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My top 5 keys to winning on SNF


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For me it’s bracket Hill, leave Poyer on Kelce, and allow Edmunds and Milano (if playing) to go sideline to sideline.  
 

Offense, stay will 11 personnel to chip one of the ends, and have Knox now more reliable as a dump off along with Moss.  This should be more of a Moss game.

 

I wouldn’t deviate from what gets you there, and not try and be something you’re not.  Not a fan of the empty sets with this team.  Lastly go for it on 4th and short.  FG’s will not win you the game even if we lose one or two.  Play to win, not to avoid losing.

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7 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

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2.  Be and stay aggressive on offense. We played very timid on offense in the AFCCG last year,, it was almost like we were watching a different team. Unless it's the end of half, we need to go for it. No 27yd fgs.

 

 

 

 

Bills coaches felt so intimidated by the fearsome Houston D that they pulled the Offense off the Red Zone 4 times in a row to kick FG instead.

 

Probably won't work Sunday.

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This game does indeed come down to the Coaching staff and putting the team in the right place to make plays.   Hill and Kelce will get their big plays....but putting pressure on Mahomes will go a long way in stopping too many big plays.  On offense, I agree that the nemesis for last year was the FGs....they needed to be TDs to stay with the big boys.

52 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Bills coaches felt so intimidated by the fearsome Houston D that they pulled the Offense off the Red Zone 4 times in a row to kick FG instead.

 

Probably won't work Sunday.

I think the Bills coaching staff played nervous until they got to 19 points.   After that they felt comfortable and let the dogs out.

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I don’t like passing up FG’s. They still matter. 3 or 4 teams lost this week because they went for it on 4th down and shouldn’t have.

 

If the score is 14-6 Chiefs and it’s 4th and 6 on the 27, you kick that FG. Going for it too often and before it’s completely necessary is the definition of playing scared.

Edited by Governor
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5 hours ago, gobills404 said:

I would also add that running the ball a lot AND efficiently would be a huge help. The 8 teams that have beat the chiefs since the start of the 2019 season (not counting their meaningless week 17 loss last year) averaged 33.6 attempts and 166.5 yards (5.0ypc) per game. The chargers game this year is the only outlier (22 attempts for 77 yards) and they only won cause they had a +4 turnover differential.

 

I also agree that stopping Hill is more important than stopping Kelce (Kelce had over 100 yards in each of their last 4 losses).

This is great analysis. Thanks, 404!

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3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

The Chiefs have shown you can pass on them with a lot of success. 

 

I know everyone's talking about running the ball & game management, and yes, we have to be able to run so they can't just do what Pittsburgh did & drop everyone into coverage. But when Jalen Hurts puts up nearly 400 yards & Herbert is dropping 4 TD's on them, you can't forget your own strengths either.

 

We can't just be reactionary, and instead should look to our own strengths & exert pressure on them as well. Easier said than done, but when you have Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabe Davis & Dawson Knox (yes, him too!), can't shy away from what YOU want to do either.

1. Passing in neutral game script.

 

2. 4 and 5 wide formations. 
 

3. One factor in this offense that has been missing since 2018, is a consistent deep ball. Diggs hasn’t really provided that thus far, and we haven’t seen it consistently since Robert Foster. 
 

I assume Sanders is our deep threat now and if so, do the Bills get any easy 2-play type drives on Sunday? 

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

For me it’s bracket Hill, leave Poyer on Kelce, and allow Edmunds and Milano (if playing) to go sideline to sideline.  
 

Offense, stay will 11 personnel to chip one of the ends, and have Knox now more reliable as a dump off along with Moss.  This should be more of a Moss game.

 

I wouldn’t deviate from what gets you there, and not try and be something you’re not.  Not a fan of the empty sets with this team.  Lastly go for it on 4th and short.  FG’s will not win you the game even if we lose one or two.  Play to win, not to avoid losing.

Not a fan of empty sets.

 

Yes, I see two problems with Bills on empty sets.

 

1. Pittsburgh showed the Bills Offensive Line is not consistently good enough to protect without help, and I don’t think those problems are totally solved.

 

2. Daboll can get carried away and blinded by 4-5 wide sets if that was the gameplan coming in. He can get pass happy even if the strategy is not working. 

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10 hours ago, Governor said:

I don’t like passing up FG’s. They still matter. 3 or 4 teams lost this week because they went for it on 4th down and shouldn’t have.

 

If the score is 14-6 Chiefs and it’s 4th and 6 on the 27, you kick that FG. Going for it too often and before it’s completely necessary is the definition of playing scared.

 

Telling your Offense you aren't confident they can punch it in against one of the league's worst teams...4 times in a row...is the definition of playing scared.

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Not to minimize the accomplishments of Diggs, Bass, etc....but does it seem that never-before-recognized statistics are just being made up arbitrarily to suit a narrative?

 

Yards/catches, etc in a season, game, career have always been metrics for individual achievement.  But when they start with:  'over the past 15 games, covering 2 seasons, in temperatures between 35 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit, after a bye week, only 3 other players have  ______________ (fill in the blank).

 

 

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4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Telling your Offense you aren't confident they can punch it in against one of the league's worst teams...4 times in a row...is the definition of playing scared.

We don’t know what the defense will actually look like until the game starts. I expect their best game, whatever that is.

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21 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Re: Chris Jones I thought I heard he was playing outside not inside this year

He is and they have been disappointed in his lack of productivity so don't be shocked if they move out to the inside although he dropped from 310 to 292 so might not be to easy a transition or jut move him on the line keep bills guessing.

Edited by RoyBatty is alive
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21 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Kelce scored 2 TDs in both games against us last year compared to Hill’s 0. We need to stop Kelce

Exactly,  I choose Kelce to jam then double.  Put Tre on Hill all day and hope he can keep up. Use delayed blitzes to confuse State Farm. Run the ball at least 40% and take the dump downs when they're there. 

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Last game against the Chiefs, Diggs & Beasley & Davis we’re all very slowed by injuries.

     Also the Chiefs DB’s were daring the refs to throw a flag on their home field with the way they were covering the Bills receivers.  
     In the Super Bowl last year, especially in the first half, the Chiefs DB’s drew a lot of pass interference & or defensive holding penalties. The refs in my opinion sent them a message.  
       Also, John Brown in the last matchup was struggling to get off of press coverage.  
        Our difference this year besides having a different O line make up & 2 rookie pass rushers & Star back is Emmanuel Sanders.  I think he creates problems for the Chiefs, even if he does not rack up numbers….I’ll be watching 3 things,

     1.  I know it depends on JA having a good game & creating space, but how much of an advantage will our receivers have over the Chiefs defensive back field?
   2.  With a reshuffled O line & a rookie right tackle, how well will we run the ball & protect Allen? 
  3.  With the emphasis on our D line in the past off season, are we ready to make a difference there?

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39 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Man....

 

Whatever happens in this game, these message boards are going to be annoying on Monday.

If we win it will be "GARANTEED SUPERBOWL, MAHOMS SUX" and if we lose it will be "JOSH WIL NEVR BE MAHOMS, GIVE UP" ...

No, the most annoying ones will be the people who are STILL not convinced about Allen and the Bills if they win. You know, the goal posts moving type of people.

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