Bills open as 1.5 point favorites against Bengals(O/U 49)

[Process]

Just now, DrBob806 said:

Allen & Mahomes are QBs who are better, significantly better

Fixed it 

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I don’t know man.  They went to the SB last year and are on a 7 game win streak right now .  Trying to rank the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs is really hard.

 

Not really. DVOA is custom built to do just that.

[DrBob806]

23 minutes ago, Process said:

Fixed it 

You haven't watched Burrow very much.

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, zow2 said:

This game will definitely decide the #1 seed.  It will be interesting to see if the Bills match up well with Cinci.  

 

As we’ve seen, Kansas City has all kinds of trouble with Cincinnati,  and the Bills (in the playoffs) have not fared well against KC.

But who knows… Buffalo might match up well with the Bengals?  We shall see.

This game should be a war. Bengals at home certainly helps them. I can definelty see this game going right down to the wire. 

 

The Bengals have some scary offensive weapons. Burrows usually shows up in big games. He's capable of going toe to toe with Allen. Chase and Higgins are a very good 1-2 punch. Nixon is capable of having a big game. 

 

The Bills offense with Allen will have to play well to win. 

 

This is going to be a really good measuring stick for both teams. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by newcam2012

[No_Matter_What]

What a brutal game.

 

We win - most likely 1 seed, bye, Ravens/Jags at home while Bengals/Chiefs fight each other and then we get beaten up winner at home in AFCCG.

 

We lose - no bye, most likely 3 seed, Chargers/Dolphins in WC, then road game in Cincy again, if we win AFCCG at Kansas again.

 

Hard to imagine any regular season game having more PO implications.

 

Good thing is that it is primetime, and we all know how primetime Josh usually looks like. And I think that everything what happened this season just made team mentally tough, we beat Bengals and get bye we deserve.

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, LondonBill said:

I'm still not 100% sure we've seen the full Bills yet. Someone else posted a few weeks ago about how we might be keeping our powder dry for the playoffs. I do wonder. And this might as well be a playoff game considering how important it is. Not using Diggs today makes me even more suspicious we've got a whole bunch of ideas we've not shown and have no desire to show yet. But i could just be dreaming. 

not sure about that. But look for Allen to go over 10 rushes and 70 yards rushing given the stakes for next weeks game.

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Mahomes threw 0 INTs today but his team scored 24 points.  Allen threw 2 and the Bills scored 35...28 even without the late TD. 

Mahomes had a QBR today lower than Allen’s too. He had around a 35QBR. Must have been a few easy dropped INTs. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, LondonBill said:

I honestly can't work out how good we are. It's really difficult - and I've watched every game except miami at home/ 

 

I look at the 49ers team and think 'we're not *that* good are we?' then i look at the records and, yeah, we must be better. I look at the fixture list and it confirms that we can't be faking it. 

 

I have absolutely no expectations of reaching let alone winning the SB. But in thinking that, I'm under-rating us. 

 

We are the strangest, most enigmatic side I've ever watched. 

Yeah. This team is good despite not playing to their potential. They haven’t played at that level since week 2.

 

but at the end of the day, they lead the league in point differential while playing one of the hardest schedules in the league. All three losses by 8 points total. 
 

our QB has been a turnover machine but he’s also tied for 2nd in the league in total TD’s. 
 

the team tends to bring their best game in primetime games so things look good for the near future.

 

that said, this game against the Bengals is a total toss up IMO. 

[Bookie Man]

teams favored 1.5 cover 68% of the time. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I’d like to see Beasley be a big part of this next game. Allen tried to go to the McKenzie well on passes 20+ yards down the field a couple times and came up bust both times.

20 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

What a brutal game.

 

We win - most likely 1 seed, bye, Ravens/Jags at home while Bengals/Chiefs fight each other and then we get beaten up winner at home in AFCCG.

 

We lose - no bye, most likely 3 seed, Chargers/Dolphins in WC, then road game in Cincy again, if we win AFCCG at Kansas again.

 

Hard to imagine any regular season game having more PO implications.

 

yep. Like I said. Put absolutely everything you can afford to lose on the Bengals! The pain of an L will be too much otherwise. 

[Iverwig]

Maybe it’s because despite the win streak by the Bengals outside of the Chiefs they really haven’t played or beaten anyone good this year. I was slightly concerned about the game next week initially, but after looking at their overall schedule I’m not anymore. It doesn’t mean the Bengals are not good or can’t win, but they’ve sure have had an easy schedule this season. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Iverwig

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, jcamm1966 said:

Josh better not have any WTH Josh plays like today next week or its a blowout

I just don’t understand what game you guys are watching, really don’t. 

[78thealltimegreat]

It’s primetime I never bet against Josh Allen when some people think the other QB is better then him. 

[Big Turk]

Holy crap!! Bengals plane on flight home had a failing engine and had to make an emergency landing at JFK!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/markvslaughter/status/1606831216166334465?s=46&t=Wlpv91L8QkM58iBwlSA7eg

Edited December 25, 2022 by Big Turk

[Billznut]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

Holy crap!!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/markvslaughter/status/1606831216166334465?s=46&t=Wlpv91L8QkM58iBwlSA7eg

I’ve always wondered what if a team plane crashed. I believe Marshall’s is the last time that happened to a football team?  Can’t even imagine if an NFL team or any professional or college team plane crashed and lost everyone aboard. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

Good thing is that it is primetime, and we all know how primetime Josh usually looks like. And I think that everything what happened this season just made team mentally tough, we beat Bengals and get bye we deserve.

 

Do you have the numbers as to how he plays in primetime games to this date? I really would like to know.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Remember, the Bengals only beat the Bucs because they turned the ball over on 4 straight possessions. They are not actually playing all that well right now, but just like in the playoffs last year they are getting extremely lucky. If Stevenson doesn’t fumble today they would have lost. The Bills have to get pressure with four and get some sacks on Burrow. Yes, Chase and Higgins will make plays but their secondary gives up plays and the weather should be good. I have watched at least part of every Bengals game this year and I really like the Bills chances.

 

I think the consensus of football fans and experts have the Bills, KC, and Cinci as their top 3 teams in the AFC. It's debatable as to what order you place each team.

 

I think you are looking at the Cinci team through your Bills goggles. Cinci is absolutely a very good team. Very dangerous weapons, experienced, and a big time QB. 

 

All 3 teams have flaws. I'm pretty sure Cinci fans like their chances at home. 

[BigAl2526]

6 hours ago, cd1 said:

Only if the Bills bring their A Game and they don't seem to remember where they put their "A Game" (for safe keeping?).

 

Sure glad we won the division but...

I will pick the Bills to win, but you're definitely right about needing their A-Game to come back to life.  I think it will help that they will be playing in much warmer temperatures in Cincinnati

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So they think Bengals win since as home team we get 3 points.

Don’t we play in Cincinnati?

[zow2]

Bills are a very good road team.  They seem to play more disciplined defense on the road too. Maybe because they are not overly amped up and too aggressive.  I dunno.  But i like their chances at Cincinnati. 

[SinatraSinger]

This is close to where I thought it would be.  After the Bills won and the Bengals basically got lucky, I thought that if the game was on a neutral field the Bills would be favored by 5, since it is in Cincinnati and usually home field is worth 3 points I figured the line would open at 2.  Ii guess 1.5 is close.

 

I see that Caesars has the game at Bills minus 1, draft kings has the Bills at minus 1.5, Fanduel has the Bills at minus 2.5 and Bet365 has the Bills at minus 1.5 

[WideNine]

5 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

I'm always curious about what people mean by a complete game.  A game with no mistakes?  Well that happens once in a blue moon.  Cincy is tough but not some historic juggernaut.  Maybe we'll turn the ball over to them and then they'll cough it up right back.  You just need more points at the end of 60 minutes.

 

 

It is not a big mystery, McD talks about it all the time.

 

Complimentary football in all 3 phases (offense, defense, and special teams) for 60 minutes.

 

That is different than saying mistake free, but limiting execution mistakes will help each phase have a strong complimentary game.

 

We do that, there are few teams that hang with us.

 

Looking forward to the Bengals game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sestak4ever]

If we can successfully keep running the ball, that will change opposing defensive strategies against us. It will be up to Dorsey how we call each game to best take advantage of our abilities. If done properly it could be a nightmare for our opponents. We just need to remain patient offensively. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The line was Bills -1.5 for a few days now before today's games. Nothing has really changed. I placed a week 17 Chiefs ML and Bengals +1.5 parlay earlier in the week. I do suspect the line could move to Bills -1 or even a pick 'em by the time the game comes around.

[Buffalo03]

6 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

A win next week will not lock up the number 1 seed, KC is still lurking. If they win out and we lose one, it's theirs.

A win next week and a KC loss will guarantee us the 1 seed. Because even if the Chiefs won week 18 and we lost, our records would be tied with us having the head to head. I don't see the Chiefs losing but if they do, we can go into Monday just needing that win to clinch the 1 seed

[Shortchaz]

Have to eliminate turnovers from here on out and start creating some. 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Shortchaz

[LeGOATski]

8 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I don’t know man.  They went to the SB last year and are on a 7 game win streak right now .  Trying to rank the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs is really hard.

Yeah, I use the DVOA ranking as a gauge on who's truly playing the best at any given time. Right now it's

 

Bills

Chiefs

Bengals

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular?check_logged_in=1

[Ray Stonada]

Current projected high of 59 degrees Monday in Cincy!!
 

Only 30% chance of rain.

 

The passing attack is back… 

[oldmanfan]

7 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Don’t we play in Cincinnati?

Yeah. I messed up.

[unclepete]

15 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So they think Bengals win since as home team we get 3 points.

No they think the we’re better. Even after the 3 pts were still favored. Will be a tough game 

[Casey D]

13 hours ago, cd1 said:

At some point SOON the Bills are going to NEED Josh Allen to get his head back in the game.

 

It is ridiculous to think the Bills will just coast to a Super Bowl Win just because we have Josh Allen on our team.

 

These errant throws over the heads of receivers or ending in interceptions are going bite the Bills in the ass when facing more formidable opponents.

 

 

Did you watch the Miami game, or do you have short term memory loss issues?

[JerseyBills]

Can't wait

A W and we have 3 straight home games.  And players staff can set up shop in WNY for a month and get to the SB

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Can't wait

A W and we have 3 straight home games.  And players staff can set up shop in WNY for a month and get to the SB

 

As long as we win and then take care of the Pats in Week 17. You may think that's a foregone conclusion but the Pats would probably like nothing more than to keep us from the 1 seed and will likely be playing hard. I just don't think it will matter.

[JerseyBills]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

As long as we win and then take care of the Pats in Week 17. You may think that's a foregone conclusion but the Pats would probably like nothing more than to keep us from the 1 seed and will likely be playing hard. I just don't think it will matter.

Absolutely no layup. Even if they're out of the playoffs, they'll bring everything they have,  completely open the play book. Definitely no gimmie 

[atlbillsfan1975]

14 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Bills were 1.5 favorites even before the two played today.

 

It’s imperative we beat CIN next week and lock up the 1 seed, because it’d all but ensure KC and CIN have to face off while the Bills get the 4 or 5 seed in the divisional round. 

This. The biggest benefit for being the 1 seed is not having to beat both KC and Cincinnati 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

This is where we’ll miss Von Miller I’m afraid.

[strive_for_five_guy]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

As long as we win and then take care of the Pats in Week 17. You may think that's a foregone conclusion but the Pats would probably like nothing more than to keep us from the 1 seed and will likely be playing hard. I just don't think it will matter.

His statement about 3 straight home games is accurate.  We win, we at least lock up the two seed, which guarantees at least 1st and 2nd round of playoffs at home.  But would def be better to up that to the one seed, and just skip 1st round altogether.

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

His statement about 3 straight home games is accurate.  We win, we at least lock up the two seed, which guarantees at least 1st and 2nd round of playoffs at home.  But would def be better to up that to the one seed, and just skip 1st round altogether.

 

Oh...yeah that is right. Forgot we have no chance of having to play a higher seed in that situation.

[BearNorth]

Key matchups

 

Tre White vs. Chase

Jackson, Johnson, Elam vs. Higgins & Boyd

 

Milano vs. Mixon

 

Pass Rush getting to Burrow, Cinci's O-line is pedestrian, and Collins may be out.

Can Groot have a TJ Watt type of day, esp if he lines up against a backup LT?

 

Allen needs to eliminate the mistakes, and Dorsey needs to scheme against Cinci's meh corners.

 

 

 

[mannc]

19 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

On the road?  Bengals hotter than we are, arguably.

I'd have the spread the other way around, but I don't gamble.

 

 

Vegas has loved the Bills all year…their record vs the spread is well below .500 despite being 12-3

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Vegas has loved the Bills all year…their record vs the spread is well below .500 despite being 12-3

7-8 is not "well below .500"