Week 6: Bills at CHIEFS 10/16 4:25pm

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

 

I mean you have pretty much the same post every week, every season where you have a hard time seeing the Bills beat anyone so...

[cba fan]

18 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

And yet it happened .. just a season ago. The Bills were surely a lock for the #1 seed because they won a game in October… until they weren’t. It’s a big game, but far from the last word on playoff seeding for the 2022 season. 

ok, but if Bills lose Sunday then KC would need to lose two more games than Bills the rest of the way for Bills to get home field back. Not likely.

 

A Bills win is not a lock for home field, but a loss is a nail in coffin. This is big to have chance at home field.

17 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Can Arrowhead Stadium be referred to as “The Shiv” then?

and if FG kicker is up. It's "The Shank"

Edited October 11, 2022 by cba fan

[Big Turk]

One thing to note...According to DVOA future schedules, KC has the 6th hardest one in the NFL while Buffalo has the 21st hardest one.

 

Philly may finish with the best record in football, their schedule is the easiest in the NFL from now til the end of the year.

 

 

[Process]

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I mean you have pretty much the same post every week, every season where you have a hard time seeing the Bills beat anyone so...

Stop responding 

[BillsBy50]

Only 2 of Pat’s 15 TD are over 10 yard plays. What a batshit stat!! Sell out for the short passes, ESP if Poyer is playing. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, cba fan said:

ok, but if Bills lose Sunday then KC would need to lose two more games than Bills the rest of the way for Bills to get home field back. Not likely.

 

A Bills win is not a lock for home field, but a loss is a nail in coffin. This is big to have chance at home field.

and if FG kicker is up. It's "The Shank"

 

And why, exactly, does a win not make us a home field lock, but a loss is a "nail in coffin"?

 

Whoever wins is 1.5 games up.  That's it.  There are exactly zero teams (after KC) that I do not think we can steamroll.  

 

It may take running the table out of the bye week, but I also think Buffalo can absolutely do it.  

 

Conversely, if we beat KC, I also believe KC can do the same.  

 

Which is why BUF/KC are on another level from everyone else.  Buffalo, mainly due to talent - Most talented team in the league in both top heavy talent and depth.  KC, talent yes, but I think with them - there's a level of mystique.  

[Inigo Montoya]

This is a big game for the Bills.  The Head-to-Head tie break might very well decide if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Orchard Park or Arrowhead.  Don't think the Bills front office doesn't know it.  I wonder if the Bills / Dorsey have been keeping a lot of their dynamic plays close to the vest so far like jet sweeps,  pre-snap motion, and heavy involvement of the TEs in the game under wraps for maximum effect this week. 

 

I sure hope so.

 

 

 NFL Tiebreaker Rules for Division Titles

1. Head-to-head record

2. Record against divisional opponents

3. Record against all common opponents

4. Record against conference opponents

5. Strength of victory (combined record of defeated opponents)

6. Strength of schedule (combined record of all opponents)

7. Combined rankings in points scored and points allowed among conference teams

8. Combined rankings in points scored and points allowed among all teams

9. Scoring differential against common opponents

10. Scoring differential against all opponents

11. Touchdown differential against all opponents

12. Coin toss

[co_springs_billsfan]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Cause it is Cowboys/ Eagles and ironically that is just as big a game now as this one

Yeah, but before the season started when this schedule was created with the hype of that Bills/Chiefs playoff game...  I think someone said CBS can protect games at times and they probably prioritized protecting this one.

[DD4Bills]

Not a fan of the Chiefs in general, but gotta admit this was pretty funny:

https://twitter.com/SkyyHighTy/status/1579689219035123713?s=20&t=1U_Dly6f3d3GrrbTLk90jw

 

 

[Rico]

37 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I dont think its "dont blitz Mahomes."  I've seen quite a few blitzes be effective against him this year.  I think its pick and choose the right moments to blitz him and make sure its a free runner that gets home.  Even if its not a sack it has to get there fast enough that he throws the ball away.

It’s hit Mahomes. Smack the Rat and win going away.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

1 minute ago, DD4Bills said:

Not a fan of the Chiefs in general, but gotta admit this was pretty funny:

https://twitter.com/SkyyHighTy/status/1579689219035123713?s=20&t=1U_Dly6f3d3GrrbTLk90jw

 

 

 

[DD4Bills]

1 minute ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

 

Thank you! Couldn't figure out how to properly embed it.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

this is pure BS. the Bills average a full 60 more yards of offense per game and allow 13 less points per game on defense. All with a schedule thats been on par with the chiefs. while the chiefs have been barely escaping close games with wins and lost to an awful colts squad. take this crap outta here. Going into arrowhead and taking a win is always a tall task and the bills may very well lose because the Chiefs are a dang good team, but you're talking like a fool. 

dudes talking out his rear end.... generally par for the course with him by this point in the year.

Please don’t feed

the Troll

[Big Turk]

Not surprising to see Chris Jones as the top DT for pass rush win rate...but look at who is 4th!  Da'Quan Jones is much more than just a run stuffer!

 

Von Miller slightly behind Parsons and 2nd in Pass Rush Win rate for edge rushers 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34536376/2022-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

40 minutes ago, cba fan said:

ok, but if Bills lose Sunday then KC would need to lose two more games than Bills the rest of the way for Bills to get home field back. Not likely.

 

A Bills win is not a lock for home field, but a loss is a nail in coffin. This is big to have chance at home field.

and if FG kicker is up. It's "The Shank"

 

Not really.  Chiefs play the 6th hardest future schedule in terms of DVOA in the NFL.  Bills are 21st.

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Not really.  Chiefs play the 6th hardest future schedule in terms of DVOA in the NFL.  Bills are 21st.

link to this, please?

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

For sure...going on 4th down is almost going to be expected in this game, maybe even from your own side of the field, which we see happening more and more now even early in games.

I wonder if some of that decision has to do with the style of defense a team plays. Say a team plays more of a "bend but don't break" style of D, the head coach might not view giving the opposing team the ball at midfield as that big of a deal. A HC may choose to bet his D can keep the opposing offense out of the end-zone. 

[ColoradoBills]

29 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This is a big game for the Bills.  The Head-to-Head tie break might very well decide if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Orchard Park or Arrowhead.  Don't think the Bills front office doesn't know it.  I wonder if the Bills / Dorsey have been keeping a lot of their dynamic plays close to the vest so far like jet sweeps,  pre-snap motion, and heavy involvement of the TEs in the game under wraps for maximum effect this week. 

 

I sure hope so.

 

 

 NFL Tiebreaker Rules for Division Titles

1. Head-to-head record

2. Record against divisional opponents

3. Record against all common opponents

4. Record against conference opponents

5. Strength of victory (combined record of defeated opponents)

6. Strength of schedule (combined record of all opponents)

7. Combined rankings in points scored and points allowed among conference teams

8. Combined rankings in points scored and points allowed among all teams

9. Scoring differential against common opponents

10. Scoring differential against all opponents

11. Touchdown differential against all opponents

12. Coin toss

 

You are using the Division Title rules.

Home Field advantage uses the Wildcard Rules.  Head-to-Head may not be applicable if 3 teams are tied.

 

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

link to this, please?

 

Check future schedule column

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular

[Warcodered]

 

[Plano]

Bills by 30.

 

book it 

[TBBills]

This will probably be a super easy game for the Bills.

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

I do like Cowherd but he also stated that Allen hasn't proven he can comeback from more than 10 or win a close game.

Then brought up when they face teams like Ravens and Chiefs...those games will be close.

 

 

[boyst]

31 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Check future schedule column

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular

is this premium content stuff?

[eball]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

 

Oh for crissake man, either come out and admit you're a damn troll or GTFOOH.

 

[colin]

i still think we are the best team in the nfl, even w what we have shown in terms of injuries.

 

my biggest concern, and it's why we lost the fish game and why the baltimore game was so disgusting to start (and we saw it in our other 3 blow out wins, it just didn't matter) is that we are way way too sloppy w the football.  the fumbles, and at least a few of josh's pics have been bad decisions.  he's not forcing it, because we've seen it in games where we are in total control (although he was forcing it vs miami near the end), but the one big thing we can improve on is taking care of the football.

 

our total pursuit of big plays on o, and our dedication to stopping them on d i think sets us up to beat anyone, and to come back or control in any game, but we can't gift wrap points for the opponents.

 

i think we will win this going away, but my heart will be up around my throat for a lot of it!

[Livinginthepast]

You have to remember that despite the mistakes in that game in January, the Bills had KC beat . 99/100 times they win the game at that stage but for the colossal coaching stupidity. That puts us at 2 wins  and 2 losses VS the Chiefs with Mahomes. We dominated the game in the game in October last year as well.  The previous playoff game in January 2001 and the weak loss at home are hopefully a distant memory and the other plus is that Hill is no longer there. If our defense can at least contain Kelcey and stop Mahomes from breaking loose of pressure, we have an excellent chance of winning this game. 

[NickelCity]

I think the performance of our offensive line against their defensive line is going to be pivotal in this game.

[LABILLBACKER]

24 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I do like Cowherd but he also stated that Allen hasn't proven he can comeback from more than 10 or win a close game.

Then brought up when they face teams like Ravens and Chiefs...those games will be close.

 

 

I too like Cowheard and he's right. He's a huge Allen fan but he rightfully identifies the Bills biggest flaw in closing out close games. Our run game has yet to be established and we ask JA to do 95% of the heavy lifting. It's just not sustainable. Especially in the playoffs. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

20 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The so called unstoppable AFCW is now looking like garbage. The Broncos & Raiders both blow and who knows when Herbert will be 100%.  I really thought these 4 would cannibalize each other. 

The only team in that division that blows is the Broncos.

 

Raiders are one of the best 1-4 teams you’ll ever see. They have likely dug themselves too deep of a hole to make the playoffs but they’ve been competitive in every game this year.

 

They’ve even held 20 point and 17 point leads in games and somehow found a way to lose.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I too like Cowheard and he's right. He's a huge Allen fan but he rightfully identifies the Bills biggest flaw in closing out close games. Our run game has yet to be established and we ask JA to do 95% of the heavy lifting. It's just not sustainable. Especially in the playoffs. 

 

If Allen continues his playoff level production, it can be sustainable.  His postseason stats are on a different planet.

[Sestak4ever]

15 minutes ago, colin said:

i still think we are the best team in the nfl, even w what we have shown in terms of injuries.

 

my biggest concern, and it's why we lost the fish game and why the baltimore game was so disgusting to start (and we saw it in our other 3 blow out wins, it just didn't matter) is that we are way way too sloppy w the football.  the fumbles, and at least a few of josh's pics have been bad decisions.  he's not forcing it, because we've seen it in games where we are in total control (although he was forcing it vs miami near the end), but the one big thing we can improve on is taking care of the football.

 

our total pursuit of big plays on o, and our dedication to stopping them on d i think sets us up to beat anyone, and to come back or control in any game, but we can't gift wrap points for the opponents.

 

i think we will win this going away, but my heart will be up around my throat for a lot of it!

I agree that we have turned the ball over way too many times so far this year. If we play mistake free football we should win this game. I believe the difference will be our defense, especially if the Chief’s line doesn’t get away with the egregious holding like they did last night.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Chiefs are certainly a threat.  One of the few that can keep up with the Bills offense.  Kelce is the best TE in game.  I think their offensive system itself is an advantage.  Their offense has an answer for everything.  Sometimes QBs get confused by defenses.  I think that the Chiefs can do so much that defenses can get confused by their offense.  Once Reid figures out how the defense attacks, he is very good at calling plays to counter it.

This game is truly a toss up for me. So many factors and variables are in play many known and unknown. I think it comes down to poise, execution, and which QB is more spectacular. We can analyse the players, critique the lines, secondary, pass rush, etc... Of course you have to. It's about who executes better. I think on paper the Bills match up well and have the more talented players. This is a great test for both teams. No doubt every NFL fan will be watching the game. I'm pumped just thinking about it. A loss will ruin my Sunday and I will have a hard time sleeping. A victory and I'll be sleeping like a baby. Either way the Bills are in good shape at 5-1 or 4-2. I just dread having to go to KC in Jan. for a playoff game in KC. I hate the fan noise the Bills have to deal with! Let's go Buffalo!!!

Edited October 11, 2022 by newcam2012

[billsrul120]

32 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I too like Cowheard and he's right. He's a huge Allen fan but he rightfully identifies the Bills biggest flaw in closing out close games. Our run game has yet to be established and we ask JA to do 95% of the heavy lifting. It's just not sustainable. Especially in the playoffs. 

What would Cowherd be saying if the Chiefs lost last night though?

 

Mahomes had a chance to close out the Raiders with the ball and couldn't convert a 3rd and short/medium.  The Raiders got the ball back with roughly 2 minutes and couldn't into fg range and I'm supposed to believe what Mahomes made that happen from the sideline?

 

He either isn't watching or is trolling but this idea that Mahomes has magic and Allen somehow doesn't is ridiculous. 

[Success]

It goes without saying, but man do I hate that we always face these guys at their place.

 

Getting homefield in the playoffs has never been more important.  This game on Sunday & getting the advantage w/ the head-to-head is huge.

 

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, cba fan said:

 

this is not baseball where they denote standings differences by half games.

NFL denotes full games only. Buf/KC winner has tiebreaker so it is effectively two games lead.

 

It's not a 2 game lead for either team, because - most likely - if the team with the 2 game lead loses the two game lead, it means the other team is ahead of them.

 

It's 1.5 games... which means 1 game plus the tie-breaker. 

[GottaRun]

Realistically both teams are going to make mistakes at some point during this game, and I don't think we need mistake free football to beat this years version of the KC Chiefs.  The Raiders would have beaten them last night if their two receivers didn't end up running into each other on the final play.

 

The hype for this game is off the charts based on last years play off game, I don't see this game living up to the hype, Bills win and go 5-1 into the bye.

[SCBills]

19 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

What would Cowherd be saying if the Chiefs lost last night though?

 

Mahomes had a chance to close out the Raiders with the ball and couldn't convert a 3rd and short/medium.  The Raiders got the ball back with roughly 2 minutes and couldn't into fg range and I'm supposed to believe what Mahomes made that happen from the sideline?

 

He either isn't watching or is trolling but this idea that Mahomes has magic and Allen somehow doesn't is ridiculous. 

 

This is a prime example of why it's the Bills 2021 Defense/Coaches, that are the sole reason anyone can make the argument that Mahomes is better than Allen.  

 

It has nothing to do with Allen.  He won that game.  Defense/Coaching gave it back.  

 

Similarly, Chiefs Defense and Adams not securing the catch are why Mahomes gets credit for the close win last night.  

 

Allen has just been let down far more often by his coaches/defense in 4 years, than Mahomes has in 5. 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by SCBills

[Low Positive]

17 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

What would Cowherd be saying if the Chiefs lost last night though?

 

Mahomes had a chance to close out the Raiders with the ball and couldn't convert a 3rd and short/medium.  The Raiders got the ball back with roughly 2 minutes and couldn't into fg range and I'm supposed to believe what Mahomes made that happen from the sideline?

 

He either isn't watching or is trolling but this idea that Mahomes has magic and Allen somehow doesn't is ridiculous. 

Exactly. The Chiefs tried to run and screen pass their way to closing out the game and failed. They got one first down on a 8 yard screen and then an 8 yard run. Then on 1st and 10, they completed a 7 yard screen. They then had a run for no gain and a deep incomplete pass. They then punted on 4th and 3 from the Raider 47. That was the Mahomes magic to end the game last night.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

This will probably be a super easy game for the Bills.

Hopefully similar to the Patriots playoff game.  Man it was great to just sit there and laugh for 2 1/2 hours.

[Scott7975]

55 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

This game is truly a toss up for me. So many factors and variables are in play many known and unknown. I think it comes down to poise, execution, and which QB is more spectacular. We can analyse the players, critique the lines, secondary, pass rush, etc... Of course you have to. It's about who executes better. I think on paper the Bills match up well and have the more talented players. This is a great test for both teams. No doubt every NFL fan will be watching the game. I'm pumped just thinking about it. A loss will ruin my Sunday and I will have a hard time sleeping. A victory and I'll be sleeping like a baby. Either way the Bills are in good shape at 5-1 or 4-2. I just dread having to go to KC in Jan. for a playoff game in KC. I hate the fan noise the Bills have to deal with! Let's go Buffalo!!!

 

This is why they play the game 😃