Interesting Josh Allen Stat

[Elite Poster]

I remember we had a stat with Tyrod where we would essentially never win if down by 4+ points, looking over my NFL game pass today, an interesting stat that was pointed out is the Bills are 2-11 with Josh when down by 10+ pts. 

 

That is actually shocking, I felt like we have several come from behind wins with him, but I guess they are only 1 score games. Hopefully this is a result of sample size but it's not an encouraging trend for sure. 

[Warcodered]

I'm pretty sure a lot of teams have bad records when they get behind by 10+ points.

[Royale with Cheese]

The majority of these are from 2018 when Allen was raw and the team was bad.  We haven’t been down by 10 or more very often in the last two seasons.

[MJS]

Most games are decided by one score, so you would expect a bad record when down by multiple scores.

 

But I do thing that is the next level of experience and progression that this team needs to obtain: how to overcome big deficits and come back. Mahomes and the Chiefs have that experience. Brady has that experience. It's a tough thing to do, but if Allen can figure it out he will be truly elite.

[r00tabaga]

9 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I'm pretty sure a lot of teams have bad records when they get behind by 10+ points.

Baltimore had its first loss ever under JH when winning by 14 points or more..... Conversely they never come from behind when down by 14

Edited September 14, 2021 by r00tabaga

[thenorthremembers]

The same stat was also brought up on WGR this morning.   They essentially showed that Mahomes is the much better QB when down by 10+ points, not surprising because I think Mahomes is a better quarterback in a better offense.    Outside of 2020, Josh has been in a less talented offense, and he is also not able to hit the quick strike long ball consistently. 

 

It's only Tuesday, and we are starting to get into paralysis by analysis.   The reason teams like the Chiefs come back from 10+ points consistently is in part due to Quarterbacking.   It also has to do with the talent around the Quarterback.  

[PatsFanNH]

13 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

I remember we had a stat with Tyrod where we would essentially never win if down by 4+ points, looking over my NFL game pass today, an interesting stat that was pointed out is the Bills are 2-11 with Josh when down by 10+ pts. 

 

That is actually shocking, I felt like we have several come from behind wins with him, but I guess they are only 1 score games. Hopefully this is a result of sample size but it's not an encouraging trend for sure. 

Tell you how hard it is to win being down by 10 or more points, Brady holds the record with 37 comebacks  from said score.  (Including playoffs)

[Albany,n.y.]

10 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The same stat was also brought up on WGR this morning.   They essentially showed that Mahomes is the much better QB when down by 10+ points, not surprising because I think Mahomes is a better quarterback in a better offense.    Outside of 2020, Josh has been in a less talented offense, and he is also not able to hit the quick strike long ball consistently. 

 

It's only Tuesday, and we are starting to get into paralysis by analysis.   The reason teams like the Chiefs come back from 10+ points consistently is in part due to Quarterbacking.   It also has to do with the talent around the Quarterback.  

The reason the Chiefs come back from 10+ points is because they fall behind in a lot of games by not taking things seriously early on.  Then when they get punched in the face they turn to Mahomes to bail them out.  

[jletha]

Id prefer to not get behind by 10 points

[FilthyBeast]

33 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I'm pretty sure a lot of teams have bad records when they get behind by 10+ points.

 

Mahomes is 10-2 lifetime in these such games including the SB win a few years ago against the 49ers. He also was trailing by 10+ in the other two playoff games that year against the Titans and Texans (including 28-0 in that one).

 

Not sure about Brady's lifetime record but going to go on a limb and say it's ridiculously good.

 

But in regards to Allen, if you pay a guy $250M he needs to be much better than 2-11 in those circumstances and anybody that believes otherwise is kidding themselves. Allen has prove he's truly a special player and elite franchise QB especially at home.

Edited September 14, 2021 by FilthyBeast

[Johnnycage46]

We're not going to go too far if we keep getting down by 10+ points then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Mahomes has been doing this since he started in year 2… dude is another level QB.

 

I think Mahomes is still ahead in terms of that ability to just put a bad play out of his mind and play the next play. Josh got in his own head a bit Sunday every time the camera cut to him his body language screamed frustration. You just have to be able to acknowledge that has gone, next play, and he still has some room to grow there. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

I remember we had a stat with Tyrod where we would essentially never win if down by 4+ points, looking over my NFL game pass today, an interesting stat that was pointed out is the Bills are 2-11 with Josh when down by 10+ pts. 

 

That is actually shocking, I felt like we have several come from behind wins with him, but I guess they are only 1 score games. Hopefully this is a result of sample size but it's not an encouraging trend for sure. 

 

Were there any parameters on the "down by 10+ points" eg at any point in the game?

 

I had a quick look at last season.  In the regular season, we were down by 10 points at any point in the game in 3 games - Tenn, Chiefs, and Jets.

2 L, 1 W

 

There might be a point that Josh needs experience in the NFL of coming from behind in a 2 score game.  Obviously one needs to press a bit in those circs but there's an art to not pressing too hard/avoiding mistakes.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

46 minutes ago, MJS said:

Most games are decided by one score, so you would expect a bad record when down by multiple scores.

 

But I do thing that is the next level of experience and progression that this team needs to obtain: how to overcome big deficits and come back. Mahomes and the Chiefs have that experience. Brady has that experience. It's a tough thing to do, but if Allen can figure it out he will be truly elite.

I agree. That's the one part of his encouraging accent that he hasn't mastered yet. I want to think we have a chance down 14 in the 3rd quarter. Right now this offense has not looked good dating back to the Colts game. Have defenses figured out Josh & Daboll's tendencies? 

[Charles Romes]

When McDermott loses, he often gets crushed. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Whats the split from 2018 to 2019 to 2020?  I count 0-5 in 2018, if you include ravens.  0-4 if you don't.

 

2-6 in 2019-2020

 

2019

Patriots - Blocked punt was the difference.  Allen didn't finish this game.

Ravens.  Super windy, couple of missed plays on defense were the difference.  

Eagles.  Blowout, defense couldn't stop the run. Also windy as hell.

Jets - He barely played but you either count this one or the ravens one in 2018.  It's listed in his 2019 record so i assume it does?

 

 

2020 

Titans and chiefs x2.  I don't need to explain them i don't think.  A lot was on the defense in all 3 as much as Allen.

[Wayne Cubed]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Were there any parameters on the "down by 10+ points" eg at any point in the game?

 

I had a quick look at last season.  In the regular season, we were down by 10 points at any point in the game in 3 games - Tenn, Chiefs, and Jets.

2 L, 1 W

 

There might be a point that Josh needs experience in the NFL of coming from behind in a 2 score game.  Obviously one needs to press a bit in those circs but there's an art to not pressing too hard/avoiding mistakes.

 

 

I think it's at any point of the game. Funnily enough the other win in that 2-11 stat comes from the Jets as well. It was opening game in 2019, Bills were down 16-3 and came back and won 17-16. 

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

When McDermott loses, he often gets crushed. 

 

Definitely accurate, when this team loses they are typically bad across the board which was true in 3 of the 4 losses we took last year (Titans and Chiefs x2).

 

That's why looking back to the other day, it really does raise some alarms knowing we were essentially terrible for four quarters in a home game and allowed 23 unanswered points in the 2nd half.

 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Elite Poster said:

I remember we had a stat with Tyrod where we would essentially never win if down by 4+ points, looking over my NFL game pass today, an interesting stat that was pointed out is the Bills are 2-11 with Josh when down by 10+ pts. 

 

That is actually shocking, I felt like we have several come from behind wins with him, but I guess they are only 1 score games. Hopefully this is a result of sample size but it's not an encouraging trend for sure. 

8 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 11 Game-Winning Drives

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=AlleJo02

 

For Reference - Mahomes

 

7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 8 Game-Winning Drives

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=MahoPa00

[Jerome007]

52 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

But in regards to Allen, if you pay a guy $250M he needs to be much better than 2-11 in those circumstances and anybody that believes otherwise is kidding themselves. Allen has prove he's truly a special player and elite franchise QB especially at home.

As if 2018 Josh and 2021 are the same skillwise...

 

Yes I agree he needs to prove himself going forward. But then... nope. He was tense as hel l Sunday from the very first step. He motioned for the fans to quiet down right away, all stressed up, and did so after a gigantic special teams play to open the first fully packed homegame in over a year? He should have come out all smiles and THEN eventually tell the crowd to quite down. It was weird to see.

 

He plays best when he's a big kid having fun with his pals. That's what he needs to get back to. Results will happen by themselves if he's at peak mental state. I hope Diggs and some other key players can have him chill out and get back to having fun out there.

Edited September 14, 2021 by Jerome007

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Definitely accurate, when this team loses they are typically bad across the board which was true in 3 of the 4 losses we took last year (Titans and Chiefs x2).

 

That's why looking back to the other day, it really does raise some alarms knowing we were essentially terrible for four quarters in a home game and allowed 23 unanswered points in the 2nd half.

 

 

We weren't "terrible for 4 quarters".  We had some damn fine defensive play in the 1st half and some good defensive play nullified by ?? penalties in the 2nd half.

 

We had 1 turnover the whole game, that's a mistake, but strip sacks are going to occur with a QB who fights as hard as Josh does to extend the play.

We had a bad mistake on ST

 

Essentially when you can point to a handful of plays that swung the game, I don't think you can say "essentially terrible".  We had some good play, we had a handful of bad plays and questionable choices and calls.

 

The Tennessee game last season would be an example of "essentially terrible on all 3 phases" to me.

 

[Tenhigh]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Tell you how hard it is to win being down by 10 or more points, Brady holds the record with 37 comebacks  from said score.  (Including playoffs)

But how much did he spend on the refs to get that record?

 

😮

[dorquemada]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Mahomes is still ahead in terms of that ability to just put a bad play out of his mind and play the next play. Josh got in his own head a bit Sunday every time the camera cut to him his body language screamed frustration. You just have to be able to acknowledge that has gone, next play, and he still has some room to grow there. 

 

You're right of course.  The other kind of related factor, that seems common to most of the losses during the McD era is that even (especially?) when behind they are just lethargic.  Slow getting the play in, slow getting to the line, just no urgency whatsoever.  When there is 10 minutes left on the clock, the game is a few first downs from over, they need to start acting like it.  The only possibility i can think of is that the D is in such bad physical condition that McD is more worried about making sure they can catch their breath than he is in displaying any urgency on O

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

...

 

Essentially when you can point to a handful of plays that swung the game, I don't think you can say "essentially terrible".  We had some good play, we had a handful of bad plays and questionable choices and calls.

 

The Tennessee game last season would be an example of "essentially terrible on all 3 phases" to me.

 

 

Talk to a football gambler, they will tell you that almost every football game swings on 5 plays.   Given that the team cant afford multiple coaching brainfarts a game.  I dont even know how to classify the blocked punt, that was just a breakdown that is inexcusable for a team with pretensions to getting back to the AFCCG

[GoBills808]

39 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

8 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 11 Game-Winning Drives

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=AlleJo02

 

For Reference - Mahomes

 

7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 8 Game-Winning Drives

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=MahoPa00

@ScottLaw et al

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

The same stat was also brought up on WGR this morning.   They essentially showed that Mahomes is the much better QB when down by 10+ points, not surprising because I think Mahomes is a better quarterback in a better offense.    Outside of 2020, Josh has been in a less talented offense, and he is also not able to hit the quick strike long ball consistently. 

 

It's only Tuesday, and we are starting to get into paralysis by analysis.   The reason teams like the Chiefs come back from 10+ points consistently is in part due to Quarterbacking.   It also has to do with the talent around the Quarterback.  

 

agreed.  It also likely has to due to the fact that our defense can't get anyone off the field down the stretch in the 2nd half.  Happened against the Steelers, KC, etc.  Need to have a shot to come back.  I think JA is a clutch QB, but other circumstances have hindered his ability to make a 10+ point comeback.  

21 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

You're right of course.  The other kind of related factor, that seems common to most of the losses during the McD era is that even (especially?) when behind they are just lethargic.  Slow getting the play in, slow getting to the line, just no urgency whatsoever.  When there is 10 minutes left on the clock, the game is a few first downs from over, they need to start acting like it.  The only possibility i can think of is that the D is in such bad physical condition that McD is more worried about making sure they can catch their breath than he is in displaying any urgency on O

 

Talk to a football gambler, they will tell you that almost every football game swings on 5 plays.   Given that the team cant afford multiple coaching brainfarts a game.  I dont even know how to classify the blocked punt, that was just a breakdown that is inexcusable for a team with pretensions to getting back to the AFCCG

 

agreed.  Also inexcusable for a team that spends wayy to much $$ and player capital on ST.  (benching Moss for Breida on ST) 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

The same stat was also brought up on WGR this morning.   They essentially showed that Mahomes is the much better QB when down by 10+ points, not surprising because I think Mahomes is a better quarterback in a better offense.    Outside of 2020, Josh has been in a less talented offense, and he is also not able to hit the quick strike long ball consistently. 

 

It's only Tuesday, and we are starting to get into paralysis by analysis.   The reason teams like the Chiefs come back from 10+ points consistently is in part due to Quarterbacking.   It also has to do with the talent around the Quarterback.  

It also helps when Mahommes can just toss it in the air and Hill will make an adjustment, catch, then take it in for a TD.

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

It also helps when Mahommes can just toss it in the air and Hill will make an adjustment, catch, then take it in for a TD.

That was the exact play I was thinking about when I typed this up. 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

It also helps when Mahommes can just toss it in the air and Hill will make an adjustment, catch, then take it in for a TD.

I only saw it once on replay so can’t confirm, but on the Hill TD vs Browns it looked like he saw the DB facing him and located the underthrown ball early but continued his route as if it wasn’t until breaking it off at the last second knowing the corner would just fly on by. That is crazy ability…scumbag human being but top, top wideout talent. Guy has insane physical gifts.

[Matt_In_NH]

Its even worse when down by 15 or more

[First Round Bust]

yeah and Mahomes won his first his first game this past Sun when trailing by 10+ at the half

and

Browns have not won an opener since 2001.

and

9 upset wins this weekend won against the spread

its a new year....

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Tenhigh said:

But how much did he spend on the refs to get that record?

 

😮

The point is NO one has a great record when trailing by 10 or more of a guy in his 22 season and over 200 wins only has 37. 

[MrSarcasm]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I'm pretty sure a lot of teams have bad records when they get behind by 10+ points.

Is there even 1 coach/team that has a .500 record when down 10? Me thinks not.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Conversely, he’s been normally so solid throughout the games that the need for dramatics with large comeback margins at the end not as prevalent? That should count for something too—a team that doesn’t let huge holes be dug in the 1st place? 

1 hour ago, Tenhigh said:

But how much did he spend on the refs to get that record?

 

😮

[Mango]

I will include it here because I am unsure if it needs a new thread. 

 

A more interesting stat is that Brian Daboll continuously seems to put together an offense that has the QB hold onto the football for a super long time. Josh is regularly in the top 10 for Time to Throw (TT). Twice in the top 3 for longest time holding the ball. 

Which is fine. Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, have had years where they have been near the top. These guys can buy time and make things happen.

BUT!  If we are going to have a difficult time either getting the run game up and going early, or we want to be a pass first kind of offense, we have to be able to mix in some more west coast concepts and get the ball out super quick when we want to. High percentage, short yardage plays. 

[billybrew1]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

The same stat was also brought up on WGR this morning.   They essentially showed that Mahomes is the much better QB when down by 10+ points, not surprising because I think Mahomes is a better quarterback in a better offense.    Outside of 2020, Josh has been in a less talented offense, and he is also not able to hit the quick strike long ball consistently. 

 

It's only Tuesday, and we are starting to get into paralysis by analysis.   The reason teams like the Chiefs come back from 10+ points consistently is in part due to Quarterbacking.   It also has to do with the talent around the Quarterback.  

Hell  yes! I watched that game and the defense started making plays getting the ball back for Mahomes while simultaneously stopping the Cleveland O.

Just now, billybrew1 said:

Hell  yes! I watched that game and the defense started making plays getting the ball back for Mahomes while simultaneously stopping the Cleveland O.

I mean, Mahomes is clearly a magician but the KC D is notoriously underrated and it did create the most nester turnovers that led to the turnaround.

[ticketssince61]

That is a very generic statistic (as most are)

 

It does not take into account;

- how much you are down by (losing by 20 is included in losing by 10)

- when in the game you are down (e.g. are you down early in 1st quarter or late in the 4th)

- that the offense might come back, take the lead, and then the defense blows the game on the last play

[Freddie's Dead]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

That's why looking back to the other day, it really does raise some alarms knowing we were essentially terrible for four quarters in a home game and allowed 23 unanswered points in the 2nd half.

 

 

It was only 20 unanswered.  We kicked a FG to make it 20-13 (albeit a very weak "answer").  Or does it make it 13 unanswered, since the answered the Squeelers TD with a field goal?  Such a confusing cliche....

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by Freddie's Dead

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Why is 10 the magic number?  It's two scores even, but down by 9 seems like it's the same, right? You still need two full scores.  What's his record at the 9+ points range?  Just curious.  There's probably something obvious I'm missing though that makes 10 the magic number.

[Milanos Milano]

4 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said:

We're not going to go too far if we keep getting down by 10+ points then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tell that to Mahomes. 

[Johnnycage46]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Tell that to Mahomes. 

 

I did, but his wife yelled at me.