Athletic article forecasting our cap casualties

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’d be surprised as Beane stated in his End Presser they pretty much did that last year and are stuck with those results -or words to that effect.

Yes, that's what he said.

 

Things have a tendency to change a month or two later.

[thenorthremembers]

Morse would be a big surprise for me.  Seems more like a restructure and extend guy to me.  Is he elite, probably not.  But for the cap you have to eat and then the money you have to spend to find an as good or better replacment you probably end up costing yourself cap space you need to hold onto.

 

Hes a fine center, is pretty available in terms of health and really showed out during the playoffs. 

Edited February 4, 2022 by thenorthremembers

[Nitro]

Keep D Williams.   Klein and Matakevich are replaceable through FA signings.   Haack is good as gone.   Ford, Star and Feliciano have pluses and minuses.  I see Star and Feliciano as gone.  Defense did well without Star and Feliciano was replaced by Ike and Bates by seasons end.  Ford, if they do not want him, will be cut.  No one is going to trade for a second stringer who has shown no improvement.  

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, Wizard said:

I would be okay with all of these guys gone.

 

Beasley, Williams, and Morse have value. The question is their price and the depth of team and needs.

 

If cutting these players gets us Bates and Phillips and the possibility of resigning McKenzie/Wallace and 1-2 upgrades at any of the following areas: OG/ 3rd WR/2nd RB/2nd CB/Big DT/Upgraded Edge, then sign me up.

 

 

 

Why Wallace? When Dane was thrust into the #2 CB role when Tre got hurt I felt he was as good as Levi. That said I'd still look to improve the position with a 1st or 2nd round pick. 

[sullim4]

I suspect we draft a punter late given the success Bass has had as a homegrown specialist… Haack is a goner.

 

With the dead cap hit, Star stays put. Jerry probably retires or leaves as a FA.

 

My guess is that OL, DL, and the secondary are the targets in FA and the draft. Hyde and Poyer are getting up there in age and they need to develop the next generation while they can still go. They love Edmunds for some reason so I suspect they stay out with their LBs as is.

[The Jokeman]

7 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Keep D Williams.   Klein and Matakevich are replaceable through FA signings.   Haack is good as gone.   Ford, Star and Feliciano have pluses and minuses.  I see Star and Feliciano as gone.  Defense did well without Star and Feliciano was replaced by Ike and Bates by seasons end.  Ford, if they do not want him, will be cut.  No one is going to trade for a second stringer who has shown no improvement.  

You might be able to move Ford and a 7th rounder for a 6th rounder on draft day.

[Big Blitz]

Scherff and Tomlinson are the only guards I see worth signing.  And someone is going to out bid us.  Spain is a UFA lol.  Cutting Williams makes no sense unless they know who they want in the UFA pool.  

 

I expect the oline to be Dawkins Brown Morse and no clue what they'll do from there.

 

Bates will be here but there is going to be competition.  

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, sullim4 said:

I suspect we draft a punter late given the success Bass has had as a homegrown specialist… Haack is a goner.

 

With the dead cap hit, Star stays put. Jerry probably retires or leaves as a FA.

 

My guess is that OL, DL, and the secondary are the targets in FA and the draft. Hyde and Poyer are getting up there in age and they need to develop the next generation while they can still go. They love Edmunds for some reason so I suspect they stay out with their LBs as is.

I think we could look for a Klein eventual Edmunds replacement in this year's draft if a guy we like falls to us. As I can't see us giving Edmunds big time money with Josh's big salary starting in 2024.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

If he’s 80% dead cap esp at those numbers how is athletic saying he’s cut? 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

I agree.  Williams is not going anywhere.  They also need continuity on this line.  I expect them to draft TWO Guards/Center this year.

[BringBackFergy]

Please tell us it’s Joe B. (rather than “The Athletic”) in the title so we skip over this nonsense. Oh wait…he’s a “draft guru”? I’d put @GunnerBill or @Beerball against Joe B. any day. 

[Thurman#1]

The problem with cutting

26 minutes ago, BringBackFergy said:

Please tell us it’s Joe B. (rather than “The Athletic”) in the title so we skip over this nonsense. Oh wait…he’s a “draft guru”? I’d put @GunnerBill or @Beerball against Joe B. any day. 

  Joe B is smart and he gets what the Bills will do right a lot in terms of offseason moves.

 

But ad hominem away if you must. Better to attack the arguments, though, I'd think, myself.

 

 

 

The problem with cutting these guys is that many to most would have to be replaced. The exceptions would be Ford, who so far hasn't been good enough to worry about replacing and Feliciano who appears to have effectively been replaced by Bates.

 

But if you cut Haack, he needs to be replaced. Klein is our best guy as a 3rd LB when teams put in an extra OL. He's very good at that, a thumper. I don't see anyone on the roster who could just step into that role. If you cut McKenzie you badly need another slot. Beasley has lost a lot of effectiveness against man-to-man. He used to be really good at any defense, and that just isn't the same at this point. McKenzie was good against man-to-man but hasn't really shown a lot against zone. Ideally we would draft/acquire a young slot guy who can be effective against both types of coverage, but if we cut McKenzie it becomes a necessity. Matakevich could go but he'd have to be replaced also. Could we maybe do it cheaper? I'd guess yes, but not all of his money will become available, IMO.

 

Williams in particular would have to be replaced. The top five OLs really came together very late with him at RG. They played well. I'd guess that they absolutely are going to bring in a guard or two whether they keep him or not, but if he goes it would again seem a necessity. They don't have a guy who can seamlessly replace him unless we see a miracle turnaround from Ford or something wild like that.

 

Star has always very effectively filled the space eater role, he's the best on the team, and it's a role they need filled in the McDermott defense. Phillips has really stepped up, but he's a bit more of a penetrator rather than a guy who eats blocks, and they want the LBs to be able to flow freely, which really hasn't happened the last couple of years especially in all the games Star has been out. There are major concerns with availability with Star, but if we cut him, I'd expect us to draft a mountain of a man to step into that role, as we need two one-techs and only really have one. I don't think they feel Zimmer fits that role as well as they'd like, though he does fit as a role player.

 

I could see all of them going, and Beasley besides. But a pretty decent portion of the money freed up ($24M?) would go to replacements, and / or some draft picks as well.

 

 

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Williams really turned the season around and became solid at guard. 

 

 

He really did.

 

The problem is that for an effective tackle his salary is reasonable. Less for an effective guard. I would guess that they'd be much more willing to keep him if he negotiates downwards a bit.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Scherff and Tomlinson are the only guards I see worth signing.  And someone is going to out bid us.  Spain is a UFA lol.  Cutting Williams makes no sense unless they know who they want in the UFA pool.  

 

I expect the oline to be Dawkins Brown Morse and no clue what they'll do from there.

 

Bates will be here but there is going to be competition.  

 

Norwell as well.  But they'll command well into the teens of millions per year.  No go for the Bills.

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Oh and also, this little nugget

 

 

But in all the turnover came a small clue about what to expect from the Bills’ offseason.

 

When fielding questions at his introductory news conference, Schoen alluded to what he was doing for the Bills leading up to getting hired by the Giants.

 

“I was working towards free agency,” he said. “We were gonna have some money over there.”

 

 

we're cutting players and freeing up money.

or restructure some guys 

[Dkollidas]

I see them having money without crazy cuts. Extensions for guys like Diggs, Morse, Poyer, & Edmunds can save $15-$20M of cap space. 
 

If they draft a star replacement, letting him retire post June 1st would save over $6.5M in cap space. 
 

Then trade or cut Ford, Klein and Matakevich. Another $10M.

 

I’ve just created $30M-$35M in cap space without getting rid of any good players. 

[Logic]

Man…

 

I know I’m repeating myself, and that I’m not the only one who feels this way, but…

 

GOD I wish we had drafted Creed Humphrey instead of Boogie Basham. It would’ve improved our o-line this past season and also allowed us to cut Morse this offseason and save a ton of money. 
 

He’s already a top three center in the NFL. Unless Basham becomes a legitimate pass rusher — more than just a 4 sacks per year rotational guy — taking him over a plug-and-play blue chip center was just an awful decision.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

I agree, I think we retain Klein and Williams. Daryl didn't have the best season but he did settle down at RG toward the end.  I think the decision on either Beas or Kittrick will be the most compelling story in the offseason. Ford, Feliciano,  Star and Haack are gone.

[Freddie's Dead]

I don't see Matakevich and Klein going anywhere.  The rest I'm fine with.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree, I think we retain Klein and Williams. Daryl didn't have the best season but he did settle down at RG toward the end.  I think the decision on either Beas or Kittrick will be the most compelling story in the offseason. Ford, Feliciano,  Star and Haack are gone.

The dead cap hit for letting go Ford and Star are monstrous.   You save about 1.5M in cap for each of these players and you will have to spend more than that to get the save average skill sets.   We are going to retain them for upcoming season.  

[smuvtalker]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think the other poster's perspective on it is the way the Bills will approach it, though.

 

It's only a savings of $1.5 million to cut him.  Star would be a fantastic backup/rotational DT.  He was still pretty good on the field this year.  

And to further support your comment, IIRC, his level of play went up a notch late in the season, particularly the 2nd Pats game as well as in the playoffs.  I was all for letting him go while he missed game after game, but when he was back on the field, he was, IMO, a difference maker on the line (and wasn't too shabby getting after the QB)

[John from Riverside]

I think it’s time for cole to go keep Mackenzie

[Beerball]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

But ad hominem away if you must. 

Arithmetic is not one of @BringBackFergy better subjects.

[Coach Tuesday]

Man I love Beaners but a dead cap hit for a punter, smh at some of the things this GM does in free agency…

[colin]

so, assuming we keep morse for 1 more year, i see us ditching mongo and williams, drafting a guard who can also play C, perhaps 2 guards.  i can also see wallace walking and they draft a CB in the 1st or 2nd.  i feel like for whatever faults, our FO knows cbs and how to coach them up like no one's business.

 

for next season we need a new G and CB as above, for the future we need someone who can play C.  potentially for both, we need a slot WR, a TE2, and would be nice to have an RB w speed.  We also need a punter but given how often we punt, i'd say any just ok guy will do.

 

im getting ahead of myself, but i think we move some contracts around and sign chandler jones and possibly someone on O, and fill in our JAGS in the draft and maybe the odd cheap FA.

 

the one upside of paying meh players who don't start or barely play so much is we can move money around and when their contracts are off the books the young guys behind them can fill in the spots w no drop off.

 

looking back, mongo and williams were bad resignings.  mongo was awful, and a pine rider, williams was bad at right tackle when he had to play it (vs a raw raw rookie, which is kinda shocking) and played RG decently by the end of the season, but net net is not even an average starting RG in the NFL at 10mm.  odd guy, was great for the jets one year, fell apart.  was great for us one year, did the same.  laziness/motivation issue i bet.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

Don’t be shocked if we keep Ford and give him one more chance under a new oline coach since we’ve seen it over and over where a player is terrible under one coaching staff and excels under another. 

[JMF2006]

I will let our GM be the GM

 

I trust his decisions

[Doc]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

The dead cap hit for letting go Ford and Star are monstrous.   You save about 1.5M in cap for each of these players and you will have to spend more than that to get the save average skill sets.   We are going to retain them for upcoming season.  

 

Not him.  Did you mean someone else?

[CaptnCoke11]

39 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

I will let our GM be the GM

 

I trust his decisions

Like trading one of the best guards in the league for a 5th round pick or trading a 3rd round pick for Kelvin Benjamin? He’s done his share of good things but he’s certainly had his fair share of horrible moves as well. 

[MAJBobby]

Star is a perfect take a paycut and reduce cap number OR get cut and replaced by a Rookie DT. 

[st pete gogolak]

What's the rush to dump Williams?  His cap hit isn't horrible, at a minimum he's a decent starting guard and if Dawkins or Brown get hurt, he can slide to RT.  As bad as the OL was during that mid-season stretch, I wouldn't be disappointed if they rolled with Dawkins - Bates - Morse - Williams - Brown to start 2022.  If they can upgrade, terrific, but it's not the crying need it was at mid-season.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Star is a perfect take a paycut and reduce cap number OR get cut and replaced by a Rookie DT. 

 

He should first be approached about taking a pay cut.  I doubt he accepts one though.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

He should first be approached about taking a pay cut.  I doubt he accepts one though.

If he doesn’t time to move on. Anuko (spelling) or a Rookie DT would replace the production in a smaller contract. 
 

we paid Josh. Time to start removing the bloated contracts on older declining players. 

[Jim Bob]

The other thing that seems like it would make a lot of sense is that the Bills either trade Edmunds or extend him and lower his 2022 cap hit.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 hours ago, artmalibu said:

 

 

Yes, that is my point.  In reality he is only costing 1.5 mil.   I think some are seeing his 9.6 mil cap hit and think cut him.  I would too if there was no dead money.  

 

If

 

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure if they cut him as a post June-1 designation they can split his dead cap over 2 seasons. So possibly factor in an extra 3.5Mish in savings next year for a $5M savings if they can.

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Man I love Beaners but a dead cap hit for a punter, smh at some of the things this GM does in free agency…

700k according to SPOTRAC. Chump change.

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Like trading one of the best guards in the league for a 5th round pick or trading a 3rd round pick for Kelvin Benjamin? He’s done his share of good things but he’s certainly had his fair share of horrible moves as well. 

 

Man let it go Teller wasn't even making the team as the swing guard and is a better run blocker than pass blocker...in case you didn't notice the Browns are run first and the Bills are pass first.

 

KB got fat and lazy then got hobbled by a knee injury or vice versa.

 

I thought he could be a large target with a huge catch radius for Josh.

 

Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things

 

Playoffs 4 of 5 years buys a lot of leeway in my books.

[T master]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/3110889/2022/02/03/forecasting-bills-2022-cap-casualty-candidates-including-mitch-morse-cole-beasley-and-star-lotulelei/

 

Basically the prediction is we keep Morse and Beasley... that's it.

 

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

 

If that were all to hold true, cutting those players would give us just over $24 million in Cap savings.

 

I still wish we would make every effort to resign McKenzie and cut Beasley, who is a $7.6 million Cap hit this coming season.

 

Another one of those articles that you can't read unless you buy a subscription 😢 .

 

I'm not sure if they will let that many get away Beane can be pretty resourceful when it comes to manipulating the cap so i hope some are brought back .

 

If there isn't as much dead cap for Star just because of how well they did when he wasn't available if he has a bigger cap hit than dead money i'm thinking he should be 1 that's gone because for the pay he gets his impact isn't significant and they have others below him that could do as good for a lot less money .

 

Williams, Klien, & Matakevich i wouldn't mind seeing them come back if they can be had Mongo to but at a better price because he is more in the depth player now with others stepping up .

[JohnNord]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/3110889/2022/02/03/forecasting-bills-2022-cap-casualty-candidates-including-mitch-morse-cole-beasley-and-star-lotulelei/

 

Basically the prediction is we keep Morse and Beasley... that's it.

 

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

 

If that were all to hold true, cutting those players would give us just over $24 million in Cap savings.

 

I still wish we would make every effort to resign McKenzie and cut Beasley, who is a $7.6 million Cap hit this coming season.

I don’t know about Beasley.  It would surprise me for coaches and FO to watch his tape and see that he’s lost a step and is less effective versus man.  Bills are likely to see a lot of zone next year.  Do they still keep him?

 

I’d like to keep Darryl Williams, but the problem is he’s playing guard and is paid as a right tackle.  Still if the Bills can find a way to keep him, I wouldn’t mind

6 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

Man let it go Teller wasn't even making the team as the swing guard and is a better run blocker than pass blocker...in case you didn't notice the Browns are run first and the Bills are pass first.

 

KB got fat and lazy then got hobbled by a knee injury or vice versa.

 

I thought he could be a large target with a huge catch radius for Josh.

 

Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things

 

Playoffs 4 of 5 years buys a lot of leeway in my books.

The revisionist history with Teller is so annoying.  He wasn’t the player he became when he was traded.  Should the Bills hung onto him for one more season?  Maybe.  But it’s not as lopsided as it looks in retrospect.  
 

As far as Kelvin Benjamin, the Bills had no one at WR.  They needed to do something and he was the best option.  We all loved the move at the time.  Beane probably paid a little too steep of a price for him.  But it was a seller’s marker and he was going all in to break the playoff streak which he did.   

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

20 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/3110889/2022/02/03/forecasting-bills-2022-cap-casualty-candidates-including-mitch-morse-cole-beasley-and-star-lotulelei/

 

Basically the prediction is we keep Morse and Beasley... that's it.

 

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

 

If that were all to hold true, cutting those players would give us just over $24 million in Cap savings.

 

I still wish we would make every effort to resign McKenzie and cut Beasley, who is a $7.6 million Cap hit this coming season.

 

Read the article, it talked about coaches and Schoen leaving for Giants and then also stated: "one staff member soon following".  Any idea who that might be??

 

Agree would be good to resign McKenzie, but don't think he wants to come back.  Likely the only was would be no one else wants to pay him much, but even then not sure he'd take more here.  Seems he has a gripe with McD, from what is known is legit, but who knows what happened behind the scenes?

[FilthyBeast]

20 hours ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

 

This one is still a head scratcher in terms of Beane restructured his deal.

 

And unless he works some real magic in some sort of trade or restructure again we are almost stuck with a guy who it's clearly time to move on from.

[LABILLBACKER]

17 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I think we could look for a Klein eventual Edmunds replacement in this year's draft if a guy we like falls to us. As I can't see us giving Edmunds big time money with Josh's big salary starting in 2024.

We're never paying Edmunds what he thinks he's worth. This will be his last season in a Bills uniform. I hope we draft a mid round LB and maybe use a 4th on Araiza?

11 hours ago, ganesh said:

The dead cap hit for letting go Ford and Star are monstrous.   You save about 1.5M in cap for each of these players and you will have to spend more than that to get the save average skill sets.   We are going to retain them for upcoming season.  

2 absolutely terrible acquisitions. So we're stuck with them drawing a huge payday as they sit the bench watching Bates & Phillips play.  Wonderful.....

Edited February 4, 2022 by LABILLBACKER