Divisional Playoff round: Ravens at Bills on Saturday Night Football

[Unforgiven]

I can never remember such an outcry and whine fest over possible opponents. The 90's

Bills played ultra tough teams in the playoffs never heard this much fear from the fanbase..

 

Josh is a great QB...team is well coached and stacked with talent...

Why can't the Bills win this game? Everyone relax...

Imagine what you will be doing after the Bills beat the Ravens...and then the Chiefs, onto the

SB vs a poonch key nfc team...

[BearNorth]

6 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

Certainly by the 4th Davis was out, but Jonnu was still there.  They went after Humphreys early with Brown, but they got away from it.  There was just this stubbornness that they could get Henry going.  It didn't happen.

Just saying, with our run D, glad we don't have to face Henry.  They kicked our butts in the strange game in Nashville.  Think the blackbirds are a better matchup.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

So long as the Bills score I think they win, but if the Ravens shut down Allen I can't see it.... considering the Ravens dynamic rushing offense and the Bills can't tackle. 

 

Josh's lowest outputs this season (not games he sat out 1 and 2 QTR's)

 

KC - 122.  the end of a long (short) 2 week stretch where Josh was also nursing an injured shoulder.

NE - 154.  Week 8.  Weather and above mentioned injury

Chargers 157 Week 12. Can't recall why he was 18 of 24. 

 

the last 4 games his average is 323* passing yards per game 

375 SFO, 238 PIT, 359 DEN and 320* (3 quarters)

[bills6969]

54 minutes ago, wjag said:

Why is everyone focusing on just Jackson in this game?  Edwards and Dobbins are the other two elements.  They all run the ball behind a behemoth of a FB.  Fine, keep Lamar in the pocket if you can on pass plays, but the Ravens run a lot of plays where Lamar stuffs the ball into the gut of both Edwards and Dobbins and then pulls it out for the keeper or leaves it there.  Tennessee had increasing difficulty figuring out whom to crash down on.  That run game with pulling guards and tackles is what makes them so potent.  Buffalo is going to get gashed all game long by this play.  The offense is going to need to out point them.  This has 200 yards rushing written all over it.  Watching the Tennessee game, Tennessee did a good job of taking away Andrews.  Best I have seen all year.  So Jackson found Brown mostly amd Boykin somewhat.  The other thing I noticed was Tennessee left Ricard (FB) open in the flat and he made some big catches from there.  I get it, let the FB beat you rather than the TE or WR.  It's going to be an interesting chess match.

 

 

Spot on.  The RPO/Playaction is deadly if the running game gets going.  They execute it very well.  One of those things that tough to stop even if you know it’s coming.   I’m hoping we can force LJ into a bad turnover or two.  That may be the difference in this game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, wjag said:

Why is everyone focusing on just Jackson in this game?  Edwards and Dobbins are the other two elements.  They all run the ball behind a behemoth of a FB.  Fine, keep Lamar in the pocket if you can on pass plays, but the Ravens run a lot of plays where Lamar stuffs the ball into the gut of both Edwards and Dobbins and then pulls it out for the keeper or leaves it there.  Tennessee had increasing difficulty figuring out whom to crash down on.  That run game with pulling guards and tackles is what makes them so potent.  Buffalo is going to get gashed all game long by this play.  The offense is going to need to out point them.  This has 200 yards rushing written all over it.  Watching the Tennessee game, Tennessee did a good job of taking away Andrews.  Best I have seen all year.  So Jackson found Brown mostly amd Boykin somewhat.  The other thing I noticed was Tennessee left Ricard (FB) open in the slot and he made some big catches from there.  I get it, let the FB beat you rather than the TE or WR.  It's going to be an interesting chess match.

 

 

 

God, that fullback is ridiculous.  He has arms the size of Stefon Diggs waist.

 

I am trying to understand the difference between Tennessee's successful shut-down of the Ravens offense last year vs. getting thwumped yesterday.

So far this is what I've come up with: they didn't shut down the Raven's offense as much as I thought last year. 

-Baltimore dominated both TOP and 1st downs

-Jackson ran for 143 yds against them. 

-Jackson passed for 365 yds against them.

-The Titans did, however, limit Ingram and Edwards to 20 yds-ish apiece and force Jackson to pass more.

-Mistakes were a big difference.  Jackson had a fumble, two picks, and was sacked 4x

-Last year, Tennessee could not pass against them, except when it most mattered (for TDs).  But Tannehill was mistake free

-Last year, Henry ran over Baltimore for 195 yds.

Last year stats summary:

 

-This year, the Ravens played to shut down Henry and they did.  40 yds for King Henry.

-Tennessee's passing game was unable to pick up the slack

-Takeaway/giveaway was equal with 1 INT by each QB.  That's huge, especially in context.

-Tenn only managed a FG out of their pick on Lamar while the Ravens picked Tannehill as the Titans were driving to tie the game.

-Lamar Jackson ran for about the same number of yards this year, 136 yds.

-Dobbins and Edwards got more, but nothing crazy - 43 and 38 yds.

 

 

I don't think you spy on Jackson.  The key is discipline and setting the edge.

 

I think the keys to the game were:

1. Lamar avoiding mistakes - 1 pick vs 2 + fumble

2. Tenn being unwilling or unable to pick up the slack with their pass game

The two kind of go together because being tied at the half and ahead shortly after the 2nd half started allowed the Ravens to stay in their game.

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

40 minutes ago, H2o said:

Stephen A with his clown act. Expect a lot of this throughout the week, the Lamar slobfest by the bobble heads. 

 

I hope so. I want nothing but praise for Lamar and the Ravens. 

[Iverwig]

33 minutes ago, H2o said:

Stephen A with his clown act. Expect a lot of this throughout the week, the Lamar slobfest by the bobble heads. 

 

Stephen A as usual didn’t do his homework because Josh and the Bills have gone up against some good defenses and teams with great pass defenses this year. I could be mistaken but I thought I saw the Bills strength of schedule was the hardest of the AFC playoff teams. If it’s not the Cowboys or the NBA Smith doesn’t know much but hopefully Josh and the team see this take. 

[PrimeTime101]

Lamar Jackson is the IT factor on Baltimore. Lets for sakes of .... giggles lets play a numbers game.. Lamar against a Terrible Titans teams ran for 136 and threw for 179. 312 yards total. Other then the last game, our defense has been significantly better. Take into effect this info I would expect Lamar to run for 100 and throw way to often. This defense knows how to beat Baltimore....  We Bumped and ran on there TE's that last game and manned up their WR's. This has not changed.. They don't have Rivers where the ball is gone in 2.5 seconds every down.

 

Will this game be a blow out? no.. no way.. But I expect the Bills to win this game and only look close do to a garbage TD.

 

 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I hope so. I want nothing but praise for Lamar and the Ravens. 

Definitely. I want a pissed off defense on the field that feels slighted, one out there playing with a chip on their shoulders and some purpose. I want a ticked off Josh leading an offense that no one gives a chance, because we are facing the "vaunted" Ravens defense, who then proceeds to dissect them like a frog in 10th Grade Biology class. 

[st pete gogolak]

12 hours ago, bills6969 said:

I was hoping we’d avoid Baltimore.  They have been one of the hotter teams in the league as of late and seems like LJ8 is looking more like the player that won the MVP last year.  Really worried about our run defense.  We got gashed for some big runs by the Colts.  It must be better against Ravens or it will be bad news for us.

Yeah, they’re hot but the wins have been over Cowboys, Jags, Bengals, Giants and the Houdini escape act against the Browns.  They did beat a good Titans team on the road and we didn’t play a great game against the Colts but if we play well, we certainly can win this game.

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

Due to the style of defense the Ravens play, If the Bills line can step up to the challenge and buy Allen some time OR if Allen can continue to buy time with his legs, big plays will be there for the taking all game long.  I like the Bills against man much more than I do against zone.  

To start the game, an early read for Allen (1 or 2) needs to be the short routes.  The Ravens have to respect Digg's and Brown's speed so they should have button hooks open all day.  Make the Ravens guess which one is going to fly; Allen needs to do a good job reading the safeties and hitting his receivers on outside shoulders.

 

Beas needs to find the opening on quick slots.

 

Knox needs to be a quick option on flats and slants.

 

I think the strategy with the Ravens is to play small ball in the passing game, with an occasional deep ball to keep 'em honest.

[wjag]

Forget the Ravens run offense.  It's going to get its share.  I want to focus on the five game balls that will be handed out if the Bills win.  They will go to Dawkins, Boettger, Morse, Feliciano and Williams.  The intriguing part of this matchup is the Ravens will play man.  If the Bills Oline can keep Josh clean, this could be a fun game to watch.  

[Olliemets]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Crazy note for this weekend: 

 

Average age of AFC starting QB’s: 24.5

 

Average age of NFC starting QB’s: 37

 

Crazy disparity in the landscape of young star QB’s in the league right now. 
 

 

Your mouth to God’s ears. 

If not for Rams win we'd have seen (IMO) the 8 best QBs in the league this coming WE. Its a QB driven league. Glad we finally have one in the conversation. Bit of a passing of the torch in AFAC as both Rivers and Big Fat Ben eliminated.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Olliemets

[Cheektowaga Chad]

If our defense plays as well as they did last season against the ravens we should win fairly easily

 

The problem is I don't think the defense is nearly as good as last season

[wjag]

1 minute ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

If our defense plays as well as they did last season against the ravens we should win fairly easily

 

The problem is I don't think the defense is nearly as good as last season

 

That's the issue.  It is talked about reverently, expectantly and aspirationally on here, but it ain't here.  The sweeps to the sidelines and/or the run between the tackles, -- pick your poison --, work equally well against this defense.  

[ndirish1978]

Ravens and Chiefs were the two teams I was unenthusiastic about playing. That said, if you want to win championships you're going to have to beat these teams to earn it, so I'm not going to complain that we have to earn it. 

[ColoradoBills]

I don't see past season "statistics" meaning anything in a Divisional Playoff game.

 

Seems simple to me:

 

Bills pass the ball extremely well.

Ravens run the ball extremely well.

The offense that figures out how to do it better will most likely win while adding a good dose of "who wants it more".

 

It's going to be a tough game for both teams.

Go Bills.

[jkeerie]

It doesn't surprise me that the Bills are facing the Ravens.  We've played one of the toughest schedules to even get to the playoffs, finishing 13-3 against that schedule.  Now we play one of the toughest schedules in the playoffs to advance.  Just have to rise to the occasion and play our best.

[TBBills]

This game will be much easier for the Bills than the Colts. I think with Colts they just made so many mental errors that I don't see them making those this week.

Edited January 11, 2021 by TBBills

[PromoTheRobot]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but it appears this game is SOLD OUT.

 

EDIT: Judging by the reaction I'm assuming it was a while ago.

Edited January 11, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

I'm 50/50 with this game. Truly can go either way.

 

This is fun.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t remember this. They did coach together for 8 years in Philly though.

 

 

4 of those games were against the same two teams as they played against the Steelers and Browns twice.  A 5th game was against WFT.  A little misleading imo.

 

Baltimore plays man.  Allen eats that for breakfast.

[ngbills]

I think the Bills and Ravens are the two best teams in the league the past 2 months. We all follow the Bills so know what they have been doing. Most only casually see or hear what the Ravens have been up to. It is important to not get caught up on the early season issues. Lets take a look:

 

Held 6 out of last 7 under 20 points.

Last 4 games held opponents under 300 yards of offense; Only did this twice in first 13 games. 

Only 1 TD given up in 1 first quarter and 3 first half TD's given up in last 5 games of season. 

4 of last 5 regular season wins were by double digits.

Offense has rushed for over 200 in 5 of last 6. Only did this twice in first 11 games. 

 

It is going to be a tough game. The key is jumping out and taking a lead. Dont let BAL lean on its D and running game by giving up early points. I dont think either team will turn the ball over. Going to be a tough. Much tougher than Pit would have been. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

I don’t have last year’s Ravens game on the DVR anymore lol, anyone remember who spied Jackson in that game.

 

I don't believe they were using a spy.

 

Quote

Edmunds had a good day iirc. How about snap counts? How big was Lawson, Phillips , Star etc. I still think many elements of that game plan will be used , with a few wrinkles by McD / Frazier because the Ravens are mostly the same. Other players on our D will have to step into those roles, but curious how it was done. I think Poyer or Hyde blew the coverage on the big catch and run TD by their TE. 

 

Shaq was big.  Very good at setting the edge.  Lorenzo Alexander was HUGE.  Played 70% of the snaps.  Edmunds and Milano were also on the field for 100% of the game, so we actually played something that looked more like base 3-4 for much of the game (but with different roles) - I *think* this is what Zo called "Buffalo" or "heavy Nickle"

 

Star and Murphy also played a lot. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201912080buf.htm

 

The big catch and run was very probably a rare miscommunication between Hyde and Poyer.

[K-9]

28 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned but it appears this game is SOLD OUT.

 

EDIT: Judging by the reaction I'm assuming it was a while ago.

Awesome! This means it will be televised locally! YES!!

[par73]

38 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

That's the issue.  It is talked about reverently, expectantly and aspirationally on here, but it ain't here.  The sweeps to the sidelines and/or the run between the tackles, -- pick your poison --, work equally well against this defense.  

Bills D is missing several pieces from last year. The replacements have not performed as hoped. The Ravens also stifled Allen ( less than 150 yds. passing and six sacks). Yes, he has taken a huge step up, and they have Diggs now--- still that Raven D. is very tough.

[wjag]

25 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I think the Bills and Ravens are the two best teams in the league the past 2 months. We all follow the Bills so know what they have been doing. Most only casually see or hear what the Ravens have been up to. It is important to not get caught up on the early season issues. Lets take a look:

 

Held 6 out of last 7 under 20 points.

Last 4 games held opponents under 300 yards of offense; Only did this twice in first 13 games. 

Only 1 TD given up in 1 first quarter and 3 first half TD's given up in last 5 games of season. 

4 of last 5 regular season wins were by double digits.

Offense has rushed for over 200 in 5 of last 6. Only did this twice in first 11 games. 

 

It is going to be a tough game. The key is jumping out and taking a lead. Dont let BAL lean on its D and running game by giving up early points. I dont think either team will turn the ball over. Going to be a tough. Much tougher than Pit would have been. 

 

Ever since they got over their covid stuff, and re-emphasized the run game, they have been rolling.  Their game is to get ahead in the first quarter and then pound the rock.  They have THE best kicker in the league.  Their punter is top notch.  They are heavy into analytics and likely to go more times than not on 4th down.  Their Dline with Judon, Williams, Campbell and Wolfe is solid.  They have a rookie ML in Queen.  They have a solid secondary.  Peters being the most likely to be targeted.   KC shredded their man-to-man early in the season and essentially routed them.    They run a three-headed rushing attack with Edwards, Dobbins and Ingram (inj).  They are healthy as any team heading into the playoffs.  They are brash team.  Their TE is lethal down the middle and out on short routes to the left or right.  Their best receiver is Brown who is in full diva mode this year.  He was absent during their dip but is back and running good routes.  Their other guy, Boykin makes enough splash plays to be a concern.  The strength of last year's team was the TEs.  They let Hurst (he beat the Bills on that route last year) leave for Atlanta so they aren't as deep at TE as they were.  Last point, they lost Stanley, LT, a few weeks back (just after they paid him extortion LT dollars 🙂) and seemingly don't miss him in the run game.  So kudos to them and their depth.  

Edited January 11, 2021 by wjag

[freddyjj]

12 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I think the Bills and Ravens are the two best teams in the league the past 2 months. We all follow the Bills so know what they have been doing. Most only casually see or hear what the Ravens have been up to. It is important to not get caught up on the early season issues. Lets take a look:

 

Held 6 out of last 7 under 20 points.  NYG, CIN , JAX, DAL and PIT are not good offenses.  Did stop TEN but CLE put up a 40 burger in a loss.

Last 4 games held opponents under 300 yards of offense; Only did this twice in first 13 games.  Together, JAX, NYG and CIN do not have an NFL QB  

Only 1 TD given up in 1 first quarter and 3 first half TD's given up in last 5 games of season.  See above

4 of last 5 regular season wins were by double digits.  PIT, JAX, NYG and CIN are not the Mt Rushmore of teams 

Offense has rushed for over 200 in 5 of last 6. Only did this twice in first 11 games.  Only PIT had a D in top 16.

 

It is going to be a tough game. The key is jumping out and taking a lead. Dont let BAL lean on its D and running game by giving up early points. I dont think either team will turn the ball over. Going to be a tough. Much tougher than Pit would have been. 

 

[RichRiderBills]

Hey just rewatched the extended highlights of the 2019 game....wow , i forgot how close that game was. Josh was erratic. Bailed on a few pockets earlier than he would now. But there the last Brown pass was dead on to potentially tie that one, despite a lot of mistakes.

 

After rewatching, my same worries remain; Balt getting sacks and fumbles, and Lamar making a few electric plays.

 

The long Hurst TD ..man we gotta stop these TEs.

 

The big difference this year, a noticeably better Allen, espc, versus the blitz, then Diggs and Gabe Davis i hope, more big plays from Bills offense. Im not totally sure of we will get better line play, but Josh needs a quicker release than last season.  No way Balt will limit us to 210 total yards this go around.

 

We will be right there with them, and i think we will see a lot of the same looks.

 

I agree about jumping out early...was crazy to hear this 10 point comeback @ Tenn was Lamar's biggest comeback. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

And 56 on the fish.

HAHAHAHAHA,,,,it's still funny!!

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Since Week 13? Why not week 12, or 8 or 3?? I mean, WTF!!!

[YoloinOhio]

Remember this guy? 
 

 

[MarkS]

13 hours ago, Virgil said:

Am I the only one who hates the Ravens offense and thinks it’s gimmicky?  I understand strategy and run what works for you, but I still don’t think Lamar is a legit QB and they succeed by running a college offense that no one else does; which gives you an advantage week to week because people aren’t used to scheming to stop it. 
 

I don’t mind scrambling QB’s and the RPO, I just don’t like making it your entire offense.  Man up and play football 

Lamar threw for 26 TDs, 9 INTs, and completed 64.4%

Baker Mayfield threw for 26TDs, 8 INTs, and completed 62.8%

Matt Stafford threw for 26TDs, 10 INTs, and completed 64.2%

 

Are they not legit QBs?

 

Also, if you think the RPO is the Ravens entire offense, you need to take a deeper look at the Ravens play-calling

 

Also, playing the QB position (or any position) is about finding ways to be effective, not about trying to fit someone's definition of "manliness"

[Bing Bong]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

makes me want to puke

12 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Hey just rewatched the extended highlights of the 2019 game....wow , i forgot how close that game was. Josh was erratic. Bailed on a few pockets earlier than he would now. But there the last Brown pass was dead on to potentially tie that one, despite a lot of mistakes.

 

After rewatching, my same worries remain; Balt getting sacks and fumbles, and Lamar making a few electric plays.

 

The long Hurst TD ..man we gotta stop these TEs.

 

The big difference this year, a noticeably better Allen, espc, versus the blitz, then Diggs and Gabe Davis i hope, more big plays from Bills offense. Im not totally sure of we will get better line play, but Josh needs a quicker release than last season. 

 

We will be right there with them, and i think we will see a lot of the same looks.

 

I agree about jumping out early...was crazy to hear this 10 point comeback @ Tenn was Lamar's biggest comeback. 

I don't know about this last wildcard week but the 2 worst games of Lamar's career are pretty much his last 2 playoff games before this year.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if he's gotten his playoff yips out of his system come next week. 

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

This game will be much easier for the Bills than the Colts. I think with Colts they just made so many mental errors that I don't see them making those this week.

I disagree.  I think Baltimore is better than Indy.  Jackson is a problem 

[Ya Digg?]

I like that Baltimore is a blitzing team-Josh is so much better this year against the blitz, the line is much better at picking it up, he has much better weapons than last year...being on the blitz!!

[Jauronimo]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Mahomes threw for 385 yards against them, and Baker for 340.  Maybe those are aberrations, but I think we will be able to get our yards.

Those were the only 300 yard passing games the Ravens gave up all year so they look like aberrations*.  Also, the Chiefs and Browns ran for over 100 yards in those games.  

 

The Rams and 49ers are also top passing defenses.  We gained more air yards on them than any team this season.  We were only the 7th highest in passing yards vs. Picksburgh.  

 

I don't know what any of this means but thought it was intersting.

 

*Stat from pro football reference for passing yards allowed includes sack yardage.  Interestingly enough, these numbers do not tie to the offensive totals per PFR.  If we look at Bills v Rams, they are credited with 274 yards passing defense but Allen has 311 passing yards when adjusted for sacks.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/2020.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Read 3 articles that said that Titans had the most success slowing down the Ravens by rushing 3 down lineman, having 3 more linebackers play off the line allowing them space to watch the beginning of the play and then shoot gaps, clogging the middle on throws, and worrying less about guessing correctly on the RPO's, and making Lamar throw to the edges.  

 

I keep thinking we have Tre White, and do you put him on Brown all-day? Because it's Brown in my opinion that makes plays when Lamar escapes on broken plays. 

 

Doesn't this lead us really to playing all 11 people closer to the line and taking the chance that the Ravens are not going to hit deep throws that much?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Those were the only 300 yard passing games the Ravens gave up all year so they look like aberrations*.  Also, the Chiefs and Browns ran for over 100 yards in those games.  

 

The Rams and 49ers are also top passing defenses.  We gained more air yards on them than any team this season.  We were only the 7th highest in passing yards vs. Picksburgh.  

 

I don't know what any of this means but thought it was intersting.

 

*Stat from pro football reference for passing yards allowed includes sack yardage.  Interestingly enough, these numbers do not tie to the offensive totals per PFR.  If we look at Bills v Rams, they are credited with 274 yards passing defense but Allen has 311 passing yards when adjusted for sacks.  

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/2020.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

thanks— good stuff! 
 

i forgot, but I would Add that Watson had 275 yards. 
 

what makes it tough to figure out is that the ravens really didn’t play any elite QB’s, other than Mahomes and Watson. (I don’t think Mayfield is elite, and I do truly believe that game was a total Aberration for everyone— it was l the most insane game of the year). 

[Big Turk]

I actually like our chances a lot in this game...a lot more after looking at the metrics and stats.

 

Ravens blitz the most in the NFL at 44.1% but are only 11th in pressure rate(24.0%), 20th in QB Hurry rate(9.1%) and only have 39 sacks, 14th in the NFL, 1 more than the Bills, although the Bills have an edge in sack rate(6.6% to 6.5%). What this says is they blitz a lot but don't get there very often and even worse, force QBs to hurry their throws even less.  This is basically what the Dolphins did and they got smoked.  Baltimore has good corners, so did Miami and so did the Rams. That isn't going to help them if they think they can rely on that to stop Allen. 

 

These are the types of games the Bills basically go off on offense and put up huge passing yardage totals.  If the Bills can get up big early the Ravens are in a lot of trouble, similar to what happened against the Chiefs, who torched their man coverage.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Big Turk