Which of the 1st round QBs do you think will bust, and which will be great?

[RobbRiddick]

7 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Usually going into their 4th season, you know how the 1st round QBs are shaking out.  The 2018 draft was a strange one.  Josh Rosen flamed out faster than any other 1st round QB that I can remember.  Darnold has been in such a bad situation I have no idea if he's a bust or if he has a future.  The Jets offensive talent last year was as bad as the 2018 Bills.  

 

Speaking of the 18 draft, this never fails to make me laugh, hearing Rosen say he's coming for Brady's SB record. The guy does have a very punchable face

 

 

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

I don’t think Trubisky is going anywhere with Daboll. And didn’t Daboll turn down the Jets already? I’m still sticking to the possibility that he goes to Miami and coaches Tua because of their Alabama connection. 

 

He won't go to Miami. Flores is doing a good job. If Daboll leaves the Bills it will for a HC opportunity.

[Craig Oi]

History hasn't been kind to Ohio State and Alabama QB's and I don't see that trend changing w/ these guys. There is something about Wilson that I don't trust. I see Lawrence being good out of the gate and Lance taking some time to develop.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Fields has a better skill set than most recent Ohio State QBs and has 22 career starts.  I'm just not sold on Lawrence and I have no idea why.  I'm a stats guys and his numbers got better every year.  Maybe it is the Clemson offense style that makes me worry he can be great in the NFL.  He obviously has the size and arm strength.  He has dead eyes and a blank stare most of the time.  

Wilson is looking like a bust and Mac Jones doesn't have the arm to play in the NFL

 

 

[TheBrownBear]

I think Wilson would have stood a chance at developing into a nice player if the Jets had given him a veteran QB presence to sit behind and learn from.  Now, I'm not so sure.

 

I like Lance to be the biggest positive surprise of the class.  

 

Lawrence should be good too.  I think he'll have an Andrew Luck type of impact.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Craig Oi said:

History hasn't been kind to Ohio State and Alabama QB's and I don't see that trend changing w/ these guys. There is something about Wilson that I don't trust. I see Lawrence being good out of the gate and Lance taking some time to develop.  

Ken stabler and Namath say hi 

 

How many colleges have two quarterbacks of that caliber? How many Tennessee quarterbacks are good before Peyton Manning?

[Alphadawg7]

Zack Wilson has a ton of upside, but he landed with a terrible organization.  And for that, I think he has the most bust potential because I have zero confidence in the Jets ability to properly develop and build around a young QB.  

[whorlnut]

6 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

"Darnold 2.0," said one official. 😅 I feel like these reporters just make **** up. There's NO way someone would leak that even if they really felt that way. 

 

That would be awesome. First, Tannehill for the Fins and hopefully Darnold in Carolina. Life is good. 

 

Funny thing is, Tannehill would put Miami over the top w/ that defense and I'm sure they would give a first round pick to have him back.

Well I disagree. If the official was on the lance or fields train then they will speak up. Guys in this business want to be right above all else. Look at some of the garbage about Allen last year when he was lighting it up. All the haters wanted to focus on was the middle of the season when he struggled. 

[BuffaloBills1998]

3 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

He won't go to Miami. Flores is doing a good job. If Daboll leaves the Bills it will for a HC opportunity.

Flores is a question mark, you can’t deny the team shut down on him last year in week 17. That was a reflection on him, that team wasn’t prepared or disciplined going into that game. Although Buffalo is a overall better team obviously talent wise and coaching wise, but for your team to lay down like that and cost you a playoff spot is not a good image for him moving forward. I think he gets this year and if they still don’t make the playoffs don’t be surprised if Miami starts courting Daboll especially because of his Alabama background

[Rc2catch]

I’m not sure I see any of this rookie class as being great. I think we know from our suffering what a huge deal it is for guys to be in the right situation. 
Lance probably comes out as the most successful if he wins that job just because they have such a strong run game and defense. 
Poor Fields in Chicago might have the worst setup, Lawrence is hyped as great but I can’t have any hope with that coach and teams track record, loved the Saleh hire in jersey but it’s jersey.. Can’t see Wilson having much success in this division. Definitely need to get the season started lol 

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Ken stabler and Namath say hi 

 

How many colleges have two quarterbacks of that caliber? How many Tennessee quarterbacks are good before Peyton Manning?

Or Wyoming.

 

Generally speaking though, big programs like Alabama and OSU produce very few decent QBs, let alone great ones. Too many star players around them and when they get to the NFL, they no longer have that edge and it’s not so easy anymore.

 

Obviously you can’t rule out X player because he went to X school. If we did that, we wouldn’t have Allen, but the difference is, Allen stood out as a man amongst boys on a very weak roster. Burrow, Hurts, Jones and Tua etc were literally just cogs in the machine.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Or Wyoming.

 

Generally speaking though, big programs like Alabama and OSU produce very few decent QBs, let alone great ones. Too many star players around them and when they get to the NFL, they no longer have that edge and it’s not so easy anymore.

 

Obviously you can’t rule out X player because he went to X school. If we did that, we wouldn’t have Allen, but the difference is, Allen stood out as a man amongst boys on a very weak roster. Burrow, Hurts, Jones and Tua etc were literally just cogs in the machine.

Realistically it all comes down to the player himself

 

There's not many colleges that have a laundry list of super successful quarterbacks

 

It all boils down to the individual

 

Maybe Ohio State hasn't produced great quarterbacks for 50 years because they like running quarterbacks as opposed to guys who will have NFL careers.. but they're even starting to recruit passers

 

 

[Victory Formation]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Realistically it all comes down to the player himself

 

There's not many colleges that have a laundry list of super successful quarterbacks

 

It all boils down to the individual

 

Maybe Ohio State hasn't produced great quarterbacks for 50 years because they like running quarterbacks as opposed to guys who will have NFL careers.. but they're even starting to recruit passers

 

 

Once again, I think it’s because of the level of difficulty that they face. QBs like Allen, Rodgers, Mahomes and Prescott were essentially thrown into the fire as college QBs, so when they went to the NFL, it almost made things easier in some ways because the talent differential equalized. It’s much different when you have Nick Saban as your HC and your fed baby food throughout your career. By the time they get to the NFL they still can’t handle solid food.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Once again, I think it’s because of the level of difficulty that they face. QBs like Allen, Rodgers, Mahomes and Prescott were essentially thrown into the fire as college QBs, so when they went to the NFL, it almost made things easier in some ways because the talent differential equalized. It’s much different when you have Nick Saban as your HC and your fed baby food throughout your career. By the time they get to the NFL they still can’t handle solid food.

Quinn Ewers is at Ohio State right now and he's going to be a stud in the NFL 

 

Again at the college level it's all about winning now.. it's not about throwing an NFL route tree , and hanging in the pocket too long

 

The majority of all high-level programs prefer athletes to pure quarterbacks.. because it helps them win football games in college 

 

Texas tech has had the most QB friendly system for a decade in college football...  Every QB there has out up stats for a decade.. they just finally got guys like baker and Mahomes who had the arm to go with accuracy   

 

The overall team may be lacking but TTech has fielded a passing offense for over a decade... They finally hit the jackpot 

 

Most of the top QB recruits in the country are runners or dual threats with not much NFL future... It doesn't deter schools like Ohio state and Alabama from recruiting them to win in college.. they don't need a Peyton Manning... But they will recruit a pocket passer with NFL future if they can.. ala ewers at Ohio State

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

Flores is a question mark, you can’t deny the team shut down on him last year in week 17. That was a reflection on him, that team wasn’t prepared or disciplined going into that game. Although Buffalo is a overall better team obviously talent wise and coaching wise, but for your team to lay down like that and cost you a playoff spot is not a good image for him moving forward. I think he gets this year and if they still don’t make the playoffs don’t be surprised if Miami starts courting Daboll especially because of his Alabama background

 

Their players are acting like many fans were during drought - they were saying it was better for draft position to be better than record when result is same.

Many of their players had little confidence in Tua and with Fitzpatrick out for season there was no one to inspire a comeback.

[Klaus]

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Ken stabler and Namath say hi 

 

How many colleges have two quarterbacks of that caliber? How many Tennessee quarterbacks are good before Peyton Manning?

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Lawrence is future 1st ballot HoFer

52 minutes ago, Klaus said:

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

How dare you...Tupa was a phenom!

 

At punting

[NoHuddleKelly12]

22 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

 

I could see Darnold having a good year in Carolina, if that happens and if Wilson sucks the Jets boards are going to be a rich source of entertainment all year

Not to fret, I’m quite sure Jimmy Spags will figure out a way to tell us such news is a Jets win-win! 

[78thealltimegreat]

You don’t want to say Wilson like everyone else has but Lance is in the perfect environment to groom a young QB…If Fields is just ok that’s good enough for Chicago…Lawrence is a once in 5 years talent…Wilson showed absolutely nothing at BYU that even said NFL QB he was an ESPN hype machine deal they do this every year with a couple guys for ratings 

[Albany,n.y.]

17 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Or Wyoming.

 

Generally speaking though, big programs like Alabama and OSU produce very few decent QBs, let alone great ones. Too many star players around them and when they get to the NFL, they no longer have that edge and it’s not so easy anymore.

 

Obviously you can’t rule out X player because he went to X school. If we did that, we wouldn’t have Allen, but the difference is, Allen stood out as a man amongst boys on a very weak roster. Burrow, Hurts, Jones and Tua etc were literally just cogs in the machine.

I think it's pretty funny saying college XXXX doesn't produce QBs.  Before Josh there were 3 Wyoming QBs drafted in the NFL draft.  The 1st 2 were Jim Walker taken in the 16th round of 1960 and played in the CFL, never in the NFL, and Rick Egloff taken in the 6th round by the Raiders in 1967, never played, got traded to Denver a year later, never played & his only professional career was a year in the CFL.  The only other QB out of Wyoming was Casey Bramlet taken in the 7th round by the Bengals in 2004 and had a journeyman backup career for a few years in the NFL.  

 

You never know where the next great QB is going to come from.  

Edited August 12, 2021 by Albany,n.y.

[Albany,n.y.]

4 hours ago, Klaus said:

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

Most of them were late round stabs where the percentage of success in the NFL is pretty low.  If a college with a long time head coach had about 5 or more 1st round busts, then I might be concerned it's just the system.  But still, don't judge a QB by his predecessors.  The reason Aaron Rodgers slipped in the draft was because his college coach, Ted Tedford, as a QB coach, OC & head coach was associated with 1st round NFL dissapointments Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Trent Dilfer & Kyle Boller.  By the time Rodgers entered the 2005 draft NFL teams were afraid to draft a Tedford coached QB, thinking it was more his system that made them look good in college.  

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, Klaus said:

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

Again I think it's all up to the prospect.. Ohio state hasnt produced many NFL QBs because they ran a offense predicated around running QBs for years .. if your gonna add Hurts to bama , gotta add Burrow to Ohio State

 

They weren't recruiting QBs with big time NFL potential most part.. college is about winning now , not standing in the Pocket and throwing a route tree.. 

 

So they would rather have athletes who can run and throw a little .. even now that is changing with Fields and a freshman they have their Quin Ewers.. who is the #1 HS player and future top 10 pick 

 

So they can recruit a big time NFL prospect if they want 

 

Even Alabama putting out 3 QBs in the last 10 years is great..  considering dozens of schools never get a QB drafted 

 

It's ALWAYS about the individual kid... His drive and passion and work ethic 

 

Look at all 32 starters and you are getting 20+ different schools... There is no QB factory for successful NFL QBs... 

 

2 from Cal - Goff , Rodgers  

 

2 from Clemson- Watson , Lawrence 

 

Tua and Hurts- Alabama

 

Baker and Hurts- Oklahoma 

 

It really boils down to individuals

 

 

 

[BaaadThingsMan]

Taking a stab at it, I could be right or wrong:

Lance will be the best of em all

Lawrence will struggle early and end up just ok

Wilson and Fields will bust

Jones will stick in NE but is not guaranteed to start 

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

Wilson will be a bust in NY then sign somewhere else cheap and become an average starter I believe.

 

Lawrence will be the face of the NFL w Mahomes in a few years. Kid is P Manning kinda special. I think Fields is a bust in Chicago and has a shortened career.  Lance will start and be good for a few years then fizzle out like Kap did as teams figure him out.

 

I am biased on Jones so leaving him out. 

[CommonCents]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wilson will be a bust in NY then sign somewhere else cheap and become an average starter I believe.

 

Lawrence will be the face of the NFL w Mahomes in a few years. Kid is P Manning kinda special. I think Fields is a bust in Chicago and has a shortened career.  Lance will start and be good for a few years then fizzle out like Kap did as teams figure him out.

 

I am biased on Jones so leaving him out. 

If Lawrence ends up being a better player than Josh Allen, I will eat all my shoes and brush my teeth with the toilet brush. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

If Lawrence ends up being a better player than Josh Allen, I will eat all my shoes and brush my teeth with the toilet brush. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It was a veiled troll line.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I think Justin Fields will be considered the best in this class in 5 years. Chicago isn't known for being an offensive juggernaut, but I think he has a great skill-set.

 

I think Trey Lance will also be successful because of his athleticism, supporting cast, and offensive staff.

 

There's something about Trevor Lawrence that makes me think he won't be a good NFL qb, but it's purely a gut feeling.

 

Zach Wilson put up big numbers against weak opponents in college, but I do think he has a good arm. If you watch his tape, his wide stance in the pocket and his scrambling have an uncanny resemblance to Josh Allen, but I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good. The Jets will find a way to squander his talent 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by Allen2Diggs

[Maynard]

I think Lance may be the best of the bunch followed by Lawrence. I think Fields and Wilson will be backups in 3 years, just like Trubs. Mac might be okay if he always has a stellar line. 

[Orlando Tim]

I think Wilson is in the worst situation, so I doubt he survives enough to be good. Mac is in a good situation but lacks ability. Lawrence and Lance will be good but not hall of Fame good. Fields I don't want to predict because my biggest insult of him is he went to OSU and all their QBs suck as pro.

[YoloinOhio]

I’ve seen enough. Mac to the HOF. 
 

Bob’s Discount Furniture will foot the bill for his induction party. 

[Putin]

On 8/11/2021 at 12:29 PM, LeGOATski said:

I think Lance and Lawrence will be good enough starters. The rest are backups at best.

This ^^^^

[blacklabel]

Of what I watched, which wasn't a whole lot, I got the vibe that Fields kinda has it. I think he's got something to him and maybe he'll be a boom, we shall see. 

 

The other guys, I dunno about Lance. Only 19 starts at Nebraska. It sounds nuts to say this because we Bills fans haven't had the franchise QB in forever, but, maybe teams are gonna follow the McBeane Method of Quarterback Development! Lance will need consistent coaching and good WRs (they seem ok there, I like dat Deebo kid) just like they gave Josh. The difference is in work ethic and how well they can understand the system and apply it, etc etc. 

 

I didn't see a lot of Wilson. I know he has a good arm and seems to move around well in the pocket. He can go ahead and throw 9 INTs to the Bills D, though. In one game if he wants to be efficient, or spread out over two, we're not....picky....but we are...cause ya see....JFC I gotta go to bed 

[Weatherman]

On 8/11/2021 at 9:38 AM, RobbRiddick said:

I'm always fascinated by the first round QBs every year, all the debates around them, their weaknesses and strengths etc. Out of all the positions in football, there's no other that inspires so many arguments and strong opinions.

 

As someone who doesn't follow college ball, I'm interested to know what people think of this year's crop, which you see as being busts, which you see as being average with a sort of career back-up future, and which you see as being great.

 

I'm trying to watch the tape of them at the moment but I've only seen Wilson so far. My lack of game study has really shown through because one second I think he's going to be a great player down the line, then other times it dawns on me that so many of his games look like practice sessions where he has all day to scan the field and his receivers are wide open.

 

But all in all there's something about the kid that makes me think he's going to succeed. Not just his abilities but his attitude and self belief.

 

How do you guys see the class of 2021 turning out when it's all said and done? These things are always fun to revisit after three or four years. We have some real college experts here so I'm really interested to hear your opinions (I swear I'm not gathering info for any sort of bet...)

Compared to JA17, they will all bust!

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Again I think it's all up to the prospect.. Ohio state hasnt produced many NFL QBs because they ran a offense predicated around running QBs for years .. if your gonna add Hurts to bama , gotta add Burrow to Ohio State

 

They weren't recruiting QBs with big time NFL potential most part.. college is about winning now , not standing in the Pocket and throwing a route tree.. 

 

So they would rather have athletes who can run and throw a little .. even now that is changing with Fields and a freshman they have their Quin Ewers.. who is the #1 HS player and future top 10 pick 

 

So they can recruit a big time NFL prospect if they want 

 

Even Alabama putting out 3 QBs in the last 10 years is great..  considering dozens of schools never get a QB drafted 

 

It's ALWAYS about the individual kid... His drive and passion and work ethic 

 

Look at all 32 starters and you are getting 20+ different schools... There is no QB factory for successful NFL QBs... 

 

2 from Cal - Goff , Rodgers  

 

2 from Clemson- Watson , Lawrence 

 

Tua and Hurts- Alabama

 

Baker and Hurts- Oklahoma 

 

It really boils down to individuals

 

 

 

1 (The only one that matters) from Wyoming - Allen

Edited August 13, 2021 by Weatherman

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1. Trey Lance

 

2. Trevor Lawrence

 

 

3. Mac Jones

 

 

4. Justin Fields

5. Zach Wilson

 

 

[HOUSE]

I thought Mac Jones played pretty well last night but you can't coach accuracy ...

[DCOrange]

My tiers based on my draft grades for each:

 

Tier 1: Trevor Lawrence

Tier 2: 

Tier 3: Justin Fields, Trey Lance

Tier 4: Zach Wilson

Tier 5: Kellen Mond, Mac Jones, Davis Mills

Tier 6: 

Tier 7: Kyle Trask

 

As you can see, I'm relatively low on Mac Jones, and additionally, New England doesn't have all that much offensive talent around him. But you never know with their coaching staff; they've generally found a way to have good offenses so it's hard to count him out. Lance seems to be in the best situation for success. I tend to think Lawrence should be good enough to overcome being in Jacksonville.

[DCofNC]

I expect Lawrence to be fine.

 

Wilson is a wild card, but the odds are against him, so I’d call bust there if I had to.

 

Lance, I’m just not sure.  I think Shanny can make him look ok, but didn’t see a lot of passing from him, so this is tough.  Heaps of potential, but I’d still say more likely bust than boom.

 

Jones, I think will be a solid Andy Dalton+ type.

 

Fields, I don’t know why, but I think has a chance to be above average.  I look for him to be a mid-level starter in the NFL, similar to Tannehill.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 8/11/2021 at 3:54 PM, RobbRiddick said:

 

Speaking of the 18 draft, this never fails to make me laugh, hearing Rosen say he's coming for Brady's SB record. The guy does have a very punchable face

 

 

I recall hearing this somewhere: 
 

“Arrogance when you are The man against boys can work.  Arrogance when you are a man amongst men can be problematic.” 
 

I think it’s Pythagorean theory.  Or, maybe, Dr. Phil.   

[Captain Hindsight]

On 8/11/2021 at 12:41 PM, LeviF said:

 

Jets dumped Sam Darnold to draft Mormon Sam Darnold.

 

Life is good.

Probably less likely to get mono I guess

[Boxcar]

On 8/11/2021 at 2:52 PM, Klaus said:

There is so much Trey Lance love out there, perhaps because Josh Allen was part of the build up going into the draft? But I just don't see strong parallels to Josh, and will call him being a bit of a bust. 

 

But then again I'm not high on any of these QBs, having an immediate positive impact on their teams this year, but going into year two I think Fields and Lawrence both bring good things to the table. 

Fields went vegan, so automatic bust. He's going to be constantly injured and ineffective.