Athletic article forecasting our cap casualties

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’d be surprised as Beane stated in his End Presser they pretty much did that last year and are stuck with those results -or words to that effect.

Yes, that's what he said.

 

Things have a tendency to change a month or two later.

[thenorthremembers]

Morse would be a big surprise for me.  Seems more like a restructure and extend guy to me.  Is he elite, probably not.  But for the cap you have to eat and then the money you have to spend to find an as good or better replacment you probably end up costing yourself cap space you need to hold onto.

 

Hes a fine center, is pretty available in terms of health and really showed out during the playoffs. 

Edited February 4, 2022 by thenorthremembers

[Nitro]

Keep D Williams.   Klein and Matakevich are replaceable through FA signings.   Haack is good as gone.   Ford, Star and Feliciano have pluses and minuses.  I see Star and Feliciano as gone.  Defense did well without Star and Feliciano was replaced by Ike and Bates by seasons end.  Ford, if they do not want him, will be cut.  No one is going to trade for a second stringer who has shown no improvement.  

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, Wizard said:

I would be okay with all of these guys gone.

 

Beasley, Williams, and Morse have value. The question is their price and the depth of team and needs.

 

If cutting these players gets us Bates and Phillips and the possibility of resigning McKenzie/Wallace and 1-2 upgrades at any of the following areas: OG/ 3rd WR/2nd RB/2nd CB/Big DT/Upgraded Edge, then sign me up.

 

 

 

Why Wallace? When Dane was thrust into the #2 CB role when Tre got hurt I felt he was as good as Levi. That said I'd still look to improve the position with a 1st or 2nd round pick. 

[sullim4]

I suspect we draft a punter late given the success Bass has had as a homegrown specialist… Haack is a goner.

 

With the dead cap hit, Star stays put. Jerry probably retires or leaves as a FA.

 

My guess is that OL, DL, and the secondary are the targets in FA and the draft. Hyde and Poyer are getting up there in age and they need to develop the next generation while they can still go. They love Edmunds for some reason so I suspect they stay out with their LBs as is.

[The Jokeman]

7 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Keep D Williams.   Klein and Matakevich are replaceable through FA signings.   Haack is good as gone.   Ford, Star and Feliciano have pluses and minuses.  I see Star and Feliciano as gone.  Defense did well without Star and Feliciano was replaced by Ike and Bates by seasons end.  Ford, if they do not want him, will be cut.  No one is going to trade for a second stringer who has shown no improvement.  

You might be able to move Ford and a 7th rounder for a 6th rounder on draft day.

[Big Blitz]

Scherff and Tomlinson are the only guards I see worth signing.  And someone is going to out bid us.  Spain is a UFA lol.  Cutting Williams makes no sense unless they know who they want in the UFA pool.  

 

I expect the oline to be Dawkins Brown Morse and no clue what they'll do from there.

 

Bates will be here but there is going to be competition.  

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, sullim4 said:

I suspect we draft a punter late given the success Bass has had as a homegrown specialist… Haack is a goner.

 

With the dead cap hit, Star stays put. Jerry probably retires or leaves as a FA.

 

My guess is that OL, DL, and the secondary are the targets in FA and the draft. Hyde and Poyer are getting up there in age and they need to develop the next generation while they can still go. They love Edmunds for some reason so I suspect they stay out with their LBs as is.

I think we could look for a Klein eventual Edmunds replacement in this year's draft if a guy we like falls to us. As I can't see us giving Edmunds big time money with Josh's big salary starting in 2024.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

If he’s 80% dead cap esp at those numbers how is athletic saying he’s cut? 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

I agree.  Williams is not going anywhere.  They also need continuity on this line.  I expect them to draft TWO Guards/Center this year.

[BringBackFergy]

Please tell us it’s Joe B. (rather than “The Athletic”) in the title so we skip over this nonsense. Oh wait…he’s a “draft guru”? I’d put @GunnerBill or @Beerball against Joe B. any day. 

[Thurman#1]

The problem with cutting

26 minutes ago, BringBackFergy said:

Please tell us it’s Joe B. (rather than “The Athletic”) in the title so we skip over this nonsense. Oh wait…he’s a “draft guru”? I’d put @GunnerBill or @Beerball against Joe B. any day. 

  Joe B is smart and he gets what the Bills will do right a lot in terms of offseason moves.

 

But ad hominem away if you must. Better to attack the arguments, though, I'd think, myself.

 

 

 

The problem with cutting these guys is that many to most would have to be replaced. The exceptions would be Ford, who so far hasn't been good enough to worry about replacing and Feliciano who appears to have effectively been replaced by Bates.

 

But if you cut Haack, he needs to be replaced. Klein is our best guy as a 3rd LB when teams put in an extra OL. He's very good at that, a thumper. I don't see anyone on the roster who could just step into that role. If you cut McKenzie you badly need another slot. Beasley has lost a lot of effectiveness against man-to-man. He used to be really good at any defense, and that just isn't the same at this point. McKenzie was good against man-to-man but hasn't really shown a lot against zone. Ideally we would draft/acquire a young slot guy who can be effective against both types of coverage, but if we cut McKenzie it becomes a necessity. Matakevich could go but he'd have to be replaced also. Could we maybe do it cheaper? I'd guess yes, but not all of his money will become available, IMO.

 

Williams in particular would have to be replaced. The top five OLs really came together very late with him at RG. They played well. I'd guess that they absolutely are going to bring in a guard or two whether they keep him or not, but if he goes it would again seem a necessity. They don't have a guy who can seamlessly replace him unless we see a miracle turnaround from Ford or something wild like that.

 

Star has always very effectively filled the space eater role, he's the best on the team, and it's a role they need filled in the McDermott defense. Phillips has really stepped up, but he's a bit more of a penetrator rather than a guy who eats blocks, and they want the LBs to be able to flow freely, which really hasn't happened the last couple of years especially in all the games Star has been out. There are major concerns with availability with Star, but if we cut him, I'd expect us to draft a mountain of a man to step into that role, as we need two one-techs and only really have one. I don't think they feel Zimmer fits that role as well as they'd like, though he does fit as a role player.

 

I could see all of them going, and Beasley besides. But a pretty decent portion of the money freed up ($24M?) would go to replacements, and / or some draft picks as well.

 

 

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Williams really turned the season around and became solid at guard. 

 

 

He really did.

 

The problem is that for an effective tackle his salary is reasonable. Less for an effective guard. I would guess that they'd be much more willing to keep him if he negotiates downwards a bit.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Scherff and Tomlinson are the only guards I see worth signing.  And someone is going to out bid us.  Spain is a UFA lol.  Cutting Williams makes no sense unless they know who they want in the UFA pool.  

 

I expect the oline to be Dawkins Brown Morse and no clue what they'll do from there.

 

Bates will be here but there is going to be competition.  

 

Norwell as well.  But they'll command well into the teens of millions per year.  No go for the Bills.

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Oh and also, this little nugget

 

 

But in all the turnover came a small clue about what to expect from the Bills’ offseason.

 

When fielding questions at his introductory news conference, Schoen alluded to what he was doing for the Bills leading up to getting hired by the Giants.

 

“I was working towards free agency,” he said. “We were gonna have some money over there.”

 

 

we're cutting players and freeing up money.

or restructure some guys 

[Dkollidas]

I see them having money without crazy cuts. Extensions for guys like Diggs, Morse, Poyer, & Edmunds can save $15-$20M of cap space. 
 

If they draft a star replacement, letting him retire post June 1st would save over $6.5M in cap space. 
 

Then trade or cut Ford, Klein and Matakevich. Another $10M.

 

I’ve just created $30M-$35M in cap space without getting rid of any good players. 

[Logic]

Man…

 

I know I’m repeating myself, and that I’m not the only one who feels this way, but…

 

GOD I wish we had drafted Creed Humphrey instead of Boogie Basham. It would’ve improved our o-line this past season and also allowed us to cut Morse this offseason and save a ton of money. 
 

He’s already a top three center in the NFL. Unless Basham becomes a legitimate pass rusher — more than just a 4 sacks per year rotational guy — taking him over a plug-and-play blue chip center was just an awful decision.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

I agree, I think we retain Klein and Williams. Daryl didn't have the best season but he did settle down at RG toward the end.  I think the decision on either Beas or Kittrick will be the most compelling story in the offseason. Ford, Feliciano,  Star and Haack are gone.

[Freddie's Dead]

I don't see Matakevich and Klein going anywhere.  The rest I'm fine with.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I agree, I think we retain Klein and Williams. Daryl didn't have the best season but he did settle down at RG toward the end.  I think the decision on either Beas or Kittrick will be the most compelling story in the offseason. Ford, Feliciano,  Star and Haack are gone.

The dead cap hit for letting go Ford and Star are monstrous.   You save about 1.5M in cap for each of these players and you will have to spend more than that to get the save average skill sets.   We are going to retain them for upcoming season.  

[smuvtalker]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think the other poster's perspective on it is the way the Bills will approach it, though.

 

It's only a savings of $1.5 million to cut him.  Star would be a fantastic backup/rotational DT.  He was still pretty good on the field this year.  

And to further support your comment, IIRC, his level of play went up a notch late in the season, particularly the 2nd Pats game as well as in the playoffs.  I was all for letting him go while he missed game after game, but when he was back on the field, he was, IMO, a difference maker on the line (and wasn't too shabby getting after the QB)