehow, he has had nearly perfect conditions for 15 straight games despite playing in an outdoor stadium. It was cold in KC on Sunday, but no wind and no snow. This Sunday in KC? Partly sunny and 51 with no wind. Monday night in Cincinnati? Rain with the chance for thunderstorms. Sometimes you just gotta laugh.

 

Yeah, Allen isn't being done any favors, for sure...thought Kelly won one but I see it was Thurman who did in 1991.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Big Turk

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yeah, Allen isn't being done any favors, but Kelly won an MVP playing in the same stadium so it isn't impossible.

I don’t believe Jim Kelly ever won an NFL MVP award, but maybe I’m mistaken. 

[YoloinOhio]

47 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Are the bills practicing today? 

No, Thursday-Saturday 

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I don’t believe Jim Kelly ever won an NFL MVP award, but maybe I’m mistaken. 

 

You are right...it was Thurman who won it in 1991. The last non QB who won it was another RB, Ladanian Tomlinson in 2006

Edited December 28, 2022 by Big Turk

[Warcodered]

 

[newcam2012]

49 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

As @Boatdrinks mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a wind game this year. He hasn’t even had to play in light rain. Didn’t even have a heat game. Somehow, he has had nearly perfect conditions for 15 straight games despite playing in an outdoor stadium. It was cold in KC on Sunday, but no wind and no snow. This Sunday in KC? Partly sunny and 51 with no wind. Monday night in Cincinnati? Rain with the chance for thunderstorms. Sometimes you just gotta laugh.

Are the "football gods" trying to tell us something? 

[Fleezoid]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Are the "football gods" trying to tell us something? 

 

Yes! And then they turn to each other and say, "It's been 50 years. How many hints do they need?"

[EmotionallyUnstable]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

For Cinci, the RBs catch lots of passes. I believe they are in the top 5 in the NFL. Their west coast offensive scheme is based on rhythm and getting the ball off quickly. Burrows is near the top of QBs in releasing the ball quickly. Not sure what scheme the Bills D employs to stop Cinci. It will be a very tough task to stop Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Could be the best 3 WR combo in the league. WR Irwin whoever he is has been burning it up too. Burrow will make plays because he's elite. This game should tell us off the Bills D is legit. 

 

Conversely, I'm not sold on the Cinci D. The Bills are much more balanced and a very good offense. I believe Allen will be ready to play. I don't want to see an overhyped and poor Allen out of the gate. Seems to be a theme throughout his career. The Bills offense should have success against the Bengals. 

What you say is true, they catch a lot of passes. I don’t necessarily think that means they are better at RB than the Bills. Here are some numbers:

 

Mixon and Perine combined:

 

120 targets…78% catch rate for 92 grabs for 683 yards … 6 TDs…7.4 ypc

 

Singletary and Cook combined:

 

81 targets…. 72% catch rate for 58 grabs for 451 yards and 2 TDs….7.7 ypc

 

The backs will be a factor in the passing game for sure, likely for both teams. I just don’t know that the Bengals backs are elite at catching passes and making things happen, and they definitely are not as successful on the ground. As you mentioned their WR room is much more concerning. 

 

Like @PatsFanNH mentioned, it is just an opinion, and it is okay that they differ.  While some may think their backs will be a problem, I like the match up with our LBs and S…I remain more focused on how the CBs and rest of the secondary will contain the WRs….it’s possible through alignment and scheme, the RBs will have a big day. If I know anything about Fraiser, it’d be that he’s more willing to get beat by dink and dunks than the long ball. 

[Warcodered]

NFL Preview

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

Please can we just put together a complete game and slap all those down who continue to make excuses about KC and Cincy being better...oh, and get one step away from locking up HFA?

 

I would love 40 degrees, Josh going 27-35 for 350, with 5 total TDs (4 air, 1 ground) and all runners totaling 130-140 yards, and at least 6 TDs in a 45 - 21 game.

 

That really isn't asking for much.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Awwufelloff]

Biggest regular season game in how long? 

[Greg S]

Someone likes Burrow.

 

[dakrider]

Best bet is Allen tries to throw a bomb on the first possession so their 2 safeties sit back, and then Bills work on running the ball and the short passing game and stay out of the 3rd and longs. 

[Bray Wyatt]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

You are right...it was Thurman who won it in 1991. The last non QB who won it was another RB, Ladanian Tomlinson in 2006

 

Adrian Peterson 2012

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

As @Boatdrinks mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a wind game this year. He hasn’t even had to play in light rain. Didn’t even have a heat game. Somehow, he has had nearly perfect conditions for 15 straight games despite playing in an outdoor stadium. It was cold in KC on Sunday, but no wind and no snow. This Sunday in KC? Partly sunny and 51 with no wind. Monday night in Cincinnati? Rain with the chance for thunderstorms. Sometimes you just gotta laugh.

And Josh Allen replied "I am the storm".

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

And Josh Allen replied "I am the storm".

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d3db062d-549c-4f38-9a4f-906e1db54b76

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Big Turk

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

56 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Someone likes Burrow.

 

‘Not even close’ hahaha.  Burrow is useless when his offensive line isn’t playing well.  And I don’t think Allen’s offensive line has ever consistently played well

1 hour ago, Awwufelloff said:

Biggest regular season game in how long? 

Second regular season game against the pats last year was bigger imo…dolphins game this year was bigger too

[TBBills]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Someone likes Burrow.

 

This guy says something different every week. His favorite is whatever QB he saw a picture of before the show.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

5 hours ago, stevewin said:

Grounds for divorce?

 

Almost 20 years I have learned to live with her even after the Bills beat her Colts in the playoffs 👺

[TBBills]

4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

‘Not even close’ hahaha.  Burrow is useless when his offensive line isn’t playing well.  And I don’t think Allen’s offensive line has ever consistently played well

Second regular season game against the pats last year was bigger imo…dolphins game this year was bigger too

This is the difference between #1 seed and #3 seed. 

[Success]

1 hour ago, Awwufelloff said:

Biggest regular season game in how long? 

 

KC earlier this season was pretty big, too.  But this feels epic because the season is winding down, and everything hangs in the balance.

 

It's so much fun.  For so many years, we were just playing out the string at this point, and thinking about the draft.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, TBBills said:

This guy says something different every week. His favorite is whatever QB he saw a picture of before the show.

Didn’t he love baker? Lol

[CincyBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Second regular season game against the pats last year was bigger imo…dolphins game this year was bigger too

I agree.  This game was much bigger then the Monday night game against the Bengal's.  If the Bills had lost that game they would likely have lost the division.

 

 

[eball]

5 minutes ago, TBBills said:

This guy says something different every week

 

Actually, he says the same stuff repeatedly until it is proven wrong...at which point he picks a new hot take to pound until that too is proven wrong.

 

It's his schtick, and for some reason he keeps getting paid to do it.  Unreal.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree.  This game was much bigger then the Monday night game against the Bengal's.  If the Bills had lost that game they would likely have lost the division.

 

 

Yea I think there’s some recency bias going on here lol a loss to the pats last year would’ve been throwing the division away.  This bengals game at worst were the 3 seed and we have already clinched the division.  We’ve won 2 of our last 3 at arrowhead and were a defensive meltdown away from 3 out of 3 so it’s not like we have no chance if we’re not the 1 seed.  
 

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Greg S]

11 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

‘Not even close’ hahaha.  Burrow is useless when his offensive line isn’t playing well.  And I don’t think Allen’s offensive line has ever consistently played well

Second regular season game against the pats last year was bigger imo…dolphins game this year was bigger too

 

I think this one vs the Bengals is the biggest regular season game in a long time. Bills win they are probably the #1 seed. Lose and they are looking at the #3 seed. The Bills more than anybody feed off the home crowd. McDermott is undefeated at home in the playoffs but winless on the road.

[GolfandBills]

1 hour ago, Awwufelloff said:

Biggest regular season game in how long? 

8 days

[TBBills]

I'm glad the media is all over the Bengals.

[Motorin']

6 minutes ago, TBBills said:

I'm glad the media is all over the Bengals.

 

They brought up the Bills / Bengals game on MNF this week, and Aikmen talked about how much this game means for Cincinnati and how they can get the #1 seed about three times during the broadcast. 

 

Didn't mention Buffalo winning the game or getting the #1 seed once. 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Someone likes Burrow.

 

 

I mean, I could accept any answer anyone gives for QBs.  They are all on the same level with a little bit different styles.  Saying "it's not even close" is ridiculous though

[97bills]

I think every game was big after KC lost and we took the number one seed. Even if we beat cin this week. Guess what next week playing NE will be a huge game , because I’m sure they want to end on a hi note plus we all no they hate us. So every game until the season is over is huge.