My top 5 keys to winning on SNF

[Allen2Moulds]

(Just my 2 cents as a fan, not an expert by any means.)

 

1. Do a better job against Chris Jones,  and the interior pass rush.  Chris Jones absolutely harrased Josh last year.. Josh was never comfortable in either game. I know they have him at DE this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them kick him back inside for this game. Fingers crossed that Darryl Williams holds up at G. Very confident in rookie Spencer Brown, and relieved to see Cody Ford on the bench.

 

2.  Be and stay aggressive on offense. We played very timid on offense in the AFCCG last year,, it was almost like we were watching a different team. Unless it's the end of half, we need to go for it. No 27yd fgs. Same applies for 4th and short. Josh is unstoppable on QB sneaks, don't get too cute on offense and outsmart yourself in those situations. Field position game means nothing against Mahomes. We'll need to score at least 30 to win, maybe even closer to 40.

 

3. Daboll has to call one of his better games. Besides opening drives, I've been disappointed in Daboll, and how he has called our playoff games and against KC last year. As terrible as KC has been on D this year, Spagnuola is still a top notch DC and is great at divising game plans and confusing QBs. Remember he's the same DC that shutdown the 18-0 (correction) 18-1 Patriots. Best version of Brady and Moss in there Prime.

 

4. Moving on to defense. I'll start with the obvious. We have to find a way to pressure Mahomes. I know Mahomes kills the blitz, but we'll have to try and disguise who we send. Only send 4...ok, but which 4. Occasionally send 5, but pick your spots wisely. I know that Groot has dropped back in coverage a few times for example. Also need dline to use their length to get their hands on a ball or 2. Maybe on a key 3rd/4th down.

 

5. We won't be able to Stop Hill and Kelce, so we kind of have to pick our poison there. I'd say don't let Hill kill you over the top, and live with what Kelce does to you. Bend but don't break, maybe we can force them into a couple of FGs. That's part of what Tampa did in the SB. In the 1st match-up, Hill tourched Tampa, and it was over by halftime. In the SB rematch, they limited Hill, and allowed a bunch of underneath catches to Kelce that didn't hurt them nearly as bad. Of course they also chased him up and down Dale Mabry (main rd behind stadium). 

 

Would love to hear anyone else's opinion.

 

 

[PolishDave]

This belongs in the main thread on this topic.

[nucci]

have more points at the end of the game

[billybrew1]

Daryl Williams And Spencer Brown will have their hands full with the great and powerful Chris Jones but I think we can afford those players help when need be this year.... Either those two working together wiping Jonesout or some TE and RB help depending on where Jones lines up.

The number one thing, more important than anything else of course is will Josh Allen give us his A game or not. And if not, will he at least play well enough for us to win. Maybe Josh's B plus game?

I think our defense is ready to dethrone the chefs and we will make it harder than everyone thinks on Mahomes.....

 

I can conceive a game Sunday night where a lot of Bills fans become convinced Allen is on Mahomes level. It sez here that If Allen gives us his A game we win for certain and Allen looks better than Mahomes.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Re: Chris Jones I thought I heard he was playing outside not inside this year

[Pete]

run all over the Chiefs

[Chandler#81]

Hey! Who turned on the big [LAMP]?
 

[muppy]

I'll add that our OL needs to protect #17 and create running lanes for the RB's

 

Lets see our special teams take one all the way and deflate THEIR fanbase

 

Defense bend but dont break? **ducks*** yeah its a cliche  so bottom line we need to outscore em and keep mahomes on the bench as much as possible

 

m

[Rico]

1. Punch the Rat in the face.

[Brennan Huff]

1. Establish the run game early 

 

2. Get pressure on Mahomes

 

3. Shut Kelce down 

 

We beat Kansas City on Sunday and the road to the Super Bowl will go through Buffalo

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by Brennan Huff
Glitch in the matrix

[gobills404]

I would also add that running the ball a lot AND efficiently would be a huge help. The 8 teams that have beat the chiefs since the start of the 2019 season (not counting their meaningless week 17 loss last year) averaged 33.6 attempts and 166.5 yards (5.0ypc) per game. The chargers game this year is the only outlier (22 attempts for 77 yards) and they only won cause they had a +4 turnover differential.

 

I also agree that stopping Hill is more important than stopping Kelce (Kelce had over 100 yards in each of their last 4 losses).

Edited October 6, 2021 by gobills404

[billsfan_34]

4 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

I would also add that running the ball a lot AND efficiently would be a huge help. The 8 teams that have beat the chiefs since the start of the 2019 season (not counting their meaningless week 17 loss last year) averaged 33.6 attempts and 166.5 yards (5.1 ypc) per game. The chargers game this year is the only outlier (22 attempts for 77 yards) and they only won cause they had a +4 turnover differential.

 

I also agree that stopping Hill is more important than stopping Kelce (Kelce had over 100 yards in each of their last 4 losses).

Stopping Kelce and Hill is much easier when you are controlling the clock. I agree the winning recipe is running the ball and taking shots when there. The Chiefs defense is not very good.

[Solomon Grundy]

I think the Bills should take what KC defense gives them. If it means checking the ball down to the RBs, TEs, then so be it.

Let the front four go to work!! Drop DBs, CBs into coverage.

 

Show run/pass balance. 35/65. Let Moss handout more “business decisions”. Motor continue to hit the holes aggressively. Most importantly, secure the rock!

Edited October 6, 2021 by Solomon Grundy

[Brennan Huff]

Kelce scored 2 TDs in both games against us last year compared to Hill’s 0. We need to stop Kelce

[MJS]

7 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Kelce scored 2 TDs in both games against us last year compared to Hill’s 0. We need to stop Kelce

Sure, but Hill did have 172 yards against us in the playoffs. He was a big factor.

[Jobot]

Issues in the past were as follows.

1- We had to sell out to stop the run.. and that was still not enough.

2- We generated ZERO pass rush.

3- We COULD NOT RUN THE BALL against light boxes.

 

KC not only beat us in the above categories.. but they DOMINATED us in them.  We've improved in all these areas, but by how much? We'll find out this week.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Jobot

[BBills88]

1. Josh Allen has to play against the Chiefs Defense, not Patrick Mahomes. 

 

2. Be smart & AGGRESSIVE on offense. 

 

3. Double Hill & Put Tre White on Kelce

 

4. Gang tackle, try to create turnovers. 

 

5. Do your 1: 11th 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On the run game, when the Bills do go to it, I’d like for them to do it under Center.

 

I don’t want to Singletary running out of shotgun, or Moss getting toss sweeps to the outside, or delayed handoffs.

 

Moss is averaging 4.2 yards, Singletary is at 5.3 yards, trust that and just run straight at the Chiefs.

 

The Bills don’t have enough speed to get to the edges or the offensive line to do that.

[Mat68]

Just like a playoff game.  In the redzone score touchdowns.  Whoever converts better in the redzone usually wins.  Win the middle 8.  Last 4 mins of the first half and start of the second half.  That is where the Chiefs won in January.  
 

Compared to last season Buffalo is healthier compared to both matchups.  The defense is playing much better.   The team is also running the ball better.  Running effectively makes the Bills offense much tougher to stop.  A few more 1 on 1s and bigger plays. 

[BigDingus]

The Chiefs have shown you can pass on them with a lot of success. 

 

I know everyone's talking about running the ball & game management, and yes, we have to be able to run so they can't just do what Pittsburgh did & drop everyone into coverage. But when Jalen Hurts puts up nearly 400 yards & Herbert is dropping 4 TD's on them, you can't forget your own strengths either.

 

We can't just be reactionary, and instead should look to our own strengths & exert pressure on them as well. Easier said than done, but when you have Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabe Davis & Dawson Knox (yes, him too!), can't shy away from what YOU want to do either.

Edited October 6, 2021 by BigDingus

[machine gun kelly]

For me it’s bracket Hill, leave Poyer on Kelce, and allow Edmunds and Milano (if playing) to go sideline to sideline.  
 

Offense, stay will 11 personnel to chip one of the ends, and have Knox now more reliable as a dump off along with Moss.  This should be more of a Moss game.

 

I wouldn’t deviate from what gets you there, and not try and be something you’re not.  Not a fan of the empty sets with this team.  Lastly go for it on 4th and short.  FG’s will not win you the game even if we lose one or two.  Play to win, not to avoid losing.

[78thealltimegreat]

The Chiefs are going to dare the Bills to dump it to the backs they are the key in this game on offense and let’s face it Pat Mahomes is different QB when he doesn’t have a clean pocket…I honestly believe Buffalo isn’t just going to win but they are going to dominate this game 

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

(

 

2.  Be and stay aggressive on offense. We played very timid on offense in the AFCCG last year,, it was almost like we were watching a different team. Unless it's the end of half, we need to go for it. No 27yd fgs.

 

 

 

 

Bills coaches felt so intimidated by the fearsome Houston D that they pulled the Offense off the Red Zone 4 times in a row to kick FG instead.

 

Probably won't work Sunday.

[ganesh]

This game does indeed come down to the Coaching staff and putting the team in the right place to make plays.   Hill and Kelce will get their big plays....but putting pressure on Mahomes will go a long way in stopping too many big plays.  On offense, I agree that the nemesis for last year was the FGs....they needed to be TDs to stay with the big boys.

52 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Bills coaches felt so intimidated by the fearsome Houston D that they pulled the Offense off the Red Zone 4 times in a row to kick FG instead.

 

Probably won't work Sunday.

I think the Bills coaching staff played nervous until they got to 19 points.   After that they felt comfortable and let the dogs out.

[Governor]

I don’t like passing up FG’s. They still matter. 3 or 4 teams lost this week because they went for it on 4th down and shouldn’t have.

 

If the score is 14-6 Chiefs and it’s 4th and 6 on the 27, you kick that FG. Going for it too often and before it’s completely necessary is the definition of playing scared.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Governor

[BillsFan619]

5 hours ago, gobills404 said:

I would also add that running the ball a lot AND efficiently would be a huge help. The 8 teams that have beat the chiefs since the start of the 2019 season (not counting their meaningless week 17 loss last year) averaged 33.6 attempts and 166.5 yards (5.0ypc) per game. The chargers game this year is the only outlier (22 attempts for 77 yards) and they only won cause they had a +4 turnover differential.

 

I also agree that stopping Hill is more important than stopping Kelce (Kelce had over 100 yards in each of their last 4 losses).

This is great analysis. Thanks, 404!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

The Chiefs have shown you can pass on them with a lot of success. 

 

I know everyone's talking about running the ball & game management, and yes, we have to be able to run so they can't just do what Pittsburgh did & drop everyone into coverage. But when Jalen Hurts puts up nearly 400 yards & Herbert is dropping 4 TD's on them, you can't forget your own strengths either.

 

We can't just be reactionary, and instead should look to our own strengths & exert pressure on them as well. Easier said than done, but when you have Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabe Davis & Dawson Knox (yes, him too!), can't shy away from what YOU want to do either.

1. Passing in neutral game script.

 

2. 4 and 5 wide formations. 
 

3. One factor in this offense that has been missing since 2018, is a consistent deep ball. Diggs hasn’t really provided that thus far, and we haven’t seen it consistently since Robert Foster. 
 

I assume Sanders is our deep threat now and if so, do the Bills get any easy 2-play type drives on Sunday? 

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

For me it’s bracket Hill, leave Poyer on Kelce, and allow Edmunds and Milano (if playing) to go sideline to sideline.  
 

Offense, stay will 11 personnel to chip one of the ends, and have Knox now more reliable as a dump off along with Moss.  This should be more of a Moss game.

 

I wouldn’t deviate from what gets you there, and not try and be something you’re not.  Not a fan of the empty sets with this team.  Lastly go for it on 4th and short.  FG’s will not win you the game even if we lose one or two.  Play to win, not to avoid losing.

Not a fan of empty sets.

 

Yes, I see two problems with Bills on empty sets.

 

1. Pittsburgh showed the Bills Offensive Line is not consistently good enough to protect without help, and I don’t think those problems are totally solved.

 

2. Daboll can get carried away and blinded by 4-5 wide sets if that was the gameplan coming in. He can get pass happy even if the strategy is not working. 

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, Governor said:

I don’t like passing up FG’s. They still matter. 3 or 4 teams lost this week because they went for it on 4th down and shouldn’t have.

 

If the score is 14-6 Chiefs and it’s 4th and 6 on the 27, you kick that FG. Going for it too often and before it’s completely necessary is the definition of playing scared.

 

Telling your Offense you aren't confident they can punch it in against one of the league's worst teams...4 times in a row...is the definition of playing scared.

[SoMAn]

Not to minimize the accomplishments of Diggs, Bass, etc....but does it seem that never-before-recognized statistics are just being made up arbitrarily to suit a narrative?

 

Yards/catches, etc in a season, game, career have always been metrics for individual achievement.  But when they start with:  'over the past 15 games, covering 2 seasons, in temperatures between 35 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit, after a bye week, only 3 other players have  ______________ (fill in the blank).

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

17 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Re: Chris Jones I thought I heard he was playing outside not inside this year

 

https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/lists/kansas-city-chiefs-updated-depth-chart-2021-week-5/

[JohnBonhamRocks]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/lists/kansas-city-chiefs-updated-depth-chart-2021-week-5/

Crazy their D isn’t better with that line. I really liked Nnadi as a prospect coming out. 

[Governor]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Telling your Offense you aren't confident they can punch it in against one of the league's worst teams...4 times in a row...is the definition of playing scared.

We don’t know what the defense will actually look like until the game starts. I expect their best game, whatever that is.

[RoyBatty is alive]

21 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Re: Chris Jones I thought I heard he was playing outside not inside this year

He is and they have been disappointed in his lack of productivity so don't be shocked if they move out to the inside although he dropped from 310 to 292 so might not be to easy a transition or jut move him on the line keep bills guessing.

Edited October 7, 2021 by RoyBatty is alive

[Rockinon]

The Bills couldn't run the ball or protect Allen last year. The defense couldn't make Mahomes uncomfortable or stop their run game. Win those trench battles, win the game.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Kelce scored 2 TDs in both games against us last year compared to Hill’s 0. We need to stop Kelce

Exactly,  I choose Kelce to jam then double.  Put Tre on Hill all day and hope he can keep up. Use delayed blitzes to confuse State Farm. Run the ball at least 40% and take the dump downs when they're there. 

[Rigotz]

Man....

 

Whatever happens in this game, these message boards are going to be annoying on Monday.

If we win it will be "GARANTEED SUPERBOWL, MAHOMS SUX" and if we lose it will be "JOSH WIL NEVR BE MAHOMS, GIVE UP" ...

[Golden]

Last game against the Chiefs, Diggs & Beasley & Davis we’re all very slowed by injuries.

     Also the Chiefs DB’s were daring the refs to throw a flag on their home field with the way they were covering the Bills receivers.  
     In the Super Bowl last year, especially in the first half, the Chiefs DB’s drew a lot of pass interference & or defensive holding penalties. The refs in my opinion sent them a message.  
       Also, John Brown in the last matchup was struggling to get off of press coverage.  
        Our difference this year besides having a different O line make up & 2 rookie pass rushers & Star back is Emmanuel Sanders.  I think he creates problems for the Chiefs, even if he does not rack up numbers….I’ll be watching 3 things,

     1.  I know it depends on JA having a good game & creating space, but how much of an advantage will our receivers have over the Chiefs defensive back field?
   2.  With a reshuffled O line & a rookie right tackle, how well will we run the ball & protect Allen? 
  3.  With the emphasis on our D line in the past off season, are we ready to make a difference there?

[SoCal Deek]

It's not complicated. The Chiefs have lost three of the last five games they've played.  Do more of what the three teams and less of what the other two did.

 

Done!

[BillsFan619]

39 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Man....

 

Whatever happens in this game, these message boards are going to be annoying on Monday.

If we win it will be "GARANTEED SUPERBOWL, MAHOMS SUX" and if we lose it will be "JOSH WIL NEVR BE MAHOMS, GIVE UP" ...

No, the most annoying ones will be the people who are STILL not convinced about Allen and the Bills if they win. You know, the goal posts moving type of people.

[corta765]

6. Carrie Underwood singing lol